BWI Sports Betting Thread

[Erial_Lion]

I understand what you are saying. My counter point was that you are reading too much into the situation. There is a better chance that the players were a cancer to the team and the situation actually got better when they were removed. They were all new transfer players. I was more concerned about lack of depth than the team quitting on the coach. The box score indicates that they were much more in this game than the score shows ( they were covering until mid 4 th quarter) which supports my point. The bet was lost because of a 4 turn over margin.

SVP covered this one on Bad Beats last night. The interception in the end zone was disgusting.

 

[Grant Green]

SVP covered this one on Bad Beats last night. The interception in the end zone was disgusting.

The Colorado loss was on Bad Beats? I'd love to throw on the enormous pile of bad beats I've taken over the years, but this technically didn't seem like one. Yes, the INT in the EZ was a rough way to lose though.

 

[Erial_Lion]

The Colorado loss was on Bad Beats? I'd love to throw on the enormous pile of bad beats I've taken over the years, but this technically didn't seem like one. Yes, the INT in the EZ was a rough way to lose though.

Yes...with the +15.5 close.

 

[Moogy]

I have PSU at -5.5 (I'm giving an extra 1.5 pts for white out). Gonna grab a -1 now, as I see bookmaker has already moved to -2.5.

Even Kelly in Vegas knows to look at the ugly dogs

This is what were up against

So you would consider USC to be the "ugly dog."

USC's defense being atrocious would only point me toward looking at the Over, as there's zero faith PSU can stop anyone right now ... and maybe the only thing allowing their offense to thrive is a horrendous defense, like what USC bring to Happy Valley. Taking PSU is a homer bet at this point. The over is probably the play, though I think it's been increasing, making it less attractive.

I'd probably only take an alt over, and parlay it with other alts. I still think there's a non-zero chance this offense is so broken, it struggles even against the sieve that is USC.

This week's PSU-related betting outcomes aren't nearly as concrete as last week's expected demolition at the hands of Northwestern. That was "easy money."

 

[Grant Green]

Yes...with the +15.5 close.

Ah, didn't realize it closed at +15.5. Shame on me for getting a bad number.

 

[Grant Green]

So you would consider USC to be the "ugly dog."

USC's defense being atrocious would only point me toward looking at the Over, as there's zero faith PSU can stop anyone right now ... and maybe the only thing allowing their offense to thrive is a horrendous defense, like what USC bring to Happy Valley. Taking PSU is a homer bet at this point. The over is probably the play, though I think it's been increasing, making it less attractive.

I'd probably only take an alt over, and parlay it with other alts. I still think there's a non-zero chance this offense is so broken, it struggles even against the sieve that is USC.

This week's PSU-related betting outcomes aren't nearly as concrete as last week's expected demolition at the hands of Northwestern. That was "easy money."

I would not consider USC to be an ugly dog considering that they won last week and PSU got clobbered in a Friday night game.

Taking PSU is 100% not a homer bet. I never ever make homer bets. My power ratings have these teams near equal (PSU 1 point better). The white-out home game plus USC's poor form on long travel make this a >3 point advantage for PSU.

I have no opinion on the total. If you like it, you should bet it yourself. The total opened up at about 56.5 and has been bet down. It's currently at 54 on bookmaker.

 

[Moogy]

I would not consider USC to be an ugly dog considering that they won last week and PSU got clobbered in a Friday night game.

Taking PSU is 100% not a homer bet. I never ever make homer bets. My power ratings have these teams near equal (PSU 1 point better). The white-out home game plus USC's poor form on long travel make this a >3 point advantage for PSU.

I have no opinion on the total. If you like it, you should bet it yourself. The total opened up at about 56.5 and has been bet down. It's currently at 54 on bookmaker.

Re "ugly dog" ... OK. I was just going off the conversation. I consider an "ugly dog" to be one that is a huge underdog and suffers that fate because they've been terrible, and they're up against a respected opponent. I didn't see an "ugly dog" in the PSU v. USC matchup, since PSU is getting a ton of respect, straddling between being a very small dog to, now, a favorite, despite looking awful and going against a ranked squad. Happy for the clarification.

Re "homer bet" ... OK. Your analysis is much different than my own. I see being convinced enough at PSU's competitiveness in this game to wager on it as being the product of homerism by a PSU guy. Apparently it's just analysis I don't agree with at all.

Re the total ... I don't pay much mind to early lines ... I would only make wagers closer to game time, when as much information as possible has been gathered ... pretty sure I glanced at it and it was in the 52.5 range, and now it's ticked up to 54.5. I could be wrong on that, because I wasn't considering a wager when I first saw the alleged 52.5 number. 54.5 is pushing my comfort level, given just how absolutely awful PSU has been, offensively, over the last 2 weeks against Big Ten comp ... and not great Big Ten comp. If I was convinced they could even be mediocre, that 54.5 line is a gimme. The killer there is that Wisky focused on stopping the pass, and the running game couldn't really take advantage, and NW focused on stopping the running game and Becht couldn't take advantage. There's no clear path forward. Right now, I could picture a 40-17 type of whooping, and that's too close to the line to make that bet. As I said earlier, I'm most confident in an alt o/u ... a 47.5, perhaps ... and then parlaying it with some other alt o/u's, if I find some I'm comfortable with, to boost the odds to make it a worthwhile investment.

 

[Grant Green]

Re "ugly dog" ... OK. I was just going off the conversation. I consider an "ugly dog" to be one that is a huge underdog and suffers that fate because they've been terrible, and they're up against a respected opponent. I didn't see an "ugly dog" in the PSU v. USC matchup, since PSU is getting a ton of respect, straddling between being a very small dog to, now, a favorite, despite looking awful and going against a ranked squad. Happy for the clarification.

Re "homer bet" ... OK. Your analysis is much different than my own. I see being convinced enough at PSU's competitiveness in this game to wager on it as being the product of homerism by a PSU guy. Apparently it's just analysis I don't agree with at all.

Re the total ... I don't pay much mind to early lines ... I would only make wagers closer to game time, when as much information as possible has been gathered ... pretty sure I glanced at it and it was in the 52.5 range, and now it's ticked up to 54.5. I could be wrong on that, because I wasn't considering a wager when I first saw the alleged 52.5 number. 54.5 is pushing my comfort level, given just how absolutely awful PSU has been, offensively, over the last 2 weeks against Big Ten comp ... and not great Big Ten comp. If I was convinced they could even be mediocre, that 54.5 line is a gimme. The killer there is that Wisky focused on stopping the pass, and the running game couldn't really take advantage, and NW focused on stopping the running game and Becht couldn't take advantage. There's no clear path forward. Right now, I could picture a 40-17 type of whooping, and that's too close to the line to make that bet. As I said earlier, I'm most confident in an alt o/u ... a 47.5, perhaps ... and then parlaying it with some other alt o/u's, if I find some I'm comfortable with, to boost the odds to make it a worthwhile investment.

As I said, the PSU play is purely a numbers play and I only made a small bet on it. Not really any analysis, just pure power ratings and adjustment for the white out effect and USC poor travel. And the total was never at 52.5 at any book that I am aware of.

If you only make wagers close to game time, it will be very hard to win at sports betting. Period. It's not even a debate. Getting ahead of line moves is absolutely key to being a winning sports bettor. Many books judge bettors by their closing line value for a good reason. The only reason to wait until game time is typically to bet an underdog or an under when the line is moving against them. I fully support that approach.

 

[Moogy]

As I said, the PSU play is purely a numbers play and I only made a small bet on it. Not really any analysis, just pure power ratings and adjustment for the white out effect and USC poor travel. And the total was never at 52.5 at any book that I am aware of.

If you only make wagers close to game time, it will be very hard to win at sports betting. Period. It's not even a debate. Getting ahead of line moves is absolutely key to being a winning sports bettor. Many books judge bettors by their closing line value for a good reason. The only reason to wait until game time is typically to bet an underdog or an under when the line is moving against them. I fully support that approach.

I believe we've had a similar exchange before, but seeing value as only existing in line movements is akin to extreme technical analysis in investing, and trying to arbitrage temporal differences in access to information. I don't agree at all that this is the only route, or nearly the only route, to betting success, and still think the equivalent of superior fundamental analysis still can be quiet successful. I don't have nearly the respect you do for odds makers, and that's based off experience with them not providing me a reason to do so.

 

[Grant Green]

I believe we've had a similar exchange before, but seeing value as only existing in line movements is akin to extreme technical analysis in investing, and trying to arbitrage temporal differences in access to information. I don't agree at all that this is the only route, or nearly the only route, to betting success, and still think the equivalent of superior fundamental analysis still can be quiet successful. I don't have nearly the respect you do for odds makers, and that's based off experience with them not providing me a reason to do so.

You are disagreeing with me and countless professionals in the industry. The closing line is widely considered as the sharpest and most efficient. Don't trust me. Google it. Look it up on your favorite AI app. If you think you can beat the most efficient line vs the earlier lines, be my guest. You better be really good at handicapping and constantly looking for news.

I don't have respect for the oddsmakers solely. I have respect for the betting market, of which they are only one component. I have more respect for sharp bettors than the oddsmakers. They are the ones that shape the lines that you are betting into on Saturday/Sunday. They've already bet the **** out of those lines so you need to be better than them to win long term.

 

[Erial_Lion]

You are disagreeing with me and countless professionals in the industry. The closing line is widely considered as the sharpest and most efficient. Don't trust me. Google it. Look it up on your favorite AI app. If you think you can beat the most efficient line vs the earlier lines, be my guest. You better be really good at handicapping and constantly looking for news.

I don't have respect for the oddsmakers solely. I have respect for the betting market, of which they are only one component. I have more respect for sharp bettors than the oddsmakers. They are the ones that shape the lines that you are betting into on Saturday/Sunday. They've already bet the **** out of those lines so you need to be better than them to win long term.

Bingo...not to mention that if someone is that sharp and winning long term, then they themselves would influence the closing line because books would show them respect and move the lines off their bets.

Pretty much no one will win long term without beating the closing line since it's flipping coins.

 

[Moogy]

You are disagreeing with me and countless professionals in the industry. The closing line is widely considered as the sharpest and most efficient. Don't trust me. Google it.

I don't have to "trust you" ... I'm fully aware that this is true.

Look it up on your favorite AI app. If you think you can beat the most efficient line vs the earlier lines, be my guest. You better be really good at handicapping and constantly looking for news.

Deal. That's been my point from the get go. It's not the news itself that makes the difference, it's just better analysis, overall, and not allowing subsequent information to upset that eventual determination. In other words, I'm not waiting for some informational tidbit that'll put me over the edge, and hoping that no one else will know about it ... I'm simply waiting until the most information is out there as possible, practically speaking, before making a "final" judgment on what to wager on what.

I don't have respect for the oddsmakers solely. I have respect for the betting market, of which they are only one component. I have more respect for sharp bettors than the oddsmakers. They are the ones that shape the lines that you are betting into on Saturday/Sunday. They've already bet the **** out of those lines so you need to be better than them to win long term.

Correct.

The salient point still stands that you're putting most of your eggs into the technical analysis bucket, hoping you can read the tea leaves before other "investors" read the same tea leaves the same general way, and get your temporal arbitrage advantage, and that's your potential payout, rather than relying on quality of fundamental analysis standing on its own.

 

[Grant Green]

I don't have to "trust you" ... I'm fully aware that this is true.



Deal. That's been my point from the get go. It's not the news itself that makes the difference, it's just better analysis, overall, and not allowing subsequent information to upset that eventual determination. In other words, I'm not waiting for some informational tidbit that'll put me over the edge, and hoping that no one else will know about it ... I'm simply waiting until the most information is out there as possible, practically speaking, before making a "final" judgment on what to wager on what.



Correct.

The salient point still stands that you're putting most of your eggs into the technical analysis bucket, hoping you can read the tea leaves before other "investors" read the same tea leaves the same general way, and get your temporal arbitrage advantage, and that's your potential payout, rather than relying on quality of fundamental analysis standing on its own.

Specifically, what kind of information are you using later in the week to do your analysis that wasn't already available soon after the previous game, beside injuries? What kind of analysis are you doing?