OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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When I saw it under $1 it was very tempting but I knew nothing about the company. Figured the injection of $$$ would push the stock higher but dilution was my concern.
What crypto account? LOL! Seriously, not using COIN anymore and moved that money to HOOD a while ago. That account is now mostly equity option plays, including IBIT leaps. I'm down to a relatively modest amount of BTC on Fidelity (which is obviously below ATHs) but my overall Fidelity amount is ATH.Not counting the crypto account I see
MSFT up 30% in a month as narrative of MSFT as a helpless software company reverses once again. PE back up to 27ish. Are Anthropic and ChapGPT destined to be the real losers in the AI arms race? We should certainly find out by the time Social Security runs out of the ability to fully fund current projected benefit levels…which is 2032-ish.
Anthropic started the year at $10B ARR. They said they’d be at $100B at the end of the year and everyone said they were crazy. Seven months in and they’re already at $80B. I don’t see them or OpenAI becoming losers.
As much as I hate co-pilot, MSFT is jamming it down every enterprise customer’s throat and now layering on specialty apps/agents like Harvey. It’s sticky as hell. Google still has a fairly strong chokehold on the consumer - free is pretty damn good for everyday stuff. Anthropic and OpenAI had a mile head start and that lead is closing really, really fast. You also have companies like GM creating their own proprietary models for its cars. Then there’s China. It’s going to get interesting.
I hated Copilot for a long time but a few months ago MSFT launched a new version named Researcher. It’s awesome. It quickly became the gold standard agent at work. It can use any LLM including Claude Opus and the Claude Code modular for Excel and data analytics. Very happy with it!
MSFT is my biggest single holding. How high do you see this going g over the next 12-18 months?
Copilot is getting better…it’s all connected and integrated with all things in our company so easier to connect to data sources
I prefer Gemini for personal as you don’t have any limits thanks to their own data center and I believe that will be one of the winners in all this
They are starting to spend some of that cash:
www.cnbc.com
Abel puts a big chunk of Berkshire's cash to work
In his second quarter as the new CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel did some serious spending, including $4.5 billion on buybacks.
www.cnbc.com
Good question! Sentiment seems to change with every quarterly report. June, 2025 and June, 2026 quarter ends led to huge stock price gains while the sentiment after the three quarters in between ranged from “meh” to “MSFT is just a big dumb old software company.”
Seems as though the robust cloud compute revenue increase they just posted justifies the massive cap-ex spend they are currently doing and will be doing through at least 2028…so maybe the next big stock price increase happens in 2028. After this big runup I’m not hopeful for anything but maybe a gradual climb back up the ATH of $560/sh in the next 12 months.
The RUT continues it's strong run.
Up 22% for the year, besting the 3 majors.
And 40% over the last 12 months. Also best among majors. Nasdaq is 2nd at 30%. I'm neck and neck with the S&P at 24.37 vs 24.36.
Though this doesn't include Friday which was a big day for me. So I'll need to check again tomorrow.
Up 22% for the year, besting the 3 majors.
And 40% over the last 12 months. Also best among majors. Nasdaq is 2nd at 30%. I'm neck and neck with the S&P at 24.37 vs 24.36.
Though this doesn't include Friday which was a big day for me. So I'll need to check again tomorrow.
$30b of Rev's. Which given current profit margins, would equate to $10B in operating income.
He’s not using the current margin. He’s estimating constellation costs come down as the network grows. To clarify, his quote was “Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line, with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be $30 billion in free cash flow within the year.”
Selling CRWD during one of the mini-meltdowns a few months back was probably my worst trade ever. That one is on me.
However, I’m still trying to figure out how one over-leveraged hedge fund crashes the market, crushes retail traders among others, yet nobody is talking about it anymore. That day basically F’d my trading account YTD. I had positions that I felt comfortable DCA’ing in for weeks that crashed and either triggered stop losses or I sold trying to stick to my loss rules = only to watch them now climb 40% in a week. Huge reversal. And it wasn’t Trump…no Iran…no COVID or Tariffs…it was one hedge fund. I don’t get it…
I sold early in the meltdown and bought back near those lows
My only bad on that is i probably bought a lot less the 2nd then i did the first.
Looks like you have it figured out. Not sure what else you are looking for. Overleveraged wunderkind hedge fund crashed the market. Didn’t know how to hedge his risk, because he was too smart to be wrong. Found a soft landing for most of the holdings, if not market would have really been fukked.
I’m just venting more than anything else because it’s crazy to me that one over-leveraged fund crashes the market for a day…F’ing a lot of retail traders (and investors)…Citadel steps in and makes almost $2B…while Wall Street insiders including Goldman and financial reports knew earlier in the week of the deteriorating fund…yet it’s already old news. I’m fairly diversified in my trading account but that one day triggered losses that were a serious set back for my 2026 returns. With all the **** Elizabeth Warren and other usual suspects freak out about - this is a nothing-burger?! Anyway I’ll get over it…
Did one over-leveraged fund crash the market or did the market crash to f the over-leveraged fund?
Didn’t really “crash” the market. Took down a small sector. Which then immediately rebounded. Sorry you got whip sawed. But that’s the difference in investing and gambling.
Citadel offered a soft landing risked their capital to save the market. They’re not the villain in this case.
As I said earlier can’t report on rumors. Classic buy the rumor sell the news.
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Yeah I got schooled big time especially when news threads were saying there could be others out there…I think I’m done with stop-losses as I either don’t know how to use them or they just don’t work anymore because of the volatility in anything they touches AI.
On a different note - anyone notice that if you do a Google search and click a Reddit result you are quickly directed to the Reddit app or it won’t let you continue reading. I know this was talked about on the Reddit earnings call but can’t tell if this is now the fix or just another problem.
10x price to rev's with 20%ish growth.
Morgan Stanley put an overweight on it in June.
"SAIL laid out a vision for why their identity platform gives them a path towards reacceleration, with new FY29 targets meaningfully higher than Street. Identity market is a linchpin towards AI adoption, leaving us OW on secular exposure, but execution/shareholder cleanup needed to see PT achieved."
Originally went public in 2017, but was taken private in 2022, before going public again in 2025.
Chart showing signs of life. $20 looks like a hurdle it needs to clear.
Not that it means anything, but it is part of Schwab's cyber investing themes bucket.
I can’t figure out the AI or digital marketing space. Had Magnite on my buy list but never pulled the trigger and it’s doubled since that time. Zeta fooled me once already with that accounting hiccup so hard to jump back in.
My daughter had a small ONON position in her Fidelity account. I was tempted to sell it a few weeks ago when I saw a pair of Sketchers that almost fooled me as OnClouds. I did sell it for her this morning as I think the sneaker space is crowded.
CRWV popping on earnings beat and raise.
Im still slightly in the red
Im still slightly in the red
Same on Zeta. i have too many names already. No need to go back to a name that burnt me.
Been trimming last week and buying a few biotechs. My cash level in trading account is highest in years. considering adding some ETFs in my trading account as I’m shocked at the performance of some YTD. My IRA is all ETFs and I’m outperforming my stocks.
AI/Chip/Data Center world has me a bit cautious. Biggest issue is I don’t see how Anthropic and OpenAI can win if everyone starts launching open weight models like Meta and NVDA did or closed like GM for its cars. The fact that the IPOs were delayed and nobody is really talking about it is odd. Second biggest issue is China - they’ve been awfully quiet. All they need to do is start pushing cheap chips and models to really turn things upside down. No way China is gonna let the US own the future of AI.
NVDA has the incentive in the world to push Open Weight models. That requires companies to need GPUs to support that whether they host themselves or go to Cloud providers for compute. That is all $$$ in their pocket.
Meta has to do something to catch up in the arms race of AI. They give away their models they can better compete against OpenAI & Anthropic. Thing is nothing is for free. You are the product. They can use consumers to fix its bugs, improve it, and then also train their models for use within Facebook, Insta, WhatsApp, etc.
My take is Anthropic and OpenAI face an uphill battle. Both have high costs due to not owning their own data centers and passing those premium costs to others. Companies like Google and MSFT stand to gain because compute is so expensive and they own all the infrastructure. Both of them invested in the AI companies respectively and all that investment was to keep them in their infrastructure.
SpaceX’s Cursor acquisition is going to end up being massive if they are able to turn out products like this. The advantage they have in being vertically integrated is remarkable.
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