The Minnesota game in Week 2 is bigger than a non-conference game should be. Its a game against a solid Big Ten team that is winnable. Win it, and maybe we can make a run at a respectable season. Lose it, and we have to bounce back in the next two. Lose it big, and its going to be a long season.
Things you may not know:
Minnesota has the longest bowl winning streak in the nation. They have won 8 straight bowl games.
Minnesota went undefeated at home last year (7-0)
Last time Minnesota played a home game against a non-conference Power 4? UNC won 19-17 in 2024 to open the season
The Gophers open the season against FCS Eastern Illinois, so they will not be tested. There are high hopes for a big season at Minnesota this year. They avoid Ohio State and Oregon and they have Michigan at home. They have a trip to Indiana, but otherwise their schedule is very manageable.
They have a returning starter at QB. Lindsey had an encouraging debut season, all things considered. He finished with a 126.9 NCAA passer rating, a little less than one standard deviation below median, though on what was a highly excessive volume of short passing play calls, an unproductive receiver corps, and shaky protection especially on the right side of the line. He’s got great size, clearly capable of throwing deep with accuracy and has an unproblematic throwing motion. The only real limitation – other than the offense he’s operating in – is that he doesn’t have top level escapability and isn’t a serious threat in the designed run game, though he’s not a complete statue. Typically that works well for a Zac Arnett defense.
Taylor is a solid RB that has dealt with some injuries. He will be their starter and workhorse, but after a breakout freshman year, he's not been as productive. Minnesota might have a weaker offensive line than Mississippi State, so I expect us to be aggressive.
The receiving corps for Minnesota is anyone's guess.Its all new faces. They have a new WR coach as well. Jennings from Cincinnati is a good transfer but after that, not a lot to look at.
Minnesota is formidable on the defensive side of the ball, but tends to give up big plays both in passing and rushing. They run a 4-2-5 and their strength is the defensive line, but they lost their DL coach and four seniors from last year so there could be a new scheme. They do have some returners at DE so expect a lot of blitzes to try to keep Kamario in check.
Minnesota played 9% of their pass coverages in zone and 17% in man. The rest in Cover-1. This is a very high stress posture that demands the pass rush gets home fast and the coverage holds up on islands, preferably both, because there’s effectively no over-the-top safety support. If Kamario can hit his receivers, there could be the opportunity for big plays.
Preseason wool and looking at the actual data has caused me to move this game from a tight loss to a probable win. We're better than they are.
Things you may not know:
Minnesota has the longest bowl winning streak in the nation. They have won 8 straight bowl games.
Minnesota went undefeated at home last year (7-0)
Last time Minnesota played a home game against a non-conference Power 4? UNC won 19-17 in 2024 to open the season
The Gophers open the season against FCS Eastern Illinois, so they will not be tested. There are high hopes for a big season at Minnesota this year. They avoid Ohio State and Oregon and they have Michigan at home. They have a trip to Indiana, but otherwise their schedule is very manageable.
They have a returning starter at QB. Lindsey had an encouraging debut season, all things considered. He finished with a 126.9 NCAA passer rating, a little less than one standard deviation below median, though on what was a highly excessive volume of short passing play calls, an unproductive receiver corps, and shaky protection especially on the right side of the line. He’s got great size, clearly capable of throwing deep with accuracy and has an unproblematic throwing motion. The only real limitation – other than the offense he’s operating in – is that he doesn’t have top level escapability and isn’t a serious threat in the designed run game, though he’s not a complete statue. Typically that works well for a Zac Arnett defense.
Taylor is a solid RB that has dealt with some injuries. He will be their starter and workhorse, but after a breakout freshman year, he's not been as productive. Minnesota might have a weaker offensive line than Mississippi State, so I expect us to be aggressive.
The receiving corps for Minnesota is anyone's guess.Its all new faces. They have a new WR coach as well. Jennings from Cincinnati is a good transfer but after that, not a lot to look at.
Minnesota is formidable on the defensive side of the ball, but tends to give up big plays both in passing and rushing. They run a 4-2-5 and their strength is the defensive line, but they lost their DL coach and four seniors from last year so there could be a new scheme. They do have some returners at DE so expect a lot of blitzes to try to keep Kamario in check.
Minnesota played 9% of their pass coverages in zone and 17% in man. The rest in Cover-1. This is a very high stress posture that demands the pass rush gets home fast and the coverage holds up on islands, preferably both, because there’s effectively no over-the-top safety support. If Kamario can hit his receivers, there could be the opportunity for big plays.
Preseason wool and looking at the actual data has caused me to move this game from a tight loss to a probable win. We're better than they are.
