That’s a bummer for Rutgers, but I’m pretty sure you’re the only poster here who thinks about it, Matter.
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Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeding Review: 2026
- Thread starter RoarLions1
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That’s a bummer for Rutgers, but I’m pretty sure you’re the only poster here who thinks about it, Matter.
Columbia is having a great year. Makes one wonder if Wisconsin or Rutgers would like a do over on coaching decisions.
I’ve known Donnie since he was in HS. He’s a quality person with a tremendous drive to be successful at every thing he does. I knew that he was going to be a top notch Coach the minute he started coaching. He’s doing a remarkable job at Columbia with a limited talent pool, due to the academic standards.
I am not going to debate the merits of the #1 and #2 wrestlers who both are undefeated. What I would advocate for is putting Davino and Byrd on the same side of the bracket. We know the outcome of Davino vs Blaze. We do not know the outcome of Byrd vs Davino. That should not happen in the finals. Putting Blaze and Davino on the same side of the bracket seems a disservice and lessens the importance of the regular season meeting. Of course, one could argue that Blaze and Byrd should be on the same side as well to prevent Blaze vs Davino round two potentially in the semifinals if they are put on the same side, but that is an almost impossible scenario to justify.
184
#1 Rocco Welsh (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Max McEnelly (MINN, 8-0)
#3 Angelo Ferrari (IOWA, 1-1)
#4 Silas Allred (NEB, 5-3)
#5 Chris Moore (ILL, 6-2)
#6 Brock Mantanona (MICH, 5-3)
#7 Dylan Fishback (tOSU, 4-4)
#8 Shane Cartagena-Walsh (RUT, 4-4)
#9 Sam Goin (IND, 4-4)
#10 James Rowley (PUR, 3-5)
#11 Jesse Perez (NW, 3-5)
#12 Sepanta Ahanj-Elias (MD, 1-6)
#13 Cale Anderson (WIS, 0-3)
#14 Ryan Boucher (MSU, 0-2)
Even before I began my research, a cursory look at 184 showed a couple of interesting situations that I would have to work through. Two undefeated guys at the top with nearly identical resumes for one, and a highly ranked wrestler with only two official conference duals, going 1-1 and not wrestling since January 16, 2026. Where would he end up? I love challenges!
Welsh (PSU) and McEnelly (MINN), both 8-0, are the two undefeated guys. A look at their body of work within the Big Ten uncovered few facts that separated them. Both beat Allred (NEB), Fishback (tOSU) and Cartegena-Welsh (RUT), so call that even. McEnelly also beat Moore (ILL) and current Iowa back-up Gabe Arnold, who is talented enough to be top 8 if he were Iowa’s starter. Welsh added highly ranked Ferrari (IOWA) to his win column, as well as Mantanona (MICH). I was facing an impasse. Both wrestlers had amazing seasons, wresting most of the top guys; no coasting for Welsh or McEnelly, but also little differentiation.
My slight lean from the beginning was Welsh, as the Ferrari win was the best win from among the two, but I wanted to exhaust all other avenues of research before saying it out loud. So it is #1 Welsh and #2 McEnelly, AND I’M SAYING IT OUT LOUD! It appears the criteria used by the Big Ten will show a similar order, with RPI and Coaches Ranking both in favor of Welsh, and most of the other criteria a wash.
One tough situation down, and another follows; what to do about Ferrari? He is 1-1 in official conference duals as noted in the first paragraph, with a win against my #13 seed and the close loss to #1 Welsh. What the heck does the Big Ten criteria model show? So pardon the detour as I take a sneak peek at the Big Ten criteria generally; FACT: Only HTH win is against my #13 seed, no help for Ferrari, and the HTH loss only hurts against Welsh who is already ahead in the seedings, so even split against most wrestlers. FACT: Record against Big Ten opponents is minimal (see below for a clarification as National Duals results MAY be used here). FACT: Conference dual record is 1-1, not much to go on and behind seven wrestlers which hurts Ferrari. FACT: He does have five quality wins from among the top 33 in the Coaches Ranking and will get points against most wrestlers here. FACT: He has no RPI, so anyone with an RPI gets these points. FACT: Solid Coaches Ranking, Ferrari gets the points. FACT: He will earn the Big Ten a conference allocation spot. My point in all of this is that a #3 seed is not obvious with the point system unless one does the math completely, and knowing if results outside official duals are used is a critical piece of knowledge. Ferrari beating both Moore and Fishback at the National Duals, would go a long way towards a high seed for Ferrari. Helpful in this case, but using results outside conference duals should be used all the time or not at all.
I used the Fishback and Moore HTH wins, both very good wins for Ferrari, and made him my #3 seed, but not until I took a look at my #4, #5, and #6 guys to see if anyone was worthy of a leap over Ferrari. No one was, as you will see. This worked out well, as even if Ferrari is not quite 100%, he could blow up a bracket depending on his seed.
#4 Allred gets the next seed by a nose, beating #7 Fishback and #5 Moore HTH. The Cornhusker also has a loss to Gabe Arnold and National Duals losses to Fishback and Mantanona. I put more weight on HTH results during official conference duals. #5 Moore, with a great 6-2 conference record is next after considering the HTH loss to Allred and a win against Mantanona. #6 Mantanona has a loss to Arnold, but beat #7 Fishback HTH so he fits next. #7 Fishback has HTH wins vs Arnold and Allred at the National Duals, a better resume than #8 Cartegena-Welsh. Cartegena-Welsh. Rutgers now has two wrestlers in the top 8 in the four weight classes reviewed thus far. Woohoo! (Just having fun)
It is #9 Goin (IND) with a HTH win over #10 Rowley (PUR), followed by #11 Perez (NW) next. Last are #13 Anderson (WIS) and #14 Boucher (MSU).
Some fun stuff going on with this weight class! By far 184 was the weight class which was the most time-consuming to review. While doing this review, I wondered several times about the Iowa situation. Not knowing the extent of Ferrari’s injury, it does give pause as to whether he goes at Big Ten’s. Then I recall some Penn State injuries of the past and how they played out. While Arnold (4-2 in Big Ten action) is a capable replacement, there is nothing on the airwaves that suggest Ferrari is not going.
#1 Rocco Welsh (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Max McEnelly (MINN, 8-0)
#3 Angelo Ferrari (IOWA, 1-1)
#4 Silas Allred (NEB, 5-3)
#5 Chris Moore (ILL, 6-2)
#6 Brock Mantanona (MICH, 5-3)
#7 Dylan Fishback (tOSU, 4-4)
#8 Shane Cartagena-Walsh (RUT, 4-4)
#9 Sam Goin (IND, 4-4)
#10 James Rowley (PUR, 3-5)
#11 Jesse Perez (NW, 3-5)
#12 Sepanta Ahanj-Elias (MD, 1-6)
#13 Cale Anderson (WIS, 0-3)
#14 Ryan Boucher (MSU, 0-2)
Even before I began my research, a cursory look at 184 showed a couple of interesting situations that I would have to work through. Two undefeated guys at the top with nearly identical resumes for one, and a highly ranked wrestler with only two official conference duals, going 1-1 and not wrestling since January 16, 2026. Where would he end up? I love challenges!
Welsh (PSU) and McEnelly (MINN), both 8-0, are the two undefeated guys. A look at their body of work within the Big Ten uncovered few facts that separated them. Both beat Allred (NEB), Fishback (tOSU) and Cartegena-Welsh (RUT), so call that even. McEnelly also beat Moore (ILL) and current Iowa back-up Gabe Arnold, who is talented enough to be top 8 if he were Iowa’s starter. Welsh added highly ranked Ferrari (IOWA) to his win column, as well as Mantanona (MICH). I was facing an impasse. Both wrestlers had amazing seasons, wresting most of the top guys; no coasting for Welsh or McEnelly, but also little differentiation.
My slight lean from the beginning was Welsh, as the Ferrari win was the best win from among the two, but I wanted to exhaust all other avenues of research before saying it out loud. So it is #1 Welsh and #2 McEnelly, AND I’M SAYING IT OUT LOUD! It appears the criteria used by the Big Ten will show a similar order, with RPI and Coaches Ranking both in favor of Welsh, and most of the other criteria a wash.
One tough situation down, and another follows; what to do about Ferrari? He is 1-1 in official conference duals as noted in the first paragraph, with a win against my #13 seed and the close loss to #1 Welsh. What the heck does the Big Ten criteria model show? So pardon the detour as I take a sneak peek at the Big Ten criteria generally; FACT: Only HTH win is against my #13 seed, no help for Ferrari, and the HTH loss only hurts against Welsh who is already ahead in the seedings, so even split against most wrestlers. FACT: Record against Big Ten opponents is minimal (see below for a clarification as National Duals results MAY be used here). FACT: Conference dual record is 1-1, not much to go on and behind seven wrestlers which hurts Ferrari. FACT: He does have five quality wins from among the top 33 in the Coaches Ranking and will get points against most wrestlers here. FACT: He has no RPI, so anyone with an RPI gets these points. FACT: Solid Coaches Ranking, Ferrari gets the points. FACT: He will earn the Big Ten a conference allocation spot. My point in all of this is that a #3 seed is not obvious with the point system unless one does the math completely, and knowing if results outside official duals are used is a critical piece of knowledge. Ferrari beating both Moore and Fishback at the National Duals, would go a long way towards a high seed for Ferrari. Helpful in this case, but using results outside conference duals should be used all the time or not at all.
I used the Fishback and Moore HTH wins, both very good wins for Ferrari, and made him my #3 seed, but not until I took a look at my #4, #5, and #6 guys to see if anyone was worthy of a leap over Ferrari. No one was, as you will see. This worked out well, as even if Ferrari is not quite 100%, he could blow up a bracket depending on his seed.
#4 Allred gets the next seed by a nose, beating #7 Fishback and #5 Moore HTH. The Cornhusker also has a loss to Gabe Arnold and National Duals losses to Fishback and Mantanona. I put more weight on HTH results during official conference duals. #5 Moore, with a great 6-2 conference record is next after considering the HTH loss to Allred and a win against Mantanona. #6 Mantanona has a loss to Arnold, but beat #7 Fishback HTH so he fits next. #7 Fishback has HTH wins vs Arnold and Allred at the National Duals, a better resume than #8 Cartegena-Welsh. Cartegena-Welsh. Rutgers now has two wrestlers in the top 8 in the four weight classes reviewed thus far. Woohoo! (Just having fun)
It is #9 Goin (IND) with a HTH win over #10 Rowley (PUR), followed by #11 Perez (NW) next. Last are #13 Anderson (WIS) and #14 Boucher (MSU).
Some fun stuff going on with this weight class! By far 184 was the weight class which was the most time-consuming to review. While doing this review, I wondered several times about the Iowa situation. Not knowing the extent of Ferrari’s injury, it does give pause as to whether he goes at Big Ten’s. Then I recall some Penn State injuries of the past and how they played out. While Arnold (4-2 in Big Ten action) is a capable replacement, there is nothing on the airwaves that suggest Ferrari is not going.
Arnold is 4-2 in B10 duals at 184, beat Allred and Mantanona. Losses were to McEnelly and Fishback.
Not using B10 seeding criteria: guessing he'd be the 3 ahead of Allred. And that's more justifiable than Ferrari because he actually wrestled 6 of the 8 duals at the weight. (Not intended as a shot at Roar's seeding -- I'd make Ferrari the 3 as well because he's the 3rd best guy. IMO the only other justifiable seed for him is the 6 -- i.e., don't punish the rest of the bracket when this is a qualifying event.)
BTW, 184 (Ferrari) and HWT (Luffman) are glaringly obvious reasons why B10 should've provided full transparency about its seeding criteria.
"Conference Dual Record" is 20% of the seeding scoring. Nobody knows how that 20% is judged, if the points can be split, and how the points would be split.
Ferrari also didn't qualify for an RPI (10%). So one could argue he'd lose 30 points of the seeding criteria to everybody in Roar's top 8 above, and 20 points to the top 11 above. That would blow up the bracket. And that point is plausible only because B10 did not publicly define its criteria in any measurable way.
"Conference Dual Record" is 20% of the seeding scoring. Nobody knows how that 20% is judged, if the points can be split, and how the points would be split.
Ferrari also didn't qualify for an RPI (10%). So one could argue he'd lose 30 points of the seeding criteria to everybody in Roar's top 8 above, and 20 points to the top 11 above. That would blow up the bracket. And that point is plausible only because B10 did not publicly define its criteria in any measurable way.
If Ferrari does not wrestle tomorrow, he should drop out of coaches tanking this week because he has not wrestled in 30 days. That also would prevent him for obtaining an allocation.
The problem is Penn State has become so dominant the Big10 has put Cael in charge of information release to the public.
That would suck for at least one out of Cartagena-Walsh, Goin, and Rowley. Because if Ferrari wrestles at B10s without an AQ, then he's stealing somebody else's spot. Goin and Rowley especially, they're on thin ice to be At Larges.
141
#1 Jesse Mendez (tOSU, 8-0)
#2 Brock Hardy (NEB, 6-1)
#3 Vance Vombaur (MINN, 7-1)
#4 Dylan Ragusin (MICH, 6-2)
#5 Nasir Bailey (IOWA, 1-2)
#6 Braeden Davis (PSU, 4-3)
#7 Joey Olivieri (RUT, 0-0)
#8 Billy Dekraker (NW, 4-3)
#9 Greyson Clark (PUR, 4-0)
#10 Henry Porter (IND, 4-2)
#11 Danny Pucino (ILL, 1-1)
#12 Dario Lemus (MD, 1-5)
#13 Jaden Crumpler (MSU, 0-3)
#14 Carson Exferd (WIS, 0-7)
#1 Mendez (tOSU) dominated 141, winning all of his conference duals by bonus, including against #2 Hardy (NEB) and #3 Vombaur (MINN). He is definitely one of the top three wrestlers in the college ranks right now, and a huge favorite to win both Big Ten’s and a third consecutive NCAA title. Hardy and Vombaur had comparable results, both losing only to Mendez. Hardy got my nod for the higher seed based on his ranking and RPI, as little else separated them.
#4 Ragusin (MICH), with a good 6-2 record in the Big Ten is next, with losses to Mendez and Penn State’s talented back-up Nate Desmond, but no great wins. The Ragusin seed wasn’t settled on quickly, and would be cleaner had Davis (PSU) and the Wolverine wrestled at the dual, winner gets the #4 seed. But alas, that didn’t happen. As Davis’ best win is against Porter (IND), I didn’t feel it was near enough to jump over Ragusin. To complicate matters, it appears Bailey (IOWA) is back as starter for Iowa after a three week absence, replacing Kale Petersen who has wrestled in Iowa’s last four conference duals. This matters here, as Bailey defeated Davis HTH, the Hawkeye’s only Big Ten win. Bailey’s two losses don’t hurt as they are to #2 Hardy and #3 Vombaur, good losses if there is such a thing. I am going #5 Bailey and #6 Davis after considering the HTH result and the fact that seeds #7 and lower do not have the resumes to get seeded higher. Frankly, 141 appears to be one of the Big Ten’s weakest top to bottom, with little firepower except near the top.
My next task was to find a place for Olivieri (RUT). No Big Ten bouts, in or out of conference action, but 15-0 on the season means he will have an RPI to go with the Coaches Ranking. He surely will earn the Big Ten an allocation spot too, and it appears he has three or four wins against the top-33 in the Coaches Ranking. A #14 seed and watching him blow up a bracket isn’t the answer, neither is the #7 seed, or so I thought. The Porter (IND) loss to Clark (PUR) at the final Big Ten dual of the season spoiled my plan and mucked up (technical term) the next few seeds. Clark was #32 in the Coaches Ranking, the 11th ranked Big Ten wrestler in that ranking, but he is 4-0 in Big Ten action, with the HTH win over Porter. Dekraker (NW) has a non-conference win over Clark, which would only be used to break close calls. I will use it here. Porter has no good wins, only beating two subs and two conference guys with a combined 1-12 record. After the loss to Clark, Porter is dropped three places from my plans before the Indiana vs Purdue dual.
When said and done, I’m going #7 Olivieri, #8 Dekraker, #9 Clark and #10 Porter using the results noted above, with a disclaimer that Dekraker and Clark could be switched. Doesn't matter as #8 vs #9 is a first round bout.
Still not done, another challenge awaits. Pucino (ILL) has two conference duals, going 1-1. His win, HTH vs Crumpler (MSU) and loss HTH to #3 Vombaur do not help. In the bigger picture, Pucino only has nine bouts total on the season, so he is a wildcard on the national scene too. Still, it is enough to be my #11 seed. The final three are #12 Lemus (MD) with one conference win, albeit against a back-up, #13 Crumpler (MSU) and #14 Exferd (WIS).
Wow, this weight class had everything. The most complicating fact is that starters only wrestled in 69% of their duals, or 5.5 (on average) out of 8. Four guys had three or fewer bouts! This is by far the lowest of any weight class. At the other end of this spectrum are 149 and 197, both averaging 7.1 (on average) of a possible 8 bouts per starter. That’s a huge difference.
Another situation not carved in stone it appears, is who is going for Iowa. We may get a clue from tomorrow’s Iowa vs Oklahoma State match-up, but even if Bailey does not go we could still see him at Big Ten’s.
#1 Jesse Mendez (tOSU, 8-0)
#2 Brock Hardy (NEB, 6-1)
#3 Vance Vombaur (MINN, 7-1)
#4 Dylan Ragusin (MICH, 6-2)
#5 Nasir Bailey (IOWA, 1-2)
#6 Braeden Davis (PSU, 4-3)
#7 Joey Olivieri (RUT, 0-0)
#8 Billy Dekraker (NW, 4-3)
#9 Greyson Clark (PUR, 4-0)
#10 Henry Porter (IND, 4-2)
#11 Danny Pucino (ILL, 1-1)
#12 Dario Lemus (MD, 1-5)
#13 Jaden Crumpler (MSU, 0-3)
#14 Carson Exferd (WIS, 0-7)
#1 Mendez (tOSU) dominated 141, winning all of his conference duals by bonus, including against #2 Hardy (NEB) and #3 Vombaur (MINN). He is definitely one of the top three wrestlers in the college ranks right now, and a huge favorite to win both Big Ten’s and a third consecutive NCAA title. Hardy and Vombaur had comparable results, both losing only to Mendez. Hardy got my nod for the higher seed based on his ranking and RPI, as little else separated them.
#4 Ragusin (MICH), with a good 6-2 record in the Big Ten is next, with losses to Mendez and Penn State’s talented back-up Nate Desmond, but no great wins. The Ragusin seed wasn’t settled on quickly, and would be cleaner had Davis (PSU) and the Wolverine wrestled at the dual, winner gets the #4 seed. But alas, that didn’t happen. As Davis’ best win is against Porter (IND), I didn’t feel it was near enough to jump over Ragusin. To complicate matters, it appears Bailey (IOWA) is back as starter for Iowa after a three week absence, replacing Kale Petersen who has wrestled in Iowa’s last four conference duals. This matters here, as Bailey defeated Davis HTH, the Hawkeye’s only Big Ten win. Bailey’s two losses don’t hurt as they are to #2 Hardy and #3 Vombaur, good losses if there is such a thing. I am going #5 Bailey and #6 Davis after considering the HTH result and the fact that seeds #7 and lower do not have the resumes to get seeded higher. Frankly, 141 appears to be one of the Big Ten’s weakest top to bottom, with little firepower except near the top.
My next task was to find a place for Olivieri (RUT). No Big Ten bouts, in or out of conference action, but 15-0 on the season means he will have an RPI to go with the Coaches Ranking. He surely will earn the Big Ten an allocation spot too, and it appears he has three or four wins against the top-33 in the Coaches Ranking. A #14 seed and watching him blow up a bracket isn’t the answer, neither is the #7 seed, or so I thought. The Porter (IND) loss to Clark (PUR) at the final Big Ten dual of the season spoiled my plan and mucked up (technical term) the next few seeds. Clark was #32 in the Coaches Ranking, the 11th ranked Big Ten wrestler in that ranking, but he is 4-0 in Big Ten action, with the HTH win over Porter. Dekraker (NW) has a non-conference win over Clark, which would only be used to break close calls. I will use it here. Porter has no good wins, only beating two subs and two conference guys with a combined 1-12 record. After the loss to Clark, Porter is dropped three places from my plans before the Indiana vs Purdue dual.
When said and done, I’m going #7 Olivieri, #8 Dekraker, #9 Clark and #10 Porter using the results noted above, with a disclaimer that Dekraker and Clark could be switched. Doesn't matter as #8 vs #9 is a first round bout.
Still not done, another challenge awaits. Pucino (ILL) has two conference duals, going 1-1. His win, HTH vs Crumpler (MSU) and loss HTH to #3 Vombaur do not help. In the bigger picture, Pucino only has nine bouts total on the season, so he is a wildcard on the national scene too. Still, it is enough to be my #11 seed. The final three are #12 Lemus (MD) with one conference win, albeit against a back-up, #13 Crumpler (MSU) and #14 Exferd (WIS).
Wow, this weight class had everything. The most complicating fact is that starters only wrestled in 69% of their duals, or 5.5 (on average) out of 8. Four guys had three or fewer bouts! This is by far the lowest of any weight class. At the other end of this spectrum are 149 and 197, both averaging 7.1 (on average) of a possible 8 bouts per starter. That’s a huge difference.
Another situation not carved in stone it appears, is who is going for Iowa. We may get a clue from tomorrow’s Iowa vs Oklahoma State match-up, but even if Bailey does not go we could still see him at Big Ten’s.
Adding onto this: if Petersen goes for Iowa, he's 3-2 in B10 duals. Lost to Mendez and Ragusin; beat Exferd and backups for Purdue and Sparty. He's 10-3, cannot get an RPI. Am guessing he would get a Top 30 coaches' rank if Brands names him the starter in time (where have we heard that before?). He has beaten one AQ, Navy's Riccardi.
Guessing Petersen would be somewhere in the 7-10 range. This would move Davis up to 5, and as much as I'd prefer him out of Mendez's side, Ragusin is probably a better quarters draw than Vombaur. So I guess I'm mostly OK with this scenario.
157
#1 Brandon Cannon (tOSU, 2-0)
#2 Antrell Taylor (NEB, 8-0)
#3 P.J. Duke (PSU 7-1)
#4 Sam Catrabone (MICH, 6-2)
#5 Charlie Millard (MINN, 5-3)
#6 Kannon Webster (ILL, 4-2)
#7 Anthony White (RUT, 5-2)
#8 Luke Mechler (WIS, 5-3)
#9 Stoney Buell (PUR, 3-4)
#10 Bryce Lowery (IND, 3-5)
#11 Victor Voinovich (IOWA, 3-0)
#12 Darius Marines (MSU, 2-6)
#13 Gunnar Myers (NW, 1-5)
#14 Mekhi Neal (MD, 1-4)
Now that the Indiana vs Purdue match is over, I have all the conference results to compare. Hopefully it is not surprising to many of you that my #1 seed is Brandon Cannon (tOSU), with only two official conference dual wins. Despite #2 Taylor (NEB) having the unblemished record in official conference duals at 8-0, Cannon thumped Taylor in mid-November during the National Duals by major decision. Cannon’s two official conference dual results were solid but not spectacular HTH wins over Millard (MINN) and Lowery (IND). Still, the Taylor victory, even if we have to go outside of "official" Big Ten dual results, stands-out and earns Cannon a top seed in a situation that is rare; a wrestler with only two official conference dual bouts gets a #1 seed. I'm sure I never did this before. #2 Taylor has a HTH win over #3 Duke (PSU), so the second and third seeds are easy ones. I’m looking forward to a Duke/Taylor rematch in the semifinals, assuming it happens!
Webster (ILL), Catrabone (MICH), Millard (MINN), Mechler (WIS) and White (RUT) are all bunched together; records differentiated by a win here or a loss there, but certainly close enough to deep dive into the individual results. Voinovich (IOWA), at 3-0, it appears, has replaced Jordan Williams (1-4 in Big Ten duals) as the Iowa starter, so he is also in the discussion. This is going to be messy, I can tell already.
I will start with Catrabone as he has the best record from among this group at 6-2. A close HTH loss to Duke doesn’t hurt, but the Mechler loss does in a way. Catrabone’s best win is HTH over White, but the remaining five are to three back-ups and two guys seeded 12th or lower. White has the loss to Catrabone and Webster with a single decent win HTH over Millard. Millard won HTH against Webster and Mechler, but losing to White. Webster has a HTH win over White to go with the loss to Millard. Mechler has the Catrabone win, but losses to Millard and White, plus another loss to Williams who is not in this group. Voinovich is 3-0, with wins against a back-up and no wins against anyone seeded in the top 9. Based on the facts, I will set aside Mechler and Voinovich as outliers in this group, to be seeded later. This leaves Catrabone, White, Webster and Millard. It also leaves lots of confounding results, as none of the four stand out in this group. By the slightest of margins, I’m going #4 Catrabone (1-0 vs the other three), #5 Millard (1-1 vs the other three, plus a HTH win over #6 Webster), #6 Webster (1-1 vs the other three), and #7 White (0-1 vs the other three). The Mechler HTH win over Catrabone, mentioned earlier, is the one result that made the #4 through #9 seeds a challenge. In the end, Mechler’s HTH losses to Williams (the Hawkeye’s only Big Ten win) and Lowery (IND, 3-5) did him in, and once removed, the seeds were a bit cleaner.
Another transitive property failure followed, with Buell (PUR) beating Lowery, Lowery beating Mechler and Mechler beating Buell, round and round we go. The best win belongs to Mechler, HTH over Millard, so I’m going #8 Mechler, and #9 Buell with a HTH win over #10 Lowery. Here I will insert #11 Voinovich. Rounding out the 14 wrestlers are; #12 Marines (MSU), #13 Myers (NW) and #14 Neal (MD).
In the overall scheme, this weight class was middle-of-the-road for me to seed. A single mat result caused me to look at the data much more closely, costing a good bit of time. Without that result, the seeds could have been done and documented in about the same amount of time as 149, my pick for easiest to seed so far. The Voinovich addition, and Williams’ removal, may or may not be the final choice by the Iowa staff, we will see.
#1 Brandon Cannon (tOSU, 2-0)
#2 Antrell Taylor (NEB, 8-0)
#3 P.J. Duke (PSU 7-1)
#4 Sam Catrabone (MICH, 6-2)
#5 Charlie Millard (MINN, 5-3)
#6 Kannon Webster (ILL, 4-2)
#7 Anthony White (RUT, 5-2)
#8 Luke Mechler (WIS, 5-3)
#9 Stoney Buell (PUR, 3-4)
#10 Bryce Lowery (IND, 3-5)
#11 Victor Voinovich (IOWA, 3-0)
#12 Darius Marines (MSU, 2-6)
#13 Gunnar Myers (NW, 1-5)
#14 Mekhi Neal (MD, 1-4)
Now that the Indiana vs Purdue match is over, I have all the conference results to compare. Hopefully it is not surprising to many of you that my #1 seed is Brandon Cannon (tOSU), with only two official conference dual wins. Despite #2 Taylor (NEB) having the unblemished record in official conference duals at 8-0, Cannon thumped Taylor in mid-November during the National Duals by major decision. Cannon’s two official conference dual results were solid but not spectacular HTH wins over Millard (MINN) and Lowery (IND). Still, the Taylor victory, even if we have to go outside of "official" Big Ten dual results, stands-out and earns Cannon a top seed in a situation that is rare; a wrestler with only two official conference dual bouts gets a #1 seed. I'm sure I never did this before. #2 Taylor has a HTH win over #3 Duke (PSU), so the second and third seeds are easy ones. I’m looking forward to a Duke/Taylor rematch in the semifinals, assuming it happens!
Webster (ILL), Catrabone (MICH), Millard (MINN), Mechler (WIS) and White (RUT) are all bunched together; records differentiated by a win here or a loss there, but certainly close enough to deep dive into the individual results. Voinovich (IOWA), at 3-0, it appears, has replaced Jordan Williams (1-4 in Big Ten duals) as the Iowa starter, so he is also in the discussion. This is going to be messy, I can tell already.
I will start with Catrabone as he has the best record from among this group at 6-2. A close HTH loss to Duke doesn’t hurt, but the Mechler loss does in a way. Catrabone’s best win is HTH over White, but the remaining five are to three back-ups and two guys seeded 12th or lower. White has the loss to Catrabone and Webster with a single decent win HTH over Millard. Millard won HTH against Webster and Mechler, but losing to White. Webster has a HTH win over White to go with the loss to Millard. Mechler has the Catrabone win, but losses to Millard and White, plus another loss to Williams who is not in this group. Voinovich is 3-0, with wins against a back-up and no wins against anyone seeded in the top 9. Based on the facts, I will set aside Mechler and Voinovich as outliers in this group, to be seeded later. This leaves Catrabone, White, Webster and Millard. It also leaves lots of confounding results, as none of the four stand out in this group. By the slightest of margins, I’m going #4 Catrabone (1-0 vs the other three), #5 Millard (1-1 vs the other three, plus a HTH win over #6 Webster), #6 Webster (1-1 vs the other three), and #7 White (0-1 vs the other three). The Mechler HTH win over Catrabone, mentioned earlier, is the one result that made the #4 through #9 seeds a challenge. In the end, Mechler’s HTH losses to Williams (the Hawkeye’s only Big Ten win) and Lowery (IND, 3-5) did him in, and once removed, the seeds were a bit cleaner.
Another transitive property failure followed, with Buell (PUR) beating Lowery, Lowery beating Mechler and Mechler beating Buell, round and round we go. The best win belongs to Mechler, HTH over Millard, so I’m going #8 Mechler, and #9 Buell with a HTH win over #10 Lowery. Here I will insert #11 Voinovich. Rounding out the 14 wrestlers are; #12 Marines (MSU), #13 Myers (NW) and #14 Neal (MD).
In the overall scheme, this weight class was middle-of-the-road for me to seed. A single mat result caused me to look at the data much more closely, costing a good bit of time. Without that result, the seeds could have been done and documented in about the same amount of time as 149, my pick for easiest to seed so far. The Voinovich addition, and Williams’ removal, may or may not be the final choice by the Iowa staff, we will see.
I get the decisive decision Cannon has over Taylor, but showing up should count for something. Injury or Zekeing out makes no difference in my mind, both undefeated in conference one 8-0 and the other 2-0. The 8-0 in my opinion had the better Big10 season.
Betcha Cannon does not finish the tournament, he will get what he needs to do an injury default out.
Agreed, wrestlers should not be getting rewarded for missing matches.. something in the rules needs to be tweaked.. it’s getting more beneficial just to miss as many matches until post season.
Taylor will be one, bank on it. Returning National Champ vs. only 2 competitions (even if he beat Taylor).
Edit was told by Jason Bryant it's Jan 24 so Cannon wont allocate.
He competed within the 30 day window. The season ends today . Jan 23 is the last day that will be counted
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The benefit of this version of the bracket is that PJ will get to beat both Cannon and Taylor to gain the #1 seed at the National tournament!
Well, maybe.
We haven't done the B10 seeding math, and that's pointless because B10 has not provided any specifics on how categories will be judged and split.
Also, we do not know if the coaches have the authority to adjust the seeds after the equations are run. At NCAAs, seeds can be adjusted +/- 3 spots (as we saw with Carter getting demoted from 7 to 9). I'd think B10 would allow a smaller adjustment, but again, not known if any is permissible.
I am wrong plenty. Not human if I weren't.
For 18 years, HTH has meant more to me than all other results. It CAN be offset with poor losses and the like, but I stand by my seeds regardless of what the Big Ten does. At the end of the day, we will both agree and disagree, but historically I've been close to the B1G seeds. Otherwise I would have given up on this time-consuming adventure. So here I am still kickin' after what is approaching two decades. This is just for fun, and I try to make my case in black & white on these close calls. No biggie to me if the Big Ten has it differently, it's just for kicks, and fun to do!
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125
#1 Luke Lilledahl (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Nic Bouzakis (tOSU, 5-1)
#3 Dean Peterson (IOWA, 3-2)
#4 Spencer Moore (ILL, 7-0)
#5 Jacob Moran (IND, 5-3)
#6 Jore Volk (MINN, 6-2)
#7 Ayden Smith (RUT, 5-3)
#8 Nicolar Rivera (WIS, 5-3)
#9 Dedrick Navarro (NW, 4-3)
#10 Diego Sotelo (MICH, 1-6)
#11 Kael Lauridson (NEB, 1-4)
#12 Nick Corday (MSU, 1-7)
#13 Ashton Jackson (PUR, 1-6)
#14 Abram Cline (MD, 0-5)
#1 seed Lilledahl (PSU), at 8-0, is one of two undefeated wrestlers in official Big Ten duals, but is the easy choice for the top spot given wins over #2 Bouzakis (tOSU) and #3 Peterson (IOWA). Bouzakis’ only loss is to Lilledahl. Peterson’s only losses are to Lilledahl and Bouzakis. #4 Moore (ILL), 7-0 in conference duals, is also undefeated in official Big Ten action, but gets leapfrogged by both Bouzakis and Peterson. The Bouzakis decision was an easy one, while the Peterson decision was a bit harder. Moore’s best win is HTH vs #5 Moran (IND), which alone would not be enough. Losing to Peterson at the National Duals WAS enough, but a deep dive into Moore’s wins gave additional evidence. Aside from the Moran win Moore beat five of the six lowest seeds at 125 and had one forfeit, hardly enough to keep a 3-2 wrestler from overtaking him.
A log jam, similar to that of other weight classes near this spot in the seeding process, was apparent as I started researching the next few seeds. Volk (MINN, 6-2), Moran (IND, 5-3), Rivera (WIS, 5-3), Navarro (NW, 4-3) and Smith (MD, 5-3) had similar records and required a peak below the surface. What I found actually wasn’t all that difficult to unravel. Within this group #5 Moran stood out with a best HTH win vs Rivera and all three losses to guys seeded top 4. #6 Volk (MINN) slotted next with a HTH win over Rivera, but a loss to Smith and the Ohio State back-up Vince Kilkeary pushing him behind Moran. #7 Smith had a slightly better resume than #8 Rivera, as the Volk HTH win was one of Smith’s big positives while Rivera was losing to three of the four guys in this mini-group; Volk, Moran and Navarro. #9 Navarro is the only wrestler in this small group to beat two of the others, defeating both Smith and Rivera HTH. That was a solid result, comparison-wise, but the loss side of the ledger showed HTH defeats at the hands of Sotelo (MICH) and Lauridson (NEB) in conference duals, plus Kilkeary and Corday at the MSU Open. Those last two results were not necessary to move Navarro to #9, but they do cement the case.
#10 Sotelo gets the nod with a HTH win over #11 Lauridson. #12 Corday has a HTH win over #13 Jackson. #14 Cline is winless in the Big Ten.
125 was the second easiest to seed thus far. Putting a 7-0 guy fourth was a tough decision, but I believe the facts support it. At the very least I know my #1 seed is accurate!
#1 Luke Lilledahl (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Nic Bouzakis (tOSU, 5-1)
#3 Dean Peterson (IOWA, 3-2)
#4 Spencer Moore (ILL, 7-0)
#5 Jacob Moran (IND, 5-3)
#6 Jore Volk (MINN, 6-2)
#7 Ayden Smith (RUT, 5-3)
#8 Nicolar Rivera (WIS, 5-3)
#9 Dedrick Navarro (NW, 4-3)
#10 Diego Sotelo (MICH, 1-6)
#11 Kael Lauridson (NEB, 1-4)
#12 Nick Corday (MSU, 1-7)
#13 Ashton Jackson (PUR, 1-6)
#14 Abram Cline (MD, 0-5)
#1 seed Lilledahl (PSU), at 8-0, is one of two undefeated wrestlers in official Big Ten duals, but is the easy choice for the top spot given wins over #2 Bouzakis (tOSU) and #3 Peterson (IOWA). Bouzakis’ only loss is to Lilledahl. Peterson’s only losses are to Lilledahl and Bouzakis. #4 Moore (ILL), 7-0 in conference duals, is also undefeated in official Big Ten action, but gets leapfrogged by both Bouzakis and Peterson. The Bouzakis decision was an easy one, while the Peterson decision was a bit harder. Moore’s best win is HTH vs #5 Moran (IND), which alone would not be enough. Losing to Peterson at the National Duals WAS enough, but a deep dive into Moore’s wins gave additional evidence. Aside from the Moran win Moore beat five of the six lowest seeds at 125 and had one forfeit, hardly enough to keep a 3-2 wrestler from overtaking him.
A log jam, similar to that of other weight classes near this spot in the seeding process, was apparent as I started researching the next few seeds. Volk (MINN, 6-2), Moran (IND, 5-3), Rivera (WIS, 5-3), Navarro (NW, 4-3) and Smith (MD, 5-3) had similar records and required a peak below the surface. What I found actually wasn’t all that difficult to unravel. Within this group #5 Moran stood out with a best HTH win vs Rivera and all three losses to guys seeded top 4. #6 Volk (MINN) slotted next with a HTH win over Rivera, but a loss to Smith and the Ohio State back-up Vince Kilkeary pushing him behind Moran. #7 Smith had a slightly better resume than #8 Rivera, as the Volk HTH win was one of Smith’s big positives while Rivera was losing to three of the four guys in this mini-group; Volk, Moran and Navarro. #9 Navarro is the only wrestler in this small group to beat two of the others, defeating both Smith and Rivera HTH. That was a solid result, comparison-wise, but the loss side of the ledger showed HTH defeats at the hands of Sotelo (MICH) and Lauridson (NEB) in conference duals, plus Kilkeary and Corday at the MSU Open. Those last two results were not necessary to move Navarro to #9, but they do cement the case.
#10 Sotelo gets the nod with a HTH win over #11 Lauridson. #12 Corday has a HTH win over #13 Jackson. #14 Cline is winless in the Big Ten.
125 was the second easiest to seed thus far. Putting a 7-0 guy fourth was a tough decision, but I believe the facts support it. At the very least I know my #1 seed is accurate!
174
#1 Levi Haines (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Patrick Kennedy (IOWA, 6-1)
#3 Christopher Minto (NEB, 6-2)
#4 Carson Kharchla (tOSU, 4-2)
#5 Beau Montanona (MICH, 6-2)
#6 Eddie Enright (NW, 4-3)
#7 Derek Gilcher (IND, 3-3)
#8 Brody Baumann (PUR, 3-2)
#9 Ethan Riddle (MINN, 4-4)
#10 Colin Kelly (ILL, 4-4)
#11 Lenny Pinto (RUT, 2-3)
#12 Lucas Condon (WIS, 2-6)
#13 Connor O’Neill (MSU, 0-7)
#14 Seth Digby (MD, 0-8)
Standing atop the Big Ten standings is easy #1 seed Levi Haines. Haines has HTH wins over Minto (NEB) and Mantanona (MICH) to his credit. It didn’t take long for this weight class to go into deep dive mode for me, as Kennedy (IOWA), Minto (NEB), Kharchla (tOSU) and Mantanona (MICH) were the obvious next four. The order was far less obvious. In the national rankings most have Kennedy, Minto and Kharchla clustered together with Mantanona slightly lower, and the Big Ten seeds are equally close. We’ll see where the data takes us.
This did not take as long as I thought it would. #2 Kennedy has the better resume with only one conference loss, to Mantanona, and great wins over #4 Kharchla and #3 Minto. The cherry on top is a National Duals win over Kharchla, as the Hawkeye goes 2-0 vs the Buckeye on the season so far. #3 Minto split with Kharchla on the season, winning at the conference dual while losing at the National Duals, the conference dual carrying more weight. He also beat Mantanona at the National Duals, which wasn’t needed to tie-break any of the seeds, just thought I’d mention it. That leaves #5 Mantanona from this “group of 4”. While Mantanona has the great win HTH vs Kennedy, he also has the HTH loss to Kharchla and a National Duals loss to Minto. It should be mentioned that these guys beat up on each other, and none had losses to anyone seeded after them. To be honest, this worked out perfectly, despite a transitive property rebuttal, as Mantanona beat Kennedy, Kennedy beat Kharchla and Kharchla beat Mantanona.
The next five seeds would come from the likes of Enright (NW), Gilcher (IND) Baumann (PUR) Riddle (MINN) and Kelly (ILL). I started looking for differentiation, one guy at a time that stood out from the others. None did. Enright had the best record, and a best HTH win against Pinto (RUT). He had no bad losses in conference action, only losing to the top seeds. Enright does have an out-of-conference loss to Gilcher (Midlands), but the HTH action within conference duals is enough, my #6 seed is Enright. #7 Gilcher has a HTH win over #8 Baumann, plus the good out-of-conference win over Enright. The Enright win wasn’t needed but did give me a bit more confidence in the seeds. Baumann’s best win was HTH over Pinto, and only losses to guys seeded higher. So far, so good. #9 Riddle gets the nod next as I wrap up this “group of five”, with a HTH win over #10 Kelly.
#11 Pinto has an argument to be seeded higher, with a win over Riddle, but losses to Enright and Baumann to go with a 2-3 record just wasn’t enough. #12 Condon (WIS) with two conference wins, #13 O’Neill (MSU), and #14 Digby (MD) wrap up this weight class.
Having two small groups to work through (seeds #2 to 5, and 6 to 10) caused extra time for this weight class, but the HTH results were not all that difficult to get through. Haines, while going undefeated with five tech falls and a pin among his eight wins in conference duals, had a tough bout with Minto (8-6) at the BJC this year, and he had to come from behind vs Kharchla last season. Kennedy, who I feel on paper is the best of Minto, Kharchla and himself, was handled three times last season by Haines; two seven-point wins and a major decision. These four have separated themselves from the pack at 174 and Haines has separated himself a bit from among Kennedy, Minto, Kharchla and himself. Still, assuming Kharchla is healthy – he hasn’t wrestled since 2/6/26 – the semifinals and finals should be awesome at 174.
#1 Levi Haines (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Patrick Kennedy (IOWA, 6-1)
#3 Christopher Minto (NEB, 6-2)
#4 Carson Kharchla (tOSU, 4-2)
#5 Beau Montanona (MICH, 6-2)
#6 Eddie Enright (NW, 4-3)
#7 Derek Gilcher (IND, 3-3)
#8 Brody Baumann (PUR, 3-2)
#9 Ethan Riddle (MINN, 4-4)
#10 Colin Kelly (ILL, 4-4)
#11 Lenny Pinto (RUT, 2-3)
#12 Lucas Condon (WIS, 2-6)
#13 Connor O’Neill (MSU, 0-7)
#14 Seth Digby (MD, 0-8)
Standing atop the Big Ten standings is easy #1 seed Levi Haines. Haines has HTH wins over Minto (NEB) and Mantanona (MICH) to his credit. It didn’t take long for this weight class to go into deep dive mode for me, as Kennedy (IOWA), Minto (NEB), Kharchla (tOSU) and Mantanona (MICH) were the obvious next four. The order was far less obvious. In the national rankings most have Kennedy, Minto and Kharchla clustered together with Mantanona slightly lower, and the Big Ten seeds are equally close. We’ll see where the data takes us.
This did not take as long as I thought it would. #2 Kennedy has the better resume with only one conference loss, to Mantanona, and great wins over #4 Kharchla and #3 Minto. The cherry on top is a National Duals win over Kharchla, as the Hawkeye goes 2-0 vs the Buckeye on the season so far. #3 Minto split with Kharchla on the season, winning at the conference dual while losing at the National Duals, the conference dual carrying more weight. He also beat Mantanona at the National Duals, which wasn’t needed to tie-break any of the seeds, just thought I’d mention it. That leaves #5 Mantanona from this “group of 4”. While Mantanona has the great win HTH vs Kennedy, he also has the HTH loss to Kharchla and a National Duals loss to Minto. It should be mentioned that these guys beat up on each other, and none had losses to anyone seeded after them. To be honest, this worked out perfectly, despite a transitive property rebuttal, as Mantanona beat Kennedy, Kennedy beat Kharchla and Kharchla beat Mantanona.
The next five seeds would come from the likes of Enright (NW), Gilcher (IND) Baumann (PUR) Riddle (MINN) and Kelly (ILL). I started looking for differentiation, one guy at a time that stood out from the others. None did. Enright had the best record, and a best HTH win against Pinto (RUT). He had no bad losses in conference action, only losing to the top seeds. Enright does have an out-of-conference loss to Gilcher (Midlands), but the HTH action within conference duals is enough, my #6 seed is Enright. #7 Gilcher has a HTH win over #8 Baumann, plus the good out-of-conference win over Enright. The Enright win wasn’t needed but did give me a bit more confidence in the seeds. Baumann’s best win was HTH over Pinto, and only losses to guys seeded higher. So far, so good. #9 Riddle gets the nod next as I wrap up this “group of five”, with a HTH win over #10 Kelly.
#11 Pinto has an argument to be seeded higher, with a win over Riddle, but losses to Enright and Baumann to go with a 2-3 record just wasn’t enough. #12 Condon (WIS) with two conference wins, #13 O’Neill (MSU), and #14 Digby (MD) wrap up this weight class.
Having two small groups to work through (seeds #2 to 5, and 6 to 10) caused extra time for this weight class, but the HTH results were not all that difficult to get through. Haines, while going undefeated with five tech falls and a pin among his eight wins in conference duals, had a tough bout with Minto (8-6) at the BJC this year, and he had to come from behind vs Kharchla last season. Kennedy, who I feel on paper is the best of Minto, Kharchla and himself, was handled three times last season by Haines; two seven-point wins and a major decision. These four have separated themselves from the pack at 174 and Haines has separated himself a bit from among Kennedy, Minto, Kharchla and himself. Still, assuming Kharchla is healthy – he hasn’t wrestled since 2/6/26 – the semifinals and finals should be awesome at 174.
In a list of criteria the H2H was not B10 competition, so there is that.
The should be a percentage earned for showing up.
197
#1 Josh Barr (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Camden McDanel (NEB, 7-1)
#3 Remy Cotton (RUT, 7-1)
#4 Branson John (MD, 5-3)
#5 Luke Geog (tOSU, 4-3)
#6 Wyatt Ingham (WIS, 5-3)
#7 Kael Wisler (MSU, 5-3)
#8 Gavin Nelson (MINN, 3-5)
#9 Gabe Sollars (IND, 3-5)
#10 Hayden Walters (MICH, 3-5)
#11 Ben Vanadia (PUR, 1-4)
#12 Dylan Connell (ILL, 1-4)
#13 Alex Smith (NW, 0-8)
#14 Brody Sampson (IOWA, 0-3)
#1 Barr (PSU) is on a different planet than anyone else in the Big Ten at 197. He is one of three Big Ten wrestlers at any weight class with 8-0 marks and 100% bonus in Big Ten action. The other two are Jesse Mendez (tOSU, 141) and Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 165). Can you say Hodge Trophy candidates! Barr did it in style too, beating the #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 wrestlers in the Big Ten quite handily. His best competition is outside the Big Ten, where Rocky Elam, also undefeated on the season, awaits. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
#2 McDanel (NEB) and #3 Cotton (RUT) can both lay claim to the #2 seed, at 7-1 with a lone HTH loss to top seed Barr. McDanel’s HTH wins over Geog (tOSU) and Sollars (IND) are better than Cotton’s HTH win over John (MD) and most of the lowest seeds, so McDanel it is. #4 John has the slightly better resume next, with HTH wins over Geog and Sollars, to go with a moderately bad loss to Vanadia (PUR), the Boilermaker's only Big Ten win. #5 Geog has no losses to anyone other than the top four, and a best HTH win over Sollars.
Here it gets ugly. Just looking at the loss column, and excluding HTH losses to the top five; Sollars lost to Ingham (WIS), Ingham lost to Nelson (MINN), Nelson lost to Connell (ILL) and Wisler (MSU), Connell lost to Wisler, Walters (MICH) and Sollars, Vanadia lost to Wisler and Ingham, and Wisler lost to Walters. Beating up on each other was the MO of this group. The only wrestler in this group to defeat one of my five top seeds was Vanadia, but at 1-4 in conference, that HTH win was far outweighed by his HTH losses. I used the same method as in the past; break out this small group and look for differentiation from within. #6 Wisler stood out with a 3-1 record, identical to #7 Ingham, separated only by a Wisler HTH win over Nelson, while Ingham lost HTH to Nelson. #8 Nelson slotted next on the strength of a HTH win over #6 Wisler, but a loss to Connell and Shumate (tOSU back-up) out-of-conference hurt just enough. #9 Sollars and #10 Walters have nearly identical resumes, both beating Connell and Wisler. I flipped a coin.
The final four seeds are #11 Vanadia (PUR) with the good win over John, #12 Connell (MINN) with a good win over Nelson, #13 Smith (NW), and #14 Sampson (IOWA).
Barr is at a completely different level than anyone else in the Big Ten. This made the top seed an easy selection, but 197 was anything but easy after that. I have always found it easier to break out small groups, mostly three to six wrestlers, and look at their results. It works most-times, but occasionally I get a case that is too close to call. Frankly, as few bouts as we have to do the comparisons, it doesn’t happen as often as one might think. It happened at 197. One final thought at this weight class, regarding who goes for Iowa. It’s a hard no for Ludington, as their staff has made the decision to keep him on redshirt, giving him four seasons more to wrestle. Sampson is listed as the starter, but he’s beyond a long-shot to make the NCAA tournament. Could Gabe Arnold go up? Arnold wrestled at 174 vs Haines in mid-January, and has been the 184 starter since Ferrari’s injury. With Ferrari presumably back for Big Ten’s, Arnold might be their best option. He would not get a conference allocation for the Big Ten, but could steal a spot for the NCAA Championships from someone that has.
#1 Josh Barr (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Camden McDanel (NEB, 7-1)
#3 Remy Cotton (RUT, 7-1)
#4 Branson John (MD, 5-3)
#5 Luke Geog (tOSU, 4-3)
#6 Wyatt Ingham (WIS, 5-3)
#7 Kael Wisler (MSU, 5-3)
#8 Gavin Nelson (MINN, 3-5)
#9 Gabe Sollars (IND, 3-5)
#10 Hayden Walters (MICH, 3-5)
#11 Ben Vanadia (PUR, 1-4)
#12 Dylan Connell (ILL, 1-4)
#13 Alex Smith (NW, 0-8)
#14 Brody Sampson (IOWA, 0-3)
#1 Barr (PSU) is on a different planet than anyone else in the Big Ten at 197. He is one of three Big Ten wrestlers at any weight class with 8-0 marks and 100% bonus in Big Ten action. The other two are Jesse Mendez (tOSU, 141) and Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 165). Can you say Hodge Trophy candidates! Barr did it in style too, beating the #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 wrestlers in the Big Ten quite handily. His best competition is outside the Big Ten, where Rocky Elam, also undefeated on the season, awaits. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
#2 McDanel (NEB) and #3 Cotton (RUT) can both lay claim to the #2 seed, at 7-1 with a lone HTH loss to top seed Barr. McDanel’s HTH wins over Geog (tOSU) and Sollars (IND) are better than Cotton’s HTH win over John (MD) and most of the lowest seeds, so McDanel it is. #4 John has the slightly better resume next, with HTH wins over Geog and Sollars, to go with a moderately bad loss to Vanadia (PUR), the Boilermaker's only Big Ten win. #5 Geog has no losses to anyone other than the top four, and a best HTH win over Sollars.
Here it gets ugly. Just looking at the loss column, and excluding HTH losses to the top five; Sollars lost to Ingham (WIS), Ingham lost to Nelson (MINN), Nelson lost to Connell (ILL) and Wisler (MSU), Connell lost to Wisler, Walters (MICH) and Sollars, Vanadia lost to Wisler and Ingham, and Wisler lost to Walters. Beating up on each other was the MO of this group. The only wrestler in this group to defeat one of my five top seeds was Vanadia, but at 1-4 in conference, that HTH win was far outweighed by his HTH losses. I used the same method as in the past; break out this small group and look for differentiation from within. #6 Wisler stood out with a 3-1 record, identical to #7 Ingham, separated only by a Wisler HTH win over Nelson, while Ingham lost HTH to Nelson. #8 Nelson slotted next on the strength of a HTH win over #6 Wisler, but a loss to Connell and Shumate (tOSU back-up) out-of-conference hurt just enough. #9 Sollars and #10 Walters have nearly identical resumes, both beating Connell and Wisler. I flipped a coin.
The final four seeds are #11 Vanadia (PUR) with the good win over John, #12 Connell (MINN) with a good win over Nelson, #13 Smith (NW), and #14 Sampson (IOWA).
Barr is at a completely different level than anyone else in the Big Ten. This made the top seed an easy selection, but 197 was anything but easy after that. I have always found it easier to break out small groups, mostly three to six wrestlers, and look at their results. It works most-times, but occasionally I get a case that is too close to call. Frankly, as few bouts as we have to do the comparisons, it doesn’t happen as often as one might think. It happened at 197. One final thought at this weight class, regarding who goes for Iowa. It’s a hard no for Ludington, as their staff has made the decision to keep him on redshirt, giving him four seasons more to wrestle. Sampson is listed as the starter, but he’s beyond a long-shot to make the NCAA tournament. Could Gabe Arnold go up? Arnold wrestled at 174 vs Haines in mid-January, and has been the 184 starter since Ferrari’s injury. With Ferrari presumably back for Big Ten’s, Arnold might be their best option. He would not get a conference allocation for the Big Ten, but could steal a spot for the NCAA Championships from someone that has.
165
#1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Joey Blaze (PUR, 6-0)
#3 Michael Caliendo (6-2)
#4 Araujo (NEB, 4-3)
#5 Braeden Scoles (ILL, 6-2)
#6 Andrew Sparks (MINN, 5-2)
#7 Andrew Barbosa (RUT, 5-2)
#8 Paddy Gallagher (tOSU, 2-2)
#9 Tyler Lillard (IND, 3-5)
#10 Cody Goebel (WIS, 3-5)
#11 Justin Gates (MICH, 2-6)
#12 A.J. Rodriguez (MD, 2-6)
#13 Jacob Bostelman (NW, 1-3)
#14 D.J. Shannon (MSU, 0-4)
Last year’s review at 165 started, “By a landslide, it is #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) at the top of the seeds. He’s king-of-the-hill, and no one else is on that hill”. I can’t say it any clearer, so “ditto” for this season. I will take a respite here so fans reading this have a clear picture of what we are witnessing. Mesenbrink is 73-1 in a career that has seen two appearances in the NCAA Finals in two attempts. A healthy Mesenbrink should hit 100 collegiate wins sometime early to mid-February next year. His only collegiate loss is 8-9 to David Carr. His Bonus Rate is 77%, fifth all-time among Nittany Lions past and present (Josh Barr is third). His win % is tops all-time at 98.6%. Gone from 2025 are Peyton Hall, Julian Ramirez, and Terrell Barraclough as top challengers at NCAA’s, but Mike Caliendo is back, and Joey Blaze (PUR, up a weight) & Ladarion Lockett (OKST, FR) are both rock solid at this point in the season and should be among the top four seeds. Cleveland will ROCK!
Back to 165. #2 Joey Blaze (PUR), brother to our own Marcus Blaze is also undefeated at 6-0 in conference action which included a HTH win over #3 Caliendo in Iowa’s last Big Ten dual. Caliendo only has losses to Mesenbrink and Blaze and is a solid third. The next handful of wrestlers worked out quite nicely despite another transitive property failure as; Araujo (NEB) beat Sparks (MINN), Sparks beat Gallagher (tOSU), and Gallagher beat Araujo. Slightly less credit goes to the Gallagher HTH win over Araujo because it happened at the National Duals but to be honest it really didn’t matter, as you will see below.
#4 Araujo’s three Big Ten dual losses were to my top three seeds and he had HTH wins over both #5 Scoles (ILL) and #6 Sparks (MINN), my next two seeds. Scoles and Sparks are as close as you can get, both losing to Araujo and one other top three seed. All of their wins were to guys seeded higher. If this was a horse race, it would be a photo finish. I’m going #5 Scoles over #6 Sparks, going outside my routine and taking a look at Coaches Rank and RPI.
#7 Barbosa (RUT) slotted next, but there was nothing exciting coming out of his win column in a 5-2 campaign. His two HTH losses were to Scoles and Sparks, not bad at all, and a Midlands loss to e’Than Birden (tOSU back-up). I have #8 Gallagher next, with HTH losses only to guys in front of him, and the Midlands HTH win over Araujo far better than any of the remaining wrestlers. I will add here that tOSU has a decision to make, Gallagher or Birden? Their resumes are similar, so either will slot in as the #8 or #9 seed.
#9 Lillard (IND) is easily next with a HTH win over #10 Goebel (WIS) and no bad losses. #10 Gates (MICH) and #11 Rodriguez (MD), both 2-6, have nearly identical resumes, losing to guys they should (by ranking) and beating those they should. I went Gates for the higher seed. Final two seeds are #13 Bostelman (NW) and #14 Shannon (MSU).
My final weight class took nearly the same amount of time to seed as my first (149), so it can be considered among the easiest to seed. The wrestler’s results made it so. I did get side-tracked when providing a few snippets of info on Mesenbrink, but that was needed. Dude is so good, and makes it look so easy, that I’m not sure we truly appreciate his talent/skill. Even then, no one is handed or promised anything, so as we look forward to the post-season, GO LIONS!
#1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Joey Blaze (PUR, 6-0)
#3 Michael Caliendo (6-2)
#4 Araujo (NEB, 4-3)
#5 Braeden Scoles (ILL, 6-2)
#6 Andrew Sparks (MINN, 5-2)
#7 Andrew Barbosa (RUT, 5-2)
#8 Paddy Gallagher (tOSU, 2-2)
#9 Tyler Lillard (IND, 3-5)
#10 Cody Goebel (WIS, 3-5)
#11 Justin Gates (MICH, 2-6)
#12 A.J. Rodriguez (MD, 2-6)
#13 Jacob Bostelman (NW, 1-3)
#14 D.J. Shannon (MSU, 0-4)
Last year’s review at 165 started, “By a landslide, it is #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) at the top of the seeds. He’s king-of-the-hill, and no one else is on that hill”. I can’t say it any clearer, so “ditto” for this season. I will take a respite here so fans reading this have a clear picture of what we are witnessing. Mesenbrink is 73-1 in a career that has seen two appearances in the NCAA Finals in two attempts. A healthy Mesenbrink should hit 100 collegiate wins sometime early to mid-February next year. His only collegiate loss is 8-9 to David Carr. His Bonus Rate is 77%, fifth all-time among Nittany Lions past and present (Josh Barr is third). His win % is tops all-time at 98.6%. Gone from 2025 are Peyton Hall, Julian Ramirez, and Terrell Barraclough as top challengers at NCAA’s, but Mike Caliendo is back, and Joey Blaze (PUR, up a weight) & Ladarion Lockett (OKST, FR) are both rock solid at this point in the season and should be among the top four seeds. Cleveland will ROCK!
Back to 165. #2 Joey Blaze (PUR), brother to our own Marcus Blaze is also undefeated at 6-0 in conference action which included a HTH win over #3 Caliendo in Iowa’s last Big Ten dual. Caliendo only has losses to Mesenbrink and Blaze and is a solid third. The next handful of wrestlers worked out quite nicely despite another transitive property failure as; Araujo (NEB) beat Sparks (MINN), Sparks beat Gallagher (tOSU), and Gallagher beat Araujo. Slightly less credit goes to the Gallagher HTH win over Araujo because it happened at the National Duals but to be honest it really didn’t matter, as you will see below.
#4 Araujo’s three Big Ten dual losses were to my top three seeds and he had HTH wins over both #5 Scoles (ILL) and #6 Sparks (MINN), my next two seeds. Scoles and Sparks are as close as you can get, both losing to Araujo and one other top three seed. All of their wins were to guys seeded higher. If this was a horse race, it would be a photo finish. I’m going #5 Scoles over #6 Sparks, going outside my routine and taking a look at Coaches Rank and RPI.
#7 Barbosa (RUT) slotted next, but there was nothing exciting coming out of his win column in a 5-2 campaign. His two HTH losses were to Scoles and Sparks, not bad at all, and a Midlands loss to e’Than Birden (tOSU back-up). I have #8 Gallagher next, with HTH losses only to guys in front of him, and the Midlands HTH win over Araujo far better than any of the remaining wrestlers. I will add here that tOSU has a decision to make, Gallagher or Birden? Their resumes are similar, so either will slot in as the #8 or #9 seed.
#9 Lillard (IND) is easily next with a HTH win over #10 Goebel (WIS) and no bad losses. #10 Gates (MICH) and #11 Rodriguez (MD), both 2-6, have nearly identical resumes, losing to guys they should (by ranking) and beating those they should. I went Gates for the higher seed. Final two seeds are #13 Bostelman (NW) and #14 Shannon (MSU).
My final weight class took nearly the same amount of time to seed as my first (149), so it can be considered among the easiest to seed. The wrestler’s results made it so. I did get side-tracked when providing a few snippets of info on Mesenbrink, but that was needed. Dude is so good, and makes it look so easy, that I’m not sure we truly appreciate his talent/skill. Even then, no one is handed or promised anything, so as we look forward to the post-season, GO LIONS!
Thanks again. Had to lock the office door so as not to be interrupted and somebody knocked and said through the door, quit reading wrestling and answer the door.
THEORETICAL TEAM RESULTS & More
We can do this again once the Big Ten Pre-seeds are released, but for now will be using my seeds from the articles in this thread. It is good enough, given that seeds and placement will not match anyway. The table below shows PLACEMENT + ADVANCEMENT Points only, giving 1st Place points to the number one seed, 2nd Place points to the number two seed, and so on, no BONUS Points included. To give one data point for BONUS Points, last year Penn State scored a very high 27 BONUS Points, but were out-bonused by Nebraska, who earned 32 BONUS Points. Doesn’t happen often where a Penn State team is out-bonused, but even if they are, it will not be by a large margin. Regardless, the discussion below is sans Bonus Points.
Somethings happens at B1G’s, I call it “compression”. Then at NCAA’s, the brackets are “decompressed” once all 33 wrestlers in each weight class are included. It is a phenomenon that makes the Big Ten’s slightly harder to win if you’re the top team theoretically going in, and gives the theoretical second and thirds, etc. a fighting chance. I will try to explain it. A number one seed at Big Ten’s is likely a top seed at NCAA’s. Point in fact; nine of the ten weight classes currently have a Big Ten wrestler as the top-ranked wrestler, at least by Flowrestling. Top-seeded wrestlers’ theoretical points are the same at Big Ten’s as at NCAA’s, minus one ADVANCEMENT Point for one less round wrestled. Call it a tie. Using 165 as an example, Mitchell Mesenbrink has no point upside at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships, as he should be the top seed at both. LJ Araujo (NEB), on the other hand, is my 4th seed at B1G’s, while he’s likely the 7th seed or so at NCAA’s using today’s rankings. Of course conference results will play a part, but bear with me as I use this to make a point. Araujo’s theoretical points at B1G’s (4th Place, 11.5 Points), are lower at NCAA’s (7th Place, 6.5 Points). The reason? 165 is “compressed” when wrestlers from non-Big Ten schools are removed, then “decompressed” when all wrestlers are included at NCAA’s. A top-seeded guys’ best at both tourneys isn’t very different points-wise, while each seeded wrestler under him may get a scoring advantage at the conference championship – the result of removing wrestlers from other schools. We’ve seen it make a difference, as the Big Ten team champion gets passed at the NCAA tournament by another Big Ten school.
By my seeds, Penn State will start the tournament with six number one (1) seeds. While keeping Blaze at number two at 133, I also made the point that he should be number one using the new Big Ten seeding criteria. We will see what the Big Ten decides, for now he earns 2nd Place points. Penn State also has a number three (3), number four (4) and a number six (6) seed. Ohio State has two number one (1), two number two (2), one number three (3), one number four (4), two number five (5), one number seven (7), and one number eight (8) seeds. The theoretical point difference is significant at 41 points before bonus, but as with all sports you still must play the game (or matches in this case) as anything can happen. The margin is large enough that a complete and total collapse by the Lions would have to happen, and I don’t see that as a possibility. Don’t forget that Penn State has home mat advantage, which we know is a factor, so I expect we’ll see the Lions’ best. The team race should not be all that close.
The bigger picture for all teams is to have as many guys earn a spot in the brackets at NCAA’s. For Penn State, I can comfortably say that nine guys already have if one understands the NCAA’s qualifier process. I would say all 10 guys, except mathematically Davis must win at least one bout, two would guarantee being an NCAA qualifier. Going 0-2 is incredibly unlikely, a near 0% chance, so it is not worth spending more than a sentence or two for an explanation. An 0-2 start at Big Ten’s wouldn’t get him an RPI (need 15 bouts, he would have 14), and the Big Ten allotment at 141 doesn’t look like a high number this year, meaning they may not wrestle countable matches to get to 9th Place. He’s golden in my book, just sharing a few facts.
One other phenomenon we see at Big Ten’s is forfeits in the medal round, many not due to injury in my opinion (and observation). Given the preponderance, it appears it is done once a wrestler earns their way to the NCAA Championship. I think there were eight forfeits out of 20 bouts in the 5th and 7th place bouts last year at Northwestern.
Well that about does it. Next up are the official Big Ten preseeds, and knowing almost for certain the paths of each wrestler. Almost as I’m not sure how the coaches can change a number-based result, though we’re likely to see some seeds that will be debated.
We can do this again once the Big Ten Pre-seeds are released, but for now will be using my seeds from the articles in this thread. It is good enough, given that seeds and placement will not match anyway. The table below shows PLACEMENT + ADVANCEMENT Points only, giving 1st Place points to the number one seed, 2nd Place points to the number two seed, and so on, no BONUS Points included. To give one data point for BONUS Points, last year Penn State scored a very high 27 BONUS Points, but were out-bonused by Nebraska, who earned 32 BONUS Points. Doesn’t happen often where a Penn State team is out-bonused, but even if they are, it will not be by a large margin. Regardless, the discussion below is sans Bonus Points.
Somethings happens at B1G’s, I call it “compression”. Then at NCAA’s, the brackets are “decompressed” once all 33 wrestlers in each weight class are included. It is a phenomenon that makes the Big Ten’s slightly harder to win if you’re the top team theoretically going in, and gives the theoretical second and thirds, etc. a fighting chance. I will try to explain it. A number one seed at Big Ten’s is likely a top seed at NCAA’s. Point in fact; nine of the ten weight classes currently have a Big Ten wrestler as the top-ranked wrestler, at least by Flowrestling. Top-seeded wrestlers’ theoretical points are the same at Big Ten’s as at NCAA’s, minus one ADVANCEMENT Point for one less round wrestled. Call it a tie. Using 165 as an example, Mitchell Mesenbrink has no point upside at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships, as he should be the top seed at both. LJ Araujo (NEB), on the other hand, is my 4th seed at B1G’s, while he’s likely the 7th seed or so at NCAA’s using today’s rankings. Of course conference results will play a part, but bear with me as I use this to make a point. Araujo’s theoretical points at B1G’s (4th Place, 11.5 Points), are lower at NCAA’s (7th Place, 6.5 Points). The reason? 165 is “compressed” when wrestlers from non-Big Ten schools are removed, then “decompressed” when all wrestlers are included at NCAA’s. A top-seeded guys’ best at both tourneys isn’t very different points-wise, while each seeded wrestler under him may get a scoring advantage at the conference championship – the result of removing wrestlers from other schools. We’ve seen it make a difference, as the Big Ten team champion gets passed at the NCAA tournament by another Big Ten school.
By my seeds, Penn State will start the tournament with six number one (1) seeds. While keeping Blaze at number two at 133, I also made the point that he should be number one using the new Big Ten seeding criteria. We will see what the Big Ten decides, for now he earns 2nd Place points. Penn State also has a number three (3), number four (4) and a number six (6) seed. Ohio State has two number one (1), two number two (2), one number three (3), one number four (4), two number five (5), one number seven (7), and one number eight (8) seeds. The theoretical point difference is significant at 41 points before bonus, but as with all sports you still must play the game (or matches in this case) as anything can happen. The margin is large enough that a complete and total collapse by the Lions would have to happen, and I don’t see that as a possibility. Don’t forget that Penn State has home mat advantage, which we know is a factor, so I expect we’ll see the Lions’ best. The team race should not be all that close.
The bigger picture for all teams is to have as many guys earn a spot in the brackets at NCAA’s. For Penn State, I can comfortably say that nine guys already have if one understands the NCAA’s qualifier process. I would say all 10 guys, except mathematically Davis must win at least one bout, two would guarantee being an NCAA qualifier. Going 0-2 is incredibly unlikely, a near 0% chance, so it is not worth spending more than a sentence or two for an explanation. An 0-2 start at Big Ten’s wouldn’t get him an RPI (need 15 bouts, he would have 14), and the Big Ten allotment at 141 doesn’t look like a high number this year, meaning they may not wrestle countable matches to get to 9th Place. He’s golden in my book, just sharing a few facts.
One other phenomenon we see at Big Ten’s is forfeits in the medal round, many not due to injury in my opinion (and observation). Given the preponderance, it appears it is done once a wrestler earns their way to the NCAA Championship. I think there were eight forfeits out of 20 bouts in the 5th and 7th place bouts last year at Northwestern.
Well that about does it. Next up are the official Big Ten preseeds, and knowing almost for certain the paths of each wrestler. Almost as I’m not sure how the coaches can change a number-based result, though we’re likely to see some seeds that will be debated.
| PSU | 161 |
| tOSU | 120 |
| NEB | 102.5 |
| IOWA | 84.5 |
| MICH | 73.5 |
| MINN | 68 |
| ILL | 65 |
| WIS | 50.5 |
| RUT | 49.5 |
| MD | 32.5 |
| PUR | 25 |
| IND | 20 |
| NW | 20 |
| MSU | 8 |
Great job as always Roar. Much appreciated and one of the things I look forward to each year.
So I like to use wrestlestats tourney prediction tool just to get an idea for penn state's score at NCAAs. Ran one yesterday and, not counting bonus, I have Penn State 167.5 and OSU 92 (OkSt 93). Points to your compression of this tournament as Penn State doesn't really change and OSU drops a bunch.