WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS 13 –11 (3-9 ACC, 14th Place)
NCAA NET 120 (UNC 21); Massey rating 102 (UNC 20); RPI 210 (Nolan) (UNC 28); Torvik 121 (UNC 21); NCAA WAB 126 (UNC 20)
Last Season 9-20, 2-16 ACC; did not qualify for the ACCT; No postseason
Sunday afternoon’s game is against Wake Forest in the LJVM Coliseum in Winston-Salem. UNC has won more games against Wake than any other team: 70 -18, and in Winston-Salem Carolina is 8-2 against Wake in the last 10 trips up I-40.
Last time the teams met in Winston-Salem saw the Heels winning 58-50 behind Alyssa Ustby’s 25/10 double-double and Deja Kelly’s 15 points. Alyssa’s 25 points were a career high.
For Sunday’s game, the 19-5 (8-3) Heels are a 14- point favorite by Massey’s reckoning; Nolan thinks it will be 18 and Torvik 14.
The Deacs got their season started like a house afire, going 9-0 including a visit to the Puerto Rico shootout, which they won 3-0. Wake went 10-2 in non-conference games with a line-up that included no top-25 teams. The two losses were to William and Mary (64-67) and Georgetown (56-58). Some of the “experts” noted that Wake’s schedule was ranked at #218 (NCAA) and that sort of schedule would not prepare a team for ACC play. In this case they were right as Wake is 3-9. To be fair, however, that number of wins exceeds all of last season with six games to go – including Carolina.
Wake opened ACC play with December games at home against Georgia Tech (W 57-56 on two FTs with 4.06 remaining), but then losing at home to Miami (61-64). In the Miami game Wake had a shot at a tying basket as time expired.
The ACC games starting in January were a win at Pitt 74-55 (Pitt is currently 1-10; UNC plays them 2/22); a home loss to Syracuse (58-73); a trip to the Golden State featured losses to the two resident ACC teams, Stanford (43-55) and Cal (52-61). Moo U was next in town and won 77-95; Wake had no better luck at Clemson (L 71-78); next the Old Dominion dispatched its two representatives and both went home with wins – Virginia Tech 57-85 and Virginia 103-109 in a marathon triple overtime game.
A trip to the Rockpile had the expected result; a Blue Devil 36-point win 80-44. A journey down to Texas was more rewarding as Wake defeated SMU 70-65. (SMU is also 1-10, UNC hosts them next Thursday. Say hi to our old pal Paulina Paris who starts at guard.)
UNC is next on the Deac schedule.
Wake Forest has, like many other teams, had to reload after losing all but four players from the 2025 team. Aurora Sørbe, who’s from Norway, was a principal reserve a year ago and now has started 10 of 12 ACC games. She averages 7.5 ppg and leads in assists. She is a 5-9 sophomore G. Madisyn Jordan, a 6-1 junior W (2.9) was a reserve last season and continues in that role. Likewise Kennedy Moore, a 6-2 sophomore F, sees action as a reserve (3.6/2.4). Emily Johns, a 6-1 GS F was an All--Patriot performer when at American U. but did not play at all in 2025. She has also seen some limited time this year as a reserve (2.3/2.7).
Sørbe will shoot the three: 41.2% on 28 of 68. Wake has three players at 40% or better; the others are Caitlyn Jones and Grace Oliver.
Newcomers fill out the lineup. Milan Brown, a 5-8 freshman G, is a starter (9.3/6.5) and is one of two leaders in steals. And despite being just 5-8, Brown leads in rebounds and had 17 in the dook loss. A second freshman starter is Opal Bird, a 6-3 F (4.5/3.2). She is one of two Australians. The other freshman from Australia is Savannah Metcalfe, a 6-5 C (1.6). Unlike her countrywoman Bird, Metcalfe is rarely off the bench.
Caitlyn Jones, a 5-8 freshman G (8.6/2.6) has been in-and-out of the starting rotation but will see extensive minutes even when not starting. If Jones is not starting, Colorado transfer Grace Oliver, a 6-1 sophomore F will start (13.8/4.3). Oliver did something remarkable in December, going 14-14 from the floor in a 30-point performance. That 100% for that number of shots was an ACC record.
Another transfer, Mary Carter, came from Cal Poly. A 6-3 junior W, she averages 10.8 ppg and 5.0 rpg. Carter was All Big West. A strong defender, leading the team in blocks, Carter is also fond of the 3-pointer with 51 of 156 (.327).
Finally, early in the year 5-11 redshirt junior G Raven Preston, was contributing off the bench. A transfer from Charlotte Smith’s Elon program, Preston was a solid 8.2 ppg and 8.0 rpg performer. She has not played any ACC games – injury a likely cause although no official statement has been found.
Likely starting Sunday: Brown, Bird, Carter, Sørbe, and Jones. Off the bench Moore, Jordan and Johns. Note that Oliver, who normally would start, has missed the last two games. Her status is unknown. There is no report of any injury.
Most of Wake’s offensive statistics show them to be in the mid-to-lower half of the ACC, as one would expect: They are 14th in scoring (63.9 ppg), 14th in scoring margin (-9.1), 8th in FG% (.428), but 3rd in 3P% (.364), 4th in assists (15.83), 16th in turnover margin (-3.83), and 10th in A/TO ratio (0.94). They are a young team, six freshmen and sophomores in the rotation. The Deacons 3-point shooting is more than acceptable and certainly better than Carolina at .308 (12th).
However, defensive numbers paint a different picture. While UNC continues to be a defensive power, #2 ACC in scoring defense (59.7), #1 ACC in FG% defense (.353), and #2 in 3P defense (.267). Wake has lower numbers and is 14th in scoring defense (73.0), 11th in FG% defense (.417), 13th in 3P defense (.328) and have a negative turnover margin at -3.83 (16th).
Wake is not a rebounding power. They are 18th in offensive rebounding (8.3 per game), 14th in defensive rebounding (24.8), and 13th in rebounding margin (-8.3). UNC isn’t exactly killing people on the boards but are 8th on OR, 4th in DR, and 9th in RM.
As an aside, it is difficult to imagine a championship for a team averaging less than 70 points. Carolina averages 68.0.
All that said, Wake remains a tough opponent for UNC. Twice in recent years they have knocked the Heels out of the ACC Tournament. For the Deacs, UNC remains a major rival and they would love to beat Carolina on their home floor. A tough game can be expected, particularly if Oliver is playing.
The Head Coach is Megan Gebbia, in her fourth year. Her 46-73 (12-54) records are not exactly earth-shattering, and in ACC play pretty grim with two straight 2-16 seasons. Still, with six games remaining and if Wake could win three at 6-12 they should at least qualify for the ACCT. Three of those games are away (Louisville, BC and NCSU, their “two-fer”) and the other three at home are UNC, Notre Dame and FSU.
For #25/21 Carolina, positioned now at 19-5 (8-3) and alone in 5th, the situation remains in flux. The Heels are ½-game behind 9-3 Syracuse and Cow College. UNC holds the tie-breaker with both. UNC is ½-game ahead of 8-4 Virginia and Virginia Tech. Carolina has games remaining with both. Further, UNC is 1½-games ahead of Clemson and Notre Dame. The Heels have the tie breaker with Clemson but not with the Irish. What a logjam!
A loss to Wake Forest would be a disaster and the team needs to know that. UNC must do whatever it takes to win. Any chance at a double-bye (and maybe an NCAA hosting selection) would be riding on the outcome, particularly with two games with 12-0 dook plus a road trip to Virginia left. This is the problem Carolina made for itself by losing three early-season ACC games.
ACCN will broadcast the game; game time is 2:00 PM EST. There will be audio from GoHeels as well.
NCAA NET 120 (UNC 21); Massey rating 102 (UNC 20); RPI 210 (Nolan) (UNC 28); Torvik 121 (UNC 21); NCAA WAB 126 (UNC 20)
Last Season 9-20, 2-16 ACC; did not qualify for the ACCT; No postseason
Sunday afternoon’s game is against Wake Forest in the LJVM Coliseum in Winston-Salem. UNC has won more games against Wake than any other team: 70 -18, and in Winston-Salem Carolina is 8-2 against Wake in the last 10 trips up I-40.
Last time the teams met in Winston-Salem saw the Heels winning 58-50 behind Alyssa Ustby’s 25/10 double-double and Deja Kelly’s 15 points. Alyssa’s 25 points were a career high.
For Sunday’s game, the 19-5 (8-3) Heels are a 14- point favorite by Massey’s reckoning; Nolan thinks it will be 18 and Torvik 14.
The Deacs got their season started like a house afire, going 9-0 including a visit to the Puerto Rico shootout, which they won 3-0. Wake went 10-2 in non-conference games with a line-up that included no top-25 teams. The two losses were to William and Mary (64-67) and Georgetown (56-58). Some of the “experts” noted that Wake’s schedule was ranked at #218 (NCAA) and that sort of schedule would not prepare a team for ACC play. In this case they were right as Wake is 3-9. To be fair, however, that number of wins exceeds all of last season with six games to go – including Carolina.
Wake opened ACC play with December games at home against Georgia Tech (W 57-56 on two FTs with 4.06 remaining), but then losing at home to Miami (61-64). In the Miami game Wake had a shot at a tying basket as time expired.
The ACC games starting in January were a win at Pitt 74-55 (Pitt is currently 1-10; UNC plays them 2/22); a home loss to Syracuse (58-73); a trip to the Golden State featured losses to the two resident ACC teams, Stanford (43-55) and Cal (52-61). Moo U was next in town and won 77-95; Wake had no better luck at Clemson (L 71-78); next the Old Dominion dispatched its two representatives and both went home with wins – Virginia Tech 57-85 and Virginia 103-109 in a marathon triple overtime game.
A trip to the Rockpile had the expected result; a Blue Devil 36-point win 80-44. A journey down to Texas was more rewarding as Wake defeated SMU 70-65. (SMU is also 1-10, UNC hosts them next Thursday. Say hi to our old pal Paulina Paris who starts at guard.)
UNC is next on the Deac schedule.
Wake Forest has, like many other teams, had to reload after losing all but four players from the 2025 team. Aurora Sørbe, who’s from Norway, was a principal reserve a year ago and now has started 10 of 12 ACC games. She averages 7.5 ppg and leads in assists. She is a 5-9 sophomore G. Madisyn Jordan, a 6-1 junior W (2.9) was a reserve last season and continues in that role. Likewise Kennedy Moore, a 6-2 sophomore F, sees action as a reserve (3.6/2.4). Emily Johns, a 6-1 GS F was an All--Patriot performer when at American U. but did not play at all in 2025. She has also seen some limited time this year as a reserve (2.3/2.7).
Sørbe will shoot the three: 41.2% on 28 of 68. Wake has three players at 40% or better; the others are Caitlyn Jones and Grace Oliver.
Newcomers fill out the lineup. Milan Brown, a 5-8 freshman G, is a starter (9.3/6.5) and is one of two leaders in steals. And despite being just 5-8, Brown leads in rebounds and had 17 in the dook loss. A second freshman starter is Opal Bird, a 6-3 F (4.5/3.2). She is one of two Australians. The other freshman from Australia is Savannah Metcalfe, a 6-5 C (1.6). Unlike her countrywoman Bird, Metcalfe is rarely off the bench.
Caitlyn Jones, a 5-8 freshman G (8.6/2.6) has been in-and-out of the starting rotation but will see extensive minutes even when not starting. If Jones is not starting, Colorado transfer Grace Oliver, a 6-1 sophomore F will start (13.8/4.3). Oliver did something remarkable in December, going 14-14 from the floor in a 30-point performance. That 100% for that number of shots was an ACC record.
Another transfer, Mary Carter, came from Cal Poly. A 6-3 junior W, she averages 10.8 ppg and 5.0 rpg. Carter was All Big West. A strong defender, leading the team in blocks, Carter is also fond of the 3-pointer with 51 of 156 (.327).
Finally, early in the year 5-11 redshirt junior G Raven Preston, was contributing off the bench. A transfer from Charlotte Smith’s Elon program, Preston was a solid 8.2 ppg and 8.0 rpg performer. She has not played any ACC games – injury a likely cause although no official statement has been found.
Likely starting Sunday: Brown, Bird, Carter, Sørbe, and Jones. Off the bench Moore, Jordan and Johns. Note that Oliver, who normally would start, has missed the last two games. Her status is unknown. There is no report of any injury.
Most of Wake’s offensive statistics show them to be in the mid-to-lower half of the ACC, as one would expect: They are 14th in scoring (63.9 ppg), 14th in scoring margin (-9.1), 8th in FG% (.428), but 3rd in 3P% (.364), 4th in assists (15.83), 16th in turnover margin (-3.83), and 10th in A/TO ratio (0.94). They are a young team, six freshmen and sophomores in the rotation. The Deacons 3-point shooting is more than acceptable and certainly better than Carolina at .308 (12th).
However, defensive numbers paint a different picture. While UNC continues to be a defensive power, #2 ACC in scoring defense (59.7), #1 ACC in FG% defense (.353), and #2 in 3P defense (.267). Wake has lower numbers and is 14th in scoring defense (73.0), 11th in FG% defense (.417), 13th in 3P defense (.328) and have a negative turnover margin at -3.83 (16th).
Wake is not a rebounding power. They are 18th in offensive rebounding (8.3 per game), 14th in defensive rebounding (24.8), and 13th in rebounding margin (-8.3). UNC isn’t exactly killing people on the boards but are 8th on OR, 4th in DR, and 9th in RM.
As an aside, it is difficult to imagine a championship for a team averaging less than 70 points. Carolina averages 68.0.
All that said, Wake remains a tough opponent for UNC. Twice in recent years they have knocked the Heels out of the ACC Tournament. For the Deacs, UNC remains a major rival and they would love to beat Carolina on their home floor. A tough game can be expected, particularly if Oliver is playing.
The Head Coach is Megan Gebbia, in her fourth year. Her 46-73 (12-54) records are not exactly earth-shattering, and in ACC play pretty grim with two straight 2-16 seasons. Still, with six games remaining and if Wake could win three at 6-12 they should at least qualify for the ACCT. Three of those games are away (Louisville, BC and NCSU, their “two-fer”) and the other three at home are UNC, Notre Dame and FSU.
For #25/21 Carolina, positioned now at 19-5 (8-3) and alone in 5th, the situation remains in flux. The Heels are ½-game behind 9-3 Syracuse and Cow College. UNC holds the tie-breaker with both. UNC is ½-game ahead of 8-4 Virginia and Virginia Tech. Carolina has games remaining with both. Further, UNC is 1½-games ahead of Clemson and Notre Dame. The Heels have the tie breaker with Clemson but not with the Irish. What a logjam!
A loss to Wake Forest would be a disaster and the team needs to know that. UNC must do whatever it takes to win. Any chance at a double-bye (and maybe an NCAA hosting selection) would be riding on the outcome, particularly with two games with 12-0 dook plus a road trip to Virginia left. This is the problem Carolina made for itself by losing three early-season ACC games.
ACCN will broadcast the game; game time is 2:00 PM EST. There will be audio from GoHeels as well.
