Has anyone seen an opening (early) for the Florida game Saturday... I smell a good Money line opportunity... However it will not be as sweet as the West Virginia line... I guess 6.5 dogs
Early Odds on Florida!
- Thread starter BLUEinface
- Start date
Guarantee it will be 5 or more... Been at this a long time.. They bet the Ole Miss game down from 11 to 8.5... That is a huge move... They (Vegas) are not sold yet because of youth and inconsistency... In last six at Florida we are 2-4 against the number... Throw in the fact Florida has looked very good in last 2 beating Auburn and destroying Bama...
So we are setting a line on the line,I like it.I believe it will be under 5,but let's say 5.5 so that someone is clearly right.We will see.
I will post as SOON as line is available... thinking it might be 4 -5 now as well...
Lol you obviously don’t know the formulaic they use to determine point spread. It will be -1.5 or -2
A lot of things to like about beating Ole Miss at home, but we still struggled defensively and still made some bone headed mistakes.
You can't get by Florida, at their place, playing like we did the other night.
You can't get by Florida, at their place, playing like we did the other night.
Agree,probably the worst of our last 4 games,hope we are more focused in the UF game.
Fun fact: 95% of late season college basketball lines are determined by Jeff Sagarins index.
Subtract predictors and add HCA if applicable.
For this game, Kentucky is an 87.7 rating and Florida is 86.46. That equals Kentucky -1.31. HCA this season is 3.17. Which means Florida ends up -1.86 (or 2).
There can be a half point or point adjustment based on trends, maybe more if there is a major injury or suspension. Neither of which apply here.
The line is Florida -2, but I’d range it -1.5 to -2.5 depending on how they feel about early money and our current double-digit point win streak.
The gators don't have anyone to take up that much space down low,sure is a wide body
I was about to say the same. It may end up over 5, but it will open somewhere in the 2-3 range.
Sagain has 3 different models, one of which is focused on more recent games:
"The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend."
I just noticed that for that set of rankings, your University of Kentucky Wildcats are #1 in the country.....
Not quite as intimidating as the gator but a scary looking dude if you are a Florida basketball player.Prediction: This guy gonna be hongry...
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57066385/JARRED_VANDERBILT_MBall_2017_27_rv21u7.0.jpg)
No I do not know exactly and it is NO formula... It is based on HOW they think the public will bet... And they HAVE not been playing UK recently like in the past...
16 boards 14 points sounds about right...
Best rebounder we have had since maybe Bennett... excluding Davis of course... for forwards
LOL zero chance UK will be a 5 pt underdog . Just zero. It will be 2.5 or something like that.
But @BLUEinface says there’s no formula and he knows more about Vegas odds than Sagarins index! You have to be wrong...
I don't know if any of this is true. And I'm not even sure I completely understand it. But regardless, it's pretty freakin' impressive.
UK +5 would not surprise me. Not sure why everyone saying no way. We were -8.5 at home against Ole Miss earlier this week at one point. Road game against a superior opponent would make me think +5 could be in line.
The line opened at U.K. -11. Bettors took it down to 8.5. Until these last few games Kentucky has been piss poor at covering as a favorite. Still, Ole Miss is a 77.68 rating and U.K. a 87.7. That’s 10 plus home court, so you would’ve expected a 12.5-13 open line. They adjusted down about a point because of our non cover as favorite trend. So it was pretty much dead on.
Movement money of course plays a role in the final line, but not in the open.
I don't know, I could be wrong, but my impression is that Sagarin and Pomeroy and the like have taken much of the mystery out of betting lines. It's usually pretty predictable. Which is what always puzzles me about those who say "All Vegas does when setting a line is try to make sure the same money is bet on both sides. It's all about pubic/betting perception of the two teams, has nothing to do with the teams themselves." That can't be right, or else Sagarin wouldn't be able to predict the line so accurately. Pretty sure his algorithms are all about the performance/power ratings of each team, and aren't an attempt to predict betting habits of Americans.....
Must have not been at it that long. I guarantee it will NOT be 5 or more. My guess is 2.5. No way it is over 5. What so 90% of the money goes on UK?
I wouldn't fight him inside a phone booth! :grimace:Prediction: This guy gonna be hongry...
How much do you give them for playing at Home?
https://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/who-sets-line