Points Maxxing

[Wrestleknownothing]

What are the best case scenarios for the top 20 teams? - you have probably asked yourself.

You ask. I answer.

So You Are Saying There's A Chance | Wrestling.Guru

It is that time of year. The leaves are changing. The morning air is crisp. And the college wrestling season is just around the corner. And you know what th ...

wrestling.guru

 

[chasepollard]

That’s good stuff and proves my point!

It is, very likely to be close at the top and this research’s first slide says what I’ve been thinking…if PSU slips up, just a little bit, OSU wins.

*Caveats*
-PSU hasn’t slipped up in a decade
-OSU has to Wrestle close to perfect
-this chart will look different in the last week of February.

 

[03ee]

How did you treat 141 lbs for OSU’s expected/potential points?

 

[ionel]

- you have probably asked yourself.

You ask. I answer.

Wasn't exactly what I was asking myself ... I was asking "when will Wkn come out with a new set of number to answer all our questions."
Well done and thank you sir!

 

[ionel]

-OSU has to Wrestle close to perfect

We can do that ... check some of chase's 60-0 dual predictions.

 

[oberebo]

I am either getting more pessimistic or realistic as life progresses. We have a very good team which is young and getting better yearly. However, I believe we would have to rely on several boo-boos by Penn State to close the gap this year and that is if we maximize our efforts. I am not content with 2nd place but our opponent may have the best starting lineup in many years and barring a plethora of injuries on their team the odds of us replacing them are slim. However, "Hope springs eternal" and LETS GO POKES !!!

 

[ionel]

However, I believe we would have to rely on several boo-boos by Penn State to close the gap this year and that is if we maximize our efforts.

Pretty sure as we speak Wkn is working up a chart showing the probabilities of the Boo Bo Bunny attacking the Nit Lions in March.

 

[Corby2]

That’s good stuff and proves my point!

It is, very likely to be close at the top and this research’s first slide says what I’ve been thinking…if PSU slips up, just a little bit, OSU wins.

*Caveats*
-PSU hasn’t slipped up in a decade
-OSU has to Wrestle close to perfect
-this chart will look different in the last week of February.

You were gonna be close last year as well according to you

 

[Howie_Fartz]

You were gonna be close last year as well according to you

Last year we had the boo boo getting about 3 points total from165-174 while psu wrestled nearly perfect. Svn / Swiderski match couldve gone either way and there'd of been 5 Cowboys in the finals.

Again its been stated that we'd have to wrestle perfect and then some. I expect this years team to score a lot more bonus than last year.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

How did you treat 141 lbs for OSU’s expected/potential points?

That is hinted at in the second table:



That hole in 141 is because Intermat does not have anyone from OSU ranked at 141. It's the "no freshmen til they wrestle" thing. So OSU got a goose egg at 141.

It is not even clear what PSU's lineup will be yet. Intermat started with Davis at 141, now they have Desmond. Maybe its Ono or Blaze. Maybe Haines gets a reprieve from the courts.

Still a lot of wood to chop and a fair amount of water to carry.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Pretty sure as we speak Wkn is working up a chart showing the probabilities of the Boo Bo Bunny attacking the Nit Lions in March.

Sorry this took so long, but I had to spend a lot of time working out the formula and checking the results.

 

[ionel]

Sorry this took so long, but I had to spend a lot of time working out the formula and checking the results.

View attachment 1503009

Was wanting a pie chart but this will do.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Was wanting a pie chart but this will do.

Pie charts are an abomination.

Except this one.

 

[chasepollard]

You were gonna be close last year as well according to you

I was right last year too! If you actually look at it, it was way too close for Cael's comfort.

It was happenstance in several scenarios, razor-thin execution in one and downright missing the boat on two guys.

*Troy getting LL and VRob (x2.) Troy had to Wrestle the last two champs.
*I didn't like several draws, but whatever, thats the brakes.

*Casey toppling Van Ness would've been huge!
*Missed bonus points multiple times by 1 point (I can't find my notes on exactly how many.)
*Dee getting underhooked to his back was shocking.

*Team point deductions
*Abysmal points at 65 and 74.

Would it have been enough to steal it? Casey beating Van Ness would've brought it to 160's to high 140's. Dee and Facundo combining for 3 team points is all that really needs to be said. Example: Dee gets 13 for 5th and Facundo get 6 for 8th...it is right there within a few points.

Simple facts: they were perfect and we weren't.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I was right last year too! If you actually look at it, it was way too close for Cael's comfort.

It was happenstance in several scenarios, razor-thin execution in one and downright missing the boat on two guys.

*Troy getting LL and VRob (x2.) Troy had to Wrestle the last two champs.
*I didn't like several draws, but whatever, thats the brakes.

*Casey toppling Van Ness would've been huge!
*Missed bonus points multiple times by 1 point (I can't find my notes on exactly how many.)
*Dee getting underhooked to his back was shocking.

*Team point deductions
*Abysmal points at 65 and 74.

Would it have been enough to steal it? Casey beating Van Ness would've brought it to 160's to high 140's. Dee and Facundo combining for 3 team points is all that really needs to be said. Example: Dee gets 13 for 5th and Facundo get 6 for 8th...it is right there within a few points.

Simple facts: they were perfect and we weren't.

OSU only missed bonus points by 1 once (Lockett in the first round). That put them below the field average for 7 point wins (2.6% vs 4.3%). All of their majors were by margins between 8 and 11.

The real issue is that OSU led the field in 3 point wins (23.1% vs 17.1%), trailed the field in majors (10.3% vs 17.3%) and trailed the field in techs (7.7% vs 8.5%). On the bright side OSU had 15.4% pins vs 9.2% for the field.

On top of all that PSU had an absurd 41.5% tech rate.

 

[chasepollard]

OSU only missed bonus points by 1 once (Lockett in the first round). That put them below the field average for 7 point wins (2.6% vs 4.3%). All of their majors were by margins between 8 and 11.

The real issue is that OSU led the field in 3 point wins (23.1% vs 17.1%), trailed the field in majors (10.3% vs 17.3%) and trailed the field in techs (7.7% vs 8.5%). On the bright side OSU had 15.4% pins vs 9.2% for the field.

On top of all that PSU had an absurd 41.5% tech rate.

There were more scenarios that had the outcome of a major with a TD and we were in or didn't get in. Basically, we were right there for bonus quite a bit.

And yeah, I knew about the close margin number.

And double yeah, those SOBs were putting up the points!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

There were more scenarios that had the outcome of a major with a TD and we were in or didn't get in. Basically, we were right there for bonus quite a bit.

And yeah, I knew about the close margin number.

And double yeah, those SOBs were putting up the points!

If you bump it to 5, 6, 7 points (ie 1 TD with no escape) OSU was little different than the field (17.9% vs 17.3%)

 

[ionel]

On top of all that PSU had an absurd 41.5% tech rate.

Absurdity should be penalized!

 

[chasepollard]

If you bump it to 5, 6, 7 points (ie 1 TD with no escape) OSU was little different than the field (17.9% vs 17.3%)

That isn't what I was referring to on the bonus opps we didn't take advantage of. Troy had a chance against Seymour for a major. Serg had an opp against his 1st round guy. Casey had one, don't remember where and didn't write it down. Landon didn't get one bonus point. Dee should've in his 1st round. Facundo should've in his 1st round. Merrill should've had one in his quarters. All majors and all I had written down.

That is 7 wins that we were close to a TD or didn't capitalize on getting a TD to get the major.

I know, small stuff and it doesn't keep pace with PSU tech'ing 50% of their matches.