First of all - I'm thrilled beyond measure with our new coach. Stein is THE MAN and I believe in him. I just have one little quibble with his decision making that I wish he would change.
I get that analytics says the percentages favor going for it on 4th and short in certain situations, about 54% success rate vs. 86% for FGs. But there is an argument to be made about the asymmetrical risk of loss. See Dan Campbell and the Lions in 2023. He adopted a "this is who we are" mentality and his players bought in. But when the freaking SUPER BOWL is on the line, you have to at least consider those decisions. Campbell opted out of 2 makeable FGs and lost by 3. That's a potential career ending decision and the Lions may never sniff the Super Bowl again. I watched the Cowboys lose an important division game where they would have won if they just kicked FGs, just a year or so ago.
(The opposite end of the spectrum was Tom Landry of the Cowboys. He was always taking the conservative approach and rarely took chances. He was a legend but that was the single knock on him. Even Staubach complained about it in his book.)
Stein seems to be bitten by this same risk bug and it seems like an emotional one. We would likely have won in regulation last week if he went for a chip shot. And he opted out of a FG yesterday inside the 10 yard line with a 1 point lead where we would have led by 4. That makes me nervous because that meant we had to keep Oklahoma outside the 35 yard line. Luckily we tipped a pass and got the INT and the win. And yes I know, we missed 2 FGs against LSU so it might not have mattered. But don't forget, there's a rhythm to football, and keeping the kicker on the sideline when he's got an easy one might have a psychological effect. Analytics isn't everything.
Just to be clear, I'm not quibbling with his decision to go for 2 vs. SC and LSU. Those were game winners and that's a different situation.
Is anyone else bothered by this trend or is it just me?
I get that analytics says the percentages favor going for it on 4th and short in certain situations, about 54% success rate vs. 86% for FGs. But there is an argument to be made about the asymmetrical risk of loss. See Dan Campbell and the Lions in 2023. He adopted a "this is who we are" mentality and his players bought in. But when the freaking SUPER BOWL is on the line, you have to at least consider those decisions. Campbell opted out of 2 makeable FGs and lost by 3. That's a potential career ending decision and the Lions may never sniff the Super Bowl again. I watched the Cowboys lose an important division game where they would have won if they just kicked FGs, just a year or so ago.
(The opposite end of the spectrum was Tom Landry of the Cowboys. He was always taking the conservative approach and rarely took chances. He was a legend but that was the single knock on him. Even Staubach complained about it in his book.)
Stein seems to be bitten by this same risk bug and it seems like an emotional one. We would likely have won in regulation last week if he went for a chip shot. And he opted out of a FG yesterday inside the 10 yard line with a 1 point lead where we would have led by 4. That makes me nervous because that meant we had to keep Oklahoma outside the 35 yard line. Luckily we tipped a pass and got the INT and the win. And yes I know, we missed 2 FGs against LSU so it might not have mattered. But don't forget, there's a rhythm to football, and keeping the kicker on the sideline when he's got an easy one might have a psychological effect. Analytics isn't everything.
Just to be clear, I'm not quibbling with his decision to go for 2 vs. SC and LSU. Those were game winners and that's a different situation.
Is anyone else bothered by this trend or is it just me?
