Recent content by Second_Law

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    OT: Tariff Economics Discussion

    I said the tariffs would not be inflationary. almost each point has actual numbers to back them up Economic growth has been -0.5 in 2025:Q1 and 3.0 in 2025:Q2. In 2024 and 2025 real GDP growth was 2.8 and 2.9— so if you want to call this a booming economy then you have to say 2023 and 2024 was...
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    OT: Tariff Economics Discussion

    Happy to revisit. To be clear I would have been happy with a more targeted approach to protect certain industries or against certain countries, but the data so far does not dispute anything I said. We, US citizens, are paying the cost of the tariffs, the employment situation has not improved...
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    Oops. Fat fingered the numbers. The FED was off by 1mm jobs

    It is a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is not a revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is something the Philly Fed started doing recently and I am not sure how accurate their early benchmark revisions are -- I need to take a closer look. In any even, here is a...
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    Resident Epidemiologist help please

    Not an epidemiologist, but I have worked with SIRS (SEIRS) models. The difference is the R0 is believed to be notably higher for COVID-19 (2 to 3) than H1N1 (slightly above 1)--R0 is the number of people who are likely to catch the disease from each infected person without any mitigation...
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    OT: Tariff Economics Discussion

    Several points worth noting here: 1) The incidence of the tariffs is mostly being paid by US consumers. For example, the tariffs on aluminum and steel have allowed these industries to expand and increase employment. However, the cost of steel has risen dramatically. For each job saved in the...
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