U.S. Debt Hits $40 Trillion

[Perd Hapley]

That chart looks absolutely horrifying until it's compared in context to the increase in net national wealth (which people almost never do).

That's why 'merica can keep on 'mericaning into the wee hours of the morning. Foreign central banks are watching as US collateral rises with its debt obligation, you know, a lot like when you apply for a loan and the bank asks you to list your assets. As your assets increase, the banks give you more money.

Yes, federal debt has been increasing more 'proportionally'. No, net sovereign debt hasn't outpaced net national wealth dollar for dollar. The Gini coefficient increased by 0.026, or about 5.6% from the year 2000 to 2024. So the rich have gotten richer. But overall the context isn't nearly as scary when you factor in an economy that is as innovative as ours.

And there's an additional wrinkle: the Fed's national-wealth calculation excludes government land and other nonproduced government assets, so it isn't literally an appraisal of every economically valuable asset owned by the country.

Excellent points.

The national debt has always been one of those weird topics….where so many people are terrified of it, but no one can truly articulate what it would look like if their fears actually came to fruition, or what mechanisms it would take for that to occur.

To me, it’s like the CEO of American Express increasing the debt on his personal American Express card to unfathomable levels to the common man, but still levels that he can easily make the minimum monthly payments and more with his ridiculous salary. And if he ever finds himself in a pinch, he can simply rewrite the rules to say that AmEx CEO’s and board members now have 0% interest on their AmEx cards, or the debt is cancelled, or whatever.

The other weird thing is that the bigger the debt gets, the less risky it becomes, because it becomes more diversified by nature as it gets larger. The only event that could cause the rent to ever become due is a simultaneous run on the U.S. Treasury by hundreds of nations and hundreds of millions of individual bond holders (both private and institutional). The only mechanism for such an event would be the apocalypse.

 

[She Mate Me]

I am shocked that people dont consider many of his actions/declarations/policies to be disastrous.

- His inability to understand the difference between a trade deficit and a subsidy has resulted in a near 2 year long economic fight with Canada, that has continually resulted in him saying in various ways that Canada should become part of the USA.(not gonna list out the insane Greenland threats that seemed to come around the same time)

- His handling of tariffs will be studied in history and economic classes as example A for what not to do. Speaking of Canada, I saw he just announced that a 50% tariff on them is paused for now(of course it is). His abuse of tariff power on the world has made the US a complete joke. Everyone still has to trade with us and put up with us because we are valuable, but we are a total joke. The wiplash everyone has had to sit through over the last 18mo as he would declare tariffs, add to them, reduce them, add new ones atop current ones, pause them, implement them the same day others announced they were paused, then add new ones again because nobody can even keep up on what is tariffed, has been awful. Simply awful. It has been completely unnecessary. Placing tariffs on places on the map that arent even inhabited is just another level of bonkers.

- The lies, misinformation, and weaponization of DOGE has hurt us as a country. The break first ask questions later(if ever) approach was reprehensible. Meanwhile the GAO couldnt provide supporting data for 96% of grant savings claimed by DOGE. Countless people were fired from very necessary jobs, only to possibly be brought back because the jobs were actually necessary.
And all of the publicized DOGE drama ultimately 'saved' nothing at all close to what was initially claimed, and not at all close to what was subsequently claimed.

- We are in a worse place for global health than we were before Trump 2.0 because we arent as collaborative on disease work, which is irresponsible. We have reduced access to real-time global data and we have reduced global disease tracking...which hurts Americans.

- Trump's legendary grifting has generated billions for family and friends, and policies he holds as President are directly responsible for that. The Crypto scheming his family partake in, and his positions and policies on said marketplaces, is one of many specific examples.
It is all being done to benefit him and those around him, at the expense of improving the lives of Americans.

- Trump's war with Iran is so completely unreal that it is difficult to even know where to start. He and his administration just straight up lie countless times a day, they gaslight and attack when presented with reality, and he has threatened war crimes(actual established war crimes) more times than I can count.
It is a total disaster. Even if it ended tomorrow(I hear the Strait is fully open and has been...yet barely anything is moving), it will go down as a total disaster of a war/wars/operations(whatever they are cheekily calling it at a given moment). The war of choice, and it absolutely was a choice, has hurt international relations and cost Americans BILLIONS.
Right now, we are trying to just get back to how things were before the war and not come out even worse off. Seriously, that is the current best case scenario...returning to the status quo.

- His continued support of RFK's work to undermine medical best practices, and the policies that have come from said support, is disasterous and abhorrent.

- His policy for him and his administration to berate, insult, lie about, and attack basically any questions or criticism that pokes holes in the obvious lies they are telling, is disgusting. The fundamental destruction of decorum is disasterous.

Feel better???

 

[John Deaux VII]

As disasterous as the last year has been, I am still shocked and maybe a little encourged by the lack Trump lackeys rushing to his defense in this thread.

 

[85Bears]

As disasterous as the last year has been, I am still shocked and maybe a little encourged by the lack Trump lackeys rushing to his defense in this thread.

im Certainly not a liberal, but you have to be brain dead not to see Trumps foreign policy is going to run our economy off a cliff. It’s not in our national interest whatsoever.

 

[She Mate Me]

As disasterous as the last year has been, I am still shocked and maybe a little encourged by the lack Trump lackeys rushing to his defense in this thread.

Because most of us were never Trump lackeys. It’s just that the other options when he ran were completely unacceptable. I’d have really liked a better option in the last three elections especially.

 

[leeinator]

There will HAVE to be a major change in Social Security / Medicare formulas soon. I would identify the age of 50 and younger will have to accept less benefits and have increases in their SS tax withheld. This would be the "grandfathered in" threshold where generations that have time to adapt.... can do that. In fact, it needs to happen within the next 2-4 years, or the system will go completely broke. And on top of that, many other changes need to be completed to make the system viable. Even our current recipients over 50 will have to feel a little pain as well. Why Congress is not acting now and addressing the elephant in the room, I have no idea other than it's politics as usual. If nothing is done, then an economic bubble will soon burst that will make 1929 look like child's play.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

I'm convinced Trump caught syphilis and it's affecting his brain now

 

[The Cooterpoot]

There will HAVE to be a major change in Social Security / Medicare formulas soon. I would identify the age of 50 and younger will have to accept less benefits and have increases in their SS tax withheld. This would be the "grandfathered in" threshold where generations that have time to adapt.... can do that. In fact, it needs to happen within the next 2-4 years, or the system will go completely broke. And on top of that, many other changes need to be completed to make the system viable. Even our current recipients over 50 will have to feel a little pain as well. Why Congress is not acting now and addressing the elephant in the room, I have no idea other than it's politics as usual. If nothing is done, then an economic bubble will soon burst that will make 1929 look like child's play.

No, they should eliminate social security, refund my damn money and let me invest it. If they're going $40 GAZILLION in debt anyway, just let their asses fund it.

 

[ckDOG]

There will HAVE to be a major change in Social Security / Medicare formulas soon. I would identify the age of 50 and younger will have to accept less benefits and have increases in their SS tax withheld. This would be the "grandfathered in" threshold where generations that have time to adapt.... can do that. In fact, it needs to happen within the next 2-4 years, or the system will go completely broke. And on top of that, many other changes need to be completed to make the system viable. Even our current recipients over 50 will have to feel a little pain as well. Why Congress is not acting now and addressing the elephant in the room, I have no idea other than its politics as usual.

Because politicians and boomers are going to hang from the gallows when you say to younger generations "sorry, you're going to have to pay more to get less while the olds that won't sell you a house for less than $600k and made all the decisions that got us in this mess get to continue their lifestyles".

 

[Podgy]

I didn't say they were equally bad. I was saying every one of them contributed "bigly" to this $40 T debt. Every one. In 2000 Bush campaigned specifically on taking that surplus and "giving it back" in tax cuts which they promptly enacted in 2001 then again in 2003, 2012, 2017, and last year. That's about 37%. Then huge increases in spending. Medicare, Afghanistan, Iraq, Chips, Infrastructure Bill. About 33%. Then response to recession is about 28% of it. Plus interest that keeps piling up. We will spend more in interest this year than we do on defense. Just about all of this was done with bipartisan support.

I believe I was responding to someone else's post. I agree it's bipartisan with some exceptions for who the biggest spender is

 

[leeinator]

im Certainly not a liberal, but you have to be brain dead not to see Trumps foreign policy is going to run our economy off a cliff. It’s not in our national interest whatsoever.

If feels like he's just going to tighten the economic noose around Iran's neck and drag them along until they choke to death. Then once the midterms are over, he will likely unload on them and go for the final Regime change with an exiled government waiting in the wings to step in and take over.....one that is friendly with the U.S. but also aligns with Iranian people in the streets who have long hated their Regime. We'll probably arm them with light weaponry to overthrow their own government and the IRGC and support their revolution with air power.

 

[Podgy]

I am shocked that people dont consider many of his actions/declarations/policies to be disastrous.

- His inability to understand the difference between a trade deficit and a subsidy has resulted in a near 2 year long economic fight with Canada, that has continually resulted in him saying in various ways that Canada should become part of the USA.(not gonna list out the insane Greenland threats that seemed to come around the same time)

- His handling of tariffs will be studied in history and economic classes as example A for what not to do. Speaking of Canada, I saw he just announced that a 50% tariff on them is paused for now(of course it is). His abuse of tariff power on the world has made the US a complete joke. Everyone still has to trade with us and put up with us because we are valuable, but we are a total joke. The wiplash everyone has had to sit through over the last 18mo as he would declare tariffs, add to them, reduce them, add new ones atop current ones, pause them, implement them the same day others announced they were paused, then add new ones again because nobody can even keep up on what is tariffed, has been awful. Simply awful. It has been completely unnecessary. Placing tariffs on places on the map that arent even inhabited is just another level of bonkers.

- The lies, misinformation, and weaponization of DOGE has hurt us as a country. The break first ask questions later(if ever) approach was reprehensible. Meanwhile the GAO couldnt provide supporting data for 96% of grant savings claimed by DOGE. Countless people were fired from very necessary jobs, only to possibly be brought back because the jobs were actually necessary.
And all of the publicized DOGE drama ultimately 'saved' nothing at all close to what was initially claimed, and not at all close to what was subsequently claimed.

- We are in a worse place for global health than we were before Trump 2.0 because we arent as collaborative on disease work, which is irresponsible. We have reduced access to real-time global data and we have reduced global disease tracking...which hurts Americans.

- Trump's legendary grifting has generated billions for family and friends, and policies he holds as President are directly responsible for that. The Crypto scheming his family partake in, and his positions and policies on said marketplaces, is one of many specific examples.
It is all being done to benefit him and those around him, at the expense of improving the lives of Americans.

- Trump's war with Iran is so completely unreal that it is difficult to even know where to start. He and his administration just straight up lie countless times a day, they gaslight and attack when presented with reality, and he has threatened war crimes(actual established war crimes) more times than I can count.
It is a total disaster. Even if it ended tomorrow(I hear the Strait is fully open and has been...yet barely anything is moving), it will go down as a total disaster of a war/wars/operations(whatever they are cheekily calling it at a given moment). The war of choice, and it absolutely was a choice, has hurt international relations and cost Americans BILLIONS.
Right now, we are trying to just get back to how things were before the war and not come out even worse off. Seriously, that is the current best case scenario...returning to the status quo.

- His continued support of RFK's work to undermine medical best practices, and the policies that have come from said support, is disasterous and abhorrent.

- His policy for him and his administration to berate, insult, lie about, and attack basically any questions or criticism that pokes holes in the obvious lies they are telling, is disgusting. The fundamental destruction of decorum is disasterous.

Are you saying you don't like him and don't think he's the greatest president ever?

 

[Podgy]

As disasterous as the last year has been, I am still shocked and maybe a little encourged by the lack Trump lackeys rushing to his defense in this thread.

He's lost a fair amount of support. He was easy to defend in Term I, until Covid and that was a hard situation to manage. He had a good economy in his first term and the standard Republicans kept him under control and he was smart enough to not listen to neoconservatives. After Biden and Trump, I recommend not electing anyone approaching age 80.

 

[dudehead]

One of the biggest issues is people living longer. Social Security and healthcare are destroying our budget, Around 48 to 53 percent goes to those two. Our healthcare system is one of the worse among high income nations. We basically spend the most to get the worse.

I understand US health care is the best in the world on acute care.

 

[85Bears]

If feels like he's just going to tighten the economic noose around Iran's neck and drag them along until they choke to death. Then once the midterms are over, he will likely unload on them and go for the final Regime change with an exiled government waiting in the wings to step in and take over.....one that is friendly with the U.S. but also aligns with Iranian people in the streets who have long hated their Regime. We'll probably arm them with light weaponry to overthrow their own government and the IRGC and support their revolution with air power.

the noose is around the US economies neck, especially the middle class. The Destruction of our standard of living and our childrens future is not being done for our benefit, but at the behest of foreign interests.

regime change my arse

 

[leeinator]

Because politicians and boomers are going to hang from the gallows when you say to younger generations "sorry, you're going to have to pay more to get less while the olds that won't sell you a house for less than $600k and made all the decisions that got us in this mess get to continue their lifestyles".

Yeah, it's gonna be bad regardless......but it could be worse. Like I said.....just think 1929 times ten if nothing is done. There will have to be a grandfathered in age threshold where things will change substantially if the younger generations want to get anything at all at their retirement time. Don't be foolish about politicians and boomer hanging from the gallows..........who do you think owns most of the guns/weaponry in the U.S. Hint: it's not the folk less than 50 years old.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Because politicians and boomers are going to hang from the gallows when you say to younger generations "sorry, you're going to have to pay more to get less while the olds that won't sell you a house for less than $600k and made all the decisions that got us in this mess get to continue their lifestyles".

Bingo. And it's rich coming from a boomer @leeinator. They love to lecture us and point out the impending doom.

 

[leeinator]

the noose is around the US economies neck, especially the middle class. The Destruction of our standard of living and our childrens future is not being done for our benefit, but at the behest of foreign interests.

regime change my arse

Well, then go ahead and choose which American cities and areas you are willing to sacrifice to nuclear ballistic detonations within a few years...... Atlanta, New Orleans, NYC, LA, SF, Chicago, Miami?

 

[85Bears]

Well, then go ahead and choose which American cities and areas you are willing to sacrifice to nuclear ballistic detonations within a few years...... Atlanta, New Orleans, NYC, LA, SF, Chicago, Miami?

Turn off Fox News, it’s propaganda.

 

[leeinator]

Bingo. And it's rich coming from a boomer @leeinator. They love to lecture us and point out the impending doom.

Go back to 17ing your stupid a$$ Goats......you 17ing goat17er.

 

[leeinator]

Turn off Fox News, it’s propaganda.

No it's nooooottt Mr. DCA Communist.

 

[HailStout]

go for the final Regime change with an exiled government waiting in the wings to step in and take over.....one that is friendly with the U.S. but also aligns with Iranian people in the streets who have long hated their Regime. We'll probably arm them with light weaponry to overthrow their own government and the IRGC and support their revolution with air power.

Those regimes become immediately US unfriendly the moment they take power. I’m not sure there is a single instance of us doing it and it not backfiring

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

im Certainly not a liberal, but you have to be brain dead not to see Trumps foreign policy is going to run our economy off a cliff. It’s not in our national interest whatsoever.

We are putting our reserve currency status and the petrodollar at great risk for this war of choice.

 

[Podgy]

Turn off Fox News, it’s propaganda.

Fox and MSNOW have only a few million viewers and they are mostly elderly, closer to age 70 than age 50. They are as important as people think they are.

 

[Podgy]

Those regimes become immediately US unfriendly the moment they take power. I’m not sure there is a single instance of us doing it and it not backfiring

We're the little engine that could. If we just believe we can do it, it can be done. When has that ever not happened as planned?

 

[85Bears]

Fox and MSNOW have only a few million viewers and they are mostly elderly, closer to age 70 than age 50. They are as important as people think they are.

its Industrial grade slop. Our elderly would be much better informed if they watched Wheel of Fortune.

 

[leeinator]

Those regimes become immediately US unfriendly the moment they take power. I’m not sure there is a single instance of us doing it and it not backfiring

Then what do you suggest? Just pack up all our military, back out of all deals with Iran, let them control Hormuz, and come on home?.....effectively rolling the dice of several nuclear strikes on U.S. soil within about 5 years. Before our first attack down there, Iran had enough material within 3 weeks of producing 8-10 nuclear devices which they have long stated would be destined for Israel and the U.S.

 

[leeinator]

its Industrial grade slop. Our elderly would be much better informed if they watched Wheel of Fortune.

How old are you? Still watching Bluey?

 

[grinningmule]

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Well, then go ahead and choose which American cities and areas you are willing to sacrifice to nuclear ballistic detonations within a few years...... Atlanta, New Orleans, NYC, LA, SF, Chicago, Miami?

Trump's own DNI put out a statement in May 2025 that Iran did not have an active nuclear weapons program and does not pose a nuclear threat. All 18 US IC agencies made that determination. The DoD has wargamed Iran for decades and they all went disastrously for the US. All of Trump's US advisors advised him of such, but he took the advice of a foreign nation's intelligence service instead.

 

[mstateglfr]

If feels like he's just going to tighten the economic noose around Iran's neck and drag them along until they choke to death.
Then once the midterms are over...

This is interesting because it is the same approach I have heard people say Iran is doing to Trump until the midterms.

So both are pulling the economic levers they can control and try to outlast the other side. Fun.**

 

[HailStout]

Then what do you suggest? Just pack up all our military, back out of all deals with Iran, let them control Hormuz, and come on home?.....effectively rolling the dice of several nuclear strikes on U.S. soil within about 5 years. Before our first attack down there, Iran had enough material within 3 weeks of producing 8-10 nuclear devices which they have long stated would be destined for Israel and the U.S.

I’m not suggesting anything. I take care of people’s lungs for a living. Anybody coming to me for foreign affairs advice needs to get their mental status checked. I just know that regime changes have historically bitten us in the rear end ultimately.

 

[mstateglfr]

No it's nooooottt Mr. DCA Communist.

The elderly and children are way different in age and way too similar in logic and reasoning.

 

[John Deaux VII]

If feels like he's just going to tighten the economic noose around Iran's neck and drag them along until they choke to death. Then once the midterms are over, he will likely unload on them and go for the final Regime change with an exiled government waiting in the wings to step in and take over.....one that is friendly with the U.S. but also aligns with Iranian people in the streets who have long hated their Regime. We'll probably arm them with light weaponry to overthrow their own government and the IRGC and support their revolution with air power.

If he is going to do that, he better get his **** together. He will have from November 3, 2026 to January 3, 2027 to get it done. After that, he will be the one fighting off regime change.

 

[johnson86-1]

This is interesting because it is the same approach I have heard people say Iran is doing to Trump until the midterms.

So both are pulling the economic levers they can control and try to outlast the other side. Fun.**

I think that's accurate. They are holding on for regime change. There's obviuosly a strong anti-israel/anti-jewish sentiment in american politics and Iran could end up with a friend in the white house in a few years and more friendly faces in congress even sooner.

Iran has the advantage in that they have been systematically murdering subjects that would depose the regime and only have to withstand armed rebellion.

We have the advantage in that in the grand scheme of things, this economic pain is closer to inconvenience than true hardship, although certainly the higher gas prices are hard for a lot of people. Just not, "I may starve hard" like the people in Iran may face. But we're pretty soft overall and short sighted, particularly when it comes to voting. Also, regardless of what happens at this point, Iran has made sure that the Hormuz strait will give themselves less and less leverage going forward. Too much money in oil for those countries and companies to leave themselves to the whims of crazies in Iran.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Excellent points.

The national debt has always been one of those weird topics….where so many people are terrified of it, but no one can truly articulate what it would look like if their fears actually came to fruition, or what mechanisms it would take for that to occur.

To me, it’s like the CEO of American Express increasing the debt on his personal American Express card to unfathomable levels to the common man, but still levels that he can easily make the minimum monthly payments and more with his ridiculous salary. And if he ever finds himself in a pinch, he can simply rewrite the rules to say that AmEx CEO’s and board members now have 0% interest on their AmEx cards, or the debt is cancelled, or whatever.

The other weird thing is that the bigger the debt gets, the less risky it becomes, because it becomes more diversified by nature as it gets larger. The only event that could cause the rent to ever become due is a simultaneous run on the U.S. Treasury by hundreds of nations and hundreds of millions of individual bond holders (both private and institutional). The only mechanism for such an event would be the apocalypse.

And no one wants a run on the bond market in developed economies.. As world GDP grows to obscene levels, having a safe place to park trillions of dollars becomes a necessity. Stocks are too risky, real estate comes with taxes and upkeep costs, crypto is too volatile, and just parking cash in a non interest bearing account will get eaten away by inflation not to mention there's generally no deposit insurance for those huge sums. The bond market has to be solid and it will continue to be propped up regardless of global debt levels.

 

[Podgy]

its Industrial grade slop. Our elderly would be much better informed if they watched Wheel of Fortune.

But they wouldn't be able to go on Facebook to complain and start a revolution

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

It also makes you wonder how much of that market growth and inflation is really fueled by credit cards and other debt. If inflation is the result of more dollars chasing fewer goods. What if a large percentage of those dollars are debt dollars?

That's actually a great question, and that metric is tabulated by the Fed. I attached a chart that shows how much debt we have to obtain to generate a dollar worth of GDP, although this does not just mean credit card debt.

But remember that GDP and ''national wealth'' that I referenced earlier in this thread... are not the same thing . Even though it takes more debt to generate a dollar of GDP than it used to, the aggregate value of wealth owned by the U.S. is increasing faster than a 1:1 ratio to the sovereign debt...which is a good thing!

 

[Podgy]

I’m not suggesting anything. I take care of people’s lungs for a living. Anybody coming to me for foreign affairs advice needs to get their mental status checked. I just know that regime changes have historically bitten us in the rear end ultimately.

Perhaps he can get his friend in North Korea to keep Iran in line. Seriously, none of us really know how capable Iran was of developing a nuclear weapon and having it strike the US. Anyway, he already said he destroyed and completely annihilated their nuclear capability. He also said we control the Strait and he said the war was over in April. What should we believe?

 

[Podgy]

If he is going to do that, he better get his **** together. He will have from November 3, 2026 to January 3, 2027 to get it done. After that, he will be the one fighting off regime change.

Great plan. It's bound to work. Do you really think he has a plan? My guess is he'd thought this would easy like Venezuela and ignored the advice of most people around him including his VP. He let Israel decide our foreign policy and now he's stuck with making ever more statements about destroying Iran totally and completely and then pulling back and repeatedly claiming Iran is begging for a deal when they aren't.