SVN biggest challenge is going to be vega. Vega is still going to be on the bigger side of the weight and can actually make SVN pay (re: pin) for an errant mistake.
EARLY 2026-27 lineup projections/discussions
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I think Mendez and Henson are an equal or better challenge than Vega. What did you mean by "Vega is still going to be on the bigger side of the weight"???
I'm surprised gow many people think kids will actually wrestle 5 for 5. There is a small percentage of kids that are good enough to wrestle 5 for 5 and some of those are a stretch. Most kids are going to sit a year to acclimate to college wrestling unless they are elite or attending penn state thats just my opinion. Not to mention, not every kid coming into college wants to hang out five years unless they are making good money.
Even though he’s going up, he’s still going to be one of the biggest guys at the weight.
Unfortunately I think you are right, Vega is going to be a nightmare matchup for Van Ness.
Shane has always appeared to be one of the smaller 149s and is one of the reasons he gets trapped on bottom against some of the longer guys.
I foresee Vega turning Van Ness shots into his own takedowns and riding time, hope I'm wrong.
The positive for SVN against Vega is that he rarely attacks below the knee where Vega is best. SVN does a lot of high doubles and snatch singles where he’s not going to get caught underneath Vega. I think it’s a really interesting matchup. I could see SVN struggling on bottom though
For the most part I agree with this. SVN has struggled at times against guys with length. To beat someone like Vega he’ll need to finish his shot quickly and cleanly and not get tied up by the guy’s legs while on bottom.
He also likes that drag Zain used. Really hard to lock up a counter cradle when your opponent is behind you.
The problem with Vega is: Vega will not attack Shayne unless he's behind. Just like he would not attack Mendez.
I’m going to say something controversial, but I don’t care!!! 149 is getting an influx of talent this year and we need a stone cold, lead pipe at the weight. Kasak needs to drop to 49. There I said it, speaking it into existence.
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I would say more stupid than controversial. SVN has gone 3,3 and 2 . I think he gets it done this year , he can take anyone at that weight . If Kasak could beat him and get to 149 I think that would have happened already.
This. With the exception of Jax and maybe Swiderski, David’s game planning against any better guys is to simply have his guys not shoot. Vega, Robideau, Lockett, Ryder, Merrill all just go fully defensive and look to win on one exchange. It’s like Will Lewan is on the staff. Talk about growing the sport . . . .
Even if Kasak drops effectively I don't believe it can just be assumed Kasak would be the 149 pounder.
Just another heehaw with an opinion, I don't see it. His shot was last season, in what was a really weak weight class. If the weight class plays out like it seems, I don't see him top-3 next year.
I think IF he drops effectively he’d be a SVN styles worst nightmare. As well as a nightmare for the rest of 49
Why would he have dropped any sooner? Plan was to redshirt last year.
I haven't really seen a good data set to disagree with here, about how many people think x or y, but I do think the past few years of 5th / 6th / 7th year competitors shows a good many wrestlers have interest in going for as many national tourneys as they can. Again, tho, no real metrics to share for debate....
But we *can debate what constitutes 'good enough'. If you're good enough to qualify for the 33-man bracket, you're already in the top 3rd of all 79 D1 competitors in your weight. You've gone 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 2-2, why NOT come back for a 5th try?
Some young buck came in & took your spot? Transfer Portal baby...
I'm not feeling the "most kids are going to sit a year" part either... I mean, if "most" means the 34th thru 79th best guys who don't qualify for the tourney, then sure...
But I'll venture to guess this: that most, if not all, of the Top-33 wrestlers at each weight will strongly consider a 5th tourney--somwhere, even if it's not at their starter school.
You seem to be under the mistaken assumption that those who qualify for the NCAA tournament are the best 33 starters in the country. As long as conferences get an autoqualifier, you'll never get the best 33. Add in some schools like those in the ACC that play the open tournament game to pump up records....
edit... and I didn't even get into the abject stupidity that is RPI (that intelligent NCAA sports have replaced)
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Your instinct is correct. Over the last twelve tournaments an average of 18% of wrestlers who qualified had not taken a redshirt. That includes freshmen, sophomores, and juniors who might still take a redshirt.
Among the seniors in the tournament, the ones who took at least one redshirt outnumber the ones who never took a redshirt by an average of 102 to 14. And if you isolate to when the NIL/free transfer period began in earnest, the numbers get more extreme (126 to 14 on average from 2022-2026).
Most wrestlers were already doing 4 in 5 (or 6, or 7). So 5 in 5 does not extend their stay any further. I think we will see plenty attempt all five.
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Either Kasak or SVN would sit out. SVN took 3,3,2..... While Kasak has taken 3,3 at a weight class above.... he would not get horsed by Vega for sure. I know it sounds crazy to think SVN may sit... but it is also crazy to think that Kasak or Duke or Jayden may sit? With Kasaks height... IDK that this is completely out of the realm of possibilities. Not sayin it will happen but if Kasak wanted to give it a try... who knows???
I would be shocked if Kasak either would or could make the cut to 149 any more. We'll see, I guess.
PSU had to forfeit at Arizona State at 184 die to a failed skin check. Zahid probably gets bonus there anyway. But a forfeit sucks!
Cunningham currently is down a weight but it typically doesn't happen.
Bergy & Fucundo
Neither of which turned out so great
Kasak's injury history, specifically concussions does not seem to lend this as the path.
Just ask Zain. You can't recover from concussions AND cut weight. I would bet someone with a history of them is even more likely prone to them.
Off the top of my head, maybe
1.Early years of Rasheed Shakur trying to get in the lineup
2 Alex Facundo trying to get in the lineup
3 Jordan Conaway (up and down) mostly team needs
That was Aaron Brooks' freshman year and his shirt had not yet been pulled. PSU would not have forfeited 184 with 5 for 5 rules.
But that is a good example of a likely forfeit for some team on a travel roster.
Cenzo cutting from 285
Rasheed trying to wrestle 165 was pretty ugly. Conaway moved up to wrestle 133 and the cut back to 125 the year Nico redshirted.
You're right...PSU guys never improve.
Please note...No offense, but I probably won't ever hire you as a motivational speaker.
If my crystal ball is working, the guys who I expect to finish above SVN at 149 are all younger than him and there are FOUR past NCAA champions in the weight class next year. Do other (younger) guys, who have stood atop the podium before, not improve? Of course he'll improve, is his progression ceiling (based on size, age, etc.) the same as his competition? I don't have an opinion on that, but the underlying issue remains: 149 was possibly the weakest weight class in the country last year, it should be one of the toughest this upcoming year. Nothing against SVN - who is fantastic and seems like a great young man, and I hope he goes undefeated next year - but his competition got a heck of a lot tougher. And, again, it's just my opinion - as is your response; got some time before we know who is right.
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Hell...it was just a joke. Just seemed like your initial post was completely discounting SVN and I was countering it with my faith in the kid and our coaches with a little jab.
Sorry...like I said...no offense.
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