This thread is not a place for serious discussion. You guys are way more interested in pushing conspiracy theories and right wing propaganda than having actual discussions, which is completely fine, but I’ll continue making fun of it. I know it’s easier to rehash the Covid debate for the 100th time than to face reality. But for someone who thinks so highly of themselves, you’re painfully ignorant on so many topics.
You’ve strung together quite a few statements on the Iran War that are incorrect, so let’s start at the top. I love writing a good refresher/update.
The war was lost by the end of the 2nd week of action. The initial plan was to assassinate the Supreme Leader with the hope that it would spark an internal uprising that would topple the regime. This uprising never materialized, and the assassination seems to have had the opposite effect, triggering a “rally around the flag” effect that has allowed the IRGC to consolidate even more power. Now, they’re not going anywhere.
Trump’s best bet was always through negotiation, as I said back in February. The deal that was on the table then would have looked like a slightly stronger JCPOA that he could have slapped his name on and walked away with an easy victory. Now, that deal will never be possible again with the military failure of the last 4 months. He should have taken it, but he didn’t, and here we are.
The biggest reason he didn’t take it is that he’s an idiot whose easily swayed and manipulated, but we’ll come back to that. His whole second term has been focused on creating a legacy that will be remembered. It’s why he spends so much time on the monuments, putting his name on things, etc. He’s old, his health is failing, and I think deep down he knows he’s hated, so if he doesn’t build these things now, no one ever will.
This frames why he does what he does and why he started an offensive war in the first place. He wants to be remembered as one of the greats, but he won’t be.
In February, Trump was fresh off the high of kidnapping Maduro. That easy “victory” seems to have given him the impression that he could direct our military to carry out borderline impossible objectives, score easy wins, and never suffer negative blowback from his actions.
Enter Netanyahu, Lindsey Graham, and the pro war wing of the Republican Party. They made the pitch for war to Trump. The same pitch they’ve made to every president since the 90’s, which every other president was smart enough to reject because it would be doomed to failure.
But not our guy Trump. He’s building a lasting legacy. He’ll be the guy that finally takes out Iran. A true idiot with unlimited power at his fingertips.
The problem is an easy win was never going to happen in a war with a country as large as Iran and a regime as entrenched as the IRGC. It was painfully apparent to anyone with basic knowledge of the region that while Iran’s military could never go toe to toe with the US and Israel, they always had closing the Strait of Hormuz in their pocket. With the amount of oil and other energy that passes through it, they could easily devastate the world economy and apply their own version of pressure.
Predictably, they did just that, and the world has dealt with spiked energy prices and outright shortages ever since. Today, the national average for gas sits right around $4 a gallon, which is pretty terrible for our economy. Earlier in the war, though, many analysts predicted much higher prices, $5, $6, $7 a gallon, that never materialized, which could be viewed as a “win” for Trump. He avoided the most catastrophic scenarios, which has allowed the stalemate to drag on now for months.
But why did those higher gas prices never materialize? That should be a pretty important question, after all. There are seemingly a few different reasons that are important when looking toward what will happen next.
First, the Trump administration has continued to draw down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It now sits at its lowest level since it was created. Our country doesn’t have any more reserves, and the longer this goes on, the worse the situation gets. What happens if a hurricane hits Texas and knocks out our refineries this fall? Hopefully, we don’t find out.
The 2nd reason is much more perplexing, though. At the start of the war, China suddenly drastically reduced its oil purchases from the Middle East and tapped its own reserves, reducing worldwide demand significantly. This reduction in consumption is what really led to oil prices staying lower than what analysts had predicted. We still don’t know why China did that, though. It’s very strange.
That, however, couldn’t last forever, and China has started buying oil again, raising demand, which will result in those higher prices if a deal isn’t reached soon, which doesn’t even seem to be on the table.
Meanwhile, Trump’s war and the rising costs and inflation that have come with it are causing catastrophic situations to play out in countries around the world. The most concerning to us, though, is the collapse of the Japanese yen that is currently playing out. Scott Bessent didn’t suddenly see the yen as a great investment when he started purchasing billions of dollars of it last week. These purchases were to keep it from collapsing and taking our economy with it.
Japan owns more US Treasury bonds than any other foreign country. If they cash those in, it will trigger a debt and interest rate crisis here in the US. The gas prices and inflation here in the US are trivial compared to this scenario playing out. And it’s all because of Trump’s idiocy. A self-inflicted wound brought on by his own hubris that will have ramifications long after he’s gone. This is what we should be discussing, but it’s not as fun to talk about as Covid and culture war issues, I suppose.
Your comments about Israel being able to take out Iran are nonsense. Sure, they could nuke them, and so could we, but Russia would then nuke Ukraine. Maybe China would nuke Taiwan. It would trigger a chain of events that would most likely destroy the planet and everyone on it. Here’s a dose of reality for you: Israel cannot indefinitely sustain this scale of regional military operations without substantial U.S. military and diplomatic support. And it becomes more and more likely that U.S. aid and support will come to an end sooner rather than later with each passing day of this conflict.
American blood, resources, and willpower are the only things keeping Israel from experiencing the same kind of destruction that Ukraine has endured.
The reason the USS Abraham Lincoln has now been deployed for over 9 months, with sailors attempting suicide to get off because conditions on board are so bad, is that it’s the only thing keeping Tel Aviv from getting completely bombed out like Kyiv, since Israel is now down to double digits of interceptor missiles in their stockpiles. They can no longer defend themselves without direct American military intervention.
Netanyahu and the Israeli government are poisoning the world against Israel with their genocide in Gaza and warmongering in the region. If you really care about the future of Israel, you should be praying that Netanyahu gets ousted this fall and the state of Israel changes course. Maybe they should give democracy a shot instead of the apartheid-style government they’ve become so accustomed to. They’ll never be able to just kill them all.
The war and everything that comes with it should be the headline of every news show, newspaper, and discussion. But, as a nation, we’re pretending that it’s not a big deal and won’t affect us, but the bill is coming due, and propaganda can only get you so far.
Regardless of what Trump does for the rest of his term, this all ends with a much stronger and bolder Iran, a weakened US, and an alliance with Israel that has never been on shakier ground. That will be his legacy and what he’ll be remembered for. Further escalation of the conflict will only result in a worse outcome for all of us.
