Used to be relatively accurate within a slight margin of error either way; now it’s ‘1-24 inches of snow’ for my area depending on the model. WTF? Are we collectively dumber at this or has weather changed to the point where it’s widly unpredictable? And it’s always predications on the extreme end to be honest. I’m sure grocery chains love it.
Did you actually go outside, shake your fist, and yell at the cloud ... or was it figurative, this time?
We got a huge snow storm earlier this winter in the Boston area ... in fact, much of that snow is still on the ground thanks to the continual cold ... and I remember the lead up to it ... it was days and days away from potential impact, and they showed the radar ... the storm hadn't even formed yet, but they were able to predict it was going to exist, it was going to cross the entire nation (starting in Cali), and it was going to be a huge snow producer days later in New England.
That's pretty advanced.
The obvious issue is that there are so many variables in play in determining if things will form at all, which direction they'll go, etc. ...
So, yes, it was quite frustrating this time when, days ago, they were saying the Euro model was consistently predicting the storm to go offshore enough to have no impact on us at all, and the GFS was wavering so much, that it would predict 3", then a couple hours later 14" then back to 4" ... that our local weather folks initially said they were quite confident there would be either no impact, or a light (a few inches) impact on us, only to have them, a couple days later say "oh, now we're likely to get about 6" and then, out of "nowhere," we're now expected to get up to 24" of snow with 60 mph winds ... but, at the same time, it's impressive what they're actually able to track and analyze.
The legendary Blizzard of 78 was so impactful up this way (I wasn't here for it) because they basically had no forewarning. Now we can see things that don't even exist forming a full week ahead of time, even if they can't always nail intensity/path due to many uncertain variables at play.
At least up this way in Boston, I don't remember this supposed Xanadu period where they were accurately predicting things to an almost certainty. It's always been a situation where you stayed aware of potential issues, and just monitored for likely adjustments. For as long as I can remember, there have been many possible big storms that fizzled out, storms that were supposed to miss, but suddenly hit and other weather surprises.
My favorite over the last few years is standing at a baseball game, being rained on ... and checking the weather apps and seeing not a cloud in the sky within 50 miles. It's happened at least 10 times over the course of 10+ years.
