FPI update after week 3

[QuaoarsKing]

2026 SEC College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2026 SEC conference College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance for the season.

www.espn.com

Now ranked #22 with 91.3% chance to get to 6-6 and 20% to make the CFP

Game-by-game probabilities:
67.3% Missouri
31.0% Alabama
29.2% @ LSU
49.3% Oklahoma (I think this is too low)
11.6% @ Texas
75.1% Vanderbilt
60.0% Auburn (also probably a little low)
98.2% Tennessee Tech
33.8% @ Ole Miss

#3 offense in the FBS and #32 defense

 

[57stratdawg]

I think we’re better than that. We’re #10 in overall efficiency BTW.

We can win at LSU. Missouri has no chance next weekend.

We are so good on offense.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

After everything I saw yesterday, this team is capable of winning every game on the schedule. I don't think they will win in Austin or BR, but they could. KT will be running for his life in some of these games, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Anon1684630174]

LSU will be tough in BR. If Treydez Green is out, that will be a huge blow for them though.

 

[GloryDawg]

The going down by 16 on the road so fast was probably a good thing. Think of the confidence those guys have.

 

[patdog]

After everything I saw yesterday, this team is capable of winning every game on the schedule. I don't think they will win in Austin or BR, but they could. KT will be running for his life in some of these games, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

If we play like we did for 2-1/2 quarters yeah. But if we play like the 1st quarter & last 8 minutes, we may not win another game. Still a lot we need to improve on.

 

[patdog]

The going down by 16 on the road so fast was probably a good thing. Think of the confidence those guys have.

Going down 16 on the road is not a good thing.

 

[msstatelp1]

If we play like we did for 2-1/2 quarters yeah. But if we play like the 1st quarter & last 8 minutes, we may not win another game. Still a lot we need to improve on.

I’m hoping the last 8 was a deliberate choice to keep possession as long as possible.

 

[patdog]

I’m hoping the last 8 was a deliberate choice to keep possession as long as possible.

Of course it partly was. But we did a terrible job of closing out the game. If your up 18 with 8 minutes to go you shouldn’t be sweating out an onside kick with a minute remaining.

 

[DT4248]

Going down 16 on the road is not a good thing.

Going down by 16 on the road and coming away with a win is a good confidence building thing. Teams grow and evolve and this gave us a lot more teachable moments than last week's minnesota shellacking.

You learn a line from a win and a book from a loss usually. The optimistic coach should look at this as a win with an opportunity to see all the ways we need to improve live.

 

[Rick Danko]

Sam Leavitt (sp?) does not scare me one bit even on the road. We can definitely win that game. However, knowing our luck that will be when they decide to go to their backup QB and he will go Ham on us.

 

[Perd Hapley]

2026 SEC College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2026 SEC conference College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance for the season.

www.espn.com

Now ranked #22 with 91.3% chance to get to 6-6 and 20% to make the CFP

Game-by-game probabilities:
67.3% Missouri
31.0% Alabama
29.2% @ LSU
49.3% Oklahoma (I think this is too low)
11.6% @ Texas
75.1% Vanderbilt
60.0% Auburn (also probably a little low)
98.2% Tennessee Tech
33.8% @ Ole Miss

#3 offense in the FBS and #32 defense

Where does the “20% chance to make the CFP” come from? I don’t see that listed anywhere on the link.

 

[skip dog]

only thing I know to say, is I think we are capable, but we will remain in the "iffy" column in many places until we put a FULL game together against a legit opponent, and excel for 4 qt's in all aspects of the game (consistency)........and now that i type that, yea, I guess that would make us #1 in the country.....but we have question marks I guess, and we have to prove that we can resolve our questions

 

[GloryDawg]

Going down 16 on the road is not a good thing.

It's good going forwards.

 

[DT4248]

Where does the “20% chance to make the CFP” come from? I don’t see that listed anywhere on the link.

Maybe scroll to the right....

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

Struggling thru adversity builds character. Especially if you still get the dub. We will face much more adversity this year.

 

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Struggling thru adversity builds character. Especially if you still get the dub. We will face much more adversity this year.

Of course, we are in the SEC. Adversity and disappointment comes with the territory. But, this group has a chance to pick up where Dak & 2014 failed. Could happen.

 

[MuffinMafia]

LSU will be tough in BR. If Treydez Green is out, that will be a huge blow for them though.

Sam Leavitt is their QB and it’s a morning game in BR. Bring on the corn dogs