By Thomas L. Friedman
Opinion Columnist
Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin are drastically different men, but they do have one important thing in common: Each thinks he is the smartest person in any room he enters. Alas, though, because they have all done the dumbest thing you can do as a leader — surround yourself with sycophants — they have all blundered into dead-end wars from which they can extricate themselves today only by eating a banquet of crow.
Watch out. There is nothing more dangerous than a reckless leader faced with a plate of crow: Sometimes his instinct is to double down on a losing strategy instead.
Let’s start with the Israeli prime minister. The tell that Netanyahu has gone off the rails — and taken the leadership of the famed Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad, with him — is reflected in two decisions he made that were flat-out crazy: The first is that Israel could topple the Tehran regime with one big blow from the air, and the second was that it could choose Iran’s new leader.
Before I explain just how crazy that was, some quick background: Ever since I saw up close how the Lebanese Christian militia, the Phalangists, helped sucker the Mossad in 1982 into thinking that through a quick invasion Israel could install the Phalangists’ anti-Palestinian leader, Bashir Gemayel, as president in Beirut, I have held the following rule when it comes to the vaunted Israeli intelligence service: If you want someone assassinated in Beirut or Tehran, call the Mossad. If you want to understand political and social trends in Beirut or Tehran, do not call the Mossad. Because the very reason it is good at the first also leads it to be bad at the second.
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The Mossad is very good at hunting and killing Israel’s foes, in large part because it is very skilled at recruiting disgruntled citizens in Lebanon, Iran, the West Bank and elsewhere in the Arab world — that is, people who hate their regimes and are willing to work with Israel to topple them. The problem is that these very same agents, motivated either by grievance or money, tend to exaggerate how weak their regime is and how easy bringing it down would be.
They want Israel to do the dirty work for them. The result is that a dupe like Trump, who doesn’t know any history, assumes that because the Mossad is good at assassinating people, it is equally good at predicting what will happen the morning after they are dead.
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That explains why, after the White House meeting in February when Netanyahu and the Mossad’s director at the time, David Barnea, essentially argued that if Israel and the United States assassinated Iran’s top leaders, the government would fall and nice people would take over, Trump did not laugh them out of the room. The president apparently assumed that because the Mossad had super assassination powers it also had super analytical powers, and therefore Iran would tumble into his lap the same way Venezuela did when the U.S. removed its president, Nicolás Maduro.
As my colleagues Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan reported in their must-read book, “Regime Change,” C.I.A. director John Ratcliffe used one word to describe Netanyahu’s Iran regime change scenarios: “farcical.” Trump, confident that he knew better, ignored him and others — and has been paying the price ever since.
The even bigger tell that both Netanyahu and his intelligence agency had become drunk with power was another incredible story The Times uncovered: that Mossad had been grooming former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to take over Iran after the government of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was wiped out. As my colleagues reported: “Israel’s decision to build a regime-change plan around Mr. Ahmadinejad is an extraordinary twist in the saga of the country’s relations with the former president, who was known for accelerating Iran’s nuclear program, calling regularly for the destruction of Israel and denying the Holocaust.”
Hello, Israel? Do you know anything about modern Iranian history? Have you ever heard of Mohammad Mossadegh? He was the democratically elected prime minister of Iran from 1951 to 1953 who was ousted by a coup engineered by the C.I.A. and Britain’s MI6 after Iran nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Fury over that coup, which installed the West’s man in Tehran, still burns in the heart of many Iranians.
The sheer madness that Israel thought it could install Ahmadinejad — and that the Iranian body politic would not reject him the way a human body rejects an organ implant — is insane. Did Netanyahu and the Mossad really think that proud, nationalistic Iranians, even those who hate the clerics governing them, would say: “Oh, thank you, Bibi, for installing our next leader?” The vanity and overreach in thinking that 7.2 million Israeli Jews could decide who would rule more than 90 million Iranian Muslims is astounding.
Trump and Netanyahu are in good company with Putin, who drank his own Kool-Aid by assuming that Ukrainians were all dying to become part of Mother Russia again and that the democratically elected regime in Kyiv would easily fall.
“Putin’s most fundamental error was believing his own narrative that Ukrainians and Russians were ‘one people’ and that Ukrainian independence was merely an artificial Western construct,” Robbin Laird, a military analyst, noted last year. “This ideological blind spot led him to expect that Russian forces would be welcomed as liberators.”
In a perfect echo of what happened in Iran, Russian intelligence appeared to have relied too heavily “on pro-Russian sources who told Moscow what it wanted to hear,” Laird said, “rather than providing accurate ground truth about Ukrainian sentiment and capabilities.”
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Opinion Columnist
Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin are drastically different men, but they do have one important thing in common: Each thinks he is the smartest person in any room he enters. Alas, though, because they have all done the dumbest thing you can do as a leader — surround yourself with sycophants — they have all blundered into dead-end wars from which they can extricate themselves today only by eating a banquet of crow.
Watch out. There is nothing more dangerous than a reckless leader faced with a plate of crow: Sometimes his instinct is to double down on a losing strategy instead.
Let’s start with the Israeli prime minister. The tell that Netanyahu has gone off the rails — and taken the leadership of the famed Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad, with him — is reflected in two decisions he made that were flat-out crazy: The first is that Israel could topple the Tehran regime with one big blow from the air, and the second was that it could choose Iran’s new leader.
Before I explain just how crazy that was, some quick background: Ever since I saw up close how the Lebanese Christian militia, the Phalangists, helped sucker the Mossad in 1982 into thinking that through a quick invasion Israel could install the Phalangists’ anti-Palestinian leader, Bashir Gemayel, as president in Beirut, I have held the following rule when it comes to the vaunted Israeli intelligence service: If you want someone assassinated in Beirut or Tehran, call the Mossad. If you want to understand political and social trends in Beirut or Tehran, do not call the Mossad. Because the very reason it is good at the first also leads it to be bad at the second.
Advertisement
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The Mossad is very good at hunting and killing Israel’s foes, in large part because it is very skilled at recruiting disgruntled citizens in Lebanon, Iran, the West Bank and elsewhere in the Arab world — that is, people who hate their regimes and are willing to work with Israel to topple them. The problem is that these very same agents, motivated either by grievance or money, tend to exaggerate how weak their regime is and how easy bringing it down would be.
They want Israel to do the dirty work for them. The result is that a dupe like Trump, who doesn’t know any history, assumes that because the Mossad is good at assassinating people, it is equally good at predicting what will happen the morning after they are dead.
Sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world every weekday morning. Get it sent to your inbox.
That explains why, after the White House meeting in February when Netanyahu and the Mossad’s director at the time, David Barnea, essentially argued that if Israel and the United States assassinated Iran’s top leaders, the government would fall and nice people would take over, Trump did not laugh them out of the room. The president apparently assumed that because the Mossad had super assassination powers it also had super analytical powers, and therefore Iran would tumble into his lap the same way Venezuela did when the U.S. removed its president, Nicolás Maduro.
As my colleagues Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan reported in their must-read book, “Regime Change,” C.I.A. director John Ratcliffe used one word to describe Netanyahu’s Iran regime change scenarios: “farcical.” Trump, confident that he knew better, ignored him and others — and has been paying the price ever since.
The even bigger tell that both Netanyahu and his intelligence agency had become drunk with power was another incredible story The Times uncovered: that Mossad had been grooming former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to take over Iran after the government of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was wiped out. As my colleagues reported: “Israel’s decision to build a regime-change plan around Mr. Ahmadinejad is an extraordinary twist in the saga of the country’s relations with the former president, who was known for accelerating Iran’s nuclear program, calling regularly for the destruction of Israel and denying the Holocaust.”
Hello, Israel? Do you know anything about modern Iranian history? Have you ever heard of Mohammad Mossadegh? He was the democratically elected prime minister of Iran from 1951 to 1953 who was ousted by a coup engineered by the C.I.A. and Britain’s MI6 after Iran nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Fury over that coup, which installed the West’s man in Tehran, still burns in the heart of many Iranians.
The sheer madness that Israel thought it could install Ahmadinejad — and that the Iranian body politic would not reject him the way a human body rejects an organ implant — is insane. Did Netanyahu and the Mossad really think that proud, nationalistic Iranians, even those who hate the clerics governing them, would say: “Oh, thank you, Bibi, for installing our next leader?” The vanity and overreach in thinking that 7.2 million Israeli Jews could decide who would rule more than 90 million Iranian Muslims is astounding.
Trump and Netanyahu are in good company with Putin, who drank his own Kool-Aid by assuming that Ukrainians were all dying to become part of Mother Russia again and that the democratically elected regime in Kyiv would easily fall.
“Putin’s most fundamental error was believing his own narrative that Ukrainians and Russians were ‘one people’ and that Ukrainian independence was merely an artificial Western construct,” Robbin Laird, a military analyst, noted last year. “This ideological blind spot led him to expect that Russian forces would be welcomed as liberators.”
In a perfect echo of what happened in Iran, Russian intelligence appeared to have relied too heavily “on pro-Russian sources who told Moscow what it wanted to hear,” Laird said, “rather than providing accurate ground truth about Ukrainian sentiment and capabilities.”
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