The economy

[fatpiggy]

On fire? Gdp was 1.2 last qtr. Employment had negative job growth in July.

By those standards bidens gdp #s and employment reports were absolutely super-hot comparatively.

It's the economy,stupid still holds water.
We will see in November.

Yes we will see in November. I predict it now. You will say Warsh is manipulating markets when he cuts rates

 

[fatpiggy]

En fuego

 

[fatpiggy]

With Trumps inflation we get record corporate profits and growth.

What did we get for Democrat inflation? DEI? What else?

 

[Palmerhawk]

I think concensus among the board Governors right now is to sit tight.
Data- driven,tho.
Dual mandate,ya know?

 

[fatpiggy]

But prescription drug price are going down 5,000 %

 

[Palmerhawk]

With Trumps inflation we get record corporate profits and growth.

What did we get for Democrat inflation? DEI? What else?

Contrary to Romney's assertion that corporations are people, the people( 60% that do not hold stocks) are not feeling those corporations high earnings..they are victims of it

You're fine, I'm fine, but the paycheck to paycheck folks are struggling. Verdict in November.

 

[fatpiggy]

Contrary to Romney's assertion that corporations are people, the people( 60% that do not hold stocks) are not feeling those corporations high earnings..they are victims of it

You're fine, I'm fine, but the paycheck to paycheck folks are struggling. Verdict in November.

The pay check to paycheck people get crushed by inflation. They are the most harmed by inflation

Inflation got to 9% under Democrat admin. They lost the last election, in a landslide on the issue. Trump inflation peaked at less than 4% and will be lower in November.

Gas is lower, prescription drug prices are lower, housing costs are decelerating faster than they ever did under democrat admin.

Economy is a losing issue for Dems as of right now, even on the low income side.

Corporate profits win and the low income consumer wins. Thats what capitalism does.

 

[bdgan]

Common ground? Good.
Can we agree that tariffs are taxes?
Some are hitting businesses( which are being refunded,some hitting consumers which will not be refunded.
Net result: tax on consumer that is re- distributed
To corporations, not to govt revenue.
Inflationary...keeping interest expense rising on govt debt.

War in Iran costs usa govt in defense expense.
Costs consumer in gas and transport expense.
Again, inflationary.

If trump had not enacted these 2 policies, interest rates would be lower and with hyperscaler investment in AI, america probably would be experiencing a Clinton era dot com boom right now

As for culture issues, being center left means being pro- choice, acceptance of orientation and equal rights to all Americans.

Tariffs are taxes on importers. They get to decide how much to pass on to consumers. Many importers will buy from low tariffed companies and some will source products domestically. In the meantime the government receives much needed revenue. I think tariffs can be good. It depends on how they're implemented. The court ruling that required refunds might have been legal but it was horrible for the country because there was no way to get than money back to consumers.

I was strongly against the war from the beginning because I don't think the U.S. can afford to keep defending the world. It was really stupid politically. If Trump thought it was the right thing to do he should have waited until after the elections. The only disagreement I have with dems on this is that I think Iran is definitely a threat. I don't believe things were all solved with the JCPOA. I think Iran used money to conduct proxy wars and continue to research nuclear weapon development. They just did it at sites that inspectors didn't visit. I think the threat was to other mid east regions who should be standing up for themselves.

Same with Ukraine war. Dems support that because it started under Biden. They would be against it if it started under Trump.

My question is what should we do at this point. Dems would like us to leave Iran because they could call Trump a failure. That might be good politics but I don't think it would be good for the country.

 

[bdgan]

Tariffs are a losing argument for Dems.

You are essentially saying that tariffs cause inflation.


Ok. Inflation got up to 9% under Biden. Dems ran inflation much hotter for longer than needed.


The last election was on the economy and inflation and Dems lost solidly. They lost the electoral college, the popular vote, and all seven swing states.

Tariffs and inflation are losing platforms for the Dems

There's no question that tariffs cause prices on some goods to increase. It's just not as much as most dems say it is. The biggest affordability issues are health insurance, housing, and groceries. Those things are only minimally impacted by tariffs because they are produced domestically. All you have to do is look at the data.

Inflation:
January 2025 3.0%
March 2025 2.4%
June 2025 2.7%
September 2025 3.0%
December 2025 2.7%

 

[jimneffer]

Tariffs are taxes on importers. They get to decide how much to pass on to consumers. Many importers will buy from low tariffed companies and some will source products domestically. In the meantime the government receives much needed revenue. I think tariffs can be good. It depends on how they're implemented. The court ruling that required refunds might have been legal but it was horrible for the country because there was no way to get than money back to consumers.

I was strongly against the war from the beginning because I don't think the U.S. can afford to keep defending the world. It was really stupid politically. If Trump thought it was the right thing to do he should have waited until after the elections. The only disagreement I have with dems on this is that I think Iran is definitely a threat. I don't believe things were all solved with the JCPOA. I think Iran used money to conduct proxy wars and continue to research nuclear weapon development. They just did it at sites that inspectors didn't visit. I think the threat was to other mid east regions who should be standing up for themselves.

Same with Ukraine war. Dems support that because it started under Biden. They would be against it if it started under Trump.

My question is what should we do at this point. Dems would like us to leave Iran because they could call Trump a failure. That might be good politics but I don't think it would be good for the country.

i don't understand this need to connect ukraine and iran

ukraine - AN ALLY THAT WAS INVADED
iran - AN ADVERSARY WE DECIDED/WERE TALKED INTO BY ISRAEL TO ATTACK

these are not the same thing. feeling differently about them doesn't depend on which president made that decision. that's just a cop out by trump supporters looking for a way to soften the horrific decision made by him (ok...so maybe i understand it...but it's clearly bullsh*t)

 

[DFSNOLE_rivals]

The economy is on FIRE right now.

Most Dems just dont want to see it.

Another inline to below expectations print on PPI just now.

Rate cut before the end of the year will continue to help housing inflation come down.

Housing inflation is 0% yoy btw.

You need to leave your echo chamber from time to time.

President Trump Approval - Economy​

Trump Approval on Issues: Economy | Foreign Policy | Immigration | Inflation | Crime | Iran | Russia/Ukraine | Israel/Hamas

pollster	date	sample	Approve	Disapprove	spread
RCP Average	7/8 - 8/3	—	36.6	61.2	Spread-24.6
Economist/YouGov	7/31 - 8/3	1473 RV	33	65	Spread-32
Reuters/Ipsos	7/29 - 8/3	3542 RV	32	64	Spread-32
Big Data Poll	7/26 - 7/29	2617 LV	42	56	Spread-14
Marquette	7/22 - 7/29	572 LV	36	64	Spread-28
CNN	7/23 - 7/27	RV	30	70	Spread-40
Quinnipiac	7/23 - 7/27	963 RV	34	62	Spread-28
Morning Consult	7/24 - 7/26	2200 RV	42	50	Spread-8
CBS News	7/22 - 7/24	2193 A	35	65	Spread-30
FOX News	7/17 - 7/20	1003 RV	33	67	Spread-34
RMG Research*	7/13 - 7/14	1000 RV	40	56	Spread-16
Harvard-Harris	7/11 - 7/12	1776 RV	40	60	Spread-20
CNBC	7/8 - 7/12	1000 RV	38	60	Spread-22
2Way/HarrisX	7/9 - 7/10	787 LV	41	57	Spread-16

 

[bdgan]

The economy is on FIRE right now.

Most Dems just dont want to see it.

Another inline to below expectations print on PPI just now.

Rate cut before the end of the year will continue to help housing inflation come down.

Housing inflation is 0% yoy btw.

The economy isn't on fire. Job growth has slowed and war related inflation is a problem. Affordability has been a problem since April 2021.

The economy also isn't nearly as bad as democrats say it is. The unemployment rate is only 4.1% and total payroll employment is at record levels. There's also a lot of new investment in the USA. I'd call it a pretty good economy but by no means on fire.

One of the big problems with housing was created by the government/Fed. People aren't selling homes they purchased in ~2020 because they don't want to give up their 2.5% mortgage. I don't think there's a magical fix. It's just going to take time to work it's way out of the system.

 

[bdgan]

Contrary to Romney's assertion that corporations are people, the people( 60% that do not hold stocks) are not feeling those corporations high earnings..they are victims of it

You're fine, I'm fine, but the paycheck to paycheck folks are struggling. Verdict in November.

People have been living paycheck to paycheck for decades.

• 2019 53%
• 2021 52%
• 2023 61%
• 2024 65%
• May 2026 62%

Also those who think they are not benefitting from the stock market are either wrong or they are victims of their own life choices. Do you really think people would be better off if corporate profits materially declined? That would put pressure on wages and lead to big job losses. Also most people have an opportunity to invest in the stock market. They just choose not to do it because they are fearful, ignorant, or because they aren't willing to make sacrifices.

BTW I'm NOT discounting the affordability issue.

 

[bdgan]

i don't understand this need to connect ukraine and iran

ukraine - AN ALLY THAT WAS INVADED
iran - AN ADVERSARY WE DECIDED/WERE TALKED INTO BY ISRAEL TO ATTACK

these are not the same thing. feeling differently about them doesn't depend on which president made that decision. that's just a cop out by trump supporters looking for a way to soften the horrific decision made by him (ok...so maybe i understand it...but it's clearly bullsh*t)

Both cost a lot of money
Ukraine isn't a NATO ally

 

[bdgan]

You need to leave your echo chamber from time to time.

President Trump Approval - Economy​

Trump Approval on Issues: Economy | Foreign Policy | Immigration | Inflation | Crime | Iran | Russia/Ukraine | Israel/Hamas

pollster	date	sample	Approve	Disapprove	spread
RCP Average	7/8 - 8/3	—	36.6	61.2	Spread-24.6
Economist/YouGov	7/31 - 8/3	1473 RV	33	65	Spread-32
Reuters/Ipsos	7/29 - 8/3	3542 RV	32	64	Spread-32
Big Data Poll	7/26 - 7/29	2617 LV	42	56	Spread-14
Marquette	7/22 - 7/29	572 LV	36	64	Spread-28
CNN	7/23 - 7/27	RV	30	70	Spread-40
Quinnipiac	7/23 - 7/27	963 RV	34	62	Spread-28
Morning Consult	7/24 - 7/26	2200 RV	42	50	Spread-8
CBS News	7/22 - 7/24	2193 A	35	65	Spread-30
FOX News	7/17 - 7/20	1003 RV	33	67	Spread-34
RMG Research*	7/13 - 7/14	1000 RV	40	56	Spread-16
Harvard-Harris	7/11 - 7/12	1776 RV	40	60	Spread-20
CNBC	7/8 - 7/12	1000 RV	38	60	Spread-22
2Way/HarrisX	7/9 - 7/10	787 LV	41	57	Spread-16

All true but to be fair the incumbent always takes the blame. Would you like to see approval ratings for Jeffries & Schumer?

 

[fatpiggy]

The economy isn't on fire. Job growth has slowed and war related inflation is a problem. Affordability has been a problem since April 2021.

The economy also isn't nearly as bad as democrats say it is. The unemployment rate is only 4.1% and total payroll employment is at record levels. There's also a lot of new investment in the USA. I'd call it a pretty good economy but by no means on fire.

One of the big problems with housing was created by the government/Fed. People aren't selling homes they purchased in ~2020 because they don't want to give up their 2.5% mortgage. I don't think there's a magical fix. It's just going to take time to work it's way out of the system.

It’s on fire. Yall just don’t notice it yet.

Growth like you have never seen is coming.

Record R&d, and our best companies don’t miss.

 

[fatpiggy]

It’s on fire. Yall just don’t notice it yet.

Growth like you have never seen is coming.

Record R&d, and our best companies don’t miss.

Unemployment rate at 4.1%.

While a little room for improvement, I’m pretty sure that’s considered full employment

 

[DFSNOLE_rivals]

All true but to be fair the incumbent always takes the blame. Would you like to see approval ratings for Jeffries & Schumer?

If you have approval numbers for their handling of the economy specifically, then yes, I would love to see those.

 

[nytigerfan]

Tariffs are taxes on importers. They get to decide how much to pass on to consumers. Many importers will buy from low tariffed companies and some will source products domestically. In the meantime the government receives much needed revenue. I think tariffs can be good. It depends on how they're implemented. The court ruling that required refunds might have been legal but it was horrible for the country because there was no way to get than money back to consumers.

I was strongly against the war from the beginning because I don't think the U.S. can afford to keep defending the world. It was really stupid politically. If Trump thought it was the right thing to do he should have waited until after the elections. The only disagreement I have with dems on this is that I think Iran is definitely a threat. I don't believe things were all solved with the JCPOA. I think Iran used money to conduct proxy wars and continue to research nuclear weapon development. They just did it at sites that inspectors didn't visit. I think the threat was to other mid east regions who should be standing up for themselves.

Same with Ukraine war. Dems support that because it started under Biden. They would be against it if it started under Trump.

My question is what should we do at this point. Dems would like us to leave Iran because they could call Trump a failure. That might be good politics but I don't think it would be good for the country.

Trump needs to leave iran bc we are facing a global energy and starvation crisis as long as those straits remain closed. he has even said this. He failed, massively, and the best thing he can do right now would be to walk away and declare a victory. the right wing media will back him up. All the same. people who said we cannot let them have nukes will then say them having nukes is no big deal.

I would have supported trump defending Ukraine.

 

[nytigerfan]

It’s on fire. Yall just don’t notice it yet.

Growth like you have never seen is coming.

Record R&d, and our best companies don’t miss.

in about two weeks?

 

[jimneffer]

in about two weeks?

any day now

 

[bdgan]

If you have approval numbers for their handling of the economy specifically, then yes, I would love to see those.

Schumer's overall approval rating is 24.7%. Jeffries is 28%. I don't know just on the economy but it can't be good.

I'm not sure what any party can do to improve affordability. If I was president I would create bipartisan panels (like Simpson-Bowles) to come up with recommendations on things like housing and healthcare even though there aren't any magic answers. At least they could identify the cost drivers and make some recommendations. Same with SS & Medicare.

I think Trump really screwed up with the war but otherwise he was doing OK. I'm not aware of any solutions from the dems except to tax the rich. I don't know how that makes housing and healthcare any more affordable.

 

[baltimorened]

trump has depleted our SPR to levels not seen since the early 1980s. He is doing this to lower the price of gas, lower inflation, etc., right before an election.

I miss 2022 tigergrowls. In 2022 you would’ve called such actions treasonous. But now you are oddly quiet.

maybe he discovered that Biden was right in 2022. Trump is just stealing the strategy...imitation is the sincerest form of flattery....

 

[nytigerfan]

maybe he discovered that Biden was right in 2022. Trump is just stealing the strategy...imitation is the sincerest form of flattery....

thanks for making my point. When Biden did it in 2022, dipshits like Tigergrowls called it treasonous.

 

[baltimorened]

Both cost a lot of money
Ukraine isn't a NATO ally

both are political...we backed Ukraine, at least in part, to hurt Russia's military capabilities..I think most would agree that has been a success...in that regard.

In Iran, we did that, again at least in part, to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Trump says that has been accomplished..I'm not so sure yet...

 

[baltimorened]

Unemployment rate at 4.1%.

While a little room for improvement, I’m pretty sure that’s considered full employment

I'm not sure the unemployment rates reflects number of jobs, just people out of the workforce...According to one economist, can't remember who, the unemployment rates reflects the number of undocumented being removed from the workforce, and boomers retiring. Dont' know how accurate that is, but on the surface, seems logical

 

[baltimorened]

thanks for making my point. When Biden did it in 2022, dipshits like Tigergrowls called it treasonous.

I'm here to help!

 

[bdgan]

maybe he discovered that Biden was right in 2022. Trump is just stealing the strategy...imitation is the sincerest form of flattery....

Neither party is willing to replenish that strategic oil reserves because it would push oil prices higher. Just like they won't fix SS & Medicare.

 

[Rifler]

Contrary to Romney's assertion that corporations are people, the people( 60% that do not hold stocks) are not feeling those corporations high earnings..they are victims of it.

Since the mid 80's, anyone not in the market has been essentially guaranteed to lose economic ground,... The primary way to counter millions of US manufacturing jobs being packed up and shipped overseas has been to invest in the companies making profits with those relocated jobs,.. If you're not at the party, you don't get to hear the music.

 

[bdgan]

I'm not sure the unemployment rates reflects number of jobs, just people out of the workforce...According to one economist, can't remember who, the unemployment rates reflects the number of undocumented being removed from the workforce, and boomers retiring. Dont' know how accurate that is, but on the surface, seems logical

We still have 7 million job openings Total nonfarm payroll employment pre covid was 152 million. Today it's about 159 million.

I know a lot of jobs don't pay well enough to support a family. A lot of dems hate the $7.25 Federal minimum wage but that's only 1% of the population. Adjusting for inflation, the federal minimum wage was highest in 1968: $1.60 an hour which was equivalent to $14.42 in 2024. I don't know anybody who is working for less than that but I guess there are some in rural areas.

 

[An Iowa fan]

in about two weeks?

fat piggy is correct. Starting at the end of November sometime equities will start an explosion and next year will be fantastic.

I still think we have a pullback first into the end of November. Just stay long as hell.

Edit: maybe the pullback is just a resting point and we go sideways.

 

[bdgan]

Since the mid 80's, anyone not in the market has been essentially guaranteed to lose economic ground,... The primary way to counter millions of US manufacturing jobs being packed up and shipped overseas has been to invest in the companies making profits with those relocated jobs,.. If you're not at the party, you don't get to hear the music.

That's why the gap between the haves and have nots has widened. It's bizarre that people want a $25/hr minimum wage but that just causes higher prices/inflation and chases even more jobs offshore.

It doesn't help that today's young people don't want to work in factories or most other dirty jobs that are still here.

 

[Rifler]

A lot of dems hate the $7.25 Federal minimum wage but that's only 1% of the population.

And people need to remember that that 1% is not a stagnant group of people who have been forever relegated to working their entire life at minimum wage,.. It's primarily entry level workers,.. Essentially what most of us were when we were just getting started,.. I don't know about anyone else but with my first job as a teenager, I was probably overpaid at minimum wage.

 

[fatpiggy]

fat piggy is correct. Starting at the end of November sometime equities will start an explosion and next year will be fantastic.

I still think we have a pullback first into the end of November. Just stay long as hell.

Edit: maybe the pullback is just a resting point and we go sideways.

Never in a straight line. Volatility will remain above historical norms under the Trump admin.

I do agree the one weakness is oil above $80.

That’s my only hedge.
Long USO calls as a hedge on the portfolio.

 

[fskillet]

Both cost a lot of money
Ukraine isn't a NATO ally

Israel isn’t a NATO ally, either

 

[bdgan]

With Trumps inflation we get record corporate profits and growth.

Sure piggy, 3% inflation will yield 32% more profit. SMH

 

[DFSNOLE_rivals]

Schumer's overall approval rating is 24.7%. Jeffries is 28%. I don't know just on the economy but it can't be good.

I'm not sure what any party can do to improve affordability. If I was president I would create bipartisan panels (like Simpson-Bowles) to come up with recommendations on things like housing and healthcare even though there aren't any magic answers. At least they could identify the cost drivers and make some recommendations. Same with SS & Medicare.

I think Trump really screwed up with the war but otherwise he was doing OK. I'm not aware of any solutions from the dems except to tax the rich. I don't know how that makes housing and healthcare any more affordable.

My post was in response to Piggy's assertion that the economy is on fire and at democrats should not run on it. That is not true in any way shape or form. The polls from Real Clear Politics show that Americans are not satisfied to the job Trump is doing with the economy. He's at the top of the heap so he gets the blame.