Odds you had us scoring on that Final play

[Rambler Hawk]

I remember thinking - please just at least put the ball in play in the endzone...

Edit: AI has @15%.

 

[bulletproof90]

I was giving it about a 20% chance in my mind.

Which was amazing because from the moment we decided to go for the FG until after the second-to-last play I wasn't giving us more than like a 5% chance.

I initially thought Vander Zee was too far out of bounds to have gotten his foot down, but when I saw his reaction on getting up I knew that he knew he had caught it and that the win probability was now 100%.

What a crazy ride.

 

[Hawkfan_08*]

When we forced the punt and James let it roll to the 9 - 5%
When it took us 30 seconds to get a 1st down - 2%
When we got past midfield - 15%

Watching a Michigan player go down allowing us to have another play- 35% but felt karma was coming.

 

[MAXIMUSHAWKEYE]

I watched that final drive again and still cannot believe how we were able to score. Thankyou Michigan for your undiscipline behavior that led to two personal fouls. Even more unbelievable was the zebras actually calling them. Thats was the fairest I can ever remember an Iowa game against a home team.

 

[HawksRule25]

 

[PinkShizzle]

I'm not even going to pretend that I thought the Hawks had much chance. Slim to none.

I like being wrong in cases like this.

 

[HawksRule73]

When we forced the punt and James let it roll to the 9 - 5%
When it took us 30 seconds to get a 1st down - 2%
When we got past midfield - 15%

Watching a Michigan player go down allowing us to have another play- 35% but felt karma was coming.

I felt karma was coming as well…but for Michigan.

I honestly thought we had a good chance. I was at the Oregon game last year and Lester really impressed me with his ability in end of game play calling.

 

[yrunvs]

50/50.... either we would or we wouldn't.

 

[uihawk82]

I remember thinking - please just at least put the ball in play in the endzone...

I was thinking about 20-25% but only because the receivers and QB know the routes. But I was surprised they didnt pressure Hank right up the middle but no big blitz.

Then I read postgame at HawkCentral the players talking about how they practice that 5 wideout spread formation all the time with the QB reading what he thinks is the best matchup. Brown I think said he saw Mich in press coverage on RVZ so he thought RVZ could get past him. That is how it turned out, RVZ had the DBAck turned and looked for the back shoulder throw which worked. Practice is good planning and it worked.

So for the hawks a great play and win.

 

[HawkBall23]

I can't vote because I don't see "less than 0% of a chance" as an option.


But then again, I was going on previous seasons as to my thought process on that. (*cough*BF*ahem*)

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

I thought for sure that the series would end in an INT or a turnover on downs short of the 50 yd line.

What an absolute delight it is to have a QB and offense that can make plays and move the ball when the chips are down. Almost forgot what that was like.

 

[Lionhawk85]

This wasn’t exactly the question the OP posed, but I actually looked at the espn win probability in the box score before we snapped the first play of the last drive. Said 3.1% chance for Iowa to win. I said out loud that is WAAAAAAY too generous. In my mind, based on how we looked to that point, anything above a 1 out of 100 was too generous imo. I’ve never been so happy to be so wrong!

It’s great to be a Hawkeye!!

 

[stillh8unlv]

About as much chance as I gave Iowa to score on the last play against Florida in the NCAA tournament.

What can I say...a lifetime of "that shot never goes in" hardens a guy

Two miracles in the same year.... not sure what to think!

 

[Rifler]

My odds on that final play were 50/50,... Actually getting to that final play was more like 1/1000:

- Completed tipped sideline pass
- Michigan personal foul
- Self Bobbled pass reception by Ostrenga
- Michigan injury time out

This many things never consecutively go Iowa's way...

 

[hawkeyebob1962]

My odds on that final play were 50/50,... Actually getting to that final play was more like 1/1000:

- Completed tipped sideline pass
- Michigan personal foul
- Self Bobbled pass reception by Ostrenga
- Michigan injury time out

This many things never consecutively go Iowa's way...

Yeah, we rarely have THAT much good fortune over the course of TWELVE games, let alone all in one, single game.

 

[EdgarAllenPodolak]

I thought we’d do a fade to the back right corner to Diaz at a 10% shot. One much like we did to McNutt to score in the Orange Bowl win vs GT. And I only rose above slim to none because the 4th quarter continued to see us make clutch passes. Brown reminded me a little of Banks vs PSU in Happy Valley in his first big road W: just one clutch completion after another. That final call was ballsy to me because the timing, touch, and route running has to be so precise. Just so perfectly executed.

 

[Jayb01]

 

[LIV4GOD]

10%.

 

[uihawk82]

I thought for sure that the series would end in an INT or a turnover on downs short of the 50 yd line.

What an absolute delight it is to have a QB and offense that can make plays and move the ball when the chips are down. Almost forgot what that was like.

KF has hardly ever had teams that are great in the 2 minute drill. It has been discussed many times how woeful it is like the end of the 2010 Wisconsin game. But KF has had a few of them and they were great.