OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
5,433
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Someone was making the point that the market is sending the message that it doesn’t like all this hyperscaler spending and if these companies pull back it will pull the rug in the downstream players.

I thought this a good point but with Tesla having just recently upped its spending in a big way I don’t think we are close to a pull back in spending.
Google is a great example, they have a 25 year track record of an average of 32% ROIC. I would trust their continued investments over buybacks
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,305
12,425
82
The bears are gloating. We are nearing the bottom.
I’m not a bear. Think everyone is long the same stocks. But some have more exposure than others. I’m definitely not a bull either. My opinion is stay diversified, invested and dollar cost avg.
 
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RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
34,145
50,148
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Someone was making the point that the market is sending the message that it doesn’t like all this hyperscaler spending and if these companies pull back it will pull the rug in the downstream players.

I thought this a good point but with Tesla having just recently upped its spending in a big way I don’t think we are close to a pull back in spending.
no way
I equate it to the early internet times. Also, every major bank I know is full on with 'in mode' for AI

a white collar bloodbath is coming imho
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
15,046
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I’m not a bear. Think everyone is long the same stocks. But some have more exposure than others. I’m definitely not a bull either. My opinion is stay diversified, invested and dollar cost avg.
Oh your comparison to 2001 was you being neutral? Makes sense.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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no way
I equate it to the early internet times. Also, every major bank I know is full on with 'in mode' for AI

a white collar bloodbath is coming imho
Just remember what happened in early internet times…very hard to pick the winners and losers. We also didn’t have to deal with the Chinese back then and now they are casting serious doubt on whether OpenAI and Anthropic are worth the valuation. The second data center overcapacity becomes an issue there will be carnage.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
32,251
20,169
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You have any thoughts on Apnimed IPO? Could it be the next MANE (which I’m still pissed I didn’t buy)?
I think Apnimed looks really good. It's drug has strong data which should lead to FDA approval in Feb. They already raised $150m in debt financing and now another $160m'ish with the IPO. Plenty of cash to launch the product. I'm iffy about all IPO and normally wait to buy the dip, but perhaps buy a 1/2 position of IPO shares and you can add if it dips?
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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I think Apnimed looks really good. Its drug has strong data which should lead to FDA approval in Feb. They already raised $150m in debt financing and now another $160m'ish with the IPO. Plenty of cash to launch the product. I'm iffy about all IPO and normally wait to buy the dip, but perhaps buy a 1/2 position of IPO shares and you can add if it dips?
Thanks for the feedback - I’ll probably dip my toe in the water with small IPO allocation.

you have any thoughts on Neffy ((SPRY)? It was supposed to put the EpiPen out of business but looks like the old CEO and commercial team were clowns. New leadership. SPRY plummeted recently due to payer/distribution issues. Seems like an amazing product - who would choose needle over nasal spray? Thinking it could be turnaround play…?
 

RUBlackout

All-American
Mar 11, 2008
10,960
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no way
I equate it to the early internet times. Also, every major bank I know is full on with 'in mode' for AI

a white collar bloodbath is coming imho
Not sure I would say a bloodbath but I def see reduction in staff being replaced by series of Agentic workflows that improved productivity around repeatable work.
Still need the critical thinking, data, and context sitting over these agents as well as proofing the outputs so the human in the loop will remain.
I just see it as one person orchestrating these agents as if they are a team whereas in the past it may have been 4 people doing those jobs.
 
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Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
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Not sure if it’s true but it’s all over Twitter from various sources so worth posting. Between his work on the GameStop madness, buying $100 million houses to knock down, his GFC work and now this, Griffin is the ultimate villain genius. I’d love to watch a documentary about him.

 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
32,251
20,169
113
Not sure if it’s true but it’s all over Twitter from various sources so worth posting. Between his work on the GameStop madness, buying $100 million houses to knock down, his GFC work and now this, Griffin is the ultimate villain genius. I’d love to watch a documentary about him.


Caught red-handed. AGAIN! And people complain about the Roaring Kitty's of retail world? LOL.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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Caught red-handed. AGAIN! And people complain about the Roaring Kitty's of retail world? LOL.
Proves yet again market is rigged which is why most of my money is in index funds. My trading account is sucking wind although glad I unloaded a bunch of AI stuff two weeks ago. Yesterday’s mini crash was basically caused by the Whiz kid having to unwind the disaster he created as his portfolio apparently went from like $45B to $10B in a matter of weeks. And now the algos and Big Money pumping up the chips again.
 

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
5,433
6,436
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Proves yet again market is rigged which is why most of my money is in index funds. My trading account is sucking wind although glad I unloaded a bunch of AI stuff two weeks ago. Yesterday’s mini crash was basically caused by the Whiz kid having to unwind the disaster he created as his portfolio apparently went from like $45B to $10B in a matter of weeks. And now the algos and Big Money pumping up the chips again.
Destroyed the entire stock market of South Korea so Griffin could blow up Situational Awareness. Can’t beat it

 
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rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
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Proves yet again market is rigged which is why most of my money is in index funds. My trading account is sucking wind although glad I unloaded a bunch of AI stuff two weeks ago. Yesterday’s mini crash was basically caused by the Whiz kid having to unwind the disaster he created as his portfolio apparently went from like $45B to $10B in a matter of weeks. And now the algos and Big Money pumping up the chips again.
The problem isn't just folks like Ken Griffin. It is the people that listen to him. Spending for AI and its infrastructure isn't going to slow because of rate hikes. The people that sold their position because they heard some "expert" who is looking out for their own interests, are also to blame. Listening to all these companies, capex is not slowing down and these companies that sell chips, memories will be the first beneficiaries. I did not sell during this downturn; in fact, I bought more and lowered my cost basis.
 

kupuna133

All-American
Jul 13, 2015
7,029
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The problem isn't just folks like Ken Griffin. It is the people that listen to him. Spending for AI and its infrastructure isn't going to slow because of rate hikes. The people that sold their position because they heard some "expert" who is looking out for their own interests, are also to blame. Listening to all these companies, capex is not slowing down and these companies that sell chips, memories will be the first beneficiaries. I did not sell during this downturn; in fact, I bought more and lowered my cost basis.
Exactly. Most of the experts speak their book. Or speak what they want their book to look like. They manipulate the talking heads. He wanted the market to come in. He wanted volatility. He makes money on volatile markets. Not markets that only move in one direction.
 
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Anon1751565407

Sophomore
Jul 3, 2025
191
120
43
MSFT back up near $450/sh. Investors willing to forgive them (temporarily at least) for being a software company. Once they stop spending so much on the data centers build out in 2029-ish maybe the PE multiple gets a boost. PE currently just below 23. Perhaps only a bird brain would think that’s cheap cheap…but many analysts do maintain price targets higher than $450…for what THAT’s worth.🤷‍♂️
 
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kupuna133

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Jul 13, 2015
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Someone didn’t learn or was around for fiber optics crash. LOL

can’t blame others when you take direction bet. That’s what we call stupid longs.
Yep. This is a great listen. Shows how he may not be the smartest guy in the room but very few people will outwork him and his teams.

 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
15,046
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Not sure if it’s true but it’s all over Twitter from various sources so worth posting. Between his work on the GameStop madness, buying $100 million houses to knock down, his GFC work and now this, Griffin is the ultimate villain genius. I’d love to watch a documentary about him.


So the unwind is over?

I shed no tears for someone running a 4x levered portfolio.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Looks like it. Poor guy is left with a $10b port. Don’t know how he’s going to survive.
And we don't know what he started with.

I'm guessing he was still up on the trade. If KORU is any indication, he may have still been up 3x if he was in the trade for year.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
15,046
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And I'm also doubting that the AI trade was crushed due to the potential of a qtr point rate hike. Never mind that that potential is still out there.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
5,132
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I'm being over the top, but when one of the biggest market movers does a reverse pump and dump move, I really can't complain about anyone else trying to do the same.
Am I the only one that finds it crazy that David Fabor said on CNBC that he got a call about Situational Awareness problem last Saturday night? First of all, if he knew…how many others knew? Second of all, he doesn’t report on what would have been the story of Monday morning and at least allow the public to determine their portfolio risk? Instead situational awareness and Citadel wait until the Fed speaks to tank the market? The timing is not a coincidence
 
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