News today

[dtrain79]

I remember people thinking there wasn’t a lot of Medicare and Medicaid fraud. As I’ve said before, I don’t want to hear about raising taxes until a significant amount of fraud is cleaned up.

It’s incredible how easy it is to defraud the govt in Dem cities. And then when caught, the Dem leaders aren’t upset with the fraudsters, they get upset with those uncovering the fraud.

No one took this position. Fraud is simply not a meaningful portion of the overall budget.

There is ample health care fraud (there is not ample voter fraud on the other hand), but you add up all fraud in the federal budget, it’s not even close to a meaningful part of the reason we are in massive debt.

There were apparently a ton of Rs who came to Washington after 2010 thinking exactly what you are implying. Paul Ryan had a lot of fun explaining to them how the federal budget was a disaster, and that’s when it was way more sane on the tax/spend front.

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[dtrain79]

I remember people thinking voter fraud didn’t occur enough to make a difference.

This is fantasy, Dumbcoach. Just made up. It takes a real idiot to take it at face value.

 

[stoneaxe27]

I remember people thinking voter fraud didn’t occur enough to make a difference.

All RW media BS. All legit studies, by Trump I, conservative think tanks, the states, etc. found very few illegal votes, not even 1 per million votes.

 

[stoneaxe27]

Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth​

The president has continued to claim voter fraud was a problem in the 2016 election. A look at the facts makes clear fraud is rare, and does not happen on a scale even close to necessary to “rig” an election.
Published January 31, 2017
Voting & Elections

• Sensationalist claims have circulated this election season about the extent of voter fraud, with some politicians going so far as to tell voters to fear that this November’s election will be “rigged.” Because electoral integrity is one of the elements necessary to making America the greatest democracy in the world, claims like this garner media attention, and frighten and concern voters. But putting rhetoric aside to look at the facts makes clear that fraud by voters at the polls is vanishingly rare, and does not happen on a scale even close to that necessary to “rig” an election.
  Studies Agree: Impersonation Fraud by Voters Very Rarely Happens
  • The Brennan Center’s seminal report on this issue, The Truth About Voter Fraud, found that most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices. The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. Given this tiny incident rate for voter impersonation fraud, it is more likely, the report noted, that an American “will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls.”
  • A study published by a Columbia University political scientist tracked incidence rates for voter fraud for two years, and found that the rare fraud that was reported generally could be traced to “false claims by the loser of a close race, mischief and administrative or voter error.”
  • A 2017 analysis published in The Washington Post concluded that there is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that Massachusetts residents were bused into New Hampshire to vote.
  • A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast. Even this tiny number is likely inflated, as the study’s author counted not just prosecutions or convictions, but any and all credible claims.
  • Two studies done at Arizona State University, one in 2012 and another in 2016, found similarly negligible rates of impersonation fraud. The project found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000–2012. The follow-up study, which looked for fraud specifically in states where politicians have argued that fraud is a pernicious problem, found zero successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012–2016.
  • A review of the 2016 election found four documented cases of voter fraud.
  • Research into the 2016 election found no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
  • A 2016 working paper concluded that the upper limit on double voting in the 2012 election was 0.02%. The paper noted that the incident rate was likely much lower, given audits conducted by the researchers showed that “many, if not all, of these apparent double votes could be a result of measurement error.”
  • A 2014 paper concluded that “the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.”
  • A 2014 nationwide study found “no evidence of widespread impersonation fraud” in the 2012 election.
  • A 2014 study that examined impersonation fraud both at the polls and by mail ballot found zero instances in the jurisdictions studied.
  • A 2014 study by the non-partisan Government Accountability Office, which reflected a literature review of the existing research on voter fraud, noted that the studies consistently found “few instances of in-person voter fraud.”
  • While writing a 2012 book, a researcher went back 30 years to try to find an example of voter impersonation fraud determining the outcome of an election, but was unable to find even one.
  • A 2012 study exhaustively pulled records from every state for all alleged election fraud, and found the overall fraud rate to be “infinitesimal” and impersonation fraud by voters at the polls to be the rarest fraud of all: only 10 cases alleged in 12 years. The same study found only 56 alleged cases of non-citizen voting, in 12 years.
  • A 2012 assessment of Georgia’s 2006 election found “no evidence that election fraud was committed under the auspices of deceased registrants.”
  • A 2011 study by the Republican National Lawyers Association found that, between 2000 and 2010, 21 states had 1 or 0 convictions for voter fraud or other kinds of voting irregularities.
  • A 2010 book cataloguing reported incidents of voter fraud concluded that nearly all allegations turned out to be clerical errors or mistakes, not fraud.
  • A 2009 analysis examined 12 states and found that fraud by voters was “very rare,” and also concluded that many of the cases that garnered media attention were ultimately unsubstantiated upon further review.
  • Additional research on noncitizen voting can be found here: http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/analysis-noncitizen-voting-vanishingly-rare.
  • Additional resources can be found here: https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/analysis-and-reports.
  
  

 

[stoneaxe27]

Courts Agree: Fraud by Voters at the Polls is Nearly Non-Existent

• The Fifth Circuit, in an opinion finding that Texas’s strict photo ID law is racially discriminatory, noted that there were “only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade” before Texas passed its law.
• In its opinion striking down North Carolina’s omnibus restrictive election law —which included a voter ID requirement — as purposefully racially discriminatory, the Fourth Circuit noted that the state “failed to identify even a single individual who has ever been charged with committing in-person voter fraud in North Carolina.”
• A federal trial court in Wisconsin reviewing that state’s strict photo ID law found “that impersonation fraud — the type of fraud that voter ID is designed to prevent — is extremely rare” and “a truly isolated phenomenon that has not posed a significant threat to the integrity of Wisconsin’s elections.”
• Even the Supreme Court, in its opinion in Crawford upholding Indiana’s voter ID law, noted that the record in the case “contains no evidence of any [in-person voter impersonation] fraud actually occurring in Indiana at any time in its history.” Two of the jurists who weighed in on that case at the time — Republican-appointed former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens and conservative appellate court Judge Richard Posner — have since announced they regret their votes in favor of the law, with Judge Posner noting that strict photo ID laws are “now widely regarded as a means of voter suppression rather than of fraud prevention.”
• The verdict is in from every corner that voter fraud is sufficiently rare that it simply could not and does not happen at the rate even approaching that which would be required to “rig” an election. Electoral integrity is key to our democracy, and politicians who genuinely care about protecting our elections should focus not on phantom fraud concerns, but on those abuses that actually threaten election security.
  

 

[stoneaxe27]

 

[rillaman]

No one took this position. Fraud is simply not a meaningful portion of the overall budget.

Yes, they did. You weren't one of them. But a couple said medicaid and medicare fraud was incredibly rare. They conveniently ignored the fact that most in government have turned a blind eye to it. It's rampant, and there finally seems to be an interest in cleaning it up.

There is ample health care fraud (there is not ample voter fraud on the other hand), but you add up all fraud in the federal budget, it’s not even close to a meaningful part of the reason we are in massive debt.

It doesn't help. The #s keep getting bigger every year. We have to start making dents. If you want to say we should do the same with the defense budget, funding foreign countries, etc. I'd agree with you. It seems like we (as a country) are finally starting to look at unnecessary spending. In the healthcare space, a lot of that unnecessary spending goes through govt programs.

There were apparently a ton of Rs who came to Washington after 2010 thinking exactly what you are implying. Paul Ryan had a lot of fun explaining to them how the federal budget was a disaster, and that’s when it was way more sane on the tax/spend front.

Yes, those people are likely threatened until they leave the cause. I've wondered how the govt really feels about eliminating fraud. In the past, I don't think they have wanted to. Allowing fraud props up the economy (employs a lot of people) and keeps the $ spigot flowing.

Moving to socialized healthcare is their dream. No private companies investigating, just the gov't monitoring itself. They say it would be free, the truth is it would be crushingly expensive.

 

[tjfleck6]

All RW media BS. All legit studies, by Trump I, conservative think tanks, the states, etc. found very few illegal votes, not even 1 per million votes.

You and your roommate Jeff say there is very little fraud. I’m sure this lady is small time compared to the Dems and Republicans who stole billions from the Ukraine slush fund.

 

[Uncoach]

Yes, they did. You weren't one of them. But a couple said medicaid and medicare fraud was incredibly rare. They conveniently ignored the fact that most in government have turned a blind eye to it. It's rampant, and there finally seems to be an interest in cleaning it up.


It doesn't help. The #s keep getting bigger every year. We have to start making dents. If you want to say we should do the same with the defense budget, funding foreign countries, etc. I'd agree with you. It seems like we (as a country) are finally starting to look at unnecessary spending. In the healthcare space, a lot of that unnecessary spending goes through govt programs.


Yes, those people are likely threatened until they leave the cause. I've wondered how the govt really feels about eliminating fraud. In the past, I don't think they have wanted to. Allowing fraud props up the economy (employs a lot of people) and keeps the $ spigot flowing.

Moving to socialized healthcare is their dream. No private companies investigating, just the gov't monitoring itself. They say it would be free, the truth is it would be crushingly expensive.

Absolutely. Not only is the British system bankrupt, the Canadian system is now gleefully offering suicide meds to young kids, not just euthanasia for old curmudgeons. Eventually socialism runs out of other peoples' money.

 

[Uncoach]

Watch your accounts close!

 

[rillaman]

This stuff has gone unchecked for years.

 

[stoneaxe27]

Moving to socialized healthcare is their dream. No private companies investigating, just the gov't monitoring itself. They say it would be free, the truth is it would be crushingly expensive.

Actually, you have it backwards. The private portion of the US healthcare system is the most expensive on the planet, and we have some of the worst results statistically. Check out infant mortality rate comparisons. The great majority can't afford treatment at Northwestern or Univ. of Chicago. They can't afford or do not have easy access to any medical care. The "socialized" portion of our system, Medicare and Medicaid, have administrative costs of 5% as opposed to the private insurance which has administrative costs in excess of 20%.

 

[dtrain79]

Yes, they did. You weren't one of them. But a couple said medicaid and medicare fraud was incredibly rare. They conveniently ignored the fact that most in government have turned a blind eye to it. It's rampant, and there finally seems to be an interest in cleaning it up.


It doesn't help. The #s keep getting bigger every year. We have to start making dents. If you want to say we should do the same with the defense budget, funding foreign countries, etc. I'd agree with you. It seems like we (as a country) are finally starting to look at unnecessary spending. In the healthcare space, a lot of that unnecessary spending goes through govt programs.


Yes, those people are likely threatened until they leave the cause. I've wondered how the govt really feels about eliminating fraud. In the past, I don't think they have wanted to. Allowing fraud props up the economy (employs a lot of people) and keeps the $ spigot flowing.

Moving to socialized healthcare is their dream. No private companies investigating, just the gov't monitoring itself. They say it would be free, the truth is it would be crushingly expensive.

Socialized medicine is a terrible idea, we unsurprisingly agree.

I'm all for tighter controls on the government programs that have excessive fraud. This certainly is achievable, especially if Congress is doing its job (part of the problem, as passing legislation is so much more difficult than it once was).

Ultimately, the debt bomb is going to have to be tackled with meaningful reductions in entitlement spending (the spending least susceptible to fraud, as much of it outside the HC space is simply wealth transfer), some reduction in other spending, and somewhat higher taxes across the board. That's just reality, I hope at some point we get there.

 

[Uncoach]

@tjfleck6

 

[Uncoach]

Interesting read.

 

[rillaman]

Actually, you have it backwards. The private portion of the US healthcare system is the most expensive on the planet, and we have some of the worst results statistically. Check out infant mortality rate comparisons. The great majority can't afford treatment at Northwestern or Univ. of Chicago. They can't afford or do not have easy access to any medical care. The "socialized" portion of our system, Medicare and Medicaid, have administrative costs of 5% as opposed to the private insurance which has administrative costs in excess of 20%.

If you own a business, I can help you get that cost down to 5% through private insurance carriers. No business owner that provides medical insurance to their employees should be in a fully insured medical plan. Those have very high admin costs.

You don't want the "socialized" healthcare our govt provides. It's bad, real bad. I have clients whose employees don't sign up for health insurance, and then go get treated at Denver Health. I hear a lot of horrible stories about the treatment people receive.

I would vote to increase funding for Medicaid, to help people that actually need it. But not until the fraud is cleaned up, and we stop states from letting this $ flow into state programs, which are then offered to non-citizens. In order to improve our socialized medical care, it has to be offered to USA citizens only. Otherwise we will continue being a piggy bank for the world and those admin costs will skyrocket with no private companies to compete with.

 

[Uncoach]

Welp...this revealing of Lindsay Graham being gay and having a few male escorts is weird. He's six feet under. Why now? The only explanation I can come up with is that it is supposed to hurt his sister's chances of winning his seat.

 

[Uncoach]

If you own a business, I can help you get that cost down to 5% through private insurance carriers. No business owner that provides medical insurance to their employees should be in a fully insured medical plan. Those have very high admin costs.

You don't want the "socialized" healthcare our govt provides. It's bad, real bad. I have clients whose employees don't sign up for health insurance, and then go get treated at Denver Health. I hear a lot of horrible stories about the treatment people receive.

I would vote to increase funding for Medicaid, to help people that actually need it. But not until the fraud is cleaned up, and we stop states from letting this $ flow into state programs, which are then offered to non-citizens. In order to improve our socialized medical care, it has to be offered to USA citizens only. Otherwise we will continue being a piggy bank for the world and those admin costs will skyrocket with no private companies to compete with.

You'd want to get rid of Anchor babies, as well. That would eliminate some of the illegal migration. Unfortunately SCOTUS screwed the pooch on that one.

 

[ILisBest]

If you own a business, I can help you get that cost down to 5% through private insurance carriers. No business owner that provides medical insurance to their employees should be in a fully insured medical plan. Those have very high admin costs.

You don't want the "socialized" healthcare our govt provides. It's bad, real bad. I have clients whose employees don't sign up for health insurance, and then go get treated at Denver Health. I hear a lot of horrible stories about the treatment people receive.

I would vote to increase funding for Medicaid, to help people that actually need it. But not until the fraud is cleaned up, and we stop states from letting this $ flow into state programs, which are then offered to non-citizens. In order to improve our socialized medical care, it has to be offered to USA citizens only. Otherwise we will continue being a piggy bank for the world and those admin costs will skyrocket with no private companies to compete with.

It is just another day that ends in Y when the Stonedax is proven wrong.

 

[ILisBest]

Yes, they did. You weren't one of them. But a couple said medicaid and medicare fraud was incredibly rare. They conveniently ignored the fact that most in government have turned a blind eye to it. It's rampant, and there finally seems to be an interest in cleaning it up.


It doesn't help. The #s keep getting bigger every year. We have to start making dents. If you want to say we should do the same with the defense budget, funding foreign countries, etc. I'd agree with you. It seems like we (as a country) are finally starting to look at unnecessary spending. In the healthcare space, a lot of that unnecessary spending goes through govt programs.


Yes, those people are likely threatened until they leave the cause. I've wondered how the govt really feels about eliminating fraud. In the past, I don't think they have wanted to. Allowing fraud props up the economy (employs a lot of people) and keeps the $ spigot flowing.

Moving to socialized healthcare is their dream. No private companies investigating, just the gov't monitoring itself. They say it would be free, the truth is it would be crushingly expensive.

Good post, Rill. The media does a nice job of ignoring the good this administration is doing and if the word leaks out they quickly try to write more articles to counter and sway AI.

The dive the Trump Administration is doing into fraud should be universally praised. But the gullible are alive and well.

 

[ILisBest]

Talking points by Bill O:

So most Americans know that the polling industry is not reliable. I think that's an accurate statement. However, the news media uses it every hour on the hour, particularly when the polling comes down on the side of the anti-Trump movement. And that's the way it is. Now, at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, there is a center for politics. It's run by a guy named Larry Sabato, and I've known him for decades. And he has a crystal ball that he puts out, it's free. And Larry is a left-leaning guy, there's no question about that. And his latest prediction that came out yesterday says that the Democrats are pretty easily gonna take the House. All right, 235 seats are necessary to control it, and Larry thinks it's gonna be a pretty easy bar to go under. In the Senate, it's closer. He's got the democrats ahead Sabato does, but not by a lot. So as we always do, we looked back on Larry Sabato's polling in the presidential race of 2024, and Larry was wrong. Okay, he was close on the Senate, but he was wrong about Trump winning. Not to say that you should throw them out the window, but these guys, they inject politics into their polling. And I'd never use Sabato as a yardstick ever, wouldn't do it. There's another guy, Nate Silver. He predicts the Democrats have a 94% chance of reclaiming the House, 75% retake the Senate. Those are pretty high numbers for Nate. Well, Nate was wrong about Trump last time around. In fact, the last time that Nate was right on a pretty significant level was 2012. So, you know. I'll check it. Nobody else is going to check this stuff. All you're going to see is the headline. And they may be right. They may be right. I'm not saying that Sabato and Nate Silver are wrong. I'm saying it's questionable. And I'm seeing the media never puts it into perspective, ever.

Now this is an interesting story. There's an outfit called Wedgewood Polls. I never heard of Wedgewood Polls, never. But it's a national agency that has been cited by the New York Times, MS, Newsweek, on and on and on and. Well, they came out and said, we're phony. We make it all up. So why, why would they bother? And the quote is, "We want to test a simple hypothesis, how easy it is for an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and expose how little scrutinization exists in the media and public commentary." Okay, that's an interesting experiment, and it just reinforces what I've told you for months about these polling agencies, so people get upset, they get depressed, don't. Keep it here. We will back up everything we say, okay, and tell you who's saying it and what are the odds.



So right now, less than two weeks before the midterm vote, if you were a betting person, you would say the Democrats will carry the house. And that's because of Trump fatigue and less money in your wallet. Doesn't have anything else to do with that. That is the driver. But the Senate, I think GOP, Grand Old Party, the Republicans are going to keep it. And I think there'll be some pretty good upsets if you are GOP adherent. Okay, so Minnesota. Looks like they may be rising up after all the fraud. Maine I can't imagine. I can't imagine electing this guy, Troy Jackson in Maine. He doesn't know anything. All right, and in Texas, Talarico, it'll be closer than it should be. We've gone over it and over and over it, but I think Texas is a traditional state and will elect a Republican to the Senate. Could be wrong, could be wrong. But if I am wrong, I'll explain why. And we're not, I'm not relying on any polling. This is my observation now that I just gave you. And that's the Memo.

 

[tjfleck6]

Stone WILL have a new R governor. Jeff too! Great news for them despite the fact their brains will remain mush.

 

[dtrain79]

Welp...this revealing of Lindsay Graham being gay and having a few male escorts is weird. He's six feet under. Why now? The only explanation I can come up with is that it is supposed to hurt his sister's chances of winning his seat.

First, I think it's pretty well known Lindsey was gay. And who cares? Doesn't implicate the merits of any position he held.

Also, I have zero idea how any Dem would think it helps them. His sister is likely to win (even if closer than it should be), and it's no different than Vivek's dumb ad campaign that is probably the final nail in his political coffin.

 

[stoneaxe27]

It is just another day that ends in Y when the Stonedax is proven wrong.

Except there was no post that proved me wrong, get an original thought before you post..

 

[dtrain79]

Stone WILL have a new R governor. Jeff too! Great news for them despite the fact their brains will remain mush.

I don't know who told Seth that Florida had a toss up race for Governor, because it never has. Interestingly, the two places the GOP should probably be most optimistic about not falling apart are: (a) Florida and (b) New York. Florida just has tons more Rs than it once did. And both places have meaningful numbers of Jewish voters veering right to offset some Dem strength in other groups.

It would be pretty wild if the GOP held some toss up House seats in greater NYC at the exact same time as it lost a place like Little Rock.

Keep feeding 'em the red meat, Seth. Stick to Florida, cuz it ain't going great in Texas (Dems out early in droves)!!!!

 

[tjfleck6]

It appears Bronze was fooled by fake polls. Hopium is a hell of drug that Icky is peddling. Icky didn’t realize why he liked Lindsey Graham until today.

 

[stoneaxe27]

It appears Bronze was fooled by fake polls. Hopium is a hell of drug that Icky is peddling. Icky didn’t realize why he liked Lindsey Graham until today.

If it is fake, does that mean Abbot is not leading and is not going to win?

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

Welp...this revealing of Lindsay Graham being gay and having a few male escorts is weird. He's six feet under. Why now? The only explanation I can come up with is that it is supposed to hurt his sister's chances of winning his seat.

Or it’s because he was gay and had male escorts and he’s no longer useful because he’s dead…

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

It appears Bronze was fooled by fake polls. Hopium is a hell of drug that Icky is peddling. Icky didn’t realize why he liked Lindsey Graham until today.

The irony in this one is thick. Lots of gay and trans talk from our closet gay LARPer today.

 

[dtrain79]

It appears Bronze was fooled by fake polls. Hopium is a hell of drug that Icky is peddling. Icky didn’t realize why he liked Lindsey Graham until today.

I've never seen this poll, cited it, or anything else. I realize you are a twit, but you need to do better.

The most I've ever seen Talarico ahead in a poll is by 6% in fact. My prediction of the race is Talarico by 2% btw (and it's been my view for about 2 months).

I have heard of SoCal strategies, and actually remember thinking they had a lot of results that seemed unfavorable to Republicans. Btw, it's a Dem outfit (at least data guys that are more inclined to Dems) outing these fake pollsters.

 

[dtrain79]

Separately, I get my polling information from Real Clear Politics, which is a solidly right of center website. It's run by Tom Bevan, who as far as I can tell loves Trump. The average has Talarico up 1.5%, Nate Silver's average has Talarico up 2.5% ish.

2026 Texas Senate - Paxton vs. Talarico | RealClearPolling

 

[tjfleck6]

If it is fake, does that mean Abbot is not leading and is going to win?

Abbot will win by double digits. Your wet dream is just that.

To gain credibility for their insanely corrupt Paxton poll they added a somewhat legitimate number for Abbot.

It worked on you!

But you are correct on one thing - both of those "polls" are completely made up.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

Abbot will win by double digits. Your wet dream is just that.

To gain credibility for their insanely corrupt Paxton poll they added a somewhat legitimate number for Abbot.

It worked on you!

But you are correct on one thing - both of those "polls" are completely made up.

Closet gay TJ used to only cite Rasmussen/Mark Mitchell. Everything else was fake and made up.

Now Mitchell reports the truth about Trump/MAGA and he’s moved onto a different grifter that suits his beliefs. Funny how that happens.

 

[Uncoach]

Stone WILL have a new R governor. Jeff too! Great news for them despite the fact their brains will remain mush.

How are the leftist nuts in the media going to explain how all the MAGA White Nationalist racists voted proudly for a Black governor?

 

[Uncoach]

 

[dtrain79]

Abbot will win by double digits. Your wet dream is just that.

To gain credibility for their insanely corrupt Paxton poll they added a somewhat legitimate number for Abbot.

It worked on you!

But you are correct on one thing - both of those "polls" are completely made up.

He will not. He beat Beto by 10-11% in much more favorable conditions. I like Abbott, I'm voting for him.

But realistically, I suspect that's a 3-6% race.

Republicans are reliant on similar coalitions in Texas and Arizona. They've done a very poor job of maintaining that coalition the last two years, both are likely rough states for Rs this cycle.

 

[dtrain79]

This is extremely false in a state by state comparison, which are quite available.

Then again, what isn't Clay Travis full of crap about.