1st Election Projection to be released today.

[anon1753124268]

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

The guy that runs the site is as sharp as they come. Extremely knowledgeable and objective. I've followed him for 3 or 4 elections now, and he is spot on time after time. He's a Republican, but he'll call it as he sees it. He'll let you know why a certain event (ie debates) don't really carry much weight and how to read certain polls at certain times. It was remarkable in 2012. All signs pointed to literally the most vulnerable incumbent in history, but he was able to see thru it a give concrete reasons why Romney would not win and by how much.

If you like politics, follow that website!

 

[anon1753124268]

To follow up, the GOP needed fewer debates in their primary. Especially when running against an incumbent. Democrats have a huge electorate advantage naturally. They had more time to focus on Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. While the Republicans were busy bashing Romney, the dems were busy building up Obama in those states and trying to grow the turnout. Truly remarkable on their part, too. The election was essentially won in July.

The polls were way off after the debate in August I believe . The GOP camp did not account for the fact that a) debate give you a one week bump at most and b) all a debate does is pump up each side. Minds are already made up before the debate.

 

[tigerGUY]

Polls have been as accurate as a blind man playing darts for the past 6 years....primarily because there is an agenda and NEVER had a chance to be accurate.

 

[OrangeRegalia]

Nate Silver is far and away the best political predictor. Even predicting One of Obama's wins exactly for electoral votes. He has been off on Trump though, but literally everyone has.

 

[iceheart08]

Polls have been as accurate as a blind man playing darts for the past 6 years....primarily because there is an agenda and NEVER had a chance to be accurate.

well, no. thats not even close to correct.

 

[iceheart08]

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

The guy that runs the site is as sharp as they come. Extremely knowledgeable and objective. I've followed him for 3 or 4 elections now, and he is spot on time after time. He's a Republican, but he'll call it as he sees it. He'll let you know why a certain event (ie debates) don't really carry much weight and how to read certain polls at certain times. It was remarkable in 2012. All signs pointed to literally the most vulnerable incumbent in history, but he was able to see thru it a give concrete reasons why Romney would not win and by how much.

If you like politics, follow that website!

this does not paint a pretty picture for R's in November. his updated (today) projection is an 8.5 point hillary win. Rs lose the senate AND house with those numbers.

"For Trump to overcome his huge electoral vote deficit, which stands at 172 right now, he’ll need to capture nearly all the states currently listed as Weak or Mod DEM Hold without losing any red states. "

 

[BAnksMcFadden]

this does not paint a pretty picture for R's in November. his updated (today) projection is an 8.5 point hillary win. Rs lose the senate AND house with those numbers.

"For Trump to overcome his huge electoral vote deficit, which stands at 172 right now, he’ll need to capture nearly all the states currently listed as Weak or Mod DEM Hold without losing any red states. "

Meh. I do think Clinton wins but I think Scott Elliot, who is great at what he does, has underestimated the groundswell of trump support as have a lot of the other prognosticators like Andrew Tanenbaum, Henry Farrell, etc. I personally think its closer to 3.5

 

[BAnksMcFadden]

Nate Silver is far and away the best political predictor. Even predicting One of Obama's wins exactly for electoral votes. He has been off on Trump though, but literally everyone has.

Nate at 538 does a great job with stats as well. Falls into the same bucket though. Trump isnt similar to any political machine of the past and is causing statistical outliers that can't be ignored in the data sets.

 

[Clems0nTiger]

Polls have been as accurate as a blind man playing darts for the past 6 years....primarily because there is an agenda and NEVER had a chance to be accurate.

Depends on when you examine the poll. I do think they change as people's opinions change. The final polls just prior to election are almost always within 5%, which is pretty good for a blind person throwing darts. It would be interesting to view poll predictions 6 months out for the last few decades. Hillary has varied from 12% to 6% in the past 60 days. It could vary either way from here until November, but I suspect she'll hold at least 5% from here on out.

 

[tigerGUY]

Well...fvcking yes it is smartass. GD lib Kia.

 

[iceheart08]

Meh. I do think Clinton wins but I think Scott Elliot, who is great at what he does, has underestimated the groundswell of trump support as have a lot of the other prognosticators like Andrew Tanenbaum, Henry Farrell, etc. I personally think its closer to 3.5

Pollsters are having all sorts of trouble with bernie and trump supporters, for the reason you mentioned, but I dont think this line of thinking applies to the general. General election voters are much easier to reach and project (historical data backs this up, when comparing primary and general election margins of error) and pollsters will use the data gleaned from the primaries to more accurately predict the general.

I did think 8.5 was too high, my personal belief is that it will be closer to 6, and Ds will win back the senate but just miss on the house.

 

[poates6]

I still can't believe that someone who should be on trial can even sniff winning the presidency.
The USA is no longer, secession is within our lifetime once again.

 

[iceheart08]

Meh. I do think Clinton wins but I think Scott Elliot, who is great at what he does, has underestimated the groundswell of trump support as have a lot of the other prognosticators like Andrew Tanenbaum, Henry Farrell, etc. I personally think its closer to 3.5

its going to get REALLY interesting when Trump tacks hard to the left in the general.

 

[Clems0nTiger]

I still can't believe that someone who should be on trial can even sniff winning the presidency.
The USA is no longer, secession is within our lifetime once again.

It has everything to do with her surname and the Republican running against her.

 

[anon1753124268]

I still can't believe that someone who should be on trial can even sniff winning the presidency.
The USA is no longer, secession is within our lifetime once again.

If there were more people like you, Trump would have a shot. Fortunately for the US, people like you are the vocal minority. No offense. You just aren't level headed enough to form a solid opinion on this subject.

 

[anon1753124268]

its going to get REALLY interesting when Trump tacks hard to the left in the general.

He went left over the weekend with his $15 minimum wage and higher corporate and wealthy tax rates comments. The Republicans just nominated a moderate Democrat. The ones buying the rhetoric are oblivious.

 

[casellers84]

If there were more people like you, Trump would have a shot. Fortunately for the US, people like you are the vocal minority. No offense. You just aren't level headed enough to form a solid opinion on this subject.

For the record, you're agreeing with a dude in this thread that said people should go to jail if you say mean things on Twitter. Since we're on the subject of being level headed and all.

 

[TheBigCat86]

Either way it's a lose lose situation with those candidates in the general...

 

[Gruntmaster]

I bet you were born in South Carolina, weren't you.

Trying to call out ignorance, while showing yours.

 

[1Clemson]

I still can't believe that someone who should be on trial can even sniff winning the presidency.
The USA is no longer, secession is within our lifetime once again.

Which one? One is scheduled for trial, the other awaiting indictment. Poor choices for American voters.

 

[trebormil]

If there were more people like you, Trump would have a shot. Fortunately for the US, people like you are the vocal minority. No offense. You just aren't level headed enough to form a solid opinion on this subject.

This is literally one of the most stupid posts I've ever read. Trump is a loud-mouthed *******, but he's by far better than either of the Democrats. Hillary Clinton is ABSOLUTELY NOT qualified to be President. What qualities would you like in a President:
judgement - she's a total failure; she got an ambassador killed
honesty - too many scandals in her past to count
leadership - please get a grip if you think she's a leader
loyalty - yeah right
Commander-in-Chief - dear God, I feel sorry for you if you think she's qualified for this responsibility; don't know a single person in any of the branches that likes her or respects her (I've served for over 28 years and worked with many from all branches)
How can she hold the highest office in our government when she's not qualified to have a security clearance.
BTW - she's a despicable human being - this is from primary sources (direct/first-hand knowledge)
The list goes on.
Again, Trump may be a loud-mouthed jerk, but he's miles ahead of her. Hell, I've got more presidential qualifications in my left foot than she has in her complete portfolio of skills.

 

[Clems0nTiger]

Trying to call out ignorance, while showing yours.

I wanted to make an equally appalling accusation about somebody based on their statement, using something that was also emotionally charged. Seems like the message came across.

 

[anon1753124268]

This is literally one of the most stupid posts I've ever read. Trump is a loud-mouthed *******, but he's by far better than either of the Democrats. Hillary Clinton is ABSOLUTELY NOT qualified to be President. What qualities would you like in a President:
judgement - she's a total failure; she got an ambassador killed
honesty - too many scandals in her past to count
leadership - please get a grip if you think she's a leader
loyalty - yeah right
Commander-in-Chief - dear God, I feel sorry for you if you think she's qualified for this responsibility; don't know a single person in any of the branches that likes her or respects her (I've served for over 28 years and worked with many from all branches)
The list goes on.
Again, Trump may be a loud-mouthed jerk, but he's miles ahead of her. Hell, I've got more presidential qualifications in my left foot than she has in her complete portfolio of skills.

Thank you for your service. I respect your opinion.

 

[Blythewoodtigers]

He went left over the weekend with his $15 minimum wage and higher corporate and wealthy tax rates comments. The Republicans just nominated a moderate Democrat. The ones buying the rhetoric are oblivious.

Yeah, I thought that was hilarious, since he just got done mentioning the US was in trouble because they couldn't repay their debt. He didn't dare say anything about debt restructuring, just "raise taxes"

 

[Gruntmaster]

I wanted to make an equally appalling accusation about somebody based on their statement, using something that was also emotionally charged. Seems like the message came across.

I guess it did. I wouldn't want to be labeled a bigot just because I was born in South Carolina.
There's hypocrisy everywhere, just hope you didn't mean that.

 

[Clems0nTiger]

I guess it did. I wouldn't want to be labeled a bigot just because I was born in South Carolina.
There's hypocrisy everywhere, just hope you didn't mean that.

Certainly that's not the case, I apologize if my surgically-targeted assault offended you. The dude was simply way out of line.

 

[Gruntmaster]

Certainly that's not the case, I apologize if my surgically-targeted assault offended you. The dude was simply way out of line.

No worries man. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[iceheart08]

For the record, you're agreeing with a dude in this thread that said people should go to jail if you say mean things on Twitter. Since we're on the subject of being level headed and all.

he didnt agree with me, but what does that have to do with the issue being addressed here. Republican pollsters, like the one in the OP, are predicting a sweeping victory for HRC. If this guy is right, Dems will have the house, senate, and presidency, and supreme court.

 

[anon1753124268]

he didnt agree with me, but what does that have to do with the issue being addressed here. Republican pollsters, like the one in the OP, are predicting a sweeping victory for HRC. If this guy is right, Dems will have the house, senate, and presidency, and supreme court.

Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, and gasp....South Carolina are weak GOP States according to polls at the moment. Florida i s a strong dem state. And Trump doesn't have a unified party. This will be the ugliest election in history. Both candidates have so much baggage.

 

[nextoffensivecoord]

He went left over the weekend with his $15 minimum wage and higher corporate and wealthy tax rates comments. The Republicans just nominated a moderate Democrat. The ones buying the rhetoric are oblivious.

Crazy! Minimum wage AND higher taxes on the wealthy....not to mention protectionism? Take away the immigration stuff and Trump is to the LEFT of Hillary!

 

[Buzzards Roost]

I won't vote for Trump. And I won't vote for Clinton. I'm not sure if there will be any contested races on my ballot other than the presidency. If I feel I need to vote I will vote Green Party for president.

 

[JAMCRACKER99]

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

The guy that runs the site is as sharp as they come. Extremely knowledgeable and objective. I've followed him for 3 or 4 elections now, and he is spot on time after time. He's a Republican, but he'll call it as he sees it. He'll let you know why a certain event (ie debates) don't really carry much weight and how to read certain polls at certain times. It was remarkable in 2012. All signs pointed to literally the most vulnerable incumbent in history, but he was able to see thru it a give concrete reasons why Romney would not win and by how much.

If you like politics, follow that website!

Election projection this far out is about as accurate as preseason football polls. Any candidates from the SEC running?

 

[poates6]

I wanted to make an equally appalling accusation about somebody based on their statement, using something that was also emotionally charged. Seems like the message came across.

The irony is all i did was meet him where he wanted to be, and to quote you, seems like the message came across.

Since you want to know, i'm absolutely from the state of South Carolina and proud of it. I'm not sure why my comments have been removed. I asked a question. Made no positive or negative reference to anything and wasn't even close to being negative. Yet you took it that way and apparently the mods took it that way too. Our culture is so scared of the left and its crazies you even come close to what they might consider crossing the line and they censor you.

 

[poates6]

he didnt agree with me, but what does that have to do with the issue being addressed here. Republican pollsters, like the one in the OP, are predicting a sweeping victory for HRC. If this guy is right, Dems will have the house, senate, and presidency, and supreme court.

not only will the Dems win all that, but our country will for sure be over. you can't come back from that much progressivism/socialism to what we were founded to be.

 

[anon1753124268]

Election projection this far out is about as accurate as preseason football polls. Any candidates from the SEC running?

It's actually pretty accurate at this point. You'll see Florida move to weak dem at some point. And Texas to moderate GOP, but it's pretty accurate at this point as the majority of people have already made up their mind. In today's world, it's really about voter turnout anyhow. 30% are Dems and 25% are repubs. The remainder claim they are independent, but when it's time to vote, America is about 52-53% Democratic when over 55% of the eligible population votes. I expect a weak turnout this year. That should actually help Trump somewhat, but make no mistake. This will be a landslide victory for HRC.

 

[AustinTiger77]

I still can't believe that someone who should be on trial can even sniff winning the presidency.
The USA is no longer, secession is within our lifetime once again.

I think we can all agree that Trump is pretty awful and would be a terrible POTUS, but why should he be on trial?

 

[anon1753124268]

not only will the Dems win all that, but our country will for sure be over. you can't come back from that much progressivism/socialism to what we were founded to be.

I feel sorry for those kids in your avatar if you're any sort of role model in their life.

 

[poates6]

I feel sorry for those kids in your avatar if you're any sort of role model in their life.

@Cris_Ard you let these personal attacks stay on the board but remove my questions?

@Tillman28 those are my boys. I'm a damn good father. You would have been lucky to have a daddy like me.

You didn't answer my question though, you have a really good tan?

 

[anon1753124268]

@Cris_Ard you let these personal attacks stay on the board but remove my questions?

@Tillman28 those are my boys. I'm a damn good father. You would have been lucky to have a daddy like me.

You didn't answer my question though, you have a really good tan?

I have a really good father. And mother. They didn't
raise a racist bigot like yourself. And, I'm black. Got a problem with it? Seems like you do.

 

[1Clemson]

I think we can all agree that Trump is pretty awful and would be a terrible POTUS, but why should he be on trial?

1. He is on trial for fraud (sounds familiar) for Trump University bait and switch.
2. Once again the IRS is snooping on him.

He is as immoral and unethical as HRC. Both should be running for cell block representative to the prison council, not president of the US.