Which Of The Big 3 Early B!G Games Will Iowa Win and Why?

[Ellobo]

My Prediction

Iowa beats Michigan. Michigan had 30 portal transfers and has yet another head coach, Kyle Wittingham. They will not have gelled yet. They will also have played against Oklahoma. Iowa will have much better film to view regarding Michigan's tendencies, they will be more exposed. Iowa will see more of their playbook than Iowa will have shown. ISU being down this year will allow Iowa to not have to dig deep into the playbook to win.
.
Michigan Offensive Changes

• • Base Offense: Transitioning to a spread offense utilizing 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) as its foundational look.
  • Coordinator: Led by offensive coordinator Jason Beck, bringing elements from his previous effective stops. [1, 2]

Michigan Defensive Changes

• 
  Base Defense: Implementing a 4-2-5 nickel base scheme (four-down lineman, two linebackers, five defensive backs) that shifts to a traditional 4-3 against heavier 12 personnel looks. [1]
  • Coordinator: Run by new defensive coordinator Jay Hill (formerly of BYU), focusing heavily on an attacking style, pressure packages, and man coverage

Less Certain is Ohio State. Iowa City at night is a big boost for Iowa. Both Iowa and Ohio State run a Shanahan Style of Offense. So both defenses will be running downhill as they see these looks every day in practice. Ohio State lost 35 to the portal, and are bringing in 17. Again, loss of depth and continuity that you cannot replace easily. Their full playbook will likely not be ready. This game is going to be tighter than the national pundits think. I call Iowa beats Ohio State by four.

Washington? That game is a loss, the West Coast jinx continues.

Not sure where you are getting that 30 portal transfer number? Michigan brought in 16 players including 4 from Utah that were all starters for them last year...I assume their familiarity with the staff is a plus. If you are talking guys who left...still not 30 and only one who was expected to be in the two deep. A lot where former walk-ons and younger players that would have been nice for depth but weren't expected to see much time this year.

 

[Passing Is For COMMIES]

Not sure where you are getting that 30 portal transfer number? Michigan brought in 16 players including 4 from Utah that were all starters for them last year...I assume their familiarity with the staff is a plus. If you are talking guys who left...still not 30 and only one who was expected to be in the two deep. A lot where former walk-ons and younger players that would have been nice for depth but weren't expected to see much time this year.

He’s including the 14 high school kids joining as freshmen

 

[Burghawk87]

Not sure where you are getting that 30 portal transfer number? Michigan brought in 16 players including 4 from Utah that were all starters for them last year...I assume their familiarity with the staff is a plus. If you are talking guys who left...still not 30 and only one who was expected to be in the two deep. A lot where former walk-ons and younger players that would have been nice for depth but weren't expected to see much time this year.

27 out plus 16 in is actually more than 30. I'm not sure what BigDel is referring to but his post reads like AI. Regardless thanks for your input here, always appreciate an outsiders input when it's not strictly trolling.

 

[Ellobo]

He’s including the 14 high school kids joining as freshmen

That doesn't add up either...we brought in 24 kids. And they will be true freshman so only a handful are expected to be contributors...a few more will get their feet wet and some will play special teams.

 

[Passing Is For COMMIES]

That doesn't add up either...we brought in 24 kids. And they will be true freshman so only a handful are expected to be contributors...a few more will get their feet wet and some will play special teams.

He's talking about Michigan. 16 portal transfers + 14 freshmen equals 30 new kids. Yes a lot of the freshmen won't be expected to contribute but it's still a 30% roster turnover combined with a new staff, offense, and defense. It's not very comparable to Iowa who has a ton of stability everywhere else within the program besides last years big senior class.

 

[Ellobo]

He's talking about Michigan. 16 portal transfers + 14 freshmen equals 30 new kids. Yes a lot of the freshmen won't be expected to contribute but it's still a 30% roster turnover combined with a new staff, offense, and defense. It's not very comparable to Iowa who has a ton of stability everywhere else within the program besides last years big senior class.

16+24=40

so either his math is bad or his info is bad

 

[BigDelHawk]

Not sure where you are getting that 30 portal transfer number? Michigan brought in 16 players including 4 from Utah that were all starters for them last year...I assume their familiarity with the staff is a plus. If you are talking guys who left...still not 30 and only one who was expected to be in the two deep. A lot where former walk-ons and younger players that would have been nice for depth but weren't expected to see much time this year.

I stand corrected, only 25 actually left.

• WR Fred Moore (Signed with Michigan State)
• OL Connor Jones (Signed with Georgia State)
• QB Jadyn Davis (Signed with ETSU)
• QB Davis Warren (Signed with Stanford)
• CB Elijah Dotson (Signed with Missouri)
• LB Cole Sullivan (Signed with Oklahoma — story here)
• WR Semaj Morgan (Signed with UCLA)
• RB Jasper Parker (Signed with Arkansas)
• OL Kaden Strayhorn (Signed with Alabama)
• Edge rusher Devon Baxter (Signed with Virginia)
• S Jaden Mangham (Signed with Purdue)
• TE Brady Prieskorn (Signed with Ole Miss)
• OL Ben Roebuck (Signed with Western Michigan)
• K Beckham Sunderland (Signed with Minnesota)
• QB Mikey Keene (Signed with Arizona State)
• LB Jaydon Hood (Signed with Georgia State)
• OL Ty Haywood (Signed with Alabama)
• CB Jayden Sanders (Signed with Notre Dame)
• S Brandyn Hillman (Signed with Virginia)
• DB TJ Metcalf (Signed with Tennessee)
• RB Justice Haynes (Signed with Georgia Tech)
• DB Tevis Metcalf (Signed with Tennessee)
• WR Peyton O’Leary
• QB Jake Garcia
• WR Anthony Simpson (Signed with Toledo)

These entered, and then decided to stay:

• CB Zeke Berry
• WR Logan Forbes
• OL Andrew Sprague
• OL Jake Guarnera
• S Jordan Young
• DL Enow Etta
• RB Bryson Kuzdzal
• OL Lawrence Hattar

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Best chance is Michigan.

Zero shot against Ohio St.

West coast travel makes Washington look very doubtful.

Zero shot against OSU, explain the 2017 woodshed game?

 

[rchawk]

Zero shot against OSU, explain the 2017 woodshed game?

If the new Iowa QB is decent, both Washington and Michigan could be vulnerable. I know it's a lot to hope for, but I will go for 2-1. If we lose at UM 1-2. If we lose at Washington go for the sweep of the old Big Ten West.

 

[hawksfan2025]

Yeah, femur up the rectum sounds pretty serious.

At least it isn't his head!

 

[HawksRule73]

If the new Iowa QB is decent, both Washington and Michigan could be vulnerable. I know it's a lot to hope for, but I will go for 2-1. If we lose at UM 1-2. If we lose at Washington go for the sweep of the old Big Ten West.

I’m not as concerned about the decency of the QB early in the season as I am the decency of the DL.

 

[313oldman]

My Prediction

Iowa beats Michigan. Michigan had 30 portal transfers and has yet another head coach, Kyle Wittingham. They will not have gelled yet. They will also have played against Oklahoma. Iowa will have much better film to view regarding Michigan's tendencies, they will be more exposed. Iowa will see more of their playbook than Iowa will have shown. ISU being down this year will allow Iowa to not have to dig deep into the playbook to win.
.
Michigan Offensive Changes

• • Base Offense: Transitioning to a spread offense utilizing 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) as its foundational look.
  • Coordinator: Led by offensive coordinator Jason Beck, bringing elements from his previous effective stops. [1, 2]

Michigan Defensive Changes

• 
  Base Defense: Implementing a 4-2-5 nickel base scheme (four-down lineman, two linebackers, five defensive backs) that shifts to a traditional 4-3 against heavier 12 personnel looks. [1]
  • Coordinator: Run by new defensive coordinator Jay Hill (formerly of BYU), focusing heavily on an attacking style, pressure packages, and man coverage

Less Certain is Ohio State. Iowa City at night is a big boost for Iowa. Both Iowa and Ohio State run a Shanahan Style of Offense. So both defenses will be running downhill as they see these looks every day in practice. Ohio State lost 35 to the portal, and are bringing in 17. Again, loss of depth and continuity that you cannot replace easily. Their full playbook will likely not be ready. This game is going to be tighter than the national pundits think. I call Iowa beats Ohio State by four.

Washington? That game is a loss, the West Coast jinx continues.

iowa may or may not win the game, but your reasoning is flawed...the transfer total is moot, and you insinuating that replacing moore with a HOF coach is a negative makes zero sense..

 

[Fight4Iowa]

With the regime change in Ann Arbor, earlier in the season, I think that's our best chance at a win in those 3.

All 3 are winnable, but I'd say most likely scenario is 1-2, second most likely 0-3, third 2-1.

We need to be have settled in on a QB, be healthy going in, and stay healthy going through the 3 game stretch if we have any hope at getting through there better than 1-2.