Good call. logically all classes will be about 10-20% smaller depending on the sport. You would think that it would be 25% smaller, but so many players were already using redshirt years to log a 5th that the impact will be less than it might appear on the surface.FWIW, the consensus at Fanlax is that fewer players will be recruited to D-1 schools in view of the 5 for 5 ruling. D-1 schools are predicted to have smaller classes.
UNC's 2027 class (high school seniors who committed last fall) was small - 6 players. By comparison, this year's freshman class (class of 2026) has 10 commits.
It is also important to remember that we already experienced all of this for 4 years after the COVID free year impact. So it is not new per se, just reverting back to a familiar recent history, this time with a better feel of what to expect. The biggest difference will be compounding 5 years of eligibility with hard roster limits. No more HPU games where they have 50 men riding the pine on the sideline during play.
And just like COVID years, there will be a ton of developed talent exiting Ivy League schools for their last year; possibly their last 2 if they graduate early. You will see the most impact in sports that The Ivy excels at such as rowing, fencing, wrestling, lacrosse and field hockey. But there will be individuals who showed out at most every sport.