UK basketball headed towards worst decade in its history

[Ukdaddy98]

We do need to end one of these droughts:

- Last SEC regular season title: 2020
- Last SECT title: 2018
- Last NCAAT 1 seed: 2015
- Last FF: 2015
- Last NCAAT title: 2012

Last E8 was back in 2019, too.

The program is no longer elite as evidenced by these numbers alone. We all want it to turn around. Whether that can happen with Pope at the helm is, at minimum, a massive question mark.

I know this downward trend was on Cal without a doubt, but that blame game can only last so long.

Thankfully, we still have the next few years to change the narrative, and I’m sure hoping we do!!!

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

The program is no longer elite as evidenced by these numbers alone. We all want it to turn around. Whether that can happen with Pope at the helm is, at minimum, a massive question mark.

I know this downward trend was on Cal without a doubt, but that blame game can only last so long.

Thankfully, we still have the next few years to change the narrative, and I’m sure hoping we do!!!

The results of the last few years are disappointing to all of us but they are not totally unprecedented in our long history with the exception of the '21 disaster. We have fallen well short of UK standards recently but we are not completely in the toilet as some suggest. As far as conference titles the degree of difficulty has increased significantly as the SEC has added more teams and the competition has improved considerably. That does not mean it is OK to not win any more titles by any means but it is far from the given it once was.

 

[Ash Williams]

That is patently false. There are UK fans who can't get Cal's elite recruiting out of their heads, it guides their every thought.

 

[Ash Williams]

for the uninitiated, here is the bad faith cycle from that group:

1. Wait until they actually play. You’re not allowed to express doubts, concerns, or any negativity until the season starts.

2. Wait until the season is actually over. You’re not allowed to express doubts, concerns, or any negativity until the season is officially over. You never know, maybe a team that gets blown out all the time and can’t beat any team with a pulse will win the national championship.

3. Wait until next season. Oh sure, the team you weren’t allowed to criticize didn’t win anything of note but NEXT season is going to be where it all comes together. If you disagree, well you’re obviously a troll.

THIS.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

for the uninitiated, here is the bad faith cycle from that group:

1. Wait until they actually play. You’re not allowed to express doubts, concerns, or any negativity until the season starts.

2. Wait until the season is actually over. You’re not allowed to express doubts, concerns, or any negativity until the season is officially over. You never know, maybe a team that gets blown out all the time and can’t beat any team with a pulse will win the national championship.

3. Wait until next season. Oh sure, the team you weren’t allowed to criticize didn’t win anything of note but NEXT season is going to be where it all comes together. If you disagree, well you’re obviously a troll.

I can understand people rationally defending a position about sports, since we all care so much about it. But there are many who completely disregard the common decency of respecting others’ right to a difference of opinion. Pope is literally the worst or you’re a Pope slurping “cuck” OR Pope is literally the best or you are a UK-hating troll who needs to go cheer for your real team. I think the whole charade is bananas, and I’ve come to find that most Kentucky fans think both of those sides are a reach.

That said, your post is correct about the most extreme sample of fans who literally do not allow any criticism or questions about the coach. There are others though who are just as extreme on the opposing side of the battleground. They don’t allow even the slightest victories for the coach and are just as bad-faith, painting everything literally as negative as possible to push an agenda. Both sides are running an agenda and I don’t see why we need either one. We all see the highs and lows, more lows than highs lately even though many of us differ on the “why” behind them.

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

Whaaaaaaa! I'm still waiting for you to quote where I called anyone a name in this thread as you claimed.

Are you still a name caller if it wasn’t in this thread?

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

They spent their rev share which is a **** ton of money. I’m not saying we don’t spend. It’s the extra above rev share is why recruits are going elsewhere. Some schools like UL are promising payments for several years after the player is gone.
Barnhart would not let a deal like that happen in a million years.
We disagree and that’s fine.

Rev share, not rev share…They spent as much as anyone last season. And if they get Mitchell or Kohler, they will have spent as much as anyone this season. And I’m WAY good with that. Just gotta win.

 

[Ash Williams]

I blame Pope and injuries for last year. I blame Cal and injuries for Pope’s first year. In a pickle, he threw together that team and made us as competitive as Cal was doing for the last few years and took us farther in the tournament with a team riddled with injuries. Pope’s first year was really quite remarkable.

You're such a weak fan. The weakest. You're a fake. You "blame Pope?" Bulls.hit. You are his biggest spear catcher. Your contradiction is your last sentence.

 

[Ash Williams]

I supported Stoops and stand by it. Don’t care who that upsets. Best coach we had in my lifetime. Will be lucky if Stein continues where he left off. So if anything, Paul supporting Stoops is a plus in my mind. These kind of things should always be in house debates anyway, not something to bang anyone over the head with. I actually didn’t frequent the Lair because I knew my support of Stoops wasn’t welcome, frankly.

It's amazing that you can say that with a straight face, the coach who literally left for greener pastures and then had to come back because THEIR fans revolted. And he was allowed to continue for multiple seasons. And "best coach we had in my lifetime" is a really low bar to clear at UK, and he didn't clear it by that much, only longevity allowed that to happen. His record was pathetic at best.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Are you still a name caller if it wasn’t in this thread?

You were the one attacking me saying I called people names in this very thread. Are you capable of admitting you were wrong about that?

I've already addressed this for you in this very thread.

"I'll have patience with the venting to a certain extent but if someone does nothing but whine and trash up the board with negativity at all times I'll make no apologies for identifying them by their behavior on occasion."

The relatively innocuous insults I will occasionally use which are tied directly to actual behavior and usually in response to insults first thrown my way are nothing compared to the obscenities layered with gay connotations that I often receive.

Are you so fragile that it ends your world if someone calls you a whiner or a negative crybaby when you are doing nothing but whining, being negative, and crying about everything?

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

You were the one attacking me saying I called people names in this very thread. Are you capable of admitting you were wrong about that?

I've already addressed this for you in this very thread.

"I'll have patience with the venting to a certain extent but if someone does nothing but whine and trash up the board with negativity at all times I'll make no apologies for identifying them by their behavior on occasion."

The relatively innocuous insults I will occasionally use which are tied directly to actual behavior and usually in response to insults first thrown my way are nothing compared to the obscenities layered with gay connotations that I often receive.

Are you so fragile that it ends your world if someone calls you a whiner or a negative crybaby when you are doing nothing but whining, being negative, and crying about everything?

Name caller

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Name caller

It's absolutely pathetic that you think that is clever. You do not have the ability to discuss things in good faith or even admit when you were clearly wrong is what leads to all of this.

I get that you are just trying to be irritating but I'm laughing at your ineptness in doing so.

 

[TheBlueMist]

You did make the comparison to our situation. Once again you are basing this entirely on hindsight. It was not realistic and far from a safe bet that you were just going to get someone who forecasted better than Cal as of 2019. The decision could not have been based on the unknown upcoming seasons and there was every reason to expect much better than what played out and very little reason to have expected the kind of downturn that occurred.

Your entire premise assumes it was obviously foreseeable that diminishing returns were what was instore for our future and that was a ridiculous assumption to have made at that time.

Your claim that the premise “assumes it was obviously foreseeable” misstates the actual argument. Forecasting and “selling at the opportune time” do not require certainty that diminishing returns will occur, only a reasoned assessment that the risk of them occurring has risen enough that the expected value of continuing with the current coach is no longer clearly superior to the expected value of a reset.

In 2019 Calipari was coming off a 30-7 Elite Eight season and still highly regarded. That is not in dispute. The relevant question was never “is a sharp decline guaranteed?” It was whether the probability-weighted outlook justified locking in another long window rather than testing the market for a coach whose trajectory might be steeper. Age, the inherent volatility of the one-and-done model after a decade of heavy reliance on it, the observable flattening of UK’s ceiling relative to the 2010–15 peak, and the fact that elite programs routinely move coaches while they still command high market value are all legitimate consideratiuons into that forecast. None of them required hindsight of the 2020–21 collapse or the subsequent sub-70% seasons.

Treating any pre-2019 argument for change as “ridiculous” because the downturn was not yet fully realized is itself a hindsight error. Investment and coaching decisions are made under uncertainty; the correct standard is whether the decision process properly weighed known risks and opportunity costs at the time, not whether the worst-case path could have been predicted with accuracy. If the counter-position is simply that Mitch and the administration reasonably believed Calipari still offered the highest expected return, that is a coherent disagreement about the forecast itself. Claiming the original premise demanded clairvoyance about diminishing returns is not.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Your claim that the premise “assumes it was obviously foreseeable” misstates the actual argument. Forecasting and “selling at the opportune time” do not require certainty that diminishing returns will occur, only a reasoned assessment that the risk of them occurring has risen enough that the expected value of continuing with the current coach is no longer clearly superior to the expected value of a reset.

In 2019 Calipari was coming off a 30-7 Elite Eight season and still highly regarded. That is not in dispute. The relevant question was never “is a sharp decline guaranteed?” It was whether the probability-weighted outlook justified locking in another long window rather than testing the market for a coach whose trajectory might be steeper. Age, the inherent volatility of the one-and-done model after a decade of heavy reliance on it, the observable flattening of UK’s ceiling relative to the 2010–15 peak, and the fact that elite programs routinely move coaches while they still command high market value are all legitimate consideratiuons into that forecast. None of them required hindsight of the 2020–21 collapse or the subsequent sub-70% seasons.

Treating any pre-2019 argument for change as “ridiculous” because the downturn was not yet fully realized is itself a hindsight error. Investment and coaching decisions are made under uncertainty; the correct standard is whether the decision process properly weighed known risks and opportunity costs at the time, not whether the worst-case path could have been predicted with accuracy. If the counter-position is simply that Mitch and the administration reasonably believed Calipari still offered the highest expected return, that is a coherent disagreement about the forecast itself. Claiming the original premise demanded clairvoyance about diminishing returns is not.

You have said an awful lot here while basically saying nothing or adding anything that actually clarified your position imo.

"only a reasoned assessment that the risk of them occurring has risen enough that the expected value of continuing with the current coach is no longer clearly superior to the expected value of a reset."

It is utterly absurd to suggest this was the position UK was in imo. Who do you believe was reasonably gettable at that point that showed more promise as a "reset" than Cal moving forward from 2019? I contend that any reasonable assessment demands you lock in your Hall of Fame coach who was on a sustained run of excellence. As I've stated before I'm not sure that 10 years was necessary or the wisest duration to go for. If it was in fact 10 years or let him walk I still favor giving the 10 years if those are the only options.

I have no idea where you get the notion that Elite programs routinely move on from coaches that are still succeeding at a high level.

 

[NociHTTP]

The program is no longer elite as evidenced by these numbers alone. We all want it to turn around. Whether that can happen with Pope at the helm is, at minimum, a massive question mark.

I know this downward trend was on Cal without a doubt, but that blame game can only last so long.

Thankfully, we still have the next few years to change the narrative, and I’m sure hoping we do!!!

How much of it is people blaming Cal for where we're at, and how much of it is Pope-haters choosing to ignore where we are because of Cal?

 

[TheBlueMist]

You have said an awful lot here while basically saying nothing or adding anything that actually clarified your position imo.

"only a reasoned assessment that the risk of them occurring has risen enough that the expected value of continuing with the current coach is no longer clearly superior to the expected value of a reset."

It is utterly absurd to suggest this was the position UK was in imo. Who do you believe was reasonably gettable at that point that showed more promise as a "reset" than Cal moving forward from 2019? I contend that any reasonable assessment demands you lock in your Hall of Fame coach who was on a sustained run of excellence. As I've stated before I'm not sure that 10 years was necessary or the wisest duration to go for. If it was in fact 10 years or let him walk I still favor giving the 10 years if those are the only options.

If what I am arguing is "saying nothing" then we are at an impasse. If the risk-assessment framing is being dismissed as empty rather than engaged, then we’re talking past each other. I appreciate the spirited exchange, nonetheless.

We can agree that the 10-year contract was unwise and leave it at that.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

If what I am arguing is "saying nothing" then we are at an impasse. If the risk-assessment framing is being dismissed as empty rather than engaged, then we’re talking past each other. I appreciate the spirited exchange, nonetheless.

We can agree that the 10-year contract was unwise and leave it at that.

It's not that I wasn't understanding your contention it was that I vehemently disagreed with your judgement of the situation. I do appreciate your effort to intelligently explain your reasoning and I apologize if I was too harsh. I just felt like you were insinuating that I couldn't understand your premise and that was not the case. I understand risk assessment but our evaluations on that basis are worlds apart. I think letting your Hall of Fame coach who was still succeeding at a high level get away would have been a catastrophic error absent the advantage of hindsight.

I'd preferred a bit shorter of a contract but definitely preferred how it went to just letting him walk at that time. I'm definitely good with just agreeing to disagree at this point as we both made the points we wanted to make and I respect the way you handled the conclusion of this exchange.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Rev share, not rev share…They spent as much as anyone last season. And if they get Mitchell or Kohler, they will have spent as much as anyone this season. And I’m WAY good with that. Just gotta win.

Reverend Share?

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

It's amazing that you can say that with a straight face, the coach who literally left for greener pastures and then had to come back because THEIR fans revolted. And he was allowed to continue for multiple seasons. And "best coach we had in my lifetime" is a really low bar to clear at UK, and he didn't clear it by that much, only longevity allowed that to happen. His record was pathetic at best.

If he clears it by a country mile or by inches, best coach in 50 years ought to mean something. I like Stoops and I certainly am not forcing my opinion onto others.

 

[CRZ4UK]

How much of it is people blaming Cal for where we're at, and how much of it is Pope-haters choosing to ignore where we are because of Cal?

What about the ones who don’t blame the real culprit in Mitch Barnhart?? I don’t blame either of them. I don’t think any coach in the country could have succeeded under Barnhart in this new era. Barnhart is the reason no good applicant ever wanted to come here. His last 2 hires were lifelong fans. No one else wanted to work for him and his misguided compass.

 

[Blueworld_3.0]

We’re irrelevant ATM, hard truth and reality…

Yep and AFAIAC, this is a make or break year for Pope. A repeat of last season and his seat is gonna be HOT. At least from the fan perspective.
Of course, with that ridiculous contract Barnshyt gave him, all he has to do is make a Sweet Sixteen and he'll get a year added to his contract.
Clearly, we do not hate Barnshyt enough around here.

 

[Beatle Bum]

I visited the future and in the year 2050 some fans and grandchildren of fans today are bitching about Mitch Barnhart. The religion will not die!!

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

I visited the future and in the year 2050 some fans and grandchildren of fans today are bitching about Mitch Barnhart. The religion will not die!!

He’s literally not even gone BB. I can promise you it isn’t dying soon. Especially as long as he’s lurking in the shadows of UK’s athletic department.

 

[Beatle Bum]

He’s literally not even gone BB. I can promise you it isn’t dying soon. Especially as long as he’s lurking in the shadows of UK’s athletic department.

 

[Ash Williams]

I visited the future and in the year 2050 some fans and grandchildren of fans today are bitching about Mitch Barnhart. The religion will not die!!

The reverberations of his failure will be felt for generations

 

[Beatle Bum]

The reverberations of his failure will be felt for generations

You’ll make sure of it!!

 

[warrior-cat]

Clearly, we do not hate Barnshyt enough around here.

LOL This part got me. Don't know why but it did.

 

[warrior-cat]

I visited the future and in the year 2050 some fans and grandchildren of fans today are bitching about Mitch Barnhart. The religion will not die!!

I will be 93 and still playing softball. And yeah, bitching about Barnhart too.