OT: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Predictions Anyone?

[DJ Spanky]

We're already into the current hurricane season and have no thread on it. So figured I'd get one started.

Last year we had a prediction thread started by Real and an ongoing thread by #'s.

OT: THE RETURN! Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Prediction Contest!

OT: Melissa Making Landfall in Jamaica as the Most Powerful Hurricane Ever; 2025 Above Normal Atlantic Tropical Activity Forecasts from CSU/NOAA

Last year underperformed based on the experts predictions: 17/9/4 (Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes) - we ended up with 13/5/4 for the season with a lot of fish storms.

This year they've really dialed it back, CSU has 11/5/2 while the NOAA, which has wussied out from predictions, provided this range: 8-14/3-6/1-3.

CSU: Forecast for 2026 Hurricane Activity

NOAA: NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season







So, what's everyone's predictions for this year?

 

[Anon1754923206]

As a meteorologist this always seems like a pointless, media eye candy exercise. all that makes sense is “higher than” “lower than” or
"close to the average” season designation. An actual number is silly. Based on a rapidly changing ENSO pattern, I’ll go with lower than…in the Atlantic.

 

[Knight Shift]

Sorry if this does not fit, but this is wild, and right around the corner from Rutgers-happened Monday on Hamilton Avenue.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I think it sucks that storms get named before the season ever begins and those names get wasted on things that never turn tropical let alone hurricane force.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Alright, I'm going with 18/7/4.

 

[DJ Spanky]

@RU848789 any thoughts?

 

[DJ Spanky]

So Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the Gulf of America, appears it will be a short term storm as it heads west along the Gulf Coast. This is the 2nd storm of the season so far.

 

[Anon1754923206]

friend in Galveston said they had a few showers from ol Bertha. I had a 10 min shower…it just made things more humid

 

[DJ Spanky]

We're halfway through August, and so far we've had 3 named storms none of which reached hurricane status. The 3rd one was a fish storm that barely stayed around for a cup of coffee. On Aug. 6th the NOAA reduced their estimate for the season; earlier in July Colorado State University reduced their estimate from 11/5/2 to 9/4/1.

 

[RU206]

Doesn't El Nino lessen hurricane season?

 

[RUGuitarMan1]

Doesn't El Nino lessen hurricane season?

Yes, in the Atlantic basin. It helps create unfavorable upper level winds. Creates more favorable conditions in the Pacific - as we are seeing.

 

[Anon1754923206]

The enso correlation to PAC and ATL tropical systems is real.

So far;

West PAC: 26 depressions or stronger
Central/eastern PAC: 11 depressions or stronget

the whole of the Atlantic: 2 and the first one was dubious.

 

[Postman_1]

This storm is not a hurricane but I am seeing lots of flooding in shore towns in NJ.

Supposedly this is Lobster House in Cape May NJ. I did see someone comment it was fake but saw another post of flooding near C-View in Cape May. I lost power earlier but only for about 5 minutes

 

[ru109]

So far at least up here in North Jersey it's been a total bust.

 

[T2Kplus20]

So far at least up here in North Jersey it's been a total bust.

+1
Bust for CNJ, just rain. However, the southern beach towns are getting plenty of flooding.

 

[RUGuitarMan1]

A pretty typical nor’easter that you usually see develop a little later in the fall, usually late Oct and Nov.

 

[newell138]

A pretty typical nor’easter that you usually see develop a little later in the fall, usually late Oct and Nov.

Um no, not typical. We haven’t seen this amount of flooding since Sandy

 

[T2Kplus20]

Um no, not typical. We haven’t seen this amount of flooding since Sandy


View attachment 1456839

View attachment 1456842


View attachment 1456845

That's suboptimal.

 

[knightfan7]

That's suboptimal.

The 3rd pic is exactly what I'm seeing now. High tide here was 8:25. Sure looks like it'll be worse than yesterday AM.

Yes it appears to be worse than Irene, only topped by Sandy and the early 90's storm.

All ya can do is wait it out

 

[Section124]

So far at least up here in North Jersey it's been a total bust.

And I hope that remains the scenario. Just some wind and leaves/branches down.

 

[Postman_1]

 

[T2Kplus20]

LBI has been flooding from the bay for decades. One big storm will take out half the island.

 

[Postman_1]

State workers have a delayed opening today because of this

 

[Knight Shift]

This storm is not a hurricane but I am seeing lots of flooding in shore towns in NJ.

Supposedly this is Lobster House in Cape May NJ. I did see someone comment it was fake but saw another post of flooding near C-View in Cape May. I lost power earlier but only for about 5 minutes

Yeah, this was bad. This is Holgate

Keyport:

Sea Bright-my old crew!!

Bradley Beach:

Ship Bottom:

https://www.app.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2026/09/27/noreaster-brings-rain-winds-flooding-across-jersey-shore/91977187007/

MSN

 

[RUGuitarMan1]

Yeah, this was bad. This is Holgate

Keyport:

Sea Bright-my old crew!!

Bradley Beach:

Ship Bottom:

https://www.app.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2026/09/27/noreaster-brings-rain-winds-flooding-across-jersey-shore/91977187007/

MSN

This was very bad at the coast. My earlier comments were based on my observation more inland in northeast NJ. The slow movement of this system compounded the flooding with multiple high tides and a strong northeast wind for several days. We have friends and have stayed in Holgate and Bradley Beach and it looks like the beach is almost gone .

 

[Knight Shift]

This was very bad at the coast. My earlier comments were based on my observation more inland in northeast NJ. The slow movement of this system compounded the flooding with multiple high tides and a strong northeast wind for several days. We have friends and have stayed in Holgate and Bradley Beach and it looks like the beach is almost gone .

It looks like some of Bergen County got hit hard. Parts of NJ in western parts did not have it so bad

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yeah, this was bad. This is Holgate

Keyport:

Sea Bright-my old crew!!

Bradley Beach:

Ship Bottom:

https://www.app.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2026/09/27/noreaster-brings-rain-winds-flooding-across-jersey-shore/91977187007/

MSN

Lots of similar photos from the southern shore towns.

 

[Knight Shift]

 

[DJ Spanky]

Yeah, this was bad.

A bad nor'easter
Can we do haikus for it?
Or is it sacred?

 

[Knight Shift]

A bad nor'easter
Can we do haikus for it?
Or is it sacred?

The Nor'easter storm
Lots of rain and it blowed hard
Like Rutgers football

 

[dconifer0]

Um no, not typical. We haven’t seen this amount of flooding since Sandy

Yeah, this was surprisingly bad...

 

[Knight Shift]

Yeah, this was surprisingly bad...

You have a place in AC or Brigantine?
How was it there?

 

[dconifer0]

You have a place in AC or Brigantine?
How was it there?

Atlantic City. My street is on high ground (even for Sandy) and I didn't have any issues. But not far away it was the worst I've seen here. Water from the bay came all the way up to Ventnor Avenue (two blocks) in several nearby places. Further uptown the beach was pretty much destroyed...

 

[DJ Spanky]

The Nor'easter storm
Lots of rain and it blowed hard
Like Rutgers football

Would a nor'easter
Prevent the flood of footballs
Reaching the endzone?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Atlantic City. My street is on high ground (even for Sandy) and I didn't have any issues. But not far away it was the worst I've seen there. Water from the bay came all the way up to Ventnor Avenue (two blocks) in several nearby places. Further uptown the beach was pretty much destroyed...

The bay side is the most dangerous part of barrier islands.

 

[EddieWilsonLives]

Holgate/LBI, pretty wild

 

[RUBigFrank]

Ranking the storms
1. Sandy
2. and 3. Two Fall 92 nor'easters (movie - the Perfect Storm)
4. Sept 2026 nor'easter

 

[newell138]

This was very bad at the coast. My earlier comments were based on my observation more inland in northeast NJ. The slow movement of this system compounded the flooding with multiple high tides and a strong northeast wind for several days. We have friends and have stayed in Holgate and Bradley Beach and it looks like the beach is almost gone .

Yea it’s usually 1 tide cycle and done. This started Thursday night and stayed around till Sunday morning. Multiple high tides, wind, full moon,

Holgate/LBI, pretty wild

Is that real?? The people look fake

 

[EddieWilsonLives]

It's fake

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yea it’s usually 1 tide cycle and done. This started Thursday night and stayed around till Sunday morning. Multiple high tides, wind, full moon,

Is that real?? The people look fake

On second thought, maybe we should just keep renting down the shore.