A good sized, to big win over ISU usually measures the Hawks strength and record

[uihawk82]

From 2015 to last year the good and also big wins are:

Good: 2015 by 2 tds, 2021 27-17 but more of a beatdown; Both these teams really good record

Big/beatdown: 2016 by 39 pts; 2023 (20-3 with 7 min to go) really solid teams

Earlier teams: 2003 beatdown by 3 tds great team; 2006 decent win 10 pts but team crumbled; 2008 solid win 10 pts a very good team that could have been great with the right QB starting;
2009 beatdown 32 pts and a great hawk team; 2010 beatdown but a worse record than a team;

So those are the wins that were double digits or beatdowns which usually signal an above avg to very good hawk team

Even a few hawk teams that were really good lost to the clowns: 2002 of course which was a stunner and several where very good hawk teams with 8 wins or so lost on those last second FGoals like in 2014 and a couple recently.

This year I am expecting the hawks to run it well, move the ball and score 28 to 35 points. I expect the defense to hold well enough for a double digit win. Even at that the Hawks could have 4-5 losses but I am going with 9-3 with that win over ISU. If we lose to ISU that is not a good sign.

 

[83Hawk]

From 2015 to last year the good and also big wins are:

Good: 2015 by 2 tds, 2021 27-17 but more of a beatdown; Both these teams really good record

Big/beatdown: 2016 by 39 pts; 2023 (20-3 with 7 min to go) really solid teams

Earlier teams: 2003 beatdown by 3 tds great team; 2006 decent win 10 pts but team crumbled; 2008 solid win 10 pts a very good team that could have been great with the right QB starting;
2009 beatdown 32 pts and a great hawk team; 2010 beatdown but a worse record than a team;

So those are the wins that were double digits or beatdowns which usually signal an above avg to very good hawk team

Even a few hawk teams that were really good lost to the clowns: 2002 of course which was a stunner and several where very good hawk teams with 8 wins or so lost on those last second FGoals like in 2014 and a couple recently.

This year I am expecting the hawks to run it well, move the ball and score 28 to 35 points. I expect the defense to hold well enough for a double digit win. Even at that the Hawks could have 4-5 losses but I am going with 9-3 with that win over ISU. If we lose to ISU that is not a good sign.

Agree. Getting a convincing win over ISU usually means the Hawks have one of their better seasons.

 

[1inamillion]

Agree. Getting a convincing win over ISU usually means the Hawks have one of their better seasons.

It feels like last years game between mich vs osu. Mich was beating osu regularly but the personal difference was greatly in the buckeye factor. Osu won pretty easily. I the hawks will outman isu and kick butt.

 

[2D]

The Clowns have almost always been a litmus test on whether an Iowa team is good or not. That's because the Clowns aren't a very good program, no matter the year. If we aren't able to take care of business against a program like that, then the season is likely to be a down year. If we do beat them decisively, that more than often means we're in for a good year with a strong team.

This is why I've put emphasis on this year's game. New coach, new team, no identity, they don't hold that rivalry hatred like we do, and it will determine if this team will have a chance in that three game stretch. Going into the Big House 2-1 will not be good.

I thought about making a thread about this, but decided against it; Iowa State fans have become incredibly cocky, so much so that even more level headed guys like Chris Williams from Iowa Everywhere was getting offended at the idea that Iowa will win by a large margin this year. They genuinely believe that they can't lose to us after a couple of lucky last second victories. Their egos have gone unchecked for far too long.

Kirk must re-establish dominance in this rivalry. If I were him, I would tell Lester to run up the score as humanly possible. Embarrass the Clowns and give our boys some confidence under the lights at Kinnick. I know that isn't Kirk's M.O., but I think it's necessary for us to take back the rivalry and give this young team a great rivalry victory early in the season.

 

[1inamillion]

The Clowns have almost always been a litmus test on whether an Iowa team is good or not. That's because the Clowns aren't a very good program, no matter the year. If we aren't able to take care of business against a program like that, then the season is likely to be a down year. If we do beat them decisively, that more than often means we're in for a good year with a strong team.

This is why I've put emphasis on this year's game. New coach, new team, no identity, they don't hold that rivalry hatred like we do, and it will determine if this team will have a chance in that three game stretch. Going into the Big House 2-1 will not be good.

I thought about making a thread about this, but decided against it; Iowa State fans have become incredibly cocky, so much so that even more level headed guys like Chris Williams from Iowa Everywhere was getting offended at the idea that Iowa will win by a large margin this year. They genuinely believe that they can't lose to us after a couple of lucky last second victories. Their egos have gone unchecked for far too long.

Kirk must re-establish dominance in this rivalry. If I were him, I would tell Lester to run up the score as humanly possible. Embarrass the Clowns and give our boys some confidence under the lights at Kinnick. I know that isn't Kirk's M.O., but I think it's necessary for us to take back the rivalry and give this young team a great rivalry victory early in the season.

Kirk usually backs off but I think this year will be different. With all the trash talk, he should be looking for a butt whooping ..

 

[Iron Doc]

We should roll STATE without much problem this year.
Maybe clear the bench even.

 

[93hawkeye]

but, but, but, we need to end the series. please don't treat the game as a predictor or a rivalry or especially meaningful. Media, please don't cover the game. Broadcasters, please find another game to televise.

 

[1inamillion]

but, but, but, we need to end the series. please don't treat the game as a predictor or a rivalry or especially meaningful. Media, please don't cover the game. Broadcasters, please find another game to televise.

This game is not great for iowa. Isu loss is usually a bad loss. A win is a relief and is usually an ugly win. The everything to lose and nothing to win circumstance applies.

 

[Burghawk87]

This game is not great for iowa. Isu loss is usually a bad loss. A win is a relief and is usually an ugly win. The everything to lose and nothing to win circumstance applies.

I mean that also applies to the other 2 non con games each season.

 

[nu2u]

If we lose to ISU that is not a good sign.

Understatement of the year. Campbell and 55 players left the program - 55! A total rebuild for JimmyJackrabbit Rogers. The Hawkeyes are ranked and the game is at Kinnick Stadium.

Seriously, if Ferentz loses this game he should promptly forfeit his salary and offer his resignation.

 

[DuddyB]

History is out the door with this one. Iowa should win by 3 or more scores. ISU is going to suck this year. Im not convinced this Rogers guy is any good. Just very sophomoric to drop an F bomb at the basketball game. Usually the rah, rah types end up out over their skis.

 

[Grayhair1981]

History is out the door with this one. Iowa should win by 3 or more scores. ISU is going to suck this year. Im not convinced this Rogers guy is any good. Just very sophomoric to drop an F bomb at the basketball game. Usually the rah, rah types end up out over their skis.

ISU sucked mightily in 2014. They went 0-9 in their conference giving up 43 ppg. Iowa managed 17 against them and lost to a team whose only other win for the season was Toledo. KF is 14-12 against Ames CC. It is absolutely possible to lose this game.

 

[SA_Hawk]

ISU landed a pretty good coach and QB in the portal. This game will be a dogfight like always and Iowa always seems to play tight and out of sorts vs the clowns. Also Iowa hasn’t won in Kinnick since 2018.

 

[paednoch23]

Understatement of the year. Campbell and 55 players left the program - 55! A total rebuild for JimmyJackrabbit Rogers. The Hawkeyes are ranked and the game is at Kinnick Stadium.

Seriously, if Ferentz loses this game he should promptly forfeit his salary and offer his resignation.

I think the rebuild for him is likely no different than keeping the old players. The guys who left would have had to learn a completely new system anyway.

 

[BunchofAholes]

Kirk usually backs off but I think this year will be different. With all the trash talk, he should be looking for a butt whooping ..

I'd like to believe that, but it's just not in Kirk's wheelhouse. Killer instinct is not his thing.

 

[uihawk82]

Understatement of the year. Campbell and 55 players left the program - 55! A total rebuild for JimmyJackrabbit Rogers. The Hawkeyes are ranked and the game is at Kinnick Stadium.

Seriously, if Ferentz loses this game he should promptly forfeit his salary and offer his resignation.

Yeah, and the hawks lost that 2014 game by playing tight, even Phil Parker said they played too conservative even on defense. This year the hawks need to play lights out, hard and fast

 

[uihawk82]

ISU sucked mightily in 2014. They went 0-9 in their conference giving up 43 ppg. Iowa managed 17 against them and lost to a team whose only other win for the season was Toledo. KF is 14-12 against Ames CC. It is absolutely possible to lose this game.

I wanted Kirk to announce he would resign at the end of the 2014 because of this loss

 

[BunchofAholes]

I wanted Kirk to announce he would resign at the end of the 2014 because of this loss

His record against ISU is perhaps the biggest blemish on his resume.

 

[DuddyB]

ISU landed a pretty good coach and QB in the portal. This game will be a dogfight like always and Iowa always seems to play tight and out of sorts vs the clowns. Also Iowa hasn’t won in Kinnick since 2018.

I’m not sure either of those things are true in that first sentence.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

I’m not sure either of those things are true in that first sentence.

Hard to tell with the QB from Arkansas State

 

[83Hawk]

Hard to tell with the QB from Arkansas State

He is somewhat “proven”, while the Hawks will have an inexperienced QB.

 

[squeezebox_1]

I’m not sure either of those things are true in that first sentence.

Hard to tell with the stats. He did have solid pass numbers with over 3300 yards. The TD/INT ratio doesn't look fantastic, but those rushing yards could be affected by the 2.31 sacks per game they allowed (ranked them 100th in all of the FBS). With that said, I'm not sure the OLine at ISU will be much better.

 

[BunchofAholes]

I’m not sure either of those things are true in that first sentence.

ISU really is an unknown. They may be better than people expect. The Wazzu coach brought in enough of his guys that there may be a good core to build around. The other wildcard is we really don't know how they're going to play...schemes etc.

That said, I trust Phil to have his D ready and make any adjustments in-game. If our offensive line is a good as we expect, we'll be able to run on them. I don't think they have the luxury of playing it coy and hiding anything in their first game, they just have to get their feet under them. So I don't think they'll have any surprises. They will however be surprised at how loud and intimidating Kinnick is.

F-em. Crush em.

 

[nu2u]

-

I think the rebuild for him is likely no different than keeping the old players. The guys who left would have had to learn a completely new system anyway.

Probably right. 57 new players is a big challenge at any level. Read that Oklahoma State has 86 new players! These two teams will meet midseason in the Incoming Transfer Bowl.

 

[DuddyB]

Hard to tell with the QB from Arkansas State

I think he was a good get for the situation ISU was in. I like Iowa’s strategy this year of not investing in a QB that would suck up a lot of your NIL funds if you think that either Brown or Heck will emerge to be at least average or better.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I've been bringing this fact to a Hawkeye Report board's attention since 2015.........

Prior to the 2022 season, it was a guarantee in the KF era that if Iowa LOST to Iowa State that year, they were winning 7 or fewer games.

If Iowa WON, they were gonna win at least 8 games.

The only exceptions to that rule were the 2002 season (11-2 despite a loss) and the off the rails 2006 season (6-7 despite a win).

Things have changed a tiny bit in the past 4 years though.

In 2022 and 2024, Iowa lost to ISU but went on to scrape out 8 wins. In 2022 they won a farce of an exhibition game in the Music City Bowl over Kentucky for their 8th win, and an injury-riddled 2024 team that ultimately could only be labeled as an underachievement of a season, went 8-5 as well with numerous head-scratching losses.

Then, last year, we win 9 games with a difficult schedule and one of those losses being to Iowa State. I blame the residual effect from the prior season where the team never learned how to pull out tight wins against similar or better (ranked) competition, right up until the Outback Bowl, for why we failed in all our meaningful season-defining games.

At this point, while the narrative is no longer defined by a specific number, it still remains indicative of how good an Iowa team will be as the OP mentioned.

The lone recent exception being last year's team, who were actually a really damn good team that would've demolished Iowa State had they played at any other point after September, which is partially why I keep advocating to get this game moved back to Week 3 like it had been a number of times in the past. Last year's team was just haunted by past teams' inability to get over the hump and win big games/close games against ranked teams (ISU was ranked at the time we played them)................

With all that said, the other part of the reason that this theory isn't holding up anymore is because of the unpredictable nature of the NIL/transfer portal era, especially going into this year with ISU bringing in a new coach and roster, and Iowa having so many questions on their own roster and not really doing much to supplement spots that were decimated by graduation from last year.

That's why the ISU game this year may not be the measuring stick it usually is.

We could beat Iowa State and still go 7-6, or struggle to yet another ho hum fart noise 8-5 season and nobody would be surprised. Disappointed absolutely. But we have too many questions to truly feel confident about any really positive record this year.

The only thing that remains true at this point outside of the 2002 and now 2025 teams, is that LOSING to Iowa State all but guarantees that mediocre (at least offensively), or worse, football will be played in Iowa City throughout that season...................

 

[uihawk82]

We could beat Iowa State and still go 7-6 or struggle to yet another ho hum farther noise 8-5 season and nobody would be surprised. Disappointed absolutely. But we have too many questions to truly feel confident about any really positive record this year.

And what you said above is sort of why I put the Iowa wins in two categories, really 3 categories. There are the beatdowns of the clowns, the decent, in control, generally 10-14 pt wins, and I didnt even mention many close wins as guess what Iowa usually loses the close games (WHICH IS VERY TELLING ABOUT SOMEONE THAT I WILL NOT MENTION WHOSE INITIALS ARE KF).

The hawks had a close one score 7 pt win in 2004 and we had a great season.
Iowa had a 6 pt win at Ames in 2013 and that team was pretty good.
Iowa had two very close wins in Ames in '17 and '19 with Stanley leading the offense. Those were pretty good Iowa teams, especially the one that demolished USC in the holiday bowl.