Making up the points for # 35!

[Howie_Fartz]

Looking at "predictions" from JD Rader of Flo and current rankings from Wrestlestat, we have points to make up to overtake psu. Granted thats no suprise but its interesting to take a look through the weights to see where those points could potentially be made up. Keep in mind both WS and JD are also making predictions on the starters for all teams.

JD was much more generous than WS putting 7 Cowboys in the finals w/ 3 champs while WS has us w/ 2 finalist and 2 champs. W/o including bonus JD has us finishing 2nd in the team race w/ 141.5 points to psu's 167.5 (-26), while WS has us 115.1 to psu's 163.3 (-48.2).

For discussion I will include each weight w/ each predicted starter for both us and psu w/ predicted finishes:

125- JD has Troy finishing 2nd behind psu's LL
125- WS has Troy finishing 3rd behind LL and Provo

133- JD has Jax taking first over BD and Blaze psu taking 4th
133- WS has jax winning over Crookham and Blaze taking 5th

141- JD has Jordyn Raney taking 8th behind (1-7) Stanich, Bo, Ono (psu), Ech, E Frost, N Bailey & Vombauer.
141- WS has Tagen taking 7th behind Stanich, C Nogle, E frost, Cornella, Vombauer & Nate Desmond (psu) - Bo not ranked as incoming FR

149- JD has Vega winning over Valencia w/ SVN psu taking 3rd, Henson 4th
149- WS has Vega winning over SVN w/ Henson and Valencia taking 3-4th

157- JD has Duke psu winning over Robideau in the finals w/ Taylor and Webster 3-4th
157- WS has Duke over Webster in the finals w/ LRob and Taylor taking 3-4th

165- JD has MM psu over Lockett in the finals w/ Ruiz and Blaze 3-4th
165-WS has MM over Ruiz w/ Blaze and Dee taking 3-4th

174- JD has Minto over J James psu in the finals w/ Beau M, Steed, Wask, Ruiz & Larkin ahead of either Z Ryder or L Norman coming in at 8th
174- WS has Minto over Larkin in the finals w/ Ruiz and Steed 3-4th. WS has Henckel psu at 15th and L Norman at 17th

184- JD has McEnelly over Walsh psu in the finals w/ Ferrari, Sinclair & Brock M. ahead of Berge coming in at 6th place
184- WS has Sinclair over McEnelly in the finals w/ welsh over Ferrari 3-4th. Berge in at 11th

197- JD has Barr psu over Merrill in the finals w/ Little and Novak taking 3-4th
197- WS has Barr over Little in the finals w/ Novak and Merrill taking 3-4th

285- JD ahs Dreshaun Ross over C/C Mirasola psu in the finals w/ Kueter and Feldman 3-4th
285- WS has Endene over Kueter in the finals w/ Feldman and Voelker 3-4th. Mirasola comes in at 7th and Ross is not ranked.

No updated Crystal ball from Willie yet but we can revisit when his predictions comes out.

 

[Howie_Fartz]

For myself at a glance from everything we've heard it wont be Duke back at 157 but it could be, I think we get big points from Norman at 174 for either JD or WS but especially WS. Berge gets more points on WS and Ross definitely does. Raney or Tagen both place higher at 141 imo. I think itll be closer than many predict and could come down to who's heathier in March.

 

[AtownPoke]

So where do we close the gap in yalls opinion? It’ll take expected performances from our champs and shocking upsets from the contenders and pups.

 

[Howie_Fartz]

So where do we close the gap in yalls opinion? It’ll take expected performances from our champs and shocking upsets from the contenders and pups.

Norman is key imo, as I really think he's top 3. 141 is also huge and a weight we can potentially pick up 8-10 points. Lrob repeats. We absolutely HAVE to perform at 165.

 

[Corby2]

For myself at a glance from everything we've heard it wont be Duke back at 157 but it could be, I think we get big points from Norman at 174 for either JD or WS but especially WS. Berge gets more points on WS and Ross definitely does. Raney or Tagen both place higher at 141 imo. I think itll be closer than many predict and could come down to who's heathier in March.

Sounding more and more like Duke will be back at 157

 

[Corby2]

So where do we close the gap in yalls opinion? It’ll take expected performances from our champs and shocking upsets from the contenders and pups.

You don't this year . They probably win by 40-45

 

[ionel]

Looking at "predictions" from JD Rader of Flo and current rankings from Wrestlestat, we have points to make up to overtake psu.

They are wrong:

125 - Sprately likely 1st

133 - Jax 1st

141 - Jamison replaced by Raney prob 1st

149 - Vega 1st

157 - Robideau 1st

165 - Lockett could be 1st

174 - Norman maybe 1st

184 - Berge chance of 1st

197 - Merrill if OT then 1st

HWT - Ross 1st

 

[Corby2]

They are wrong:

125 - Sprately likely 1st

133 - Jax 1st

141 - Jamison replaced by Raney prob 1st

149 - Vega 1st

157 - Robideau 1st

165 - Lockett could be 1st

174 - Norman maybe 1st

184 - Berge chance of 1st

197 - Merrill if OT then 1st

HWT - Ross 1st

No one thinks 165 is a toss up who starts?

 

[newguy123]

No one thinks 165 is a toss up who starts?

I do. Several dawgs after it. Dee as starter and finalist both is a bit generous. No shade and of course I want to see him get there but he has a number of areas to grow in before he’s contending for a title.

 

[AtownPoke]

You don't this year . They probably win by 40-45

Cool.. My point was that I want some predictions on who helps close the gap. Just spit ball some predictions.

 

[Corby2]

Cool.. My point was that I want some predictions on who helps close the gap. Just spit ball some predictions.

JD already has you with 7 in the finals which is crazy. You would need to place higher at 141 184 and have penn st not have a great tournament. Would need Luke to not make the finals have them low AA at 141 and Mirasola 4th. You would also need to have 6 in the finals probably and have everyone AA

 

[okokzach]

JD already has you with 7 in the finals which is crazy. You would need to place higher at 141 184 and have penn st not have a great tournament. Would need Luke to not make the finals have them low AA at 141 and Mirasola 4th. You would also need to have 6 in the finals probably and have everyone AA

His predictions for PSU are also crazy: 168 points NOT including bonus

 

[Corby2]

His predictions for PSU are also crazy: 168 points NOT including bonus

Yes that's high as well. Many fans on this board wouldn't have Oklahoma St with 7 in the finals if they were putting money on it. And Penn st fans wouldnt bet 168 before bonus either. His #s are definitely high but I'm glad he did it

 

[topc22blue]

They are wrong:

125 - Sprately likely 1st

133 - Jax 1st

141 - Jamison replaced by Raney prob 1st

149 - Vega 1st

157 - Robideau 1st

165 - Lockett could be 1st

174 - Norman maybe 1st

184 - Berge chance of 1st

197 - Merrill if OT then 1st

HWT - Ross 1st

Might beat Penn St if that happens.

 

[chasepollard]

Yes that's high as well. Many fans on this board wouldn't have Oklahoma St with 7 in the finals if they were putting money on it. And Penn st fans wouldnt bet 168 before bonus either. His #s are definitely high but I'm glad he did it

I’ll put money on 10 finalists!

But, I’d like to have a little more action on total bracket.

 

[rcsone1]

....there is a huge point total advantage through bonus points when 1-4 ranked wrestlers contest 8-32 in total points...how many of the psu points were the results of going into the match with this in their favor?...with us having many more highly ranked members now that advantage declines by how many points? And we gain how many?..................

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

Whoever goes at 141 I think is a semi final contender. WS likes proof of purchase so always going to rank guys who haven’t wrestled as much lower.

Norman with so much potential to make a splash at 174 to pick up a few more.

Even if we see Berge improve significantly in our room that’s gonna be a really tall order to break top 4 at 184.

Ross as a true freshman national champ heavy sure is something and I’m here for it but woof.

The really cool thing about this lineup and the hype is that there’s only two seniors with TS and BB.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

....there is a huge point total advantage through bonus points when 1-4 ranked wrestlers contest 8-32 in total points...how many of the psu points were the results of going into the match with this in their favor?...with us having many more highly ranked members now that advantage declines by how many points? And we gain how many?..................

Let's start with some numbers.

Based on their seeds last year, PSU was expected to score 26 bonus points. They actually scored 40.5 bonus points.
Based on their seeds last year, OSU was expected to score 16 bonus points. They actually scored 20.5 bonus points.

Both teams exceeded expectations, but PSU exceeded by more, turning a 10 point expected edge into a 20 point actual edge.

There are a couple of ways to interpret those numbers. PSU was clearly an extreme outlier. Outliers are either a.) there for a reason, or b.) they are ripe for mean reversion. My guess is that PSU will have some (modest) mean reversion, but will still rest firmly in the outlier range. For OSU to catch them on bonus points they will need both better seeds and better bonus rate relative to seeds than last year. Without studying it (yet) my guess is that wrestlers tend to score more bonus with more experience. If so, it is reasonable to expect more bonus points out of last year's crop of OSU freshmen now that they are sophomores.

 

[Air_Thurman]

I don't think we catch PSU this year. That being said, depending on how the lineup shakes it out, it doesn't take a homer to say it could be 5-5. You can argue we are better at 133, 141, 149, 157, HWT (again depending on how the lineup shakes out). To catch up, guys like Vega, Rob, and probably Ross have to be bonus hammers. PSU ability to rack up bonus is where it becomes daunting. You also need PSU to continue to struggle at 141 and heavy. I think 165 is very weak so Dee being the second best guy at that weight would be big.

For the first time in a while, if we dualed PSU this year, I think we could win. Not saying we would but it would be a heck of a dual on paper.

 

[Howie_Fartz]

Last year we had 4 finalists. Troy is a past finalist. Dee has more upside than anyone else at 165. 6 finalists isnt shocking. JD picking Ross to win it all is wild but I mean, cmon, its that DT factor!

If we roll the right ten guys into ST Louis healthy I promise you its gonna be way closer than any psu fan wants to think about.

 

[Howie_Fartz]

JD already has you with 7 in the finals which is crazy. You would need to place higher at 141 184 and have penn st not have a great tournament. Would need Luke to not make the finals have them low AA at 141 and Mirasola 4th. You would also need to have 6 in the finals probably and have everyone AA

Ok look at WS instead. They have us 48 behind psu. Between Norman, Berge and Ross (unranked) they have us w/ 4 points total. I could easily see us gaining 30-35 points or more getting us within around 15 points in the team race. WS has Dee and Merrill taking 4th. If they finish higher along with 41 its a race!

 

[Corby2]

Ok look at WS instead. They have us 48 behind psu. Between Norman, Berge and Ross (unranked) they have us w/ 4 points total. I could easily see us gaining 30-35 points or more getting us within around 15 points in the team race. WS has Dee and Merrill taking 4th. If they finish higher along with 41 its a race!

WS has Penn st with not many points at 141 174 and HWT Cole 7th. 141 they definitely score more then WS thinks and 174 Levi could be back depending on the courts and if not someone will be better than 15th . And hwt I think Connor is the guy and will be better than 7th. So Penn st has a few weights scored low as well. I think it's still Penn st by 40 or so this year maybe 30 but I don't see it closer than that

 

[chasepollard]

WS has Penn st with not many points at 141 174 and HWT Cole 7th. 141 they definitely score more then WS thinks and 174 Levi could be back depending on the courts and if not someone will be better than 15th . And hwt I think Connor is the guy and will be better than 7th. So Penn st has a few weights scored low as well. I think it's still Penn st by 40 or so this year maybe 30 but I don't see it closer than that

Even if Haines isn’t back, James is a full-grown man.

 

[ionel]

Even if Haines isn’t back, James is a full-grown man.

But he can be pinned correct?

 

[oberebo]

Way too early but for what it is worth my top 4 finishers at Nationals.
125 1. Lilledahl 2. Robinson 3. Spratley 4. Volk
133 1. Forrest 2. Davino 3. Seidel 4. Blaze
141 1. Bassett 2. Stanich 3. Frost 4. Raney/Jamison
149 1. Vega 2. Joy 3 Henson 4. Van Ness
157 1. Robideau 2. Taylor 3. Webster 4. Cardenas ( I see RS for Duke)
165 1. Messenbrink 2. Ruiz 3. Lockett 4. Blaze
174 1. Jayden James 2. Minto 3.Mantanona 4. Lorenzo Norman
184 1. McEnelly 2. Welsh 3. Ferrari 4. Berge
197 1. Barr 2. Merrill 3. Little 4. Rademacher
285 1. Ross 2. Mirasola 3. Kueter 4. Feldman
I would not bet that I am right at any weight except of course, at 165 as MVP Messenbrink will win it. I would not wager on OK State having 10 AA's either but my orange vision says we will. I would bet that Penn State will win the team title much as I hate to say it but it will be closer and a prelude to a team title in 2028 for the Cowboys.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Confirmed. Wrestlers tend to increase their bonus point production as they age....to a point. That point being their fourth attempt. There is a slight decrease in bonus points for those who had a fifth bite at the apple.

This is the average bonus point production for all wrestlers who participated in 4 or 5 tournaments between 2006 and 2026.



The biggest jump (23%) happens from the first to the second tournament.

 

[alephpoke]

WS has Penn st with not many points at 141 174 and HWT Cole 7th. 141 they definitely score more then WS thinks and 174 Levi could be back depending on the courts and if not someone will be better than 15th . And hwt I think Connor is the guy and will be better than 7th. So Penn st has a few weights scored low as well. I think it's still Penn st by 40 or so this year maybe 30 but I don't see it closer than that

Are your extra points at 141 from projecting Ono to be the starter? Because WS already has Nate Desmond at #6. I have no clue what to expect from him up at that weight, the only match I’ve seen from him at 141 was against a washed-up Ragusin and he looked unimpressive. An obvious caveat that he didn’t have time to grow into the weight last season after previously being down at 125 though

 

[ionel]

I would not bet that I am right at any weight except of course, at 165 as MVP Messenbrink will win it.

Messenbrink will not win it this year. I'll go all in and bet the farm on it ... he doesn't win ... mark my words.

 

[Corby2]

Are your extra points at 141 from projecting Ono to be the starter? Because WS already has Nate Desmond at #6. I have no clue what to expect from him up at that weight, the only match I’ve seen from him at 141 was against a washed-up Ragusin and he looked unimpressive. An obvious caveat that he didn’t have time to grow into the weight last season after previously being down at 125 though

Ono was who I was figuring.

 

[Corby2]

Messenbrink will not win it this year. I'll go all in and bet the farm on it ... he doesn't win ... mark my words.

Who's gonna beat him? Blaze? And it's 1 S

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Who's gonna beat him? Blaze?

 

[okokzach]

I don't think we catch PSU this year. That being said, depending on how the lineup shakes it out, it doesn't take a homer to say it could be 5-5. You can argue we are better at 133, 141, 149, 157, HWT (again depending on how the lineup shakes out). To catch up, guys like Vega, Rob, and probably Ross have to be bonus hammers. PSU ability to rack up bonus is where it becomes daunting. You also need PSU to continue to struggle at 141 and heavy. I think 165 is very weak so Dee being the second best guy at that weight would be big.

For the first time in a while, if we dualed PSU this year, I think we could win. Not saying we would but it would be a heck of a dual on paper.

Last year we could've won in a dual as well. Favorites at 133, 141, 157, and 285. 149 was a tossup. Swiderski wins and it's 5-5. Sergio pins Braeden Davis to give us the bonus advantage. Not likely, but possible.

 

[ionel]

.

 

[ionel]

Who's gonna beat him? Blaze? And it's 1 S

Don't listen to the knownothing just put up your money and then I'll explain.

 

[okokzach]

Even if Haines isn’t back, James is a full-grown man.

Not at 174 he isn't.

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

Don't listen to the knownothing just put up your money and then I'll explain.

I will bet you $1 just to hear this explanation.

 

[ionel]

I will bet you $1 just to hear this explanation.

Ok I'm good with the $1 but need to wait to see if Corby will call my all farm bet.

 

[Corby2]

Ok I'm good with the $1 but need to wait to see if Corby will call my all farm bet.

I already said it's not spelled with two S in it . So Messenbrink isn't gonna win or lose . But Mesenbrink will win another title. How much we betting?

 

[ionel]

I already said it's not spelled with two S in it . So Messenbrink isn't gonna win or lose . But Mesenbrink will win another title. How much we betting?

I'm not betting against the one S kid. Think WKN owes me something for the heads up on the trap ... maybe a chicken coup ... dont have one of them on my farm.

I will bet you $1 just to hear this explanation.

Chase you owe me a buck, there's no wrestler named Messenbrink in D1. Corby chickened out. I'll collect at NDI you can buy me something at concessions. Wait ... you can't buy anything for a buck these days. Bring me a stick of gum and we'll call it even.

 

[Corby2]

I'm not betting against the one S kid. Think WKN owes me something for the heads up on the trap ... maybe a chicken coup ... dont have one of them on my farm.


Chase you owe me a buck, there's no wrestler named Messenbrink in D1. Corby chickened out. I'll collect at NDI you can buy me something at concessions. Wait ... you can't buy anything for a buck these days. Bring me a stick of gum and we'll call it even.

My brain goes so fast I never catch spelling errors that I read or make . You think Forest wins again?