The best team hasn't won the tourney or at least projected best team. Tournament extremely random. So the next time our fans want to ***** about going 6-10 years without winning a title...it happens...best team on paper doesn't win it a lot of times.
That is at least 4 straight years....
- Thread starter ulismyman
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Anybody should easily understand this, particularly anybody who actually played sports to any competitive level...
The best you can hope for is to be one of the favorites or one of the ones with a legitimate outside shot... above all else you just need to be playing well and hope the chips fall in your favor
The best you can hope for is to be one of the favorites or one of the ones with a legitimate outside shot... above all else you just need to be playing well and hope the chips fall in your favor
This is true but last year was our year and it slipped through our hands. Way too much talent on that team to lose to Wisconsin. They were a good team but we were a great team. For me that game stings worse than the 92 Duke game.
The NBA is the only major sport in which the champion is almost always the best team. Playing a 7 game series helps determine the real champion. Baseball obviously has a 7 game series too, but the games are so spread out that you only need 3 good starting pitchers in the post season which is much different than the regular season.
Kinda missing the entire point of the thread. Yes, we were easily the best team. The best team only wins it roughly 20% of the time. Therefore our best team still, historically, had a 20% shot. It was a great chance to win, but even the greatest chances in this tournament are very, very low.
NCAAT is a great event, horrible way to crown a champion
Goes both ways, of course. 2011 and 2014 were recent chances to come way off the board and steal a title.
Ahhh darn it. Who said his name 3 times?
While I agree Nova was certainly a top 8 team going in (and more like top 5 I would say) just because they got a 2 seed means nothing. The committee had Duke at 4 and ranked 13th overall. Michigan State was the number 2 team in the country going in and got a 2 seed behind Oregon was ranked 8th at the time I believe. Letting men with biased select seeds is a horrible way to format a tournament.
But not to change the thread into a committee discussion, yes, Villanova was certainly a top 5 team and played like the number 1 team when it mattered.
So....the lesser team has a better chance of winning. i wonder if coach cal is aware of this. he may want to rethink his method.
Wrong! They were the one team that did match up well with us. Had Alex been healthy, you might be right. But even then, one bad shooting game or just a bad floor game and you're toast. Which is what happened.
I... it... um... WHAT? I didn't say that. No one said that. What post were you reading? Are you the guy they have to put "not for internal use" on shampoo bottles for?
What's being said is that even when you have the best team, the field has a much better chance than you. Even the best best best best team has way less than a 50% shot, overall.
I said I agree that the best team usually doesn't win so I don't think I missed the point. My point was that we blew the best opportunity we have had since 2012 to win #9 and because that was a dominate team it hurts worse than losing to Duke when nobody expected us to win that game.
I agree, it was definitely the best chance any one has had in a while, and our chances in actuality probably stood at around 35% to 40%, well less than a coin flip. That's the tournament. It's hard to lament even the best chances when those chances are always going to be low, on the whole.
Villanova was the best team, period,
They beat the two favorites and they destroyed to top 10 teams as well.
Without a doubt, Villanova was the best team this year
They beat the two favorites and they destroyed to top 10 teams as well.
Without a doubt, Villanova was the best team this year
Kenpom had Villanova as the best team... just saying.
That's why my standard is final fours. If you have a coach that can consistently get you to a final four then you have everything. From there it is largely a crap shoot. A bad shooting night, or a bad 5 minute stretch can end your season.
Kenpom almost always has the best team number 1 at the end of the tournament... everyone else lost and weren't building their stats.
Agree. Difficult to win 6 in a row. Very difficult to win the last 2. At least the Wildcats won.
4 of the last 6 seasons the tournament winner wasn't the top rated kenpom team after it was all over.
That's why I said almost always, 4 of the last 6 seasons includes two unlikely Uconn runs and years dominant teams lost.
Kenpom goes back more than 6 years.
Kenpom goes back more than 6 years.
Another thing tho about this is as said above the best team wins 20-30% but most years we don't know who that best team even is.
The teams at the very top are usually so close to one another there is no clear cut favorite most years.
The teams at the very top are usually so close to one another there is no clear cut favorite most years.
Ok go back all the way then, In 15 years of Kenpom the top rated kenpom team has won the tournament 7 times. That's less than half. Nowhere close to "almost always."
This. Just be in the top 10ish or so and you've probably got one of the lottery tickets to a title.
If that shot misses and UNC probably would've won last night in overtime, they would have been your kenpom number 1. So you basically can't be wrong.
You think you are making a point, but are just showing your minimal understanding of statistics. Thanks for looking back on 15 years of final Kenpom statistics though.
You think you are making a point, but are just showing your minimal understanding of statistics. Thanks for looking back on 15 years of final Kenpom statistics though.
I was making a point that the statement you said was wrong. Also Villanova would have still been #1 had they lost last night. If you look at the difference between UNC and Villanova in his ratings its more than one overtime was going to make up for.
If you looked at Kenpom statistics more closely, the crux of my statement would've shown itself to you.
I understand what you're saying but it was hyperbole. Getting on a hot tourney run isn't going to make up completely for the 34 other games a team played that season.
Also, your statement of
Is just not true. Not even close really. That was my point.
Also, your statement of
Is just not true. Not even close really. That was my point.
So people gripe the entire seeding was all messed up and unfair so just maybe Villanova should have been seeded higher all along. It's not like they had an easy route to the championship, but what do I know because I didn't watch after we lost because of the deal with uncheat. If they don't get some major sanctions now I may not Never watch any more of it unless UK is involved.
It was hyperbole yes.
Villanova's rise to number 1 in kenpom can be attributed primarily to their beating previous number 1/2 Kansas, then Oklahoma's futile showing was icing on the cake.
Getting on a hot tourney run is most definitely enough to make up for a lot. That was the crux of my statement and is true.
It was enough to take Villanova from 5 or 6 pre-tournament to number 1. It's enough to get most champs to number 1 or very close if going in they are already top ten, or it will get them to top ten if they aren't.
Villanova's rise to number 1 in kenpom can be attributed primarily to their beating previous number 1/2 Kansas, then Oklahoma's futile showing was icing on the cake.
Getting on a hot tourney run is most definitely enough to make up for a lot. That was the crux of my statement and is true.
It was enough to take Villanova from 5 or 6 pre-tournament to number 1. It's enough to get most champs to number 1 or very close if going in they are already top ten, or it will get them to top ten if they aren't.
Three straight shot clock violations with no timeout playing stall ball is more like it. Plus having the wrong players on the floor.
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