The importance of Reid Travis imminent commitment

[bbnkat02]

I hope you are joking because we may never see any team go 40-0.

Ugh. We should have.

I don’t care how old I get. That game will haunt me to a certain extent.

 

[senonesy]

Richards will play more minutes than Montgomery. And he will at times look like our best player next year.

Not a chance. I think Richards will improve and give UK some valuable minutes, but EJ is ranked #6 in the class for a reason

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

Lol. If that’s your projection for forward minutes, you must have three of our guards as permanent benchwarmers.

Cal didn’t recruit four hundred and ninety-seven guards so he could run a three-big lineup like last year. Our offense has always looked its best in a three-guard system. We were top 5 in adjusted offense running Fox, Monk, and Briscoe, and number 1 in the nation running Ulis, Murray, and Briscoe. Add to that Cal’s hints at a four-guard lineup with this team, and I can’t fathom why people are still talking about PJ and Travis playing SF. It will not happen. He may let PJ, Travis, and Montgomery drive the ball and shoot a few threes, but he’s not putting them on the floor together, not with that much shooting and guard talent languishing on the bench.

50% 3-guards, 50% 3-bigs
That is assuming the bigs make shots from outside. PJ shoots 20% from 3, and he will be sent back to the post. Same for Travis & EJ. In that instance, then we would see more (say 75-85%) 3 guards (if you are calling Johnson a guard).
The only guard I'm seeing "as a permanent benchwarmer" is Baker.

30 PJ, 28 Travis, 22 Richards, 18 Montgomery
26 Green, 26 Hagans, 22 Johnson, 16 Quickley, 10 Herro, 2 Baker

If Cal is "not putting PJ & Travis on the floor together", then we ain't getting Travis because that would put him at a max of 20 mpg.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

Not a chance. I think Richards will improve and give UK some valuable minutes, but EJ is ranked #6 in the class for a reason

I've seen Montgomery ranked #10. Richards was like #15-17. That is not a significant difference (5-10 vs 15-20). Add in the 1 year of experience, and they should be fairly "equal".

 

[bucsrule8872]

I think the minutes end up something like this (give or take a few minutes):

Hagans- 25
Johnson- 25
Washington- 25
Travis- 25
Montgomery- 25
Green- 25
Quickley- 20
Richards- 20
Herro- 10

Baker won't be in the regular rotation, IMHO.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

50% 3-guards, 50% 3-bigs
That is assuming the bigs make shots from outside. PJ shoots 20% from 3, and he will be sent back to the post. Same for Travis & EJ. In that instance, then we would see more (say 75-85%) 3 guards (if you are calling Johnson a guard).
The only guard I'm seeing "as a permanent benchwarmer" is Baker.

30 PJ, 28 Travis, 22 Richards, 18 Montgomery
26 Green, 26 Hagans, 22 Johnson, 16 Quickley, 10 Herro, 2 Baker

If Cal is "not putting PJ & Travis on the floor together", then we ain't getting Travis because that would put him at a max of 20 mpg.

Any rotation that projects Keldon Johnson getting 22 minutes and Immanuel Quickley getting 16 is suspect in my book. KJ will be far and away our best option at SF. In many ways, he has the least competition for his minutes of any player on the team. Anticipate him getting 25+. Ditto for Quickley. Cal picked this guy to run his U19 squad, and he did a fine job. Quickley can play and defend three positions effectively. He’s a 40% 3P shooter with point guard skills, athleticism, and good length. He is the single most versatile player on the roster, and we will want him on the floor constantly. So again, pencil IQ in for at least 25 minutes.

With those obvious corrections out of the way, Herro and Baker never see the floor (literally zero minutes), and Montgomery is totally underutilized at 18 minutes. So we’re still not looking realistic yet.

More realistic is the following: We have a seven-man “Tier 1” rotation. These seven all get great minutes and are nearly interchangeable within their roles. Only five can start, but all seven are “starter quality.” They all get about 23-28 minutes per game.

Hagans
Green
Johnson
Quickley
Montgomery
Washington
Travis

Tier 2 is our subs. They’re all solid players, but they won’t match minutes with Tier 1. Just a slight step down in quality. These guys get 3-15 minutes depending on team needs.

Richards
Herro
Baker

Obviously, I would love to be wrong and find out we’re in a platoon depth situation with only a negligible production gap between our number 1 guy and our number 10 guy. In that situation, we’re looking at all 10 getting right around 20 minutes each, kind of like 2014-15. But I think the above projection is much more realistic. Richards, Baker, and Herro all have sky-high potential, but they’re gonna need a little more growing time than the others.

 

[DreDay247]

You guys are hating way too much on Richards. Statistically, he was pretty good last year. I KNOW there were problems with his play that don't show up statistically! But IMO many of those are easily corrected in the weight room and with some grip strength work. His per-30-min averages were 10.4 pts, 9.0 reb, and 1.8 blks. He made 61% of his shots, and 71% of his FTs. The biggest thing that needs improvement is his ability to recognize where he needs to be on the defensive end when there are switches or if someone gets past their guy (w/ rotations). You have to believe he will be ahead of the FR in that area.

Also there will be more than 80 mpg divided among PJ, Travis, Richards, & EJ. Johnson and the guards will get a decent number of the SF minutes, but NOT all 40 of them.
You know Cal sold Travis on being able to play on the perimeter some. And that is what PJ wants to do too, because he now knows that NBA teams find him too undersized to be a PF. So both of those guys will be given the opportunity to play some SF (as long as they make some shots).
My projections on minutes:
30 Washington
28 Travis
22 Richards
18 Montgomery

I'm sorry but this whole Reid and PJ playing the 3 is nonsense, I honestly see Montgomery more likely to play the 3 than them. Yes if he did say something about playing more on the perimeter (which how would you know that he said that) then that means as a STRETCH FOUR, not a 3, PJ for one is not near good enough ball handler to play the 3, though a better ball handler Reid isn't either. Both will both play a lil bit on the perimeter, but as a stretch 4 so they can show they have a jumpshot, not as a wing to show they can be small forwards because they can't. The idea of letting either play the 3 is silly. They don't have the ball handling skills or the lateral quickness to guard opposing 3's. What's even sillier is to think they'll create even more of a logjam at the 1-3 spots between 6 guards than there already is just to get Richards more clock.

 

[Panthur]

I hope you are joking because we may never see any team go 40-0.

Of course we may never. And you know what? We also may. We may this very season if we get Travis.

I’m going to have to watch a team for a good while before I actually start wanting to predict a 40-0 season. But screw anybody who thinks I shouldn’t be able to talk about the possibility.

None of us can predict the future. And that’s why I’ll never ever buy into the BS that people can act like fortune tellers and claim it can never happen, and everyone respects them, but if anyone says well maybe it could happen, then somehow they’re supposed to be an idiot. (I type this three months after a 16-seed shellacked the fire out of an overall #1 seed and one month after a supposedly short-dry-track-only colt became only the second undefeated horse to ever win a triple crown). Anything can happen and when something really interesting starts to look possible, I don’t mind talking about the fact that it’s looking possible. That’s what people do. Except the people who are too beaten down by the anti-40-0 shaming that goes on around here. But I don’t give two poops about that kind of peer pressure.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

I'm sorry but this whole Reid and PJ playing the 3 is nonsense, I honestly see Montgomery more likely to play the 3 than them. Yes if he did say something about playing more on the perimeter (which how would you know that he said that) then that means as a STRETCH FOUR, not a 3, PJ for one is not near good enough ball handler to play the 3, though a better ball handler Reid isn't either. Both will both play a lil bit on the perimeter, but as a stretch 4 so they can show they have a jumpsuit, not as a 3. The idea of letting either play the 3 is silly. They don't have the ball handling skills or the lateral quickness to guard opposing 3's. What's even sillier is to think they'll create even more of a logjam at the 1-3 spots between 6 guards than there already is just to get Richards more clock.

Exactly. The thought of PJ and Travis trying to make guard moves and shoot threes as dedicated wings with two other bigs on the floor makes me cringe.

People are worrying too much about minutes and position labels. It rarely pans out as an issue for bigs anyway because they’re so prone to foul trouble, injuries, and fatigue (especially when they’re running the floor to Cal’s standards). We were overflowing with forwards last season and still had some games where fouls had us thin in the frontcourt. There are enough minutes for Richards to get the PT he deserves without using our other bigs suicidally.

 

[BlueGene5]

I think the minutes end up something like this (give or take a few minutes):

Hagans- 25
Johnson- 25
Washington- 25
Travis- 25
Montgomery- 25
Green- 25
Quickley- 20
Richards- 20
Herro- 10

Baker won't be in the regular rotation, IMHO.

respectfully disagree with your Baker opinion. Don't underestimate the bomber.

 

[DreDay247]

Any rotation that projects Keldon Johnson getting 22 minutes and Immanuel Quickley getting 16 is suspect in my book. KJ will be far and away our best option at SF. In many ways, he has the least competition for his minutes of any player on the team. Anticipate him getting 25+. Ditto for Quickley. Cal picked this guy to run his U19 squad, and he did a fine job. Quickley can play and defend three positions effectively. He’s a 40% 3P shooter with point guard skills, athleticism, and good length. He is the single most versatile player on the roster, and we will want him on the floor constantly. So again, pencil IQ in for at least 25 minutes.

With those obvious corrections out of the way, Herro and Baker never see the floor (literally zero minutes), and Montgomery is totally underutilized at 18 minutes. So we’re still not looking realistic yet.

More realistic is the following: We have a seven-man “Tier 1” rotation. These seven all get great minutes and are nearly interchangeable within their roles. Only five can start, but all seven are “starter quality.” They all get about 23-28 minutes per game.

Hagans
Green
Johnson
Quickley
Montgomery
Washington
Travis

Tier 2 is our subs. They’re all solid players, but they won’t match minutes with Tier 1. Just a slight step down in quality. These guys get 3-15 minutes depending on team needs.

Richards
Herro
Baker

Obviously, I would love to be wrong and find out we’re in a platoon depth situation with only a negligible production gap between our number 1 guy and our number 10 guy. In that situation, we’re looking at all 10 getting right around 20 minutes each, kind of like 2014-15. But I think the above projection is much more realistic. Richards, Baker, and Herro all have sky-high potential, but they’re gonna need a little more growing time than the others.

Even though we tend to agree more times than not. I'd like to respectfully disagree with your thoughts on Quickley, I think he's a surefire multi year player that will be towards the back end of the rotation seeing somewhere around 15 mpg rather than a regular guy. I like his game, he's a good player, but he's going to take time IMO. I think him and baker will see the same amount of clock, and with Herro IMO being our best all around offensive scorer I feel like he will have to play around 18-22 mpg. You're right about KJ though, kid is a stud and is our best wing by a longshot. Him and Hagans are both stars that'll command the time and will be IMO the best 1/2 defensive guard combo we've ever had. They both will be 2 of the best defenders in CBB.

With all these good/great players though having to split minutes, I think this team is going to have to play a 40 minutes of hell type of game to maximize our number of possessions to make up for the minutes being split between so many. We are going to press non stop and run more than any team in the cal era IMO. I just really hope for once our fullcourt press is a fullcourt zone, fullcourt man to man couldn't be anymore pointless and ineffective and that's what we always run instead of trying to trap players in the corners and using length to force TO's, man in half court the whole time is cool, but in the fullcourt it couldn't be more pointless.

We are going to wear teams out because of our deep bench and because since we won't have any players getting tired, we're just going to keep coming at teams in waves running non stop because teams won't be deep enough to not get blown out especially with us maximizing the number of possessions in a game and always staying fresh.

 

[bucsrule8872]

respectfully disagree with your Baker opinion. Don't underestimate the bomber.

I would be fine with that, but who's minutes does he take?

 

[lkc1021]

Whether we get Travis is another question. But if we do get Travis I’ll start talking 40-0 and I don’t give an ish who doesn’t like it.

I don't like it.

 

[lkc1021]

Even though we tend to agree more times than not. I'd like to respectfully disagree with your thoughts on Quickley, I think he's a surefire multi year player that will be towards the back end of the rotation seeing somewhere around 15 mpg rather than a regular guy. I like his game, he's a good player, but he's going to take time IMO. I think him and baker will see the same amount of clock, and with Herro IMO being our best all around offensive scorer I feel like he will have to play around 18-22 mpg. You're right about KJ though, kid is a stud and is our best wing by a longshot. Him and Hagans are both stars that'll command the time and will be IMO the best 1/2 defensive guard combo we've ever had. They both will be 2 of the best defenders in CBB.

With all these good/great players though having to split minutes, I think this team is going to have to play a 40 minutes of hell type of game to maximize our number of possessions to make up for the minutes being split between so many. We are going to press non stop and run more than any team in the cal era IMO. I just really hope for once our fullcourt press is a fullcourt zone, fullcourt man to man couldn't be anymore pointless and ineffective and that's what we always run instead of trying to trap players in the corners and using length to force TO's, man in half court the whole time is cool, but in the fullcourt it couldn't be more pointless.

We are going to wear teams out because of our deep bench and because since we won't have any players getting tired, we're just going to keep coming at teams in waves running non stop because teams won't be deep enough to not get blown out especially with us maximizing the number of possessions in a game and always staying fresh.

Really

 

[DerekMcPwn]

Even though we tend to agree more times than not. I'd like to respectfully disagree with your thoughts on Quickley, I think he's a surefire multi year player that will be towards the back end of the rotation seeing somewhere around 15 mpg rather than a regular guy. I like his game, he's a good player, but he's going to take time IMO. I think him and baker will see the same amount of clock, and with Herro IMO being our best all around offensive scorer I feel like he will have to play around 18-22 mpg. You're right about KJ though, kid is a stud and is our best wing by a longshot. Him and Hagans are both stars that'll command the time and will be IMO the best 1/2 defensive guard combo we've ever had. They both will be 2 of the best defenders in CBB.

With all these good/great players though having to split minutes, I think this team is going to have to play a 40 minutes of hell type of game to maximize our number of possessions to make up for the minutes being split between so many. We are going to press non stop and run more than any team in the cal era IMO. I just really hope for once our fullcourt press is a fullcourt zone, fullcourt man to man couldn't be anymore pointless and ineffective and that's what we always run instead of trying to trap players in the corners and using length to force TO's, man in half court the whole time is cool, but in the fullcourt it couldn't be more pointless.

We are going to wear teams out because of our deep bench and because since we won't have any players getting tired, we're just going to keep coming at teams in waves running non stop because teams won't be deep enough to not get blown out especially with us maximizing the number of possessions in a game and always staying fresh.

I dunno, man. IQ has a reputation for unselfishness and as a super-competitor that plays tight defense every possession. Those are Cal qualities that will keep him in the game even when his shot isn’t falling.

 

[senonesy]

I dunno, man. IQ has a reputation for unselfishness and as a super-competitor that plays tight defense every possession. Those are Cal qualities that will keep him in the game even when his shot isn’t falling.

Quickly will play more than Herro. That much I’m pretty sure of. No way Herro gets 18-22 min a game

 

[senonesy]

Even though we tend to agree more times than not. I'd like to respectfully disagree with your thoughts on Quickley, I think he's a surefire multi year player that will be towards the back end of the rotation seeing somewhere around 15 mpg rather than a regular guy. I like his game, he's a good player, but he's going to take time IMO. I think him and baker will see the same amount of clock, and with Herro IMO being our best all around offensive scorer I feel like he will have to play around 18-22 mpg. You're right about KJ though, kid is a stud and is our best wing by a longshot. Him and Hagans are both stars that'll command the time and will be IMO the best 1/2 defensive guard combo we've ever had. They both will be 2 of the best defenders in CBB.

With all these good/great players though having to split minutes, I think this team is going to have to play a 40 minutes of hell type of game to maximize our number of possessions to make up for the minutes being split between so many. We are going to press non stop and run more than any team in the cal era IMO. I just really hope for once our fullcourt press is a fullcourt zone, fullcourt man to man couldn't be anymore pointless and ineffective and that's what we always run instead of trying to trap players in the corners and using length to force TO's, man in half court the whole time is cool, but in the fullcourt it couldn't be more pointless.

We are going to wear teams out because of our deep bench and because since we won't have any players getting tired, we're just going to keep coming at teams in waves running non stop because teams won't be deep enough to not get blown out especially with us maximizing the number of possessions in a game and always staying fresh.

Quickley will be ahead of Herro and I believe it is Herro that will take some time and be the in the bottom of the rotation.

 

[DreDay247]

I dunno, man. IQ has a reputation for unselfishness and as a super-competitor that plays tight defense every possession. Those are Cal qualities that will keep him in the game even when his shot isn’t falling.

I see a lot of people saying the same thing, I just feel like herro is even better than Booker was at this stage in each's career. Herro is a great passer, the team around him in HS was pretty weak so he was pretty much double teamed the entire season. The thing I like so much about him though is his all around game, his mid range game is impeccable, he's a great passer and really good ball handler, he'll need to become better at defense, but with cal's philosophy changing so much towards wanting to shoot great, I think he has to play him or baker when hagans and kj are one floor at the same time because they're great slashers and below average three point shooters.

BUT, KJ has one of the best mid range games in the country though and a picture perfect form that could make him become even a fantastic 3 point shooter with some work. I also think Herro has an equally as good mid range game if not better. But the thing that I think Herro does better than anyone else on the roster, is hit shots while being heavily contested, not saying he's Jamal Murray, but in that regard as far as ability to hit shots over heavy contests is second to none. I think Herro will be a huge surprise and force cal to play him. But the beauty of it all is we will get to see how it will play out, just legitamately think Herro is going to surprise everyone. His feel for the game and ability to hit contested shots is truly special. Also an underrated athlete IMO.

 

[Elliott Tim]

Is it amazing when one considers that the lifeblood of this message board is recruiting, and that Duke beat UK for our principle targets in the fall and midwinter

The Spring resurgence in promising. K wanted Montgomery and K would love to have Travis. If Cal adds both guys, it's 2-0 against K since Capel left. That kind of stuff matters, considering UK's entire on-the-court fortunes are based on recruiting.

Tongue in cheek.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

I see a lot of people saying the same thing, I just feel like herro is even better than Booker was at this stage in each's career. Herro is a great passer, the team around him in HS was pretty weak so he was pretty much double teamed the entire season. The thing I like so much about him though is his all around game, his mid range game is impeccable, he's a great passer and really good ball handler, he'll need to become better at defense, but with cal's philosophy changing so much towards wanting to shoot great, I think he has to play him or baker when hagans and kj are one floor at the same time because they're great slashers and below average three point shooters.

BUT, KJ has one of the best mid range games in the country though and a picture perfect form that could make him become even a fantastic 3 point shooter with some work. I also think Herro has an equally as good mid range game if not better. But the thing that I think Herro does better than anyone else on the roster, is hit shots while being heavily contested, not saying he's Jamal Murray, but in that regard as far as ability to hit shots over heavy contests is second to none. I think Herro will be a huge surprise and force cal to play him. But the beauty of it all is we will get to see how it will play out, just legitamately think Herro is going to surprise everyone. His feel for the game and ability to hit contested shots is truly special. Also an underrated athlete IMO.

I agree with a lot of what you said, I’m just not sure Herro will defend at the level Cal demands. He also has a tendency to take the hardest possible shot, especially long, step-back, fadeaway two-pointers. That’s gonna frustrate Cal (and the fans) endlessly. It’s a thing of beauty when they swish through the net, and he’s a great shooter, so they often do. But it leads to Malik Monk-type streakiness where he can go 0 for 8, because those shots aren’t well integrated with easy layups and open, catch-and-shoot opportunities.

But that’s a minor issue. My bigger disagreement is I cannot imagine Quickley being a disappointment or even a slow learner. If he’d been playing the 2 in Diallo’s spot last season, we make the Final Four easy. He’s just a perfect Calipari guard. Long, physical, fast, and doesn’t take plays off. He put up quite a few triple doubles during his last year of high school. He does a lot of dirty work, picking up assists, rebounds, and steals, and that unselfish approach limited his number of gaudy point totals, which is one reason for his lower rank (imo).

 

[DreDay247]

50% 3-guards, 50% 3-bigs
That is assuming the bigs make shots from outside. PJ shoots 20% from 3, and he will be sent back to the post. Same for Travis & EJ. In that instance, then we would see more (say 75-85%) 3 guards (if you are calling Johnson a guard).
The only guard I'm seeing "as a permanent benchwarmer" is Baker.

30 PJ, 28 Travis, 22 Richards, 18 Montgomery
26 Green, 26 Hagans, 22 Johnson, 16 Quickley, 10 Herro, 2 Baker

If Cal is "not putting PJ & Travis on the floor together", then we ain't getting Travis because that would put him at a max of 20 mpg.

Just noticed this.

Our best player playing 22 mpg and 6 less than PJ? Nah no way.

 

[1991greywildcat]

I agree with a lot of what you said, I’m just not sure Herro will defend at the level Cal demands. He also has a tendency to take the hardest possible shot, especially long, step-back, fadeaway two-pointers. That’s gonna frustrate Cal (and the fans) endlessly. It’s a thing of beauty when they swish through the net, and he’s a great shooter, so they often do. But it leads to Malik Monk-type streakiness where he can go 0 for 8, because those shots aren’t well integrated with easy layups and open, catch-and-shoot opportunities.

But that’s a minor issue. My bigger disagreement is I cannot imagine Quickley being a disappointment or even a slow learner. If he’d been playing the 2 in Diallo’s spot last season, we make the Final Four easy. He’s just a perfect Calipari guard. Long, physical, fast, and doesn’t take plays off. He put up quite a few triple doubles during his last year of high school. He does a lot of dirty work, picking up assists, rebounds, and steals, and that unselfish approach limited his number of gaudy point totals, which is one reason for his lower rank (imo).

Herro is not taking playing time from Baker this year, he is not as good. Will see some though, especially when Cal starts throwing out those, three and four gaurd Houston type lineups..

 

[kyjeff1]

If Baker is as good a shooter as everyone is saying he is, I hope Cal finds as many minutes for him as possible.
It all starts on the defensive side of the court, but if current and outgoing players are going out of their way to say that Baker is the best shooter they've ever played with or against...he must be a dead eye shooter and I would love to see a guy like that on the floor as much as possible. It will stretch the floor and allow our other guys to drive at will.

 

[Panthur]

I don't like it.

But will you give me a like for it?