Here you have it, folks.
Everyone's heard of "establishing the run" and "committing to the run". For these to be household terms, clearly they carry value. And vs ISU and Michigan, Iowa did neither.
Vs ISU, Iowa did not run consecutive traditional run plays until there were under 11 minutes to go in the game.
Give ISU some credit, as they sold out against the run and made it an unattractive option.
But from my under informed position, Iowa fell into the trap a little, as well. To abandon the run, is what ISU wants. So at some point, you have to fight force with force.
Abandoning the run also makes it hard to be the most physical team on the field, which is of high priority to KF.
I think Iowa also thought they had some advantages in the passifier game vs the ISU safeties. It turns out they did.
But it is easy to explore those options a little too frequently, and be distracted by the shiny toys, at the expense of the run game.
Happens all over the country. Teams sling the ball all over the yard. But it makes no difference on the scoreboard, as they hit on a couple big plays, But they spend most of the game not being able to run for short yardage on 3rd down and in the red zone. And picking up the penalties, sacks, and turnovers that come with high degree of difficulty plays.
Even when the big passifier hits, which it did vs ISU, it is often precluded by 3 and outs. Whereas, establishing the run can produce more frequent small gains.
Sharp sportbettors love a good running game, as it allows good teams to more consistently and predictably impose their will. This lowers "variance" of performance vs expectation. Literally, good sport bettors find success to be more predictable when having a good running game.
Just some perspective to illustrate weakness in the "Iowa must pass to beat good teams" narrative. For the record, I believe that to be overly simplistic, and only so true.
But even if true, it takes a running game to be consistent enough to beat everyone else. What good does it do to beat Michigan if you're going to lose to a NW type? Iowa isn't going to consistently roll through the "big ten west-ish" teams by throwing the ball around.
Anyway, the more frequently the ball is run, the happier the O-line and RB's are. It helps them get into a rhythm. And it activates the potential to gain a cumulative pounding benefit later in the game.
KF commented after the game about the tendency for the run game to be more effective in the 2nd half.
And Brown and Lauck (iifc) both commented about imposing will, and taking ISU's will and wearing them down with the run late in the game. Which BTW, is when Iowa started calling consecutive runs.
There's no reason to believe that this cumulative benefit wouldn't have been available earlier in the game, had the ball been run more frequently.
As for vs Michigan, consecutive runs were also few and far between.
Iowa ran the ball 3 times in a row for 9 yards on the opening drive.
Then 3 times in a row with about 12 minutes to go in the 2nd Q, with the first two runs accounting for a 1st down.
Iowa then ran it twice in a row, while backed up against their own goal line, in the 3rd Q. Then would have attempted a pass, but penalized. So ended up with a 3rd run in a row.
Iowa next ran the ball consecutively (twice) with 11 minutes left in 4th Q. On 2nd and 9, it was run, with a face mask occurring on Michigan. This gave a 1st down, where Iowa ran again. Whereas without the penalty, the Hawks probably wouldn't have run again on 3rd and long to medium.
After that, Iowa did not have consecutive run plays in the game.
Again, Michigan deserves some credit. Their D is tough, no matter how you attack it.
As for vs the run, their entire D-line is NFL players.
And from what's again, a very underinformed perspective, it seems to me that Iowa has consistently been a little too gunshy to pound it out vs the most talented teams, and gone a little too quick and often to the air.
But mostly what happened in this game was Michigan being able to bend the Iowa defense, which kept Iowa's offense off the field. So Iowa really didn't have as much opportunity to establish the run. The series when backed against their own goal in the 3rd Q, was Iowa's only possession that quarter.
So the bend but don't break D can actually kind of work against an offense in that way, when the opponent is good enough to bend the D and possess the ball.
But defense is more important. So I'm cool with the running game not being able to get lathered up from time to time. Even I know there are ways to win that don't involve great production in the run game.
That being said...RUN. THE. BALL.