This is a political post, but it really isn't. I’m not interested in arguing the merits of either party or candidate. Can we please keep that out of it. My question is this: Is the Mississippi Senate seat really in play? All of a sudden there is a LOT of money being spent by BOTH sides on that race. I can’t see that happening if they both didn’t think it was.
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- Thread starter L4Dawg
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No. It tightened a little and both sides saw an opportunity for opponent's resources to be diverted from more competitive races elsewhere. She wins by a wide margin (politically speaking).
My thoughts as well originally but dang, you can’t get away from the adds now. I never saw that coming.
I doubt she can lose. She won 54% - 46% in the 2018 Special Election and the 2020 Election against Mike Espy. The Republicans have much bigger issues than Mississippi. However, i don't think it would be a stretch to think this one might be point or two closer. I suppose even the thought of a close Senate race in Mississippi would make some GOP buttholes pucker and might be why they are putting in extra resources.
The RNCC (compliments of the president's billion dollar slush fund) is pushing funds into every senate race unless the race is totally non-competitive. This one is essentially non-competitive, but close enough to generate an oversized ad buy. I'm not in charge, but I would tell them to spend the money in Maine, Michigan, Kansas, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. Mississippi is safe.
Most of this is amusing to me. TX is not going blue. KS, OH, AK? Not going blue. Maine? Collins has historically overperformed polling by four points or more. MI? The dem candidate is unelectable statewide.
My prediction is that there's going to be a crap ton of "Wha Happened" coming from the left post election day.
It's only not a blowout because Cindy Smith is such an unbelievably weak senator/candidate. A good Democratic candidate might have had a ghost of a chance. But not this guy.
TX will go blue. It will probably take another 10-20 years. But it will happen. CA was once a pretty solid Republican state too.
It depends on your definition of blue. The Beshear/Shapiro wing of the democrat party can be competitive in TX. The DSA wing cannot. The democrat party will course correct at some point, but it's going to get ugly first.
Absolutely Not - The Democrats just cannot win a statewide election in Mississippi. The ceiling for Democrats is 47%-48%.
CHS is not a good candidate. A better Republican candidate would get 54%-55% of the vote. CHS got the Senate appointment from Phil Bryant because multiple other politicians declined it (specifically Tate Reeves but others also)
Scott Colom has similar political beliefs as Mike Espy and is not as well known statewide. He will not get more votes than Espy.
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No, it is not. She will win a plurality easily simply due to the letter next to her name.
Also I wish in all her attack ads, she could have a little bit of honestly and just say "Scott Colom has done all these awful thing, don't vote for him. Vote instead for Cindy Hyde-Smith, she hasn't ever done anything!"
She is definitely a 'hold-your-nose-and-pull-the-lever-for' candidate.
You always run from behind. And CHS is more behind than most statewide GOP candidates at this point for a number of reasons.
This is why the national GOP is buying a buttload of more ads in this race. This last few weeks will be more than any of us are going to want to see.
She is easily favored but the GOP has got to be sure to win this MS Senate seat as they clearly expect to drop a race or two nationwide. They've got the funding, may as well spend it.
And we will still have the best congress money can buy!
This is why the national GOP is buying a buttload of more ads in this race. This last few weeks will be more than any of us are going to want to see.
She is easily favored but the GOP has got to be sure to win this MS Senate seat as they clearly expect to drop a race or two nationwide. They've got the funding, may as well spend it.
And we will still have the best congress money can buy!
I'm gonna hope there's an independent or 3rd party candidate. If not, I may just sit that race out.
The republican party is really good at putting forward candidates like this. Paxton in TX is another example.
So I want to ask this because I keep seeing that she’s a “weak senator”. What exactly are you looking for in a senator to make them a “strong senator”?
I’m not trying to be a dick but I kinda am because I can’t wait for the responses. I’ll hang up and listen.
I’m not trying to be a dick but I kinda am because I can’t wait for the responses. I’ll hang up and listen.
No idea, but the idea that any political candidate thinks that spamming my cell phone is a path to getting my vote is quite mistaken. I may never be able to vote again at the rate I'm removing them from consideration simply for being a$$hats about spam
I'll wait for the answer or answers as well.
As a lifelong Mississippi native, there is only one metric I use to evaluate a Mississippi Senator: the dollar amount of federal largesse delivered to Mississippi communities compliments of the position/leadership/influence of said Mississippi Senator. It is literally the only metric that makes a rat's @$$ of difference to this state. Historically, Mississippi has been blessed with Senators who over-perform primarily due to inherent political skills/relationship skills and longevity. Takes a while for them to get to that point, but once there, the pay-off is enormous.
My thinking is it relates to what someone can actually get done in the Senate. She does not Chair any commitees, so that would make her weaker when compared to Wicker who chairs Armend Services and previous Senators like Cochran who chaired Senate Appropriations. Lott was Majority / Minority Leader.
But that takes seniority which she will climb the ladder pretty high after this election cycle.
If you keep re electing new people what @Shmuley pointed out above will never get done.
She’s gotten a lot more money here than you think.
She just comes across as an empty suit. That may not be the case, but that's my impression of her.
Never give a dime to either the RNC or the DNC. certainly not through an electronic device. Hand cash to the candidate of your choice. Put it in his or her hand and never give them your phone number or email address, It never gets reported. It 's how I've operated for 24 years now and I never have to deal with that begging bullsh!t.
And if you can't shake a candidate's hand, you don't need to be voting for them.
I've never given a dime to the RNC, DNC or any political candidate, nor visited any of their online sites. I'll likely continue that trend.
I think in her particular case, there's an element of griftiness. Former democrat who read the tea leaves and changed allegiances. I realize that an awful lot of that happens in politics these days. But she's not the most popular candidate among the state GOP. So, if you're defining strength as "principled," I wouldn't call her a strong candidate. There's also an element of her being appointed versus going through a primary, and then coasting to re-election due to the R next to her name, so I can see where that would make her perceived as weaker. She may be effective at getting more funding for state projects, so if that's the definition of a strong candidate, maybe the answer is different.
It seems like such an obvious way to piss people off, I assume it’s actually the opposition misrepresenting whoever appears to be texting me.
Wish I could like this more. We wouldn't even be talking about Texas if it was Cornyn running. Paxton is an unbelievably terrible candidate regardless of what he believes in if he believes in anything more than money in his pocket. If he wins and I was a D I would seriously reconsider investing heavily in TX ever again. This should be a D layup but Talarico is pretty weird for Texas....excluding Austin.
texas is a carrot on a stick. The polls are always wrong. It's never ends up being close.
The money being spent in Miss is all for the 2nd Congressional District. The growth of Flora and Germantown has put that district into play. Even Kamala coming to campaign for Bennie. Bennie will end up wining it but it will be the last time. 2028 his district will change.
It confirms, along with many other things, that my representatives do not know their constituents very well. I also understand that on the backside of that they probably aren't bright enough to know that when the marketing person who sold the service to them tells them that they got 100,000 impressions off of that spend, they were not the right kind of impressions...
Also will be interesting to see the raw numbers. How many are simply sitting out from voting and yes I totally understand that voting participation sucks in Mississippi.
No need to vote when the outcome is clearly in the bag - which was the case well before MS "turned" Republican - unless you get woolly about civic responsibility.
Your post made me curious what turnout looked like the last few elections. These are just back of the envelope turnout numbers statewide:
2024 1,228k
2023 821k
2022 709k
I'd love to see 2026 numbers be better than the 2023 turnout but I won't hold my breath. No reason it shouldn't be better than 2022, when there really weren't any remotely competitive races.
And it's always WILD to me how many people simply can't be bothered to vote other than Presidential elections. And even then, in 2024 that was only 57% of eligible voters! I read the national average for '24 was 64%.
That's definitely true and Paxton is considered awful and corrupt by Texas Republicans. Imagine having a Dem candidate who said God is non-binary and white people need to check their privilege along with other woke platitudes that few admit to saying today actually winning in Texas. If that happens then it's really a sign of people being tired of Trump, MAGA and bad Republican candidates. Dems also have some duds, Talarico would be one in a normal election, but their guy in Jawja, Ossoff, is pretty impressive. I'd really like us to get back to having reasonable people on both sides, I'm fine with center left and center right, instead of having the extreme partisans determine our candidates in the primaries. But, to the question, I can't see a Dem winning in MS.
The Republicans nominating Paxton instead of John Cornyn may flip the Senate to the Democrats
Historically Texas is fool's gold for Democrats just like Pennsylvania is for Republicans. Trump has kinda changed the math on Pennsylvania & may have changed Texas also with the idiotic endorsement of Paxton.
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