Iowa at Washington as of 2:50 on Game Day

[IowaCityLit]

Oh I agree on Brown, but it looks like he's probably out.

A couple of those throws were outstanding and well covered. Brown missed or didn’t see open receivers the entire day.

Narrative about their play is way off.

if Wash plays man coverage Iowa should have open receivers. Hoping Heck recognizes them and delivers accurate throws.

 

[Jonesy5960]

A couple of those throws were outstanding and well covered. Brown missed or didn’t see open receivers the entire day.

Narrative about their play is way off.

if Wash plays man coverage Iowa should have open receivers. Hoping Heck recognizes them and delivers accurate throws.

I won't argue that Brown wasn't bad against OSU, because he was.

 

[oldxbbc]

Hawks back to +3 and 41.5 as of 6:40 PM Wednesday

 

[85Bears]

I’m seeing a lot of 20-17 UW predictions, including College Football News. I really don’t think people outside the fanbase know much of Hecklinski and just assume the backup qb is a downgrade. it’s very possible we upgraded at qb and the offense clicks with Heck.

 

[eyesofhawk]

Hawks back to +3 and 41.5 as of 6:40 PM Wednesday

Interesting. Back down to 3 on Caesars too.

If it drops to 3 across all books, then we've very likely had a steam job here.

And if we see any 2.5 again, we almost certainly have our answer

 

[2D]

Washington is coming off of two losses and will be hungry and scrappy. Washington has had great success with Friday night home games. Hawks will be bruised after the beating from OSU and down their starting QB. Once again the run game will fail as Washington's run defense is too much for our OLine to handle. Couple that with Kirk's West Coast Curse, and I see a solid win for Washington 23-13. The team will head into the bye week with more questions than answers, and with a rolling Minnesota team on the horizon, the season could get out of hand very quickly. Simply put, Kirk will have to prove he can win on the West Coast as it may make or break the season.

 

[Ty7]

Took the Hawks on the ML +140

 

[85Bears]

If Heck Plays well I don’t see a loss.

 

[Wobmam Rulez!]

I won't argue that Brown wasn't bad against OSU, because he was.

It was open kids day practice all over again for Brown. Both are incredibly inconsistent. I don't think either are really the answer.

 

[Wobmam Rulez!]

Washington is coming off of two losses and will be hungry and scrappy. Washington has had great success with Friday night home games. Hawks will be bruised after the beating from OSU and down their starting QB. Once again the run game will fail as Washington's run defense is too much for our OLine to handle. Couple that with Kirk's West Coast Curse, and I see a solid win for Washington 23-13. The team will head into the bye week with more questions than answers, and with a rolling Minnesota team on the horizon, the season could get out of hand very quickly. Simply put, Kirk will have to prove he can win on the West Coast as it may make or break the season.

Hopefully this is a redo of the 2019 Holiday Bowl played on the left coast.

 

[Wobmam Rulez!]

If Heck Plays well I don’t see a loss.

Hoping LJ helps jumpstart the running game.

 

[85Bears]

Hoping LJ helps jumpstart the running game.

They will overload the box and tight ends/diaz/rv should be running open. UW is said to have a good front 7 and a weak secondary.

 

[Wobmam Rulez!]

They will overload the box and tight ends/diaz/rv should be running open. UW is said to have a good front 7 and a weak secondary.

The Gophers had trouble rushing but were able to move the ball through the air.

 

[85Bears]

The Gophers had trouble rushing but were able to move the ball through the air.

The opposite holds true for their O line, gophers had seven sacks, usc six sacks. They only convert on 29% third down. Their qb hangs on to the ball too long…..I think Phil blitzes the heck out of him.

 

[HawksRule73]

Washington is coming off of two losses and will be hungry and scrappy. Washington has had great success with Friday night home games. Hawks will be bruised after the beating from OSU and down their starting QB. Once again the run game will fail as Washington's run defense is too much for our OLine to handle. Couple that with Kirk's West Coast Curse, and I see a solid win for Washington 23-13. The team will head into the bye week with more questions than answers, and with a rolling Minnesota team on the horizon, the season could get out of hand very quickly. Simply put, Kirk will have to prove he can win on the West Coast as it may make or break the season.

How many years in the last 14 or so years, since 2012, has a season “got out of hand” under KF? I’ll hang up and listen.

 

[Kceasthawk@77]

Did not think the DB who suffered a hamstring in Michigan game and gave up TD late was cleared. Hope I am wrong.

Read what I posted again. I said, "all the DB's who played LAST week" have been cleared. We played OSU last week. Both Lee, and Lutmer left the game, and both have been Cleared. Brown didn't play LAST week.

 

[Kceasthawk@77]

yeah brown is out...imo our best db

Again Brown didn't play last week, which is what I said. And Lutmer is our best, (at least most versatile DG).

 

[Kceasthawk@77]

Washington is coming off of two losses and will be hungry and scrappy. Washington has had great success with Friday night home games. Hawks will be bruised after the beating from OSU and down their starting QB. Once again the run game will fail as Washington's run defense is too much for our OLine to handle. Couple that with Kirk's West Coast Curse, and I see a solid win for Washington 23-13. The team will head into the bye week with more questions than answers, and with a rolling Minnesota team on the horizon, the season could get out of hand very quickly. Simply put, Kirk will have to prove he can win on the West Coast as it may make or break the season.

So, what did Washington have the last two weeks off to rest? Sounds like their pretty "bruised" as well......

 

[Kceasthawk@77]

How many years in the last 14 or so years, since 2012, has a season “got out of hand” under KF? I’ll hang up and listen.

Only in the minds of some of the posters here after we lose a game or two. Then we won't win another game all year.

 

[eyesofhawk]

They will overload the box and tight ends/diaz/rv should be running open. UW is said to have a good front 7 and a weak secondary.

They may choose differently vs Iowa.

But Wash hasn't really been loading the box. Their base D has been a 4-2-5, with passive play vs the run from their 3 umbrella safeties.

But if they do load the box, yes it could open some passifier game. I wouldn't call their secondary weak, but they aren't top cover guys. And their passifier rush isn't great

 

[eyesofhawk]

The opposite holds true for their O line, gophers had seven sacks, usc six sacks. They only convert on 29% third down. Their qb hangs on to the ball too long…..I think Phil blitzes the heck out of him.

PP could mix in a couple blitzes, just to keep Williams off balance.

But given his wheels and lack of height, I'm guessing Iowa mostly tries to keep him in the pocket

We'll see

 

[85Bears]

PP could mix in a couple blitzes, just to keep Williams off balance.

But given his wheels and lack of height, I'm guessing Iowa mostly tries to keep him in the pocket

We'll see

im Thinking third and long, passing downs. They don’t have much of a run game. They are very susceptible to pressure. I’ll be surprised if we give up a lot of points.

 

[85Bears]

They may choose differently vs Iowa.

But Wash hasn't really been loading the box. Their base D has been a 4-2-5, with passive play vs the run from their 3 umbrella safeties.

But if they do load the box, yes it could open some passifier game. I wouldn't call their secondary weak, but they aren't top cover guys. And their passifier rush isn't great

I assume they will overplay the run like most teams have against us and dare us to pass. Their front seven is supposed to be pretty good. But after facing Michigan and Ohio states defense, we’ve seen better.

 

[oldxbbc]

Hawks +3 and 41.5 as of Thursday 5:45 AM

 

[nu2u]

The Gophers had trouble rushing but were able to move the ball through the air.

That was the key. Gophers killed them with short passes. Lindsey was 21/29 and 20/21 inside 15, most inside 10.

Have to try to establish the run but those short quick completions will be huge.

 

[HawksRule73]

That was the key. Gophers killed them with short passes. Lindsey was 21/29 and 20/21 inside 15, most inside 10.

Have to try to establish the run but those short quick completions will be huge.

That should be available all game. They play this goofy shell coverage where they have essentially 3 safeties playing an umbrella coverage, so there won't be much of an opportunity for deep shots. But the short/intermediate throws should be there all game if we're patient. I don't see us running well against them....not because we're not capable, but they just aren't going to allow it and we don't have an MG that they would have to account for in the running game that would help open things up somewhat.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Uh oh. Don't look now fellas, but we just GAINED a percentage point. Washington is now only a 59% favorite according to On3.

We are moving on up!!!

 

[eyesofhawk]

Back down to 2.5 on all major books.

Folks, what's we've almost certainly had here, is a steam job.

The sharps (more like gangsters, in this case) moved the line with early Washington action, so they could ultimately end up on Iowa +3.5, for most likely a larger amount.

The sharps that got Wash -2.5 and Iowa +3.5, can win on both sides, if Wash wins by 3.

And those who got Wash-3 and Iowa +3.5 can push on Wash, and win on Iowa, with a 3 point win from Wash.

I doubt what amounts to large money has been in a hurry to bet on Iowa, once it became more clear that Brown is probably out.

Thus, it was the sharps that wanted Iowa +3.5, all along.

This steam job isn't all that surprising, as it can certainly happen with soft lines just under 3 or 7.

Translation: the sharps like Iowa +3.5.

Does that mean bet on Iowa +2.5?

Not necessarily. More accurately, I would interpret it as not to bet on Wash

 

[JerseyCityHawk]

I'm afraid so. No way they start 0-3 in conference, right? Washington 31-16

Come on bro! Say it ain’t so!

 

[oldxbbc]

Hawks now +2.5 and 41.5 as of 5:30 AM Game Day

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Back down to 2.5 on all major books.

Folks, what's we've almost certainly had here, is a steam job.

The sharps (more like gangsters, in this case) moved the line with early Washington action, so they could ultimately end up on Iowa +3.5, for most likely a larger amount.

The sharps that got Wash -2.5 and Iowa +3.5, can win on both sides, if Wash wins by 3.

And those who got Wash-3 and Iowa +3.5 can push on Wash, and win on Iowa, with a 3 point win from Wash.

I doubt what amounts to large money has been in a hurry to bet on Iowa, once it became more clear that Brown is probably out.

Thus, it was the sharps that wanted Iowa +3.5, all along.

This steam job isn't all that surprising, as it can certainly happen with soft lines just under 3 or 7.

Translation: the sharps like Iowa +3.5.

Does that mean bet on Iowa +2.5?

Not necessarily. More accurately, I would interpret it as not to bet on Wash

Throw the ball.

 

[eyesofhawk]

Throw the ball.

OK. But only so much. Otherwise it makes it harder to win, per KF

 

[BigOHawk1]

So, what did Washington have the last two weeks off to rest? Sounds like their pretty "bruised" as well......

They are indeed, AIRBHG has struck their RB room, at least 3 RB's OUT for tonight, most are backups yet it could be notable...

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

OK. But only so much. Otherwise it makes it harder to win, per KF

What are the sharps and oddsmakers saying about that?

 

[oldxbbc]

Iowa +3 and 40.5 as of 2:50 on Game Day.