Where do we think Mitchell ranks in the Xfer Portal?
- Thread starter Major_Tom
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Saw someone else posted had he (and everyone else possibly eligible for year 5) entered the transfer portal Milan would have ranked #10 (for reference) and Mitchell would have ranked #4. Not sure what analyst/data collector (Torvic, Miya, etc) stated it though. So I went with 1-5 based on that alone.
I've been thinking 4th but voted 5-10. Puts our class at #2 behind the dirty birds.
Who are the others that would have pushed MM from 1 or 2 to 10? Not doubting you. Just wondering if it was stated in the article/post?
From memory... The article they were referencing had Bidunga and Blackwell already ahead of Milan from the "current" class. Added Mitchell, Jalen Washington, Kohler, Hall, Donovan Dent, Cade Tyson and Malik Brown (in some order) in front of Milan. I'm trying to find the actual article to link. Again, not that I believe Milan is that low, but a lot of metrics sites do because of his low defensive efficiency number lowers his overall grade slightly letting what I would call less skilled players, but more well rounded, sneak ahead by fractions of a point overall. (Like Donovan Dent or Cade Tyson) who are good players, but I don't think are better overall than Milan.
Thanks for the feedback.
What does adding Mitchell do for Justin McBride? I had been hearing that McBride was looking good in practice
Only one I'd have an issue with would be Jalen Washington. Niche add similar to Milan but 48.7% from three holds more weight Washington averaging 8 and 5.
My memory isn't what it used to be on the players lol. But it was referencing Evan Miyakawa's BPR projected portal rankings for 2026-2027 best I can guess. Only one I can find that has Milan sitting 10th. Its about middle of the screen on the left down a little bit on the main page.
EvanMiya CBB Analytics
Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.
evanmiya.com
Acaden Lewis? What am I missing here?
How in the hell is sananda fru better than milanMy memory isn't what it used to be on the players lol. But it was referencing Evan Miyakawa's BPR projected portal rankings for 2026-2027 best I can guess. Only one I can find that has Milan sitting 10th. Its about middle of the screen on the left down a little bit on the main page.
EvanMiya CBB Analytics
Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.
View attachment 1393064
Hard to believe considering the seniors went undrafted and Milan predicted early to mid second round. Seems the NBA thinks he would be right where the rankings have him, 1 or 2.
Definitely not disputing that. Now that I see the source material, it is simply a combination of projected Offensive BPR and projected Defensive BPR to get the overall number. Milan's low Defensive BPR is what brought him down the list.
For those who don't know what the Bayesian Performance Rating is, it's basically an estimate of how many points better or worse a team is than an average Division I opponent when a specific player is on the court. It rewards multi tooled players over pure scorers, or defensive stoppers. I would tend to say it probably skews to advantages for bigs who rebound well, get assists, and blocks as well as score some over say a perimeter player who scores a bunch but doesn't rebound, get many assists, or few if any blocks. Mitchell ranks higher because he stuffs the stat sheet, whereas Milan scores well at a great clip but doesn't rack up assists and boards in bunches.
In BPR Mitchell (and even the surprising Fru and Lewis) rank higher, but Milan is certainly the "better" player. Anyone can create a statistical column based on a set of parameters to make a case for something if they really want to. This one appears to be a very narrow subset (BPR only) used to create the top 10 list of portal transfer players verses an overall system, and seems to be the basis for the discussion where Mitchell was #4 and Milan was #10 in the original post I saw. I enjoy searching down people's "claims" to find out where the actual numbers and stats came from. This one exists, so it wasn't fake surprisingly, and from a reputable source even. I'm just not sure I buy it having any actual weight. However, there is no denying that Mitchell is a solid, well rounded player, and the numbers bear it out. Now excuse me while I throw up a little in my mouth thinking about how a site expects to be taken seriously with Fru ranked in the top 10 portal options... Carry on.
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That still doesn’t explain Acaden Lewis damnit!!
I hope Moreno comes into the season with a chip and plays like a 1 or 2 great, all year.
I feel like this team will be a well oiled machine by March, and Pope has his best year, as a coach.
He’s definitely top 5 without a doubt. I’d rate Hall above him as pure talent (Although you could argue he’s a head case which brings him down quite a bit.) But I can’t think of another transfer I’d pick over him outside of Keyshawn Hall.
To be fair, he did average 12.2 ppg, 3 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.9 stl, and 0.1 blks a game.That still doesn’t explain Acaden Lewis damnit!!
verse Milan stat for stat, 16.9 ppg, 3.1 reb, 1.0 ast, 0.8 stl, and 0.2 blks a game.
If someone REALLY wanted to make an argument for Lewis, they could. And dangit... I'm going to make myself do it aren't I? I'm going to have to make a case for Lewis over Milan... I hate having an analytical brain... You see what I make myself do...
Milan's 16.9 ppg beats Lewis' 12.2 ppg (+4.7), however Lewis' 5.3 ast beats Milan's 1 ast per game. Those 4.3 extra assists per game from Lewis (at worst if they are all 2 pointers) accounts for 8.6 ppg scored by someone else obviously. But that makes Lewis "worth" 20.8 ppg compared to Milan who is worth (16.9 ppg plus 2 ppg from his lone assist) 18.9 ppg. And since they are a wash in rebounds and blocks, when you add in the 1 extra steal a game Lewis averages, he's more "statistically" valuable than Milan on paper. And Miyakawa only looks at data subsets, not actual footage, or emotion, or eye test, just raw numbers.
I need a shower now to wash away the ick from doing that.
And apparently Popes like na I'm good on Hall...but who knows if that's true.
lol. Counterpoint: Milan set records as one of the best three point shooters of all time in one of the top two conferences in the country. You HAD to game plan around him.
A guy that couldn’t shoot, not even FTs, not so much. Stats can be deceiving. Check out his against UCONN and St Johns last year.
I still don’t see it even after your eloquent argument.
Oh I don't see it either. I just had to make a statistical argument that proved Lewis was more valuable than Milan. And if I narrow everything to just seasonal averages in those specific categories and eliminate shooting percentages, free throws, turnovers, and all sorts of other facets in the game, Lewis can have a notch in the win column. lol If we REALLY force it. But I absolutely flat out refuse to do one for Fru. That's where I draw the line.lol. Counterpoint: Milan set records as one of the best three point shooters of all time in one of the top two conferences in the country. You HAD to game plan around him.
A guy that couldn’t shoot, not even FTs, not so much. Stats can be deceiving. Check out his against UCONN and St Johns last year.
I still don’t see it even after your eloquent argument.
Regardless of where our guys would rank in this year's portal, having Moreno come back, picking up Big Chill and now, hopefully Mitchell....
That's 3 top ten (no question how they wanna slice it) players. My eye told me that Milan was graded out lower than he should have been. I have watched a lot of him and Iowa State over his time there, ironically. I was super excited to see him withdraw from the draft and that we made him a priority. I said at the end of the season last year, if there was a chance we could see Big Chill suit up for us, he would light up Rupp Arena ... and we would be stoked. Shockingly, we actually got him!
Now, perhaps we land Mitchell? If you would've said we would get Big Chill and Mitchell and lost out on Stokes, I would've jumped at that possibility.
A side note on Moreno ... if he had entered the portal, he would've surely been considered in the top 3 or 4, presumably behind Bidunga as the most coveted center. I never really thought Bidunga's game was that great, watching him. Regardless how I feel about him (overrated) he is a good player and I am not sayin' he sucks or anything like that. Dirty Birds gotta fine addition. I'm just saying I would 1,000% much rather have Moreno than him, or anyone else, actually.
Moreno's upside is much higher and should he make that leap this year, he is much more valuable than Bidunga ever would have been, in my book.
In other words, Just because a raw freshman recruit or portal player might be highly regarded, and have a higher rating, he might not be the most optimum ingredient once you are done baking the cake, so to speak.
That said, to my eye, Milan is the #1 portal pickup in country. Of everyone, I'd say he is at the top of what I wanted here. Moreno coming back too? I'd say at worst he would've been a #3 rated player, and Mitchell should make the top 10, for me, a second team all SEC guy should be, and ultimately, he would've been #6 on that list for me.
That's 3 top ten (no question how they wanna slice it) players. My eye told me that Milan was graded out lower than he should have been. I have watched a lot of him and Iowa State over his time there, ironically. I was super excited to see him withdraw from the draft and that we made him a priority. I said at the end of the season last year, if there was a chance we could see Big Chill suit up for us, he would light up Rupp Arena ... and we would be stoked. Shockingly, we actually got him!
Now, perhaps we land Mitchell? If you would've said we would get Big Chill and Mitchell and lost out on Stokes, I would've jumped at that possibility.
A side note on Moreno ... if he had entered the portal, he would've surely been considered in the top 3 or 4, presumably behind Bidunga as the most coveted center. I never really thought Bidunga's game was that great, watching him. Regardless how I feel about him (overrated) he is a good player and I am not sayin' he sucks or anything like that. Dirty Birds gotta fine addition. I'm just saying I would 1,000% much rather have Moreno than him, or anyone else, actually.
Moreno's upside is much higher and should he make that leap this year, he is much more valuable than Bidunga ever would have been, in my book.
In other words, Just because a raw freshman recruit or portal player might be highly regarded, and have a higher rating, he might not be the most optimum ingredient once you are done baking the cake, so to speak.
That said, to my eye, Milan is the #1 portal pickup in country. Of everyone, I'd say he is at the top of what I wanted here. Moreno coming back too? I'd say at worst he would've been a #3 rated player, and Mitchell should make the top 10, for me, a second team all SEC guy should be, and ultimately, he would've been #6 on that list for me.
if you look at on3's player portal rankings they have: bidunga / blackwell / milan / harris / diop / yessoufoo / haggerty / murauskas / byrd / punch
moreno would be 5 and mitchell would be 6 or 7.
effectively 3 top 10 portal players with another 2 (wilkins/diallo) in the top 40.
its about as good as a roster build that fits together and with mark's preferred style of play as you can hope for.
moreno would probably be 5 after harris and before diop. mitchell would probably be before yessoufoo.
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Coach Pope kinda' backed into some luck this year. I mean, yeah, he had foresight to hold onto one open roster slot. Otherwise, lost out on landing guys as a primary target, lost on the #1 freshman recruit, but Milan was a huge development, and now Mitchell too, potentially. Wow. Yeah he did kinda' back into some luck. Crazy world ! We'll take all the luck we can get.
Big Chill is what I've been calling MomCHILLovic for awhile now. He's so smooth and clutch too ... calm shooter, never gets rushed. Watching him the last 2 years .... I've just come to call him that. Big Chill is really gonna make a lot of Kentucky people happy this year. Going to light it up in Rupp, and the anticipation is off the charts for me.
Big Chill is what I've been calling MomCHILLovic for awhile now. He's so smooth and clutch too ... calm shooter, never gets rushed. Watching him the last 2 years .... I've just come to call him that. Big Chill is really gonna make a lot of Kentucky people happy this year. Going to light it up in Rupp, and the anticipation is off the charts for me.
Mitchell is a significantly better player. Mitchell has the potential to be our best player, while McBride may not even start.
Sorry. Don’t think that name will stick but good luck. Lol. Looking forward to seeing him this year.
Let’s him play 15-20 a game which is perfect for him imho.
He also had some bad luck with injuries. Bottom line, he has had a heck of a recruiting class already and it could be amazing if we add Mitchell. That would make the 128,962 Fire Pope because he can't recruit threads seem....premature....
It sounds like he is ours if eligible. Top 5 Portal player
Not worried. I don’t know anything about the guy.
Seems like a good get. But it won’t matter. We do not have a player problem and haven’t had a player problem. We have a coaching problem.
That has not been addressed. On top of no preparation, no identity on offense or defense, no conditioning and clueless subbing, Popes teams just don’t play hard and many times just quit completely.
Players can’t consistently overcome no leadership.
Bayesian Performance Rating is just another Statistical Plus-Minus model developed for college basketball, similar to Box Plus-Minus (BPM), Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (BPM), Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM), Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), and DARKO that exist for NBA. Of those, it's probably most similar to DARKO in that it's designed to be predictive instead of strictly retrospective. In other words, it's the type of model that modern NBA teams use to evaluate players. It's the single best metric we have for individual player impact prediction in college basketball. That's because it was designed by a PhD statistician and not some random cbb fan with a Substack.
BPR is regressed primarily on play-by-play data like all good plus-minus models, although it also draws on other covariates such as box score info, past performance, and some other things. The estimate is the number of points per 100 possessions that a player is projected to add over an average D1 player while playing both with and against average D1 teammates and opponents, respectively (i.e., context neutral). It's an all-encompassing metric similar to WAR in baseball, since the currency for basketball production is points created (saved defensively), just like WAR is built around runs created (saved defensively).
BPR is regressed primarily on play-by-play data like all good plus-minus models, although it also draws on other covariates such as box score info, past performance, and some other things. The estimate is the number of points per 100 possessions that a player is projected to add over an average D1 player while playing both with and against average D1 teammates and opponents, respectively (i.e., context neutral). It's an all-encompassing metric similar to WAR in baseball, since the currency for basketball production is points created (saved defensively), just like WAR is built around runs created (saved defensively).
Please remember that these are statistical estimates, which means that (1) they won't be perfect predictions and (2) they will necessarily have some degree of prediction error. Unfortunately, Miyakawa doesn't typically provide the error estimates to my knowledge. For example, a player predicted to have a 7.0 BPR in 2027 might have a 95% prediction interval of 4.0 BPR to 11.0 BPR for all we know.
Regarding Acaden Lewis specifically, he had a pretty decent season by both BPR (EvanMiya's metric) and BPM (Sports-Reference's metric). It was 5.13 BPR and 5.5 BPM, although they disagreed on the magnitude of his offensive and defensive splits. Of all the Plus-Minus metrics, Box Plus-Minus (BPM) is generally considered to be the worst and least reliable since it doesn't incorporate play-by-play data, so I'd go with BPR when in doubt. The BPR increase that EvanMiya is projecting for 2027 has to be a freshman -> sophomore leap effect.
Regarding Acaden Lewis specifically, he had a pretty decent season by both BPR (EvanMiya's metric) and BPM (Sports-Reference's metric). It was 5.13 BPR and 5.5 BPM, although they disagreed on the magnitude of his offensive and defensive splits. Of all the Plus-Minus metrics, Box Plus-Minus (BPM) is generally considered to be the worst and least reliable since it doesn't incorporate play-by-play data, so I'd go with BPR when in doubt. The BPR increase that EvanMiya is projecting for 2027 has to be a freshman -> sophomore leap effect.
Right, but Lewis is a pg, Milan isn't.
If we're going to give Lewis credit for assists, which means other players scored off his action, then we have to give Milan credit for stretching the floor just by being on the court, right?
How many easy layups and open shots did Iowa State get, just because Milan was out on the perimeter? My guess would be a lot more than the 4 assists Lewis averaged per game.
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