In fairness they handled Purdue rather easily and had a 22 point lead over Baylor before losing...their defense is legitimate...their offense is hit or miss, but you can miss more if you can stop the other team from scoring. I think the cats win, but I think it's ugly.
UL opens a 2 point favorite over UK
- Thread starter RoyKent
- Start date
With ZERO elite players vs a team of nba guys how can this game be closer than 15-20.
I'd guess around UK -8 on a neutral floor and without the rivalry aspect. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 2 points based on the fact that we are coming off that UNC game as well.
My Christmas wish is that Bam does not get baited by those cheats into some kind of altercation.
Yes, and they are ranked in the top 10. We aren't THAT good and they aren't THAT bad.
Who would that be? As usual with Cal we have a team of nba players...do they have any especially at the guard spot?
Cal beat Rick by double digits at a neutral site when Rick had the greatest CBB of all time with 8 NBA players while Cal had 2 high major recruits and a bunch of scrubs that nobody else sneezed at.
And he's 8-1 vs the guy now that they're both at big boy schools.
So I'm not sure what your point is.
-.5 is not a betting number in basketball unless it's due to being involved in a teaser. They start at pk, which is pick em, then go to -1. After that they will then go up by half point increments.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/
Unless I'm reading that wrong it opened with UL-2, correct?
VegasInsider is a guess, real line will not be out until early evening. My guess is UK -3.
This is bad news IMO. Most people will bet on Kentucky with that point spread, NCAA allows Louisville to win so vegas makes money. Mark it down
Edit: Louisville wins by at least 3. Hope I'm wrong but wouldn't surprise me
Edit: Louisville wins by at least 3. Hope I'm wrong but wouldn't surprise me
"...had a 22 point lead over...before losing..."
"...their defense is legitimate..."
Somehow these two statements directly contradict one another. They let a team win from 22 down, but their defense is legit? I don't care what the stats say on their defensive ranking - they played Purdue and Baylor - and the rest were crap teams. And Baylor came back on that "legitimate defense" to the tune of 22+ down to win.
Color me skeptical that their D is really that good. I don't think it's going to be good enough to keep the Cats from scoring 75+ points. I do think our defense and their pedestrian offense will make it tough for them to score more than 60-65.
This means it will be a ugly game with a lot of foul calls. I don't like the line. It's too good to be true if betting on Kentucky.
Not a surprise that it opened at UL -2. Sagarin is really good at giving you the unvarnished spread, and he has it as UL -2.18.
For the person who said they haven't played anyone, Louisville is 2-1 vs top 25 teams, UK is 1-1 vs top 25 teams (again Sagarin). So they've played more good teams than we have. Further, their schedule rank is 85, ours is 116.
And for the person who asked whether they had anyone in their top 8 that would play for us - it's not all about talent. Experience is a factor. Sometimes a senior who doesn't have NBA talent is better in a particular game or for a particular team than a freshman who does. Depends. One amazing thing about this rivalry of late is that Cal's freshmen have consistently beaten Pitino's juniors and seniors.
For the person who said they haven't played anyone, Louisville is 2-1 vs top 25 teams, UK is 1-1 vs top 25 teams (again Sagarin). So they've played more good teams than we have. Further, their schedule rank is 85, ours is 116.
And for the person who asked whether they had anyone in their top 8 that would play for us - it's not all about talent. Experience is a factor. Sometimes a senior who doesn't have NBA talent is better in a particular game or for a particular team than a freshman who does. Depends. One amazing thing about this rivalry of late is that Cal's freshmen have consistently beaten Pitino's juniors and seniors.
Worst thing I've read all day . Its the biggest " sucker" bet in a while . One of those where Vegas gets the public thinking " easy money " and before you know it they have fleeced ya ' . Look for us to get screwed badly and lose , Vegas might as well announced the fix is in . We should be a 2-4 point favorite.
I believe the Baylor game was their 3rd game in 3 days, so they were tired in the 2nd half when Baylor made their come back.
I still don't get that line. If VegasInsider accepts bets (idk, do they?) you have to feel like the money comes in heavy on UK if the line is UL -2. Vegas odds aren't about predicting the final margin. Ideally it's about setting the line where the books receive equal money on each side, and thus they guarantee profit from the "juice." At UL -2, you have to feel like money floods in on UK, at which point Vegas risks their profits in the event UK covers. Unless of course there is equal money coming in at UL -2, but I think even UL fans are scratching their heads at that line... I'm not familiar with VegasInsider, do they accept bets? None of the books that I know of have made lines available yet.
Unless maybe they open it low to generate early cash flow, with intentions of adjusting it later to even the money out. Probably some people betting the game at UL -2 that otherwise wouldn't have bet the game at all.
Unless maybe they open it low to generate early cash flow, with intentions of adjusting it later to even the money out. Probably some people betting the game at UL -2 that otherwise wouldn't have bet the game at all.
Who is the 3rd top 25 team UofL has played? There's no way they've played a tougher schedule than UK.
I don't think there is a third. i thought it might've been wich st, but i checked the previous ap polls and they were never ranked. don't know who else it could've been.
And Baylor wasn't tired either? Give me a freaking break.
I think the biggest rationale behind the Louisville love is Cal's record in road game openers. Couple that with the fact we've won the previous four in a close rivalry contest and winning 5 in a row in the series has only happened once. Seems pretty tempting to think Louisville can pull the upset at home. The only issue is, we can be held to 20 points less than our season avg and likely still win by 5 - 10 points. Their defense is good, but I think our offense and ball handling are more than capable of dealing with it. Their bigs are all offensively challenged, so our post defense shouldn't have to worry about giving up a ton. Their points come primarily from Snider and Mitchell. Our guards are more than capable of defending them. I still think UK by 8 - 10 points. They will have to overcome more than we will to pull out the W. If we just show up and play our style of game it shouldn't be too close.
Vegasinsider.com gives lines from various hotels & then gives a concensus (average) line. Currently says the game is a pick em.
Michigan State beat Wichita St in the Bahamas so their ranking is very flawed. Plus imo we've played two top five teams so any system putting their schedule ahead of ours is flat out wrong. I know the game tomorrow night is at the Yum but I just don't see any reason why UofL would be favored. From watching both teams play I think UofL would have to play at a much higher level than they've shown so far to even make it a close game.
so are we pretending that Vegas isnt known to fix games now? or..................what?
UL at -2 is just begging people to put money on UK.. The smart people here all have that spidey tingle going that something isnt right and danger is coming.
UL at -2 is just begging people to put money on UK.. The smart people here all have that spidey tingle going that something isnt right and danger is coming.
It does seem to good to be true. That being said I might slide some cheese on UK
No you didn't on a real spread. What you may have got was an alternate line. No actual Vegas book, bookie, or offshore opens a standard line at -.5 or +.5. I'm not trying to argue with you because I don't know a lot of things, but I know a lot about betting.
The 5 baddies we played at home killed our SOS.
Michigan State being a dud hurt it to a lesser extent.