Week 2 update on teams traveling 2+ time zones
B10 - no games this week
ACC
1-0 Cal covers at Syr. Per box score frauds above, Syr probably should have covered.
Since 2025: 8-7
BWI Sports Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
B10 - no games this week
ACC
1-0 Cal covers at Syr. Per box score frauds above, Syr probably should have covered.
Since 2025: 8-7
Misleading box scores.
WF probably did a little better than score shows.
Kansas outplayed ASU. I heard someone once say that turnovers are worth 5 points. I tend to believe it.
Mia (OH) was outgained but had a really high YPP. Not sure if it was from a few random big plays.
FIU may be undervalued after this unfortunate result.
Missouri State definitely bested Marshall. PS. Missou St has a stretch of games coming up where they play twice in a row on 6 days rest - midweek games. Second one is at Delaware.
Bonus NFL game. Don't overestimate the Bengals.
WF probably did a little better than score shows.
Kansas outplayed ASU. I heard someone once say that turnovers are worth 5 points. I tend to believe it.
Mia (OH) was outgained but had a really high YPP. Not sure if it was from a few random big plays.
FIU may be undervalued after this unfortunate result.
Missouri State definitely bested Marshall. PS. Missou St has a stretch of games coming up where they play twice in a row on 6 days rest - midweek games. Second one is at Delaware.
Bonus NFL game. Don't overestimate the Bengals.
Teams travelling 2+ time zones in conference:
B10
Rutgers covers vs USC (my fav bet of the weekend. USC is horrible in this role - good for PSU).
I'm calling Purdue at UCLA a push at Pur+14. Line started off higher, was bet down and spent a lot of time around 14, then +13.5 flashed at the end. I value the closing line the most (loss for Purdue), but it's close enough that a push seems reasonable.
2026: 0-1-1
Since 2024: 17-31-1
ACC
Stanford fails to cover at Duke
2026: 1-1
Since 2025: 8-8
Some notes for interest for the weekend.
Ole Miss at UF
I've been watching the Florida vs Ole Miss line like a hawk this week. I had this game circled since offseason and was really hoping I would get UF at a cheap price. Unfortunately, it opened at -3 to -3.5 and stayed there. I was hoping it would dip to -2.5, but it seems to now be -3.5 at most places. This seems like the classic Sharps vs Squares game, where the public is going to run to the window to bet Ole Miss. I almost think the books have priced this too aggressively for Florida.
VT at BC
Looks like there will be wind and rain in Boston. Bet the Over at your own risk. VT has been really good on the ground and run D has been solid, so advantage VT.
FSU vs Central Arkansas (throw the records out for this one)
Another spot I looked at in the preseason. FSU is off the Alabama loss with Virginia on deck (was a crazy game last year in which UVA won in OT). They play Central Arkansas, who is the alma mater of Norville. The line is currently +45.5 for CA. Not sure if I can bring myself to bet it, but I really want to.
Ole Miss at UF
I've been watching the Florida vs Ole Miss line like a hawk this week. I had this game circled since offseason and was really hoping I would get UF at a cheap price. Unfortunately, it opened at -3 to -3.5 and stayed there. I was hoping it would dip to -2.5, but it seems to now be -3.5 at most places. This seems like the classic Sharps vs Squares game, where the public is going to run to the window to bet Ole Miss. I almost think the books have priced this too aggressively for Florida.
VT at BC
Looks like there will be wind and rain in Boston. Bet the Over at your own risk. VT has been really good on the ground and run D has been solid, so advantage VT.
FSU vs Central Arkansas (throw the records out for this one)
Another spot I looked at in the preseason. FSU is off the Alabama loss with Virginia on deck (was a crazy game last year in which UVA won in OT). They play Central Arkansas, who is the alma mater of Norville. The line is currently +45.5 for CA. Not sure if I can bring myself to bet it, but I really want to.
(Definitely not) Locks of the Week:
Ole Miss/FLORIDA over 58.5
TENNESSEE +5.5 over Texas
WESTERN MICHIGAN +7.5 over Boise State
I was about to jump on Penn State, but see that line went up to -10.5. Loved it at -9.5.
Ole Miss/FLORIDA over 58.5
TENNESSEE +5.5 over Texas
WESTERN MICHIGAN +7.5 over Boise State
I was about to jump on Penn State, but see that line went up to -10.5. Loved it at -9.5.
I see -10 for PSU at most books. I'm avoiding this one. I think you may see some -9.5s pop before the game. More money is coming in on Wisky than PSU.
I bet PSU -9.5 and VoTech -13.5 on Monday. I think they've both gone up on HR.
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Yes, -10 and -14 now at most books. I may take a little VT. Running game advantage and BGJ likes to run it up when he can.
Can someone please explain the line on tonight's Eagles game? Case Keenum is the starting quarterback for the Bears because their good starting quarterback, as well as, their not very good back-up quarterback are both out. That leaves Case Keenum who is usually inactive on game days and who last threw a pass in the NFL in the 2023 season. But the line hasn't changed at all. It's still Eagles -3.5. It would seem to me that money would be pouring in on the Eagles right now and the line would move.
I don't cap NFL so can't comment on tonight specifically...but it's been trending this way all week that Williams/Bagent would be out, so it's not really new info that I'd expect to move the line today. And the public generally overrates injuries on a whole (in all sports), but especially QB injuries...sharps really look for opportunities to play backup QBs, basketball teams missing their leading scorer, etc.
I think that question has been answered by the result of this game. I had the Eagles at -3, so I understand the Bears love at anything more than +3. I'll probably upgrade the Bears by 1/2 pt and downgrade the Eagles 1/2 to 1 point after watching this game.
Misleading box scores of the week
Not sure how Temple didn't win. Army voodoo
Not sure how UM didn't win. Iowa voodoo
GA State not as impressive as the score
Rice score should have been closer too.
Not sure how Temple didn't win. Army voodoo
Not sure how UM didn't win. Iowa voodoo
GA State not as impressive as the score
Rice score should have been closer too.
B10
*UCLA crushed Maryland and covers for the travelling side
Minnesota covers at UW
2026: 2-1-1
Since 2024: 19-31-1
ACC
Clemson covers at Cal
GT does not cover at Stanford
2026: 2-2
Since 2025: 9-9
Looking at the B10 spreads this year, it seems like the market may be catching up on this angle a bit.
*At B10 media day, Chesney discussed how he got travel pointers from Sean McVeigh. https://collegesportswire.usatoday....cvay-advice-cross-country-travel/91105124007/
Will be interesting to see how that plays out.
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Since I've been capping, this upcoming college hoops season is the weirdest thing I've ever encountered. We're a month out, and still have no idea who will actually be suiting up for many of these teams. Bad news is it makes this really difficult. Good news is that it will give an advantage to those that work the hardest.
www.espn.com
College basketball eligibility: What to know about latest rulings
With a month to go until the 2026-27 season begins, we check in on the NCAA's player eligibility cases -- and LSU.
www.espn.com
So I’m supposing this is good news for you.Since I've been capping, this upcoming college hoops season is the weirdest thing I've ever encountered. We're a month out, and still have no idea who will actually be suiting up for many of these teams. Bad news is it makes this really difficult. Good news is that it will give an advantage to those that work the hardest.
College basketball eligibility: What to know about latest rulings
With a month to go until the 2026-27 season begins, we check in on the NCAA's player eligibility cases -- and LSU.
"Good" is relative...I think it opens up an opportunity to get some softer early season lines; but it also means more work to find them. I hope it helps me in the end, but definitely introduces more uncertainty along the way.
Eddie talked about it in the video above at the 13:30ish mark. He's on over 54.5...he said he'd really like it even more if not for injuries to both offenses.
As Erial said, EW likes under 54.5. One of my other favorite follows likes the under. That's about all I have on total.
VA Tech starting LT is out. Two other starting OL were out, but expected to play.
This opened around VT -4.5 to -5.5 and has been bet down to -2 to -2.5 so it seems apparent that some sharp bettors liked Pitt north of -3.
When it got to -2, I took a little VT. I don't feel great about it but I think JF generally gets the best of Narduzzi and is fueled by a lot of hate.
I would find another sportsbook because those are both bad numbers. There are -2.5 -110 available.
I wouldn't bet PSU at all, but if I had to bet at this book, I would prefer the -2.5 -120.
Technically betting through offshore books is prohibited but there is almost zero chance of being prosecuted, especially if you are betting small.
If you don't have other options, I just wouldn't bet it. Or wait until game time to see if the price comes down.
There is an upside to HR. They overreact and move lines so quickly that live betting - if you're really, really paying attention, and can act quickly - can work in your favor at times.
No doubt. When there was an independent platform running Oregon sports betting, you could always get good lines on Seahawks games because the locals would bet up the Seahawks. I bet it’s the same with in-state Florida teams.
If it were me, I would wanna have the hard rock plus several offshores to have access to, but I understand that some folks are hesitant to dive into the offshores. The more betting options you have the more profitable you can be.
Misleading box scores. We have a bunch.
Unfortunately, I was on the losing end of 3 of these (VT, Colorado, Texas St)
VT thrashed Pitt, who lost their starting QB. Turnovers tell the story.
Auburn vs Tenn should have been a close game.
Louisville with similar yardage as NCST but 8.8 ypp to 5.9. Again, turnover margin.
TT and Colorado - yards and YPP indicate it should have been much closer, but 4 turnovers! Apparently, someone at TT found the Colorado playbook in a public venue. It appears to be pretty credible.
TCU outgained BYU
SDSU had numerous players come down with the mumps and the line moved 3-4 points. This is the most egregious box score fraud, as TX St significantly outgained SD.
Hawaii should have won based on the box score.
Bonus NFL game. Usually turnovers tell the story, but this one is a strange one. Looks like penalties and 4th down conversions were the downfall for Wash. I wonder if there were some big special teams plays too?
I could have put the Rams Eagles in this as well, as the Rams significantly outgained the Eagles and should have won by a lot more than 4.
Unfortunately, I was on the losing end of 3 of these (VT, Colorado, Texas St)
VT thrashed Pitt, who lost their starting QB. Turnovers tell the story.
Auburn vs Tenn should have been a close game.
Louisville with similar yardage as NCST but 8.8 ypp to 5.9. Again, turnover margin.
TT and Colorado - yards and YPP indicate it should have been much closer, but 4 turnovers! Apparently, someone at TT found the Colorado playbook in a public venue. It appears to be pretty credible.
TCU outgained BYU
SDSU had numerous players come down with the mumps and the line moved 3-4 points. This is the most egregious box score fraud, as TX St significantly outgained SD.
Hawaii should have won based on the box score.
Bonus NFL game. Usually turnovers tell the story, but this one is a strange one. Looks like penalties and 4th down conversions were the downfall for Wash. I wonder if there were some big special teams plays too?
I could have put the Rams Eagles in this as well, as the Rams significantly outgained the Eagles and should have won by a lot more than 4.
No B10 updates.
2026: 2-1-1
Since 2024: 19-31-1
ACC
Wake travels to Stanford and covers by a lot
2026: 3-2
Since 2025: 10-9
TT has not been very impressive and Castellanos was out. My power ratings had this closer than the 13.5 spread, and based on the stats, that was true.
Give me ugly dogs over sexy favorites all day long.
So you are saying that there is no place for Karma in analytics?
The mood in the locker room of a team that is literally crumbling can’t be good.
I will absolutely fade a team that I think has quit. However, I think the public over reacts to the notion of a quitting team early in the season (late season is more in play though).
A good example is a bet that I actually won - FSU. After losing to SMU (and looking bad) and then collapsing against Alabama, everyone wrote them off as a train wreck. There were stories about moving trucks in front of Norvell's house. Well, they absolutely crushed UVA as a home dog.
And one thing I don't account for in handicapping is the other team getting you playbook.
https://www.si.com/fannation/colleg...nds-in-texas-tech-fans-hands-before-29-7-loss
Fixed it for you. And yes, most squares overreact to recent results, injuries, etc. I love playing on ugly underdogs.
Another example...Penn St coming up this Saturday. So many here have already buried PSU and think we have zero chance...yet the sharps have been all over PSU over the past 24 hours.
I have PSU at -5.5 (I'm giving an extra 1.5 pts for white out). Gonna grab a -1 now, as I see bookmaker has already moved to -2.5.
Even Kelly in Vegas knows to look at the ugly dogs
This is what were up against
I looked yesterday expecting it to a around a pick. I saw us at +2.5, and thought "should I take this? Nah, I'll wait and see if it makes it to +3 -115 or so". Oops.
I get that teams go up and down....I was just referring to Colorado throwing people off the team etc. Anything can happen on a given day I understand.....I'm just saying I would be reluctant to bet on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.
I understand what you are saying. My counter point was that you are reading too much into the situation. There is a better chance that the players were a cancer to the team and the situation actually got better when they were removed. They were all new transfer players. I was more concerned about lack of depth than the team quitting on the coach. The box score indicates that they were much more in this game than the score shows ( they were covering until mid 4 th quarter) which supports my point. The bet was lost because of a 4 turn over margin.
EDIT: Adding a caveat to this. As it gets later in the season, I wouldn't be surprised if the wheels do start to fall off CO and then I would avoid or fade them. Quitting time often occurs after a team is eliminated from bowl contention.
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