BWI Sports Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
The online book geolocates you to tell if you can bet on their site. If the VPN shows up as you being in NJ, I would think you can bet there. It looks like Hard Rock operates in NJ, so maybe try to log in with your VPN and see if you can make a small bet. For example, DK doesn't allow college betting in OR, but as soon as I travel to a state that does, I can bet college with my DK acct.
@Erial_Lion may be a better source on this. If you can get multiple outs for lines, it really helps in the long run. NJ has a lot of options.
First, see what sites operate in your state. Maybe do some quick research on AI to see if you can find the best deals. I would HIGHLY recommend that you look at bonus offers for signing up. I wouldn't have cared about this much when I started betting but realize now that it's well worth it. It's really hard to win at sports betting in the long term and every bit helps.
Sorry to sound preachy, but deposit an amount you can afford to lose and consider it to be expendable entertainment money. Even many of the best were losing bettors when they started. Bet small amounts. Usually 1 to 5 percent of your bankroll per bet. Even if it's a $20 bet, you will still have fun with it.
Again @Erial_Lion is a better source than I am. Let's just say that he's not a recreational bettor.
Another question for Grant and Erial - live betting. I'm sure you both dislike it and place your bets early, BUT...
Do you pay attention to odds as they shift very early in a game? Baseball is hard because 1-0 could be the final score, but football - if the odds shift away from some team you had your eye on and there's all kind of time left, do you do anything?
Do you pay attention to odds as they shift very early in a game? Baseball is hard because 1-0 could be the final score, but football - if the odds shift away from some team you had your eye on and there's all kind of time left, do you do anything?
Oh, no. I think it's great. My personal feeling is that you can do better overall if you get good at live betting than pre flop betting. I'm frequently live betting small amounts when I have time to watch games. I often look for situations where one team is dominating another but has had a few bad breaks (pick 6's etc) and is losing. Or like last night, when it was clear early that Liberty was going to dominate SHSt.
The obvious hazard is the lag. I'm really careful about betting during the flow of the play and try to wait for commercial breaks, time outs, etc.
My lag w/ hotwire/fision is almost a minute sometimes. It's bulk/community cable, so I don't have much choice. I have to turn my phone off during PSU games and avoid the live thread here.
I have several accounts. I prefer to use Fanduel but I also use Draftkings a bit. Bet365, if it's active in your state, usually gives $365 in bonus bets when you sign up.
I agree completely with what you are saying. Only bet what you can afford to lose. I make very small bets but it makes the games much more fun. I am way ahead, but you have to have patience to do it like I do because of my small wagers.
Roulette/Blackjack are games of chance, dictated entirely by statistical realities/eventualities (blackjack with some play in there for human stupidity in hands involving more than 1 player, and at least 1 player not following optimal moves; and for card counting, which is quite easy to do, but more difficult to do well, while hiding it from the casino).
That's not comparable to sports betting, no matter how much you wish it was, for some odd reason.
Another fact .... a Big Ten football line WAS off by 20 points (not in terms of attracting nearly equal bets, but in terms of making it tough to predict the winner). And you need to reevaluate things because it happened.
NCAA early round tourney lines are easy to beat. I provided you with evidence of this ... you know, when I just got lucky/on a hot streak (like I had for years, consistently).
It's so weird how consistently lucky I am. "Luckily," I have guys like you to assure me what's happening isn't happening, and won't continue to happen, even though it's continued to happen. Me sew dum.
Can't speak for Hard Rock, but Draft Kings utilizes your actual location to determine eligibility to bet as I explained in a previous post. In MA, you can't place bets on games involving MA colleges (unless in a postseason tourney). But when I travelled to another state, I was able to place a bet on BC without issue. Now, I have no idea if there's any prohibition about payouts and your location ... so, that, if I placed the bet on a MA college while in, let's say, CA ... but then travelled back to MA before the game happened, or ended, would it nix the bet, or not provide a payout? "Luckily," the game finished while I was still out of state and the payout occurred without incident.
Good info. I'll add in that if you get free bet credits (you can bet $X, but you don't receive the $X staked money if you win), the best strategy is to play relatively big underdogs on the moneyline. I won't go into the details. Google or AI will provide more info.
They're all pretty much the same. My advice, if you're just a novice betting small amounts, is to download them all (at least all the ones your state allows), deposit as much as needed/bet as much as needed to meet their requirements for their initial enticements ("deposit $50, receive $200 in bonus bets!" or whatever their current promotion is), make smart bets with that "free" money to maximize the return on that amount, then withdraw the winnings from all but one and use that one app going forward. This assumes you have enough "silly money" to deposit that minimum amount into each app, of course.
I use Draft Kings simply because they're much better about injury protection than some other options (you have a Barkley for 75 yards bet and he blows out a hammy in the 1Q, you're getting that bet voided ... some others will tell you you're SOL, or are more restrictive in when they'll void such a bet).
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I want to make it clear, I was talking about TV, not online betting. Hard Rock is up to the second somehow. Heh.
Also, I'm worried about my Columbia Lions. They look more like tabbys. That said - the lesser divisions give more leeway to -3.5 or -4's because no one can kick long field goals.
Lions came through. Rare 2U bet for me. Especially on a Friday. If anyone tailed me on this - you owe me a beer.
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Tonight's completely unthinking stealing candy from a baby parlay was IA v Wash alt o31.5, FSU v Lou alt o52.5, WSU v. USU alt o31.5, BYU ml for an easy peasy +153. Post hoc getting lucky yet again (we will, we will mock you). Played it super safe because, again, was too busy to put much thought into it, and I hate betting some of these teams. Was actually going to go alt u the SJS game, but I also hate unders. So much easier than chasing crumbs via attempted temporal arbitrage.
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It's all luck, man. I just can't compete with the brainiacs of sports betting applying basic stats knowledge. It's what I tell my investors ... "leave it with me, I'm a lucky SOB."
If I were @MtNittany (or someone new looking to get involved more seriously), I'd be looking at the legal books in your state, and reputable offshore books. Even if you have a VPN pinging in NJ, you could run into issues with getting money out, taxes, etc. You won't have to worry about those with a good offshore. And with my offshores, I deal almost exclusively in bitcoin. Sounds difficult at first, but it's proven to be a great method through the years to fund and withdrawal. Also, with your line of work, I'm sure you'd have access to some locals (I always tell people to find them at bars or golf courses).
As for live betting vs pre-game betting...I'm 95% pre-game (better ability to line shop, opportunity to beat the closing line which is really the only way to win long term, etc). The only time I'm live betting if is I have info that it's likely priced into the line (mostly college hoops related, and due to injuries/fouls that will change the composure of a game). Some believe in the theory of "see if my team gets behind and I can get a better line, but that "better" line is already pricing into it the fact that your team is behind and doesn't have as good of a chance of winning as they did before the game began.
And one other issue with live betting. A lot of books will post something like-115 on both sides. Usually not worth it. Bookmaker seems to offer reasonable odds for the most part.
This is only slightly less useless than walking into a meeting of the 5 bosses and suggesting that they don't use violence, or the threat of violence, to get their way, but ... utilizing offshore gambling operations is a needlessly risky, and downright stupid suggestion ... and coupling it with crypto ... ugh. I'll show myself out ... wait, put down the guns ....
Moogy's "Louck of the Week" = Georgia/Bama o51.5 ... should be closer to 70. You could probably parlay that with Tayhas -7.5 over Okie, which could be -17 ... though I absolutely hate betting anything other than overs when it comes to SEC teams in "real" games (SEC or name opponents). It should be noted, most of the fun is over, as Vegas usually starts getting their poop together, and more equal teams start playing each other, by this time of the year. You actually have to start working now to make good choices.
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My analysis thru 29 pages of plays in this thread…
Plays posted before a game starts: ~50% (maybe a touch higher, give credit for some early Cignetti love)
Plays posted after games have finished: 99% (Eric Cole keeps it from 100%, but he’s going to break thru some day to give a big score, hopefully in a week I have him in fantasy)
Plays posted before a game starts: ~50% (maybe a touch higher, give credit for some early Cignetti love)
Plays posted after games have finished: 99% (Eric Cole keeps it from 100%, but he’s going to break thru some day to give a big score, hopefully in a week I have him in fantasy)
It’s always easy to question someone else’s pick after the fact.The total combined final score was 47 points.
Someone needs to work on their math. 20+17 ≠ 47The total combined final score was 47 points.
Woke up with major bet regret. James Franklin always loses (at least ats) the game after a big emotional loss. I got scared of the Cal qb injury and their recent form. This should be an auto bet going forward.
lol you flunked math too I seeThe total combined final score was 47 points.
You and me both. I saw that 10 1/2 earlier in the week and was like, 'it's a game that starts at a local time that begins with a 12 and it's across the country. Those are the games he often has trouble with.'. But the Cal situation did not lend itself to being trusted. I was always told to never bet on a bad team so I stayed away. I also had the FOMO for Kentucky, Oregon, and Nebraska. Instead, I threw my money at teams that decided to suck the entire time. Fun stuff, this gambling.
I found out after posting. AI told me he was - go figure. The delete button that Jim has been harping on - yeah that would have helped.
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