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The NIT is a real possibility

T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
31,943
25,083
113
CincyUKFan said:
Current Record: 17-7

Remaining games, with predictions:

@TAMU (LOSS)
@AUB (LOSS)
BAMA (WIN)
@ARK (LOSS)
MIZZ (WIN - will Michael Porter play? they already beat us at their place - could lose)
MISS (WIN)
@FLA (LOSS)

The above is most likely to happen, but we could potentially lose to BAMA and MIZZ at home. If we do take care of those games, our projected record is:

20-11.

We will have lost 6 of our final 10 regular season games. Then, we will lose another in the SECT. If we lose in the early rounds, finishing 20-12 or 21-12, I'd say it is likely we wind up in the NIT. The same goes for a loss at home to BAMA or MIZZ.
Click to expand...

We'll be favored in the home games and dogs in the other ones. Going 3-4 is realistic.

But where I think you are off is when u say 21-12 (lets be honest we'll be favored in at least one SEC game in the tournament), won't get us in. I totally disagree with that assessment. 21-12 will get us in IMO
 
C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
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TheBigBlueSpectacle said:
I understand how a lot of things work, including elementary tourney seeding. Thanks

You’re assuming this team wins out from here .... pencil in more losses including bad ones going forward because this group doesn’t care to figure anything out. Lose 2 or 3 of the next four and then what? It won’t be a freaking 5 or 6 seed. Ridiculous. Just blind
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The pumpers don't like it when you use logic and reason. Be careful.
 
senonesy

senonesy

All-American
Nov 30, 2017
4,173
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113
TheBigBlueSpectacle said:
I understand how a lot of things work, including elementary tourney seeding. Thanks

You’re assuming this team wins out from here .... pencil in more losses including bad ones going forward because this group doesn’t care to figure anything out. Lose 2 or 3 of the next four and then what? It won’t be a freaking 5 or 6 seed. Ridiculous. Just blind
Click to expand...
Once again I said as of today they are a 6 seed. Read before responding next time.
 
T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
31,943
25,083
113
The fact of the matter is those roads games we'll be dogs by less points (except for the Auburn one) than we are favorites in the home games.

It's more likely we pick up a road victory than blow one at home IOW.
 
C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
7,578
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The_Answer1313 said:
We'll be favored in the home games and dogs in the other ones. Going 3-4 is realistic.

But where I think you are off is when u say 21-12 (lets be honest we'll be favored in at least one SEC game in the tournament), won't get us in. I totally disagree with that assessment. 21-12 will get us in IMO
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It remains to be seen. People keep talking about Quadrant 1 wins and losses, and I get all that. But how you finish is huge year in and year out. And we're at our worst down the homestretch.

And those quality wins and losses look less and less impressive every day. We really have three non-conference wins of note: WVU, UL, VT. The losses are starting to pile up for them. Meanwhile, UCLA will lose 10 or 11, SCJr will lose 14 or 15, MIZZ will finish with at least 10 losses. So losing to those teams does not look so good.

As I said, lose all the road games and lose one at home, then we're in big trouble.
 
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T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
31,943
25,083
113
CincyUKFan said:
It remains to be seen. People keep talking about Quadrant 1 wins and losses, and I get all that. But how you finish is huge year in and year out. And we're at our worst down the homestretch.

And those quality wins and losses look less and less impressive every day. We really have three non-conference wins of note: WVU, UL, VT. The losses are starting to pile up for them. Meanwhile, UCLA will lose 10 or 11, SCJr will lose 14 or 15, MIZZ will finish with at least 10 losses. So losing to those teams does not look so good.

As I said, lose all the road games and lose one at home, then we're in big trouble.
Click to expand...

From what I've seen last 10 games never really had a major impact. They really just care about who you beat.

The thing is if you start looking at teams around that 10/11 seed line.....UK has them beat. That could change obviously we still have many games to go but I don't see a 21-12 UK team not making it.
 
K

kevcat

Heisman
Feb 26, 2007
27,686
32,625
0
CincyUKFan said:
It remains to be seen. People keep talking about Quadrant 1 wins and losses, and I get all that. But how you finish is huge year in and year out. And we're at our worst down the homestretch.

And those quality wins and losses look less and less impressive every day. We really have three non-conference wins of note: WVU, UL, VT. The losses are starting to pile up for them. Meanwhile, UCLA will lose 10 or 11, SCJr will lose 14 or 15, MIZZ will finish with at least 10 losses. So losing to those teams does not look so good.

As I said, lose all the road games and lose one at home, then we're in big trouble.
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Look Dude, even by your silly standards, you’re way too negative. I’ve defended you to some degree, but quit with this stuff.
Our defense is crazy good now. The offense has to get better. We’ll beat Auburn, and everything will be fine.
 
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C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
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The_Answer1313 said:
From what I've seen last 10 games never really had a major impact. They really just care about who you beat.

The thing is if you start looking at teams around that 10/11 seed line.....UK has them beat. That could change obviously we still have many games to go but I don't see a 21-12 UK team not making it.
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This leads us to another question. If we do manage to limp into the tournament, is that's cause for celebration? If you make the tourney as a 9,10, or 11 seed, is this something to hang your hat on?

Because if we do make the tournament, there will be no run to follow. We will lose either the first or second game.
 
T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
31,943
25,083
113
Another thing........computer metrics are supposed to play a bigger role this season.

We are 29th in Kenpom and 18th in Sagarin.

By any respectable metric, although this team drives us nuts.........we should be in the tournament.
 
T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
31,943
25,083
113
CincyUKFan said:
This leads us to another question. If we do manage to limp into the tournament, is that's cause for celebration? If you make the tourney as a 9,10, or 11 seed, is this something to hang your hat on?

Because if we do make the tournament, there will be no run to follow. We will lose either the first or second game.
Click to expand...

I guess you could point to 2014 where we were an 8 seed and made it to the final four.

Do I think this team could make a 2014 type run? No. Not right now.

But when that team lost at South Carolina in 2014.......I thought the same thing.

It's February 6th. It's getting late. But I guess I'm still hopeful they figure this thing out before March and before they are NIT bound.
 
flacat22

flacat22

Heisman
Mar 12, 2011
8,533
12,475
113
CincyUKFan said:
This leads us to another question. If we do manage to limp into the tournament, is that's cause for celebration? If you make the tourney as a 9,10, or 11 seed, is this something to hang your hat on?

Because if we do make the tournament, there will be no run to follow. We will lose either the first or second game.
Click to expand...


“Us?” “We?” Okkk...
 
C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
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kev69 said:
Look Dude, even by your silly standards, you’re way too negative. I’ve defended you to some degree, but quit with this stuff.
Our defense is crazy good now. The offense has to get better. We’ll beat Auburn, and everything will be fine.
Click to expand...
I appreciate the defense. But there's a vast difference between being negative and being realistic. At times, I'm quite negative. But in this thread, I'm being quite realistic.

Others said we'd win at MIZZ and at home to UT. I said we wouldn't. I was realistic, they were not. Now, in saying we're going to somehow beat Auburn on the road, you are being unrealistic.

Look, I hope that happens. That would secure a spot in the tourney. But that's just a ludicrous thing to actually believe. Auburn will not only win, they likely win by double digits.
 
C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
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The_Answer1313 said:
I guess you could point to 2014 where we were an 8 seed and made it to the final four.

Do I think this team could make a 2014 type run? No. Not right now.

But when that team lost at South Carolina in 2014.......I thought the same thing.

It's February 6th. It's getting late. But I guess I'm still hopeful they figure this thing out before March and before they are NIT bound.
Click to expand...
This team just doesn't have the horses or IQ that the 2014 team had. This team is a lay down, move on, pack your bags, get ready for the NBA workouts kind of team.
 
S

sambowieshin_rivals

Heisman
Nov 27, 2009
21,246
21,450
0
This team does not have what it takes to make a miracle run. You can see it in their eyes and body language. They look like a deer in headlights that can't believe they aren't heading straight to the NBA.
 
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C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
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The_Answer1313 said:
I don't disagree with that.

Tho I'm not sure we have to be 2014 level to make a run.

Just the right matchups.
Click to expand...
It's hard to get the right matchups when you're seeded that poorly. We always seem to be in the bracket that never falls apart. It would be nice, for a change, to have a bracket where the top seeds collapse.
 
C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
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TheBigBlueSpectacle said:
I understand the point but why make it? Fact is the Auburn game and other road games aren’t going away and these guys have to face them. They aren’t ready
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It's very strange to point out what a bracketology website says today, without consideration of what is to come. Very strange.
 
C

CHAMPCAT11

All-American
Jun 16, 2009
10,001
7,566
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kev69 said:
Look Dude, even by your silly standards, you’re way too negative. I’ve defended you to some degree, but quit with this stuff.
Our defense is crazy good now. The offense has to get better. We’ll beat Auburn, and everything will be fine.
Click to expand...

You say “We’ll beat Auburn”. I’m not being a jerk. I assure you I hope like hell we beat them after reading posts from their ignorant obnoxious fans but they figure to absolutely whip our ***. They’re better than us, they’re at home, and they’ll be focused and fired up. Half of our guys are sleepwalking and flat out don’t care if they win or lose.
 
C

CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
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66
CHAMPCAT11 said:
You say “We’ll beat Auburn”. I’m not being a jerk. I assure you I hope like hell we beat them after reading posts from their ignorant obnoxious fans but they figure to absolutely whip our ***. They’re better than us, they’re at home, and they’ll be focused and fired up. Half of our guys are sleepwalking and flat out don’t care if they win or lose.
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I think kev69 decided to troll as the world's biggest pumper tonight and I'm not sure why. He seems like one of the more reasonable posters on RR.

Perhaps this is a coping mechanism. The way he's dealing with what went down tonight. I might try it myself. Here goes:

I have every reason to believe we will not only reach the final four this year, but we will do so while having an average margin of victory of 15 points.
 
seccats04

seccats04

Heisman
Dec 6, 2004
14,562
23,531
113
But let's keep hearing about the 4 Final Fours. Cal has turned into ten loss Tubby. This will make the 5th team in 9 years to approach double digit losses (2016 lost 9).

I wish Cal would get back to the way he was at Memphis. Those teams were fun. They had one or two OAD and the rest were really good 3-4 year players.
 
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K

Kampus Korner_rivals164031

All-Conference
Mar 23, 2007
12,053
3,107
0
seccats04 said:
But let's keep hearing about the 4 Final Fours. Cal has turned into ten loss Tubby. This will make the 5th team in 9 years to approach double digit losses (2016 lost 9).

I wish Cal would get back to the way he was at Memphis. Those teams were fun. They had one or two OAD and the rest were really good 3-4 year players.
Click to expand...

I “wish”you would become a UK fan or simply post on opposing team’s board. What office do you hold in the Fellowship of the Miserable?
 
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1

10thRegionCat

Freshman
Jan 14, 2018
29
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Just like how winning is contagious, so is losing. When a defeatist attitude starts sweeping through, you better watch out. It's a bad sign when you're beat before you ever walk out on the court.
 
B

Big10Cat

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
1,592
1,791
0
Cal’s Memphis teams were “hungry”. They played like they had something to prove.

If these guys stick around a few years, we might see that. Right now, though, they are missing some pieces and still have lots to learn about the game.
 
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CincyUKFan

All-American
Dec 1, 2009
4,585
7,578
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Bumping this thread for those who wish to acknowledge just how real the possibility of the NIT is now.
 
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