Willie's 2027 Crystal Ball - Final PreSeason Edition

[Acacia]

Go to Rofkin for the details...

Projected NCAA scores including bonus points...

Penn State 199
Okie State 163
Nebraska 119
Ohio State 87
Iowa 87
Virginia Tech 86
Stanford 84
Missouri 68

Cue the discussion that no way Okie State scores 163. And 890 points for top 8 teams has never been done...

 

[PennState1985]

PSU scores 185

OSU scores 130

 

[Nitlion1986]

Go to Rofkin for the details...

Projected NCAA scores including bonus points...

Penn State 199
Okie State 163
Nebraska 119
Ohio State 87
Iowa 87
Virginia Tech 86
Stanford 84
Missouri 68

Cue the discussion that no way Okie State scores 163. And 890 points for top 8 teams has never been done...

Neither will happen this year either.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Neither will happen this year either.

What about Iowa dropping four points to finish seventh?

 

[Nitlion1986]

What about Iowa dropping four points to finish seventh?

Iowa has solid 7, 8, 9 potential. However, last year instead of beating the team to death preparing for nationals the Hawks came in rested and had a good tournament. With a really good tournament they could finish 5th.

 

[Acacia]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

A long BaschAMania show today. The majority of the show is about Willie's Crystal Ball Rankings, so I'm placing this in here.



0:00 - It’s Officially Wrestling Season
05:45 - Robert Morris Adds Wrestling
14:30 - Oklahoma State Not Streaming OSU Invitational
23:50 - Super 32 Nuggets & Bachmann Going 190
30:50 - Crystal Ball Final Preseason Rankings
41:00 - Iowa Expectations
55:00 - 133lbs & Oklahoma State Repeating All 3 Champs?
01:03:00 - Blaze/Ono Weights Thesis
01:08:15 - 141lbs & 149lbs
01:18:45 - 157 &165
01:32:40 - What Will Mesenbrink Be Up at 174
01:43:00 - 184, 197 and 285 All Kinda Chalk
01:50:05 - Team Race
01:57:00 - Team Scores are Banan
02:2:20 - Closing Out the Show

 

[5q]

Does anyone have how he has the psu squad placing by weight

besides the obvious #1 at 125, 165, 174 and 197

what about where and who at
133
141
149
157
184
Hwt

 

[Acacia]

Does anyone have how he has the psu squad placing by weight

besides the obvious #1 at 125, 165, 174 and 197

what about where and who at
133
141
149
157
184
Hwt

5 #3s and 1 #5 at HWY… Ono at 141

 

[HikeNatParks]

Not sure where to put this, but . . .
Watched a video on the upcoming Cowboy season and was impressed. Not fond of praising our top rival, but not afraid to, either. Pushing its Stilly Boys brand as a hip, video-centric catalog of human-interest stories about the team and its members seems effective in a social media world. Creates a vibe that while PSU is the premier room/staff combo, it’s also the established, solid, no-nonsense option for elite recruits. The Father Knows Best, wingtip shoes choice.
In contrast, Taylor’s OSU has a fresh, startup feel to it, with a focus on presenting that angle online. Buckets of young talent don’t hurt, either.
Best part of this classic mentor/student rivalry is the speed at which it got real.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

from BaschAMania, where Basch exhibited his screen, which showed the Crystal Ball rankings from Rofkin:

125: Lillendahl - #1
133: Blaze - #3
141: Ono - #3
149: SVN - #3
157: Kasak - #3
165: Duke - #1
174: Mesenbrink - #1
184: Welsh - #3
197: Barr - #1
285: Mirasola - #5

I should note that @WillieTheBrain was pretty clear that he didn't know what CS would do at 133 & 141, but had to make a guess for the final preseason Crystal Ball.

 

[namenoonechose]

I should not that @WillieTheBrain was pretty clear that he didn't know what CS would do at 133 & 141

The season is about to start.. I sure hope Cael has a plan

 

[ClarkstonMark]

from BaschAMania, where Basch exhibited his screen, which showed the Crystal Ball rankings from Rofkin:

125: Lillendahl - #1
133: Blaze - #3
141: Ono - #3
149: SVN - #3
157: Kasak - #3
165: Duke - #1
174: Mesenbrink - #1
184: Welsh - #3
197: Barr - #1
285: Mirasola - #5

I should not that @WillieTheBrain was pretty clear that he didn't know what CS would do at 133 & 141, but had to make a guess for the final preseason Crystal Ball.

WIllie knows ..... 10-0 in each wrestler's final match!!

 

[Nitlion1986]

The season is about to start.. I sure hope Cael has a plan

He'll stumble through, just like always. Yet somehow, successfully. Just like always.

 

[JA1339]

from BaschAMania, where Basch exhibited his screen, which showed the Crystal Ball rankings from Rofkin:

125: Lillendahl - #1
133: Blaze - #3
141: Ono - #3
149: SVN - #3
157: Kasak - #3
165: Duke - #1
174: Mesenbrink - #1
184: Welsh - #3
197: Barr - #1
285: Mirasola - #5

I should note that @WillieTheBrain was pretty clear that he didn't know what CS would do at 133 & 141, but had to make a guess for the final preseason Crystal Ball.

Which Mirasola does he have going?

 

[Corby2]

Which Mirasola does he have going?

Cole he also has Doucet

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

A long BaschAMania show today. The majority of the show is about Willie's Crystal Ball Rankings, so I'm placing this in here.



0:00 - It’s Officially Wrestling Season
05:45 - Robert Morris Adds Wrestling
14:30 - Oklahoma State Not Streaming OSU Invitational
23:50 - Super 32 Nuggets & Bachmann Going 190
30:50 - Crystal Ball Final Preseason Rankings
41:00 - Iowa Expectations
55:00 - 133lbs & Oklahoma State Repeating All 3 Champs?
01:03:00 - Blaze/Ono Weights Thesis
01:08:15 - 141lbs & 149lbs
01:18:45 - 157 &165
01:32:40 - What Will Mesenbrink Be Up at 174
01:43:00 - 184, 197 and 285 All Kinda Chalk
01:50:05 - Team Race
01:57:00 - Team Scores are Banan
02:2:20 - Closing Out the Show

@WillieTheBrain made the point that guys like me are missing something. Something that is often true.

Namely, we are missing that the gap between the haves and the have nots has never been greater due to a combination of the portal, NIL, facilities, and information about recruits. For this reason he has 59 AA's coming from the top 10 teams. That certainly tracks as something that has never happened before. Last year was the record with 52 AA's from the top 10 teams.

Fair enough. That all makes sense to me. Is it possible that we see 59 AA's from the top 10? Sure, anything is possible. But I tend to deal in probable.

All of the influences Willie mentioned were in place last year as well. So it stands to reason that this year's pre-season rankings would also reflect that fact - minus the effect of incoming freshmen (a very real effect last year). But this is where I struggle with probability. Using Willie's InterMat rankings, as produced by Earl Smith, every single team in his top 8 (sorry, only the top 8 were listed above even though Willie referred to top 10 on his podcast) would need to outperform their current ranks. Every. Single. One.


Again - all possible. Again - not remotely probable.

And this is not a statement about history. I freely admit that any model built from historical data is meaningless when the present is very different than the past. And I think that is what Willie is arguing. I just don't think the result of that difference will be every single top 8 team doing what no more than one or two have done per year since the advent of the portal, NIL, facilities, and recruiting data have done (2021).

I was happy to be moot on this point, but I felt the need to respond.

That said. Who cares? A prediction is a prediction. A prediction is never provably wrong when it is made. It only becomes known to be right or wrong later. But a prediction also has great value in the present. It gets us all talking about the sport we love when there isn't any sport we love to talk about yet. Keep predicting, Willie.

Also records are fun. That why we track them.

I will shut up now.

 

[PennState1985]

@WillieTheBrain made the point that guys like me are missing something. Something that is often true.

Namely, we are missing that the gap between the haves and the have nots has never been greater due to a combination of the portal, NIL, facilities, and information about recruits. For this reason he has 59 AA's coming from the top 10 teams. That certainly tracks as something that has never happened before. Last year was the record with 52 AA's from the top 10 teams.

Fair enough. That all makes sense to me. Is it possible that we see 59 AA's from the top 10? Sure, anything is possible. But I tend to deal in probable.

All of the influences Willie mentioned were in place last year as well. So it stands to reason that this year's pre-season rankings would also reflect that fact - minus the effect of incoming freshmen (a very real effect last year). But this is where I struggle with probability. Using Willie's InterMat rankings, as produced by Earl Smith, every single team in his top 8 (sorry, only the top 8 were listed above even though Willie referred to top 10 on his podcast) would need to outperform their current ranks. Every. Single. One.

View attachment 1482792
Again - all possible. Again - not remotely probable.

And this is not a statement about history. I freely admit that any model built from historical data is meaningless when the present is very different than the past. And I think that is what Willie is arguing. I just don't think the result of that difference will be every single top 8 team doing what no more than one or two have done per year since the advent of the portal, NIL, facilities, and recruiting data have done (2021).

I was happy to be moot on this point, but I felt the need to respond.

That said. Who cares? A prediction is a prediction. A prediction is never provably wrong when it is made. It only becomes known to be right or wrong later. But a prediction also has great value in the present. It gets us all talking about the sport we love when there isn't any sport we love to talk about yet. Keep predicting, Willie.

Also records are fun. That why we track them.

I will shut up now.

Couldn't help it Wrestleknownothing

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Couldn't help it Wrestleknownothing

It fits. Like Brennan I have been called the songbird of my generation.

 

[WexfordWarrior]

@WillieTheBrain made the point that guys like me are missing something. Something that is often true.

Namely, we are missing that the gap between the haves and the have nots has never been greater due to a combination of the portal, NIL, facilities, and information about recruits. For this reason he has 59 AA's coming from the top 10 teams. That certainly tracks as something that has never happened before. Last year was the record with 52 AA's from the top 10 teams.

Fair enough. That all makes sense to me. Is it possible that we see 59 AA's from the top 10? Sure, anything is possible. But I tend to deal in probable.

All of the influences Willie mentioned were in place last year as well. So it stands to reason that this year's pre-season rankings would also reflect that fact - minus the effect of incoming freshmen (a very real effect last year). But this is where I struggle with probability. Using Willie's InterMat rankings, as produced by Earl Smith, every single team in his top 8 (sorry, only the top 8 were listed above even though Willie referred to top 10 on his podcast) would need to outperform their current ranks. Every. Single. One.

View attachment 1482792
Again - all possible. Again - not remotely probable.

And this is not a statement about history. I freely admit that any model built from historical data is meaningless when the present is very different than the past. And I think that is what Willie is arguing. I just don't think the result of that difference will be every single top 8 team doing what no more than one or two have done per year since the advent of the portal, NIL, facilities, and recruiting data have done (2021).

I was happy to be moot on this point, but I felt the need to respond.

That said. Who cares? A prediction is a prediction. A prediction is never provably wrong when it is made. It only becomes known to be right or wrong later. But a prediction also has great value in the present. It gets us all talking about the sport we love when there isn't any sport we love to talk about yet. Keep predicting, Willie.

Also records are fun. That why we track them.

I will shut up now.

 

[LostInTransition]

Fair enough. That all makes sense to me. Is it possible that we see 59 AA's from the top 10? Sure, anything is possible. But I tend to deal in probable.

How do you feel about trends? PSU keeps pushing the scoring record, the Pokes are trending up and now Nebbie and VT are following the same model of collecting top talent. If you have some time take a look and see which direction the top scores are heading.

 

[PennState1985]

It fits. Like Brennan I have been called the songbird of my generation.

A mix between Jesus and Fergie.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

How do you feel about trends? PSU keeps pushing the scoring record, the Pokes are trending up and now Nebbie and VT are following the same model of collecting top talent. If you have some time take a look and see which direction the top scores are heading.

Trends are real, but so are asymptotes. The thing about trends is you can't just draw a line. You also have to look at the process and if there are limits.

Since portal/NIL the scores for the top 8 have changed by -4%, +1%, +7%, +5%, and +15%. That +15% really stands out. It is hard to ignore what happened last year. And in fact, Willie is arguing for another +15%. To get there PSU has to average 19.9 per wrestler, OSU has to average 16.3. That is an average of first and second advancement and placement. And willie has laid out exactly how it could happen by working from the bottom up.

Yes, it could happen. I just doubt that it will happen.

 

[LostInTransition]

Trends are real, but so are asymptotes. The thing about trends is you can't just draw a line. You also have to look at the process and if there are limits.

Since portal/NIL the scores for the top 8 have changed by -4%, +1%, +7%, +5%, and +15%. That +15% really stands out. It is hard to ignore what happened last year. And in fact, Willie is arguing for another +15%. To get there PSU has to average 19.9 per wrestler, OSU has to average 16.3. That is an average of first and second advancement and placement. And willie has laid out exactly how it could happen by working from the bottom up.

Yes, it could happen. I just doubt that it will happen.

I'm with you, @WillieTheBrain admits to be overly optimistic. He's like me, looking at the best case scenario for each individual and realizing that it's probably not going to happen on the whole. Still, I see the trend continuing for the top teams to keep pushing the bar higher. I'll add that you're table above is selling us short on bonus points compared to recent tournament scores. My prediction is that we set a new scoring record and Ok St and Nebrasker put up big numbers for 2nd and 3rd as well.

 

[Col]

Trends are real, but so are asymptotes. The thing about trends is you can't just draw a line. You also have to look at the process and if there are limits.

Since portal/NIL the scores for the top 8 have changed by -4%, +1%, +7%, +5%, and +15%. That +15% really stands out. It is hard to ignore what happened last year. And in fact, Willie is arguing for another +15%. To get there PSU has to average 19.9 per wrestler, OSU has to average 16.3. That is an average of first and second advancement and placement. And willie has laid out exactly how it could happen by working from the bottom up.

Yes, it could happen. I just doubt that it will happen.

Another way to look at it is that Willie is treating this as 10 seperate events each with thier own margin of error. Unlike football where there is only one prediction per team in wrestling Willie is in essence making 10 different predictions and treating each as its own independent box that does not influence the other ones. However, each margin of error compounds the others. Willie could be dead on in 9 out of 10 weights and still be 20 points off the total. Wrestleknownothing takes a different approach taking the probablity of finishes (AA, Champs etc) based on rankings and historical performance to determine the mostly likely range of team score. Both are fun to look at....

 

[Acacia]

I'm with you, @WillieTheBrain admits to be overly optimistic. He's like me, looking at the best case scenario for each individual and realizing that it's probably not going to happen on the whole. Still, I see the trend continuing for the top teams to keep pushing the bar higher. I'll add that you're table above is selling us short on bonus points compared to recent tournament scores. My prediction is that we set a new scoring record and Ok St and Nebrasker put up big numbers for 2nd and 3rd as well.

Saying "overly optimistic" another way is that Willie made the most accurate individual picks based on current info (projecting weight changes and lineups) but also not predicting any upsets or factoring projected injuries. That estimate will result in being "overly optimistic".

I agree wholeheartedly the trend is the top teams are getting stronger. NIL started as money from boosters selling cars and personal appearances. With every school having a collective now it is clearly "pay for play". Beyond that scholarship values and limits have expanded dramatically for wrestling especially for the top teams. And "revenue sharing" from NCAA lawsuit settlement is making even more money available, again especially for the big schools. It would be interesting to see how much more money has been made available for the top wrestling teams in the last 5 years. I expect the trend to continue to accelerate for the next few years.

I'll also add that it appears top college age wrestlers are not just interested in NCAA championships but also freestyle Olympic and world titles. They are no longer waiting post college, so schools with top RTC programs are at a huge advantage as well.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

@WillieTheBrain made the point that guys like me are missing something. Something that is often true.

Namely, we are missing that the gap between the haves and the have nots has never been greater due to a combination of the portal, NIL, facilities, and information about recruits. For this reason he has 59 AA's coming from the top 10 teams. That certainly tracks as something that has never happened before. Last year was the record with 52 AA's from the top 10 teams.

Fair enough. That all makes sense to me. Is it possible that we see 59 AA's from the top 10? Sure, anything is possible. But I tend to deal in probable.

All of the influences Willie mentioned were in place last year as well. So it stands to reason that this year's pre-season rankings would also reflect that fact - minus the effect of incoming freshmen (a very real effect last year). But this is where I struggle with probability. Using Willie's InterMat rankings, as produced by Earl Smith, every single team in his top 8 (sorry, only the top 8 were listed above even though Willie referred to top 10 on his podcast) would need to outperform their current ranks. Every. Single. One.

View attachment 1482792
Again - all possible. Again - not remotely probable.

And this is not a statement about history. I freely admit that any model built from historical data is meaningless when the present is very different than the past. And I think that is what Willie is arguing. I just don't think the result of that difference will be every single top 8 team doing what no more than one or two have done per year since the advent of the portal, NIL, facilities, and recruiting data have done (2021).

I was happy to be moot on this point, but I felt the need to respond.

That said. Who cares? A prediction is a prediction. A prediction is never provably wrong when it is made. It only becomes known to be right or wrong later. But a prediction also has great value in the present. It gets us all talking about the sport we love when there isn't any sport we love to talk about yet. Keep predicting, Willie.

Also records are fun. That w

It fits. Like Brennan I have been called the songbird

It fits. Like Brennan I have been called the songbird of my generation.

Like a Yoko Ono-esque songbird? Just kidding! I'm actually a fan of your statistical prowess. Of course, I'm a little Rain Man-ish myself.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Trends are real, but so are asymptotes. The thing about trends is you can't just draw a line. You also have to look at the process and if there are limits.

Since portal/NIL the scores for the top 8 have changed by -4%, +1%, +7%, +5%, and +15%. That +15% really stands out. It is hard to ignore what happened last year. And in fact, Willie is arguing for another +15%. To get there PSU has to average 19.9 per wrestler, OSU has to average 16.3. That is an average of first and second advancement and placement. And willie has laid out exactly how it could happen by working from the bottom up.

Yes, it could happen. I just doubt that it will happen.

Asymptotes? I'm not sure, but I think I may have arrested a few of them during my police career.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Asymptotes? I'm not sure, but I think I may have arrested a few of them during my police career.

I know it wasn't for failure to walk a straight line.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

I know it wasn't for failure to walk a straight line.

But they had a horrible time counting backwards from 75-55 : )

 

[J.E.B]

from BaschAMania, where Basch exhibited his screen, which showed the Crystal Ball rankings from Rofkin:

125: Lillendahl - #1
133: Blaze - #3
141: Ono - #3
149: SVN - #3
157: Kasak - #3
165: Duke - #1
174: Mesenbrink - #1
184: Welsh - #3
197: Barr - #1
285: Mirasola - #5

I should note that @WillieTheBrain was pretty clear that he didn't know what CS would do at 133 & 141, but had to make a guess for the final preseason Crystal Ball.

That’s 4-4 in semis and 4-0 in the finals. Historically they win 80% of semis. I’ll go 4, 2, 3, 0, 1 for top 5 placements. That’s a record.

 

[Dogwelder]

What about Iowa dropping four points to finish seventh?

Perennial Top-7 Program!

 

[Shifty15]

Like a Yoko Ono-esque songbird? Just kidding! I'm actually a fan of your statistical prowess. Of course, I'm a little Rain Man-ish myself.

All linking us up with the Ono generations…past and present!

 

[mcpat]

Not sure where to put this, but . . .
Watched a video on the upcoming Cowboy season and was impressed. Not fond of praising our top rival, but not afraid to, either. Pushing its Stilly Boys brand as a hip, video-centric catalog of human-interest stories about the team and its members seems effective in a social media world. Creates a vibe that while PSU is the premier room/staff combo, it’s also the established, solid, no-nonsense option for elite recruits. The Father Knows Best, wingtip shoes choice.
In contrast, Taylor’s OSU has a fresh, startup feel to it, with a focus on presenting that angle online. Buckets of young talent don’t hurt, either.
Best part of this classic mentor/student rivalry is the speed at which it got real.

I think on the OSU site.

 

[El_Jefe]

Perennial Top-7 Program!

The Rutger of the midwest?

 

[WexfordWarrior]

Not sure where to put this, but . . .
Watched a video on the upcoming Cowboy season and was impressed. Not fond of praising our top rival, but not afraid to, either. Pushing its Stilly Boys brand as a hip, video-centric catalog of human-interest stories about the team and its members seems effective in a social media world. Creates a vibe that while PSU is the premier room/staff combo, it’s also the established, solid, no-nonsense option for elite recruits. The Father Knows Best, wingtip shoes choice.
In contrast, Taylor’s OSU has a fresh, startup feel to it, with a focus on presenting that angle online. Buckets of young talent don’t hurt, either.
Best part of this classic mentor/student rivalry is the speed at which it got real.

 

[AgSurfer]

Trends are real, but so are asymptotes. The thing about trends is you can't just draw a line. You also have to look at the process and if there are limits.

Since portal/NIL the scores for the top 8 have changed by -4%, +1%, +7%, +5%, and +15%. That +15% really stands out. It is hard to ignore what happened last year. And in fact, Willie is arguing for another +15%. To get there PSU has to average 19.9 per wrestler, OSU has to average 16.3. That is an average of first and second advancement and placement. And willie has laid out exactly how it could happen by working from the bottom up.

Yes, it could happen. I just doubt that it will happen.

Prediction using trends is actually quite simple. A trend keeps going the same direction until it ends.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Prediction using trends is actually quite simple. A trend keeps going the same direction until it ends.

No money has ever been lost with this thought process.

 

[Reiterate]

No money has ever been lost with this thought process.

70 percent of the time trends hold.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

70 percent of the time trends hold.

60% of the time it works every time