I guess I did a poor job expressing how I feel about this. First of all, there were no expectations of NC's Tubby's last few years or at all with BCG after a few games.
Last year's team was loaded and had real depth at every position. Just look at how they are performing at the next level. I love Cal and would not want anyone else and dread the day he leaves, but they should have won it all last year. Just no excuse for losing to Wisc. I'm still upset over that loss. So disappointing. Doesn't mean I don't have hope for this team. But hope is different than expecting something to happen. Still don't understand how they lost.
Well, Tubby had a number of teams that were best or one of the best in the country (First half of his tenure) which didn't even make a F4, which Cal does way more often than not. And then I'm not sure how his recruiting dropping off in the second half or BCG's drunken escapades of failures using random should've-gone-to-the-MAAC players are somehow more heartening than Cal's excellent recruiting and results that haven't been matched but a couple times in CBB history?
How is there "no excuse for Wisconsin"? Do you realize that they had the highest rated Kenpom Offense in the history of the database, and was one of the top rated teams overall as well? No, they weren't as good as UK, but that 15 UK had already beaten 38 other inferior opponents, and they lost by single digits to one that was just a little inferior (ie. also really great). That's something that happens to every team every single year - it just happened to come at the wrong time.
People who don't understand probability are the ones who seem to have the hardest time with good teams losing and understanding the NCAA tourney. The single elimination format gets rid of a
lot of "ought to". In 7 game series, if there is a team head and shoulders above the others, they will win. In March, that's just not necessarily true.
Understanding that this isn't a random numbers game, just to illustrate the point for some of you guys -
suppose the cats had a 95% chance to win every individual game. That means after 39 games, they have a whopping 13.5% chance of being undefeated. Does that register with some of you guys? If you play something out over a long season, all kinds of crazy stuff can happen in a single game scenario. The most statistically unbelievable thing that happened last year was not the team losing to a great Wisconsin team - there was probably like a 30% chance of that happening. What was unbelievable was winning 38 straight before.