Apparently not. Why are you downplaying the "win one for the Gipper" motivation that gave them? Auburn is playing really good basketball right now. I think we would have been a better match up for Virginia, but I won't be shocked If Auburn takes them to the wire, or even beats them. Virginia SHOULD win, but so should have Tenn., UNC, and us.
Cal's Offense and KenPom
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Apparently not. Why are you downplaying the "win one for the Gipper" motivation that gave them? Auburn is playing really good basketball right now. I think we would have been a better match up for Virginia, but I won't be shocked If Auburn takes them to the wire, or even beats them. Virginia SHOULD win, but so should have Tenn., UNC, and us.
Our leading scorer was a returning Sophmore and was injured. Our second leading scorer is a 4 star recruit. This team wasn't that particularly talented compared to past classes. I'm not saying the coaches arent beyond reasonable criticism. But most of these complaints just seem like butt-hurt bashing, as if Cal and these players owe us something. Just seems way over the top.
But wouldn't you say 28 points from PJ "not being 100%" = advantage over Okeke not playing at all?
You've managed to conflate a few different discussions here, which is fine, but I'm not arguing along the multiple the lines you're presenting here. The idea that Calipari owes us something is not something I'm arguing. I'm arguing that UK under performed two years in a row against teams without NBA talent.
Additionally, UK had four NBA players on its roster Sunday, including two top 20 picks and three overall first round picks (and that's if you don't count Hagans, EJ, Nick, or IQ). With Okeke out, Auburn had none.
We underachieved. It's okay to admit it. It doesn't mean UK owes us anything. What it means is that UK should have won the game. Cal agrees, by the way.
It's not a zero sum game. They still field 5 players. And PJ wasn't moving as quickly as usual. Makes it hard to guard their quick guards when they pull you out to the perimeter. We beat them twice with a fully healthy PJ, while they had Okeke. But I get it, I'm supposed to raise hell about Cal's coaching while pretending that Auburn is just another sucky SEC team. Seriously, can Roy Williams not coach either?
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Well I'd agree the Cats weren't that talented, especially athletically. Sentiment on the board early on was the team could get to a final four with the right draw.
UK got that draw and should not have wound up losing in the Elite 8.
The flaw in there is that Auburn did not get hot against UK and hit a bunch of threes. They hit 7. Most talking heads said they'd need to hit at least 13 to win the game.
UK lost the game. Auburn did not win it.
Someone just had to make a play.
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Auburn doesn't suck, but we had a better team on the floor Sunday.
Also, Cal doesn't suck. His overall net gain on the program is incredible and there's not a coach in America I'd rather have. I want him to stay or 20 more years if possible. Additionally, discussing potential ways to improve the program doesn't mean I want a revolution. It's a message board. There's nuance in discussion that doesn't always have to feature extremes.
Defense becomes the focus. It gets serious then. Every possession becomes a war. An offensive decline in the tournament is to be expected.
Of course we should have won on paper. But using the simple focus of superior talent, you must think 9 out of the last 10 years was a failure. Not sure what you want here. It's Extremely hard to win the tournament and takes luck as well. Fact of the matter is, a 5 seed beat a 1seed in a one and done format. It happens. Quit acting like we lost to Robert Morris again. Auburn is playing some the best ball in the nation right now.
It astounds me that people can just point to this Auburn game while trying to defend any ctricism of Cal that he slows it down this time of year. I guess we didn’t want to run with wafford or Houston this year either or what about KSU last year. Under Cal we have an overwhelming history of consistently scoring in the low 60’s and even high 50’s beyond the first round of the tournament. There are a few exceptions but every single loss we have endured under Cal in the tournament we only broke 70 once and that was against UNC in 17. We average 62 points total in our final game played over 10 seasons. How much did we score in regulation against Auburn, 60 points. Yeah let’s blame it on not wanting to run with them. Smh!!!
Sure they got hot from hitting 3 pointers against Kansas and UNC. They even hit 12 against New Mexico State and survived a one point win. They hit 7 against us. What does that have to do with us scoring over 20 points less than we scored against them in two previous games. We had already beat them twice playing their game, this time we got a 3rd chance without their best player on the floor, what do we do, change up what had worked so well before. Cal is always his own worst enemy. You don’t have to coach against him, he does it to himself.
The thing people don’t feel like our offense is good is because it isn’t “pretty”
Our offensive efficiency numbers over the years are driven by offensive rebounding and getting to the line.
So essentially our best offense over the years is miss a shot rebound the ball and put it back in.
Which certainly works. Just not pleasing to the eyes.
But as long as you are scoring doesn’t really matter what way u do it.
Our offensive efficiency numbers over the years are driven by offensive rebounding and getting to the line.
So essentially our best offense over the years is miss a shot rebound the ball and put it back in.
Which certainly works. Just not pleasing to the eyes.
But as long as you are scoring doesn’t really matter what way u do it.
In fairness I would suspect that *most* teams scoring avg drops in NCAA tournament simply because they are playing stiffer competition.
You have to consider that scoring avg factors in all regular season games including those against low level D1 teams, poor conference opponents, etc.
I could be off base, but JMHO.
Lots of talk about the Auburn game in this thread. It took a well below average three point shooting game, a well below average free throw shooting game, and a well below expectations (considering the matchup) offensive rebounding game for us to lose. Really I think offensive rebounding was supposed to be our fail safe. I remain stunned that we didn’t rebound at least 40% of our misses, and I really expected more like 50%.
We can't go blaming the refs on that though. In truth we settled for jump shots which is not out game. You won't get a lot of fouls when you do that. Truth is our guards were completely taken apart and it rolled down hill from there.
If Herro would have played well we would have won but he didn't. As result we were left with main scorer who was off his game and a PG that can't get to the rim and doesn't set up the offense well. We shouldn't expect foul calls to bail us out from that situation.
Auburn may have been hot, but they were not hot against us. They shot 40% from the field and 30% from 3 pt line. Those numbers should get you beat, why we lost us up for debate
So much opinion and not just that flawed opinion .
Yes EXPERIENCED players with NBA potential is what championship is littered with. Not young kid who might become good.
Again, please show me all these NBA talent (freshman) that is thriving in NCAA tourney?
You keep going back to UK player to make your argument which is my point. Smh.
Show me other coaches on consistent basis where freshman driven teams are leading to FF .
Your whole basis of argument is with these young talent (which you still don't seem to understand the meaning behind) we shouldn't be losing?
Yet Cal still, by far, has the most tourney wins.
So when we beat them at Auburn and Auburn played their A game and we scored 82 and won the game , and then later we scored 80 and crushed them , but our new philosophy is play slow and aim for the 60's , because they are so hot ( or so " not the team they were") we just cant keep up with them ... as the old guinness commercial says " BRILLIANT " !! With their best player sidelined ? Your opinion is the astounding thing.
Most of that was us though. I am thoroughly frustrated with how crappy our offense was but that doesn't extend to our defense. You do have to admit that at that point we were by far the best defensive team in the country. And I'm not sure it was even close. We were going to shut down any team we played from that point on even Duke. I believe we would have held them to about 60 points. The only problem was that it was never assured that we would score 60 ourselves. Even against a bad defensive team.
Its not so much scoring goes down , that is expected as you advance -- its how large the drop off is . The answer is as plain as the nose on your face ... Cal wants it slower .
We should have beaten that team without their only inside scoring threat in what was our most important game of the year. Gipper or no Gipper .You'll never convince me otherwise. Style of play was the main factor imo. We won't see another final 4 under Cal unless he adapts a different offensive philosophy. IMO .
The numbers say our defense was good and it was except for trying to stop the guards from driving. Even that may not have made any difference if the refs hadn't become spectators the last quarter of the game. My problem is with Cal choking back the offense then the game becomes a contest between men and boys. We had 3 freshmen on the floor and they had all jrs. and srs. That experience is invaluable at crunch time, they know every way, legal and illegal, to gain advantages on the floor
1. UK and Duke are the only OAD programs. They've won two titles with a saturation of young/older players. There has never been a national champion who's won only with younger players.
2. As a result of UK/Duke being the only ones, it's impossible to compared to other programs in that regard.
3. That said, it's still the system Calipari prefers? Should he change his system? He seems to think that winning with younger players as a dominant aspect of his roster is the way to go. Do you agree with him?
4. What about that question regarding KSU and Auburn? Do you think they were more talented than UK?
5. You mentioned "young players who might become good." Would you place KJ, Herro, Wall, Randle, Towns, Knox, Fox, Monk, etc. in that category? It seems to me that they were pretty good at UK, and not merely in the "might become good" category.
Its just too bad that we have had so many marginal players leave, they are just in too big of a hurry
Jumping in as you bring up some great points.
I'd like to see Cal CONTINUE to change his ways of recruiting, which I think he has over several years ever so slightly. Our rosters the last two years have been incredibly young. I don't think he foresaw guys like Humphries, Matthews, etc leaving.
I think Auburn was as talented as UK this year, really do. It doesn't mean they'll have as many play in the NBA, but in terms of college talent, time together, etc I think they are right there this year. KSU nope, not a chance..that was just a terrible game.
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I believe the excessive youth is either causing or contributing to the marginal level performance of the individual players. High school kids just coming in don't know anything yet. Even Cousins and Wall had their struggles at first. Their struggles were correct early though. Part of that is that both Wall and Cousins had veterans to learn from. Putting a young player in the middle of a developed system and he will grow faster than one put with others who don't know what they are doing either.
Well, there's also the reality that UK has scored 60 against Auburn in regulation, and 58 against KSU. We averaged 55/game in our two losses to UConn. We failed to break 68 points against Indiana, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. We had 64 points with a minute left against UNC before Monk and Fox combined for three threes in the last minute.
I get that grinding it out mathematically limits turnovers/bad shots. I also get the last two years, it didn't matter. We still took bad shots. We still had turnovers.
Maybe some veteran guards fixes that. I'm open to anything at this point.
Its amazing , given these numbers, that people want to write it off , or not act concerned , or call you ( or me) a whiner . Amazing. The truth is the tighter the game the more Cal slams on the brakes ( in the NCAAT ) One of the very few small adjustments I wish he would make.
Veteran guard play (sophomores and up) is probably answer. SGA crapped the bed against KSU, Hagans crapped the bed against Auburn.
It might mean UK has to restructure their sale's job and sell longer term development for some kids as opposed to the idea that Kentucky offers the fastest route to the NBA.
I do like the grad transfer route we've been slowly merging onto. I'm down for bringing in 1 or 2 of those guys every year.
He has taken Kentucky to the final four or better, 4 out of 10 years at Kentucky. That's 40%! You're being reactionary & irrational.
I prefer calling this season underachieving vs. a failure. To me, last year was a failure due to having a wide open door to FF and losing to a weak college team with lesser talent. KSU was terrible honestly.
I consider both '17 and this year similarly in the sense that they underachieved in not reaching the FF with the rosters they had. '17 lost to a Natl Champion but we'd already beat them that year....similarly, we beat Auburn twice this year- I'm not saying they will or won't win the title...but they are playing to their full potential now and have a group of great college players....to me, no shame in calling these seasons underachieving and no shame in either team they lost to in those two seasons.
Inferior how? And by how much? In UK's NCAA Tournament losses:
- 2010 - KenPom implied 1 point favorite.
- 2011 - KenPom implied 2 point favorite.
- 2014 - KenPom implied 1 point favorite.
- 2015 - KenPom implied 3.5 point favorite.
- 2016 - KenPom implied 2.5 point favorite.
- 2017 - KenPom implied 0.5 point underdog.
- 2018 - KenPom implied 6.5 point favorite.
- 2019 - KenPom implied 3 point favorite.
I said this last Saturday. Without a second title, Cal’s run here will feel like the Braves run in the 90’s. A lot of dominance, a lot of consistency, and a lot of blown chances at winning it all. And very similar to Bobby Cox, cal changes what got him there. All season long, he would scream “run” after a rebound driving the season but in the NCAA he slows it down. He gets into rock fights for the most part in the tourney. And it’s been successful but it also lends itself to having to often make plays as the horn buzzes.
Most of the tournament games are played in the 60’s and low 70’s despite whoever the PG is. Knight had scores like that against OSU, UNC and UCONN was in the 50’s. Title game was a low score in 12. ‘14 team won their games in the low to mid 70’s. I won’t understand the philosophy of it. I think you do what got you here and you trust the players. You just have to have a lot of things go right when you play the way he does in the tourney.
Most of the tournament games are played in the 60’s and low 70’s despite whoever the PG is. Knight had scores like that against OSU, UNC and UCONN was in the 50’s. Title game was a low score in 12. ‘14 team won their games in the low to mid 70’s. I won’t understand the philosophy of it. I think you do what got you here and you trust the players. You just have to have a lot of things go right when you play the way he does in the tourney.
All of those games were played at paces either in the mid 60s and low 60s.
So yeah they weren't good offensive performances, but it wasn't horrendous either
I don't think looking at points scored is a good way to view this with the slow pace that UK (with the exception of 17) plays at. People make the same mistake with Virginia and it leads to some false view that they are all defense and no offense which couldn't be further from the truth.
There's also the flipside to this.........Auburn scored 60 against UK in regulation. K-State had 61. Uconn didn't crack 60 in those games.
You get to this part of the tournament and you are facing good teams, good defenses. The offense is always going to take a dip.
Here's the # of possessions and UK and opponent points per possesion for 2018-19. Make of it what you will.
Date Opponent Possessions UK PPP Opp PPP
11/6/2018 Duke 81.1 1.02 1.43
11/28/2018 Monmouth 68.9 1.31 .64
11/9/2018 Southern Illinois 67.8 1.05 .87
11/14/2018 North Dakota 70.3 1.35 .82
11/18/2018 Virginia Military 68.6 1.31 1.17
11/21/2018 Winthrop 78.4 1.1 .94
11/23/2018 Tennessee State 71.5 1.07 .86
12/1/2018 UNC-Greensboro 71.4 1.1 .86
12/8/2018 Seton Hall 77.3 1.07 1.09
12/15/2018 Utah 62.7 1.4 .97
12/22/2018 North Carolina 80.5 .97 .88
12/29/2018 Louisville 61.2 1.14 .93
1/5/2019 Alabama 78.1 .97 .99
1/8/2019 Texas A & M 71.9 1.17 1.02
1/12/2019 Vanderbilt 53.7 1.01 .84
1/15/2019 Georgia 65.2 1.06 .75
1/19/2019 Auburn 67.7 1.2 1.17
1/22/2019 Mississippi State 70.5 1.08 .78
1/26/2019 Kansas 68.9 1.04 .93
1/29/2019 Vanderbilt 65.9 1.32 .79
2/2/2019 Florida 61.6 1.03 .85
2/5/2019 South Carolina 66.8 1.11 .7
2/9/2019 Mississippi State 63.1 1.13 1.07
2/12/2019 Louisiana State 64.9 1.09 1.12
2/16/2019 Tennessee 67.7 1.27 1.02
2/19/2019 Missouri 60.5 1.11 .98
2/23/2019 Auburn 62.7 1.26 .83
2/26/2019 Arkansas 63.2 1.09 1.03
3/2/2019 Tennessee 65.8 .79 1.08
3/5/2019 Mississippi 68.5 1.17 1.11
3/9/2019 Florida 61.2 1.09 .94
3/15/2019 Alabama 65.1 1.12 .84
3/16/2019 Tennessee 65 1.21 1.27
3/21/2019 Abilene Christian 63 .61 .2
3/23/2019 Wofford 59.5 1.04 .93
3/29/2019 Houston 58 1.07 1
3/31/2019 Auburn 74 .96 1.04