Is there a scenario where Lebby could be fired before the end of the season?...
- Thread starter thekimmer
- Start date
Should/could be? Definitely. Getting throttled by Vandy should do it. Losing to TN Tech in any fashion should do it. Generally looking uncompetitive in all the remaining conference games leading up to the OM game should do it.
Which is the only scenario our admin would actually do it? Probably TN Tech loss. Anything else is going to have some sob story about injuries win them over.
Which is the only scenario our admin would actually do it? Probably TN Tech loss. Anything else is going to have some sob story about injuries win them over.
Co-pilot says:
Midseason firing tends to accomplish one of three things:
A. Immediate turnaround + successful permanent hireB. Little/no immediate turnaround + much better permanent hire
The value isn't rescuing November. It's getting the next four or five years right.
C. Immediate improvement + uncertain/poor permanent hire
The roster responds to the interim, but that doesn't necessarily mean the eventual coaching search succeeds.
If we divide the outcome into "save the season" and "save the program," the evidence shows:
Firing midseason to save the current season:
Weak case. LSU and a few others prove it can happen, but there are many counterexamples.Firing midseason because you've already decided the coach isn't coming back:
Much stronger case. Once the decision is effectively irreversible, waiting may provide little benefit.Firing midseason because you think the interim coach will be better long-term:
Dangerous assumption. LSU/Orgeron and Georgia Tech/Key are success stories, but they shouldn't be treated as the expected outcome.And that's probably the most useful way to frame the decision for an SEC school: Don't fire a coach in October because you think it will rescue November. Fire him in October only if you've already concluded that he won't be the coach next year and beginning the transition immediately provides more value than maintaining continuity for another five or six games.
Concise take on Lebby
I would not fire Lebby now, but 2026 should determine whether he gets 2027.The biggest concern isn't simply his 11-21 overall record. It's whether, after three years, he has built a sustainable SEC roster. State brought in roughly two dozen portal players again for 2026, while experiencing substantial outbound turnover. That raises legitimate questions about depth, player development and roster management in the NIL/portal era.
There are positives: State has improved from 2-10 in 2024 to 5-8 in 2025 and 4-3 currently, and Lebby's staff successfully retained several important players while adding talent through the portal.
My standard: Don't judge him solely on whether State finishes 5-7, 6-6 or 7-5. Evaluate whether the program entering 2027 has:
- SEC-quality depth rather than just capable starters.
- Young recruits developing into starters and backups.
- Successful retention of Kamario Taylor and other core players.
- Fewer roster holes requiring massive portal replacement.
- The ability to consistently beat the middle tier of the SEC.
The key question is no longer "Is State better than it was in 2024?" It clearly is. The question is "Is Lebby building a sustainable SEC program, or is he rebuilding the team from the portal every January?"
Sustainable roster construction matters more than any single win-loss threshold.
If you are going to do it, do it now. Maryland, NC State, and Baylor are already out there contacting prospects agents. How many others will fall while we sit here for 5 more weeks when the outcome is inevitable? Do we really believe Lebby is going to catch lightning in a bottle and reel off consecutive wins in the next 5 weeks?
Under MY Standard:Co-pilot says:
Midseason firing tends to accomplish one of three things:
A. Immediate turnaround + successful permanent hire
B. Little/no immediate turnaround + much better permanent hire
The value isn't rescuing November. It's getting the next four or five years right.
C. Immediate improvement + uncertain/poor permanent hire
The roster responds to the interim, but that doesn't necessarily mean the eventual coaching search succeeds.
If we divide the outcome into "save the season" and "save the program," the evidence shows:
Firing midseason to save the current season:
Firing midseason because you've already decided the coach isn't coming back:
Firing midseason because you think the interim coach will be better long-term:
And that's probably the most useful way to frame the decision for an SEC school: Don't fire a coach in October because you think it will rescue November. Fire him in October only if you've already concluded that he won't be the coach next year and beginning the transition immediately provides more value than maintaining continuity for another five or six games.
Concise take on Lebby
I would not fire Lebby now, but 2026 should determine whether he gets 2027.
The biggest concern isn't simply his 11-21 overall record. It's whether, after three years, he has built a sustainable SEC roster. State brought in roughly two dozen portal players again for 2026, while experiencing substantial outbound turnover. That raises legitimate questions about depth, player development and roster management in the NIL/portal era.
There are positives: State has improved from 2-10 in 2024 to 5-8 in 2025 and 4-3 currently, and Lebby's staff successfully retained several important players while adding talent through the portal.
My standard: Don't judge him solely on whether State finishes 5-7, 6-6 or 7-5. Evaluate whether the program entering 2027 has:
Bottom line: Give Lebby the rest of 2026. If the trajectory remains positive and the 2027 roster looks increasingly mature, retain him. If State collapses and another massive portal rebuild is necessary because internal recruiting, development and retention haven't produced adequate depth, I'd seriously consider making a change.
- SEC-quality depth rather than just capable starters.
- Young recruits developing into starters and backups.
- Successful retention of Kamario Taylor and other core players.
- Fewer roster holes requiring massive portal replacement.
- The ability to consistently beat the middle tier of the SEC.
The key question is no longer "Is State better than it was in 2024?" It clearly is. The question is "Is Lebby building a sustainable SEC program, or is he rebuilding the team from the portal every January?"
Sustainable roster construction matters more than any single win-loss threshold.
SEC quality depth: No, not even SEC quality starters.
Young recruits development: No
K1 retention: Unknown.
Fewer roster holes: our roster has more holes than a screen door.
Beat middle tier: Missouri is Mid tier, and we won, SC lower tier, we won. LSU borderline mid to upper tier this year, skulldrug. Allahbama, skulldrug, Oklahoma, lower tier this year, skulldrug.
I just don't see keeping the guy.
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I'm in favor of firing Lebby yesterday, but I'm skeptical how much an early firing helps with the coaching search. It didn't seem to help Florida and LSU very much last year, as both wound up in a bidding war for Kiffin.
The old rule was coaches would not talk to another school unless the seat was open. These days, with millions at stake and agents doing the work, a good AD can back channel a preliminary coaching search.
Plus, few coaches are going to commit to a new job until they know what else might be available.
I think a mid-season firing can soften the impact a coaching change has on roster management. Instead of uncertainty or shock, the players can decide if they want to wait around and see who the new guy is.
He's not likely to get fired, but crazy things happen.
One scenario would be, turns out he's having an affair with an athletic department superior and using university money to pay for it? Lebby doesn't strike me as that type of guy, but I'd give him props for finally scoring.
One scenario would be, turns out he's having an affair with an athletic department superior and using university money to pay for it? Lebby doesn't strike me as that type of guy, but I'd give him props for finally scoring.
As I said before we have 6 coaches or analyst on this team with previous coaching experience, yes one of them is Arnett and he's proven it's not for him, but the other 5? We have options for interim head coach that don't drive 4 wheelers!
Heck. The reporters can’t get a basic question answered by the guy. At least Sherrill would say # 3 has a knee. We don’t even get that much from the Lebster!
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