Coronavirus Graphs Showing Promise

[LUV DEM TIGERS]

We keep hearing how it is getting worse and with more testing going on you would think the numbers would be going up with just that alone. I have been looking at these for about 2 months now and I like what I am seeing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[CU91ENGR]

We keep hearing how it is getting worse and with more testing going on you would think the numbers would be going up with just that alone. I have been looking at these for about 2 months now and I like what I am seeing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Unfortunately you're about two weeks from really knowing. Now that everything is opening back up, it could spike back up again. Here's hoping it doesn't, but a lot of very smart people seem to be sitting on edge.

 

[Smiling_Tiger]

Where are you hearing it’s getting worse? Literally every news story I’ve seen everywhere is the opposite. It’s not gone. As things open up we will see spikes again. South Korea had it pretty under control and then 1 infected guy went to a nightclub and infected 85 people. That stuff is going to happen but, in general, things are moving in the right direction

 

[ForzaTigre]

Unfortunately you're about two weeks from really knowing. Now that everything is opening back up, it could spike back up again. Here's hoping it doesn't, but a lot of very smart people seem to be sitting on edge.

Of course it will go up, that’s obvious. If you don’t have a vaccine and open things up cases have to go up. At this point who gives a ****. Just open it all back up. It needs to be done. If those who want to stay inside choose to do so that’s great.

 

[Kelbo]

Unfortunately you're about two weeks from really knowing. Now that everything is opening back up, it could spike back up again. Here's hoping it doesn't, but a lot of very motivated people seem to be sitting on edge.

Fixed it for you.

 

[saber8689]

Also, the majority of what you are seeing with US cases dropping is because of New York.

 

[MojitoJoe]

The R-Values continue to look pretty good.
SC at .79 yesterday.
Only 3 states over 1.0
https://rt.live/?fbclid=IwAR1p5tFX5ody2d1nznuC961M3riMDKo_qmoPlR9LgUu8Weuv_075DY5hTWE

 

[1Clemzunfan]

We keep hearing how it is getting worse and with more testing going on you would think the numbers would be going up with just that alone. I have been looking at these for about 2 months now and I like what I am seeing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The New York Times had an encouraging piece about the improving numbers this morning. Their focus was on the declining percent of tests that are positive. Certainly as you test more, you could get more cases and it can be difficult to determine if that is due to more testing or more people getting sick. So, you have to look at that in conjunction with the % of tests that come back positive relative to the tests being done to get a better picture of progress. And that trend line of positive tests is continuing to show improvement. Here is the graph from the NYT...

That said, while we are in an improving position today, the data lags a couple of weeks because of incubation period, reporting from local health officials to the CDC, etc. And what the most recent data shows is the results of the mitigation efforts the last couple of months with the shutdown. The concern is what will these numbers do over the next couple of months as more things open up and there is less social distancing and mitigation. Can we maintain our progress? How much will summer temps and humidity help in those efforts? You would think they could offset some of the lesser social distancing until temps start to cool again, but how much? Also, will states be able to do sufficient testing to stay ahead and use contact tracing effectively to mitigate spread? What impact will larger and larger gatherings have on the spread? We haven't seen that yet in the reopening efforts and it is a huge risk/concern when it does happen. And the even bigger question is if the numbers start to accelerate again, how effective will governors be in leveling them and how far will they be able to push a public who has gotten more of their lives back and are increasingly not eager to take mitigation actions again.

So, all in all, reason for optimism by my view. But, there is so much ahead of us as we open up and we don't know what is going to happen and how effective we will be able to mitigate things if the numbers start to accelerate again.

 

[Larry_Williams]

Where are you hearing it’s getting worse? Literally every news story I’ve seen everywhere is the opposite. It’s not gone. As things open up we will see spikes again. South Korea had it pretty under control and then 1 infected guy went to a nightclub and infected 85 people. That stuff is going to happen but, in general, things are moving in the right direction

Indoor gatherings are going to be extremely problematic for quite some time, it seems.

 

[1Clemzunfan]

Indoor gatherings are going to be extremely problematic for quite some time, it seems.

Absolutely agree. The larger the gatherings, both indoor and outdoor, the larger the risk. That is where you start having one single person spreading to dozens or possibly hundreds more at a time. Just about all of the large outbreaks in the areas that had significant issues could trace the outbreak to a single gathering or in some cases multiple gatherings of people in larger groups. One person infected many dozens or even hundreds more in one event and it took off from there.

As much as I want to see sporting events live, I just dont see it happening with large groups of fans or in any numbers even remotely close to what we are used to. The data and the risk from bringing tens of thousands together in one place at one time for hours is an ENORMOUS risk and can unravel everything quickly.

 

[tgailes]

Emory has 9 Atlanta facilities that are essentially hospitals, all but 2 have Covid patients. Emory does have outpatient surgical centers that have been closed and are not part of these numbers. Even as Georgia has opened up, Covid patient numbers at Emory have decreased. The total ICU (those in the worst condition) numbers have continued to decrease over the last 4 weeks. Approximately 4 weeks ago the average number in ICU was the mid to upper 80s....we have continued to decrease in ICU patients. Yesterday there was a total of 50 ICU patients in all Emory facilities. Hopefully we continue to see a decrease.

 

[Larry_Williams]

Emory has 9 Atlanta facilities that are essentially hospitals, all but 2 have Covid patients. Emory does have outpatient surgical centers that have been closed and are not part of these numbers. Even as Georgia has opened up, Covid patient numbers at Emory have decreased. The total ICU (those in the worst condition) numbers have continued to decrease over the last 4 weeks. Approximately 4 weeks ago the average number in ICU was the mid to upper 80s....we have continued to decrease in ICU patients. Yesterday there was a total of 50 ICU patients in all Emory facilities. Hopefully we continue to see a decrease.

That is great to hear. Thank you for sharing.

 

[bflow22]

Here is my wife's/my opinion right now.

She is a nurse at Prisma Health Midlands and works on covid patients weekly. This week she has personally seen 6 this week and it's only Wednesday. Having said that.... They shut down their special covid unit about a week ago because they never had more than 40% occupancy. It didn't make sense to keep it in the same orientation so they shut down some of it. Yes, there are still covid only rooms that are fitted for negative pressure. Yes, there are still plenty of covid patients there but there aren't enough to warrant keeping it the way it was. Their leadership said that the peak number of hospitalizations was back between April 1st-8th. The numbers have been slightly declining since then with spikes here and there but an overall trend downward.

We follow strict sanitation but we absolutely live our lives. We had dinner with her parents and then my parents on mothers day weekend on different days while being as cautious as possible. Went to my nieces very small birthday gathering while also being very cautious. Went to dinner last night and actually sat down to eat. It was wonderful. The one thing we do more so than anything else is avoid sketchy people. If they look ill, unsanitary, or are coughing/sneezing we immediately and as politely as possible just go the other direction. If you are smart about it, there is no reason not to live your lives. You know what is crossing the line. Don't be stupid. The virus is real. Don't pretend it isn't.

Things are getting better every week. Just my 0.02.

 

[Tiger Guru]

I cant believe honestly think this is going away. It's coming back and it will be right in time for Nov 3rd, you watch.

 

[jimbob1019]

I cant believe honestly think this is going away. It's coming back and it will be right in time for Nov 3rd, you watch.

Exactly...

It may die down for a couple of months this summer but it will be back with a “vengeance” around October with a major push from the left to shut everything down once again...

We all know it’s coming...

 

[willtiger1234]

Also, rarely mentioned, is that the percentage of positive cases per tests administered is at its lowest percentage ever. The virus is going away, much to the dismay of some.

 

[tgailes]

Emory has 9 Atlanta facilities that are essentially hospitals, all but 2 have Covid patients. Emory does have outpatient surgical centers that have been closed and are not part of these numbers. Even as Georgia has opened up, Covid patient numbers at Emory have decreased. The total ICU (those in the worst condition) numbers have continued to decrease over the last 4 weeks. Approximately 4 weeks ago the average number in ICU was the mid to upper 80s....we have continued to decrease in ICU patients. Yesterday there was a total of 50 ICU patients in all Emory facilities. Hopefully we continue to see a decrease.

Update as of 5/19 Emory now has 43 patients with Covid 19 in ICU.....this is 7 fewer than 1 week ago.....3 weeks into Georgia's opening up!

 

[CU1TruTiger4Life]

Exactly...

It may die down for a couple of months this summer but it will be back with a “vengeance” around October with a major push from the left to shut everything down once again...

We all know it’s coming...

That would be a bad move by the dems imo. If Trump plays it right and wants to keep things open, then the pubs will flock to the voting booths.

 

[tigerwoodnc]

I cant believe honestly think this is going away. It's coming back and it will be right in time for Nov 3rd, you watch.

Why would that happen?

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

I wonder what new unproven virus preventative measures the government forces on us this winter.

If anyone can forward me to any scientific studies showing shelter-in-place works I’d greatly appreciate it. For the life of me I can’t remember ever hearing of this concept.

 

[tigerwoodnc]

Update as of 5/19 Emory now has 43 patients with Covid 19 in ICU.....this is 7 fewer than 1 week ago.....3 weeks into Georgia's opening up!

be
Can't be. Somebody contact Dr Fauci to confirm. I'm sure there has to be a mistake. We all know that opening things up was going to cause another wave.

 

[Kelbo]

Exactly...

It may die down for a couple of months this summer but it will be back with a “vengeance” around October with a major push from the left to shut everything down once again...

We all know it’s coming...

Yep, and they’ll all be in sync.

 

[CUFam98]

Update as of 5/19 Emory now has 43 patients with Covid 19 in ICU.....this is 7 fewer than 1 week ago.....3 weeks into Georgia's opening up!

When Georgia had the soft opening on 4/24 there were almost 2000 people hospitalized and another 2000 in the hospital suspected to have COVID (person under investigation)

May 1 when the shelter in place was lifted it was bout 1500 hospitalized and 1300 PUI.

Earlier this week we were under 1000 hospitalized and 1500 PUI.

Clearly going in the right direction. I really think that 14 days from Memorial Day things will either
1) Loosen up and people will go back to normal(ish) lives
2) We are going to see a big spike and revert back to overreaction mode.

The week of June 15-22 we will have a good idea of the likelihood of fall spectator sports.

 

[CU1TruTiger4Life]

I wonder what new unproven virus preventative measures the government forces on us this winter.

If anyone can forward me to any scientific studies showing shelter-in-place works I’d greatly appreciate it. For the life of me I can’t remember ever hearing of this concept.

Im not against foreign and some domestic travel. But shutting down business and defining those as “essential” and “Non-essential” is just asinine. If it’s a business then it is essential to someone.

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

Im not against foreign and some domestic travel. But shutting down business and defining those as “essential” and “Non-essential” is just asinine. If it’s a business then it is essential to someone.

Agreed, a common sense approach would have been nice. I just find it alarming there are no studies to support our central planners preventative measures.

Luckily our governments are fight summer beach virus spread lol.

 

[The Orange Wave]

I wonder what new unproven virus preventative measures the government forces on us this winter.

If anyone can forward me to any scientific studies showing shelter-in-place works I’d greatly appreciate it. For the life of me I can’t remember ever hearing of this concept.

Would have been interesting to see what the government plan would have been had China not imposed lockdowns. Their lockdown was a whole different level than what the US and Europe did so it was probably more effective. But once they saw what China was doing they felt they had to follow.

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

Would have been interesting to see what the government plan would have been had China not imposed lockdowns. Their lockdown was a whole different level than what the US and Europe did so it was probably more effective. But once they saw what China was doing they felt they had to follow.

But where are all the academic studies showing lockdowns work? It’s not like this was a common assumption prior to the virus. But then again, no economics supports our current fed policy, but we doing it anyway.

 

[ForzaTigre]

Yep, and they’ll all be in sync.

And dems think it’ll make people vote blue by trying to shut it down again? Haha

 

[Kelbo]

And dems think it’ll make people vote blue by trying to shut it down again? Haha

Somehow, some way, Trump comes out of situations on top. He seems to always do so. It’s incredible.

 

[The Orange Wave]

But where are all the academic studies showing lockdowns work? It’s not like this was a common assumption prior to the virus. But then again, no economics supports our current fed policy, but we doing it anyway.

While I support the re-opening now, in hindsight I think the evidence is in the fact that the curve bent, which was the initial intent. No one can prove the counterfactual at this point in that had we done nothing it would have bent on its own. This is why I point to China and that policymakers only had them to go on since it started there. Maybe there was some middle ground where we could have kept travel, schools, and business open but increased sanitation and distancing. But in the moment I don't think there was much time to conduct a study on the best way forward. The UK was heading in that direction and Sweden probably represents that middle ground where they did not shut everything down, but did enact some policies to limit crowds and other things.

As far as the Fed policy, there is economic data that support those policies throughout the last 100 years. The mistakes of Fed/fiscal policy coming out of the depression is where we learned that restrictive policies don't work in an economic downturn. The Fed capped interest rates to control the interest on government debt after World War II. Many of the same policies were used after the Savings and Loan Crisis in the early 90s as well as during the 08/09 recession. You can argue they create a moral hazard and asset price inflation, but from a purely economic perspective I think it is very clear that they limit the downside to growth and create an environment for a recovery. What would you propose the Fed do right now?

 

[PCHOI31]

Nothing to add to the quantitative figures of patients but figured I’d share that I got a text from my gf stating Well Star just furloughed 1000 employees.
Well Star is one of our biggest hospital systems in Georgia. Yikes

 

[spskillz]

That would be a bad move by the dems imo. If Trump plays it right and wants to keep things open, then the pubs will flock to the voting booths.

I mean, if the Dems want to be shutdown, they are less likely to get out and vote. I’m not sure why there are conspiracies that say this is to hurt Trump in the election. The reverse is true.

 

[cuaiken79]

We’ve been flat out duped that this was a Black Plaque type scenario.

 

[Kelbo]

I mean, if the Dems want to be shutdown, they are less likely to get out and vote. I’m not sure why there are conspiracies that say this is to hurt Trump in the election. The reverse is true.

Most conservative leaning voters see through this hoax.

 

[spskillz]

Most conservative leaning voters see through this hoax.

I don’t see a killing virus as a hoax even if you believe it ain’t that serious. Still, if the Dems are the primary proponents of a lockdown, won’t that help Trump when it’s time to vote?

 

[Stripey]

I mean, if the Dems want to be shutdown, they are less likely to get out and vote. I’m not sure why there are conspiracies that say this is to hurt Trump in the election. The reverse is true.

You misunderstand. The dems want everyone to vote remotely, say, over your phone. They'll give away phones to every illegal, indigent, and poor on the doll to allow them to vote for their saviors.

 

[Kelbo]

I don’t see a killing virus as a hoax even if you believe it ain’t that serious. Still, if the Dems are the primary proponents of a lockdown, won’t that help Trump when it’s time to vote?

The virus is a real threat to some, yes... I should clarify. The hoax is the reaction by the doomsday lib crowd. Their motive is crystal clear.

 

[spskillz]

You misunderstand. The dems want everyone to vote remotely, say, over your phone. They'll give away phones to every illegal, indigent, and poor on the doll to allow them to vote for their saviors.

Oh I see. I don’t think it’s a conspiracy but I can now see where the idea comes from.

 

[fatpiggy]

I don’t see a killing virus as a hoax even if you believe it ain’t that serious. Still, if the Dems are the primary proponents of a lockdown, won’t that help Trump when it’s time to vote?

No that will not help Trump. Trump runs on a strong economy, not his personality.

 

[jmh9713]

Indoor gatherings are going to be extremely problematic for quite some time, it seems.

If what you are saying is remotely accurate,

We have one of 2 options

1. Our education system is about to collapse

2. We deal with the infections