Iowa has zero chance at CFP even winning out.

Hurricane88

Senior
Mar 13, 2024
340
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Seems like we have the respect of the national media right now. Let's hope the committee has the same respect on Tuesday.

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yrunvs

Senior
Feb 18, 2012
300
509
93
I have a sinking feeling that even if we win out not enough teams ahead of us lose to get us to #12. It's going to take a few upsets to get us there.
edit: I don't think Kentucky will be in they'll lose again.
 

Hurricane88

Senior
Mar 13, 2024
340
479
63
I have a sinking feeling that even if we win out not enough teams ahead of us lose to get us to #12. It's going to take a few upsets to get us there.
edit: I don't think Kentucky will be in they'll lose again.
It really depends where they rank everyone on Tuesday. IF Iowa is ranked in the top 15 on Tuesday, we would only need 2 or 3 teams to lose ahead of us. I think that is VERY possible.
 

herkhatescy2

All-Conference
Dec 2, 2024
2,248
3,100
113
Oregon or OSU with 3 losses get in ahead of Iowa. Not to mention they’re going to waste a spot with a one or two 3 loss SEC team(s).

All the forecasts showing Oregon and OSU already ranked ahead of Iowa.

You realize it’s based on rankings, right? They don’t select who they want. They rank them. Oregon and OSU (maybe) will be ranked ahead of Iowa this week. As well as 3 loss SEC teams. How are the hawks going to jump them if nothing changes?
OSU is 20th or worse.
 

yrunvs

Senior
Feb 18, 2012
300
509
93
Assuming 8-9 spots are pretty much locked up that leaves only 3-4 openings with probably 3-4 teams ahead of us. We need to win out and we need the 3-4 teams just ahead of us to lose a game because the 8-9 locked spots could lose again and still be in.
 
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yrunvs

Senior
Feb 18, 2012
300
509
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This mindset really bothers me. It's hard to believe that people who think like you actually exist.
Sure I can see how it may bother some folks but I like to go into the off season with a quality win instead of a quality loss. And the CFP voting is so biased to the SEC that it's become a farce IMHO.

edit: How does it work anyway? I'm to lazy to look it up. The #12 team plays the #1 team at their home field? If so, that is not a desirable situation for the #12 team and most likely a blow out.
 
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Anon1751457816

All-Conference
Jul 2, 2025
1,088
1,957
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I'm not sure what you mean by "in a phone booth".

But if you were at the game, then certainly you noticed Iowa only had the tailback rush on consecutive downs 4 times in the game.

3 of those times were for 2 rushes in a row. And 1 time was for 3 rushes in a row.

Hard to say the game was in a phone booth, when Iowa was dropping back to pass that frequently
Not one jet sweep, hardly any misdirection that I can remember. Y
I agree, Iowa missed a few deep opportunities but no creativity near the line of scrimmage.
 

MAKhawks

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2001
1,698
2,644
113
I too can make up percentages using no actual data and slap it on a fancy looking image.

More accurate

 

eyesofhawk

All-Conference
Apr 17, 2011
3,904
3,638
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Not one jet sweep, hardly any misdirection that I can remember. Y
I agree, Iowa missed a few deep opportunities but no creativity near the line of scrimmage.
Diaz actually got a jet sweep.

And there was twice a creative look off the zone read qb keep. One ened up a lateral to DJV. And one a shovel pass to Meyer.

Maybe we just fundamentally disagree. But I don't ever find it accurate to say a game was played in a phone booth, when the ball was paasified as frequently as it was vs Minnesota and especially OSU
 

Jonesy5960

Heisman
Feb 1, 2023
7,292
15,246
113
Oregon or OSU with 3 losses get in ahead of Iowa. Not to mention they’re going to waste a spot with a one or two 3 loss SEC team(s).

All the forecasts showing Oregon and OSU already ranked ahead of Iowa.
OSU is out as of today. Three losses and the committee will even discount that given the loss of Sayin. Oregon has a relative cakewalk the rest of the way, and their wins over USC and OSU are better than any of Iowa's. Still, they have 3 losses and Iowa has 2, so the choice would probably come down to who looks best over the final stretch of games.
 

BigOHawk1

All-Conference
Oct 27, 2001
615
1,135
93
OSU is out as of today. Three losses and the committee will even discount that given the loss of Sayin. Oregon has a relative cakewalk the rest of the way, and their wins over USC and OSU are better than of Iowa's. Still, they have 3 losses and Iowa has 2, so the choice will probably come down to who looks best over the final stretch of games.
This! OSU is toast, not worried there..they dropped like a rock in the normal polls today. The key here will be tomorrow's ranking and how close Oregon and Iowa are...AP and Coaches still have behind Iowa which is a good thing ...If Hawks keep Oregon at bay I don't think they will pass us nor will USC (unless they beat Indiana and/or UCLA..maybe). Oregon's schedule won't allow them to pass us IMO as a road win for Iowa at Illinois is probably better than anything they have left on the board. Translation..this is fun but makes my head hurt, just win Hawks fun to be in the conversation and I think that Hawk D metric is helping boost the resume too. Home win vs. #25 Wisky at the time 40-0 is the best win on season IMO.
 

DuddyB

All-Conference
Jul 14, 2022
2,248
4,017
113
Going to need to win and win impressively. I think the committee is going to be judging by eye test as much as résumé for the final spot or two. West Virginia beating Texas Tech would’ve been helpful.
 
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Jonesy5960

Heisman
Feb 1, 2023
7,292
15,246
113
This! OSU is toast, not worried there..they dropped like a rock in the normal polls today. The key here will be tomorrow's ranking and how close Oregon and Iowa are...AP and Coaches still have behind Iowa which is a good thing ...If Hawks keep Oregon at bay I don't think they will pass us nor will USC (unless they beat Indiana and/or UCLA..maybe). Oregon's schedule won't allow them to pass us IMO as a road win for Iowa at Illinois is probably better than anything they have left on the board. Translation..this is fun but makes my head hurt, just win Hawks fun to be in the conversation and I think that Hawk D metric is helping boost the resume too. Home win vs. #25 Wisky at the time 40-0 is the best win on season IMO.
30-0, but I hear what you're saying. There just isn't much separation between Oregon and Iowa so the relative performance of each team over the next 3 games would weigh heavily on that decision.
 

Wobmam Rulez!

All-American
Aug 4, 2025
5,255
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Sadly, I've mathed it out and agree. Iowa would probably need to climb inside the top ten of the CFP to guarantee a spot. Effing Minnesota loss is going to cost us.

You've got a group of 5 team that earns automatic and then the committee hasn't really penalized teams that lose while playing for their conference championship. 11-1, yes, 10-2, no. 😔
 
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Hawksfor3

Heisman
Dec 5, 2016
9,539
10,503
113
I have a sinking feeling that even if we win out not enough teams ahead of us lose to get us to #12. It's going to take a few upsets to get us there.
edit: I don't think Kentucky will be in they'll lose again.
RG3 said that if Iowa wins out, they should be in based on defense and clock management later in games from what I recall.
I should state that offensively, he praised Hank Brown's ability.
 
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DuddyB

All-Conference
Jul 14, 2022
2,248
4,017
113
Illinois and Purdue both choked away games against Duke (7-2) and Wake Forest (8-1). Add that to the Ohio State/Texas choke job, Wisconsin getting smoked by Notre Dame, Minnesota getting smoked by Mississippi State and Oregon losing against Oklahoma State. Iowa is going to pay for the sins of the rest of the conferences poor nonconference showing.
 
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10001110101

All-Conference
Sep 1, 2003
1,309
1,765
113
30-0, but I hear what you're saying. There just isn't much separation between Oregon and Iowa so the relative performance of each team over the next 3 games would weigh heavily on that decision.
Dammit, I wish I weren't so cynical, and please correct me if I'm wrong...

But if both Iowa and Oregon win out, and there's only room for one of the two in the playoff... the 2 team's performances in their last 3 wins WOULD NOT weigh heavily.

Oregon being a big money big shot, would be what weighs heavily.
 
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Jonesy5960

Heisman
Feb 1, 2023
7,292
15,246
113
Dammit, I wish I weren't so cynical, and please correct me if I'm wrong...

But if both Iowa and Oregon win out, and there's only room for one of the two in the playoff... the 2 team's performance in the their last 3 wins WOULD NOT weigh heavily.

Oregon being a big money big shot, would be what weighs heavily.
I don't necessarily agree. I think style points over the next 3 weeks will play a significant role should both teams win out. Remember that Oregon has a 3rd loss already.
 

DuddyB

All-Conference
Jul 14, 2022
2,248
4,017
113
I don't necessarily agree. I think style points over the next 3 weeks will play a significant role should both teams win out. Remember that Oregon has a 3rd loss already.
That’s where I’m at. If Iowa would come out and dominate these last three games, I think that, in conjunction with Oregon having three losses would give Iowa the edge..
 

10001110101

All-Conference
Sep 1, 2003
1,309
1,765
113
That’s where I’m at. If Iowa would come out and dominate these last three games, I think that, in conjunction with Oregon having three losses would give Iowa the edge..
I could see them putting 3 loss Oregon in, ahead of 2 loss Iowa.

Hope I'm wrong.
 
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