Historical Game Proof (HGP) v1.0 - Extremely Flawed

[Im The Village Idiot]

In this thread, I’ll simply post teams’ game by game Historical Game Proof (HGP) rating. HGP is a rating that considers stage, expected margin, road/home/neutral and performance versus the expected margin. I can explain this further to anyone who cares, or anyone who wants to know the difference between this and SRS. I’ll always use this thread for this metric.




KENTUCKY MEN’S BASKETBALL — AVERAGE HGP RANKINGS, 1950–2026

1. 1953–54 Kentucky — 0.9492
2. 1965–66 Kentucky — 0.8476
3. 2014–15 Kentucky — 0.8352
4. 2009–10 Kentucky — 0.8199
5. 1969–70 Kentucky — 0.8088
6. 1950–51 Kentucky — 0.7946
7. 2002–03 Kentucky — 0.7894
8. 1985–86 Kentucky — 0.7864
9. 2011–12 Kentucky — 0.7848
10. 1990–91 Kentucky — 0.7628
11. 2003–04 Kentucky — 0.7576
12. 2004–05 Kentucky — 0.7565
13. 1977–78 Kentucky — 0.7500
14. 1983–84 Kentucky — 0.7419
15. 1991–92 Kentucky — 0.7380
16. 1995–96 Kentucky — 0.7326
17. 2016–17 Kentucky — 0.7251
18. 1979–80 Kentucky — 0.7120
19. 1993–94 Kentucky — 0.7057
20. 1997–98 Kentucky — 0.7056
21. 1987–88 Kentucky — 0.7006
22. 1992–93 Kentucky — 0.6877
23. 1958–59 Kentucky — 0.6848
24. 2021–22 Kentucky — 0.6813
25. 1986–87 Kentucky — 0.6803
26. 1981–82 Kentucky — 0.6744
27. 1951–52 Kentucky — 0.6654
28. 1980–81 Kentucky — 0.6554
29. 2023–24 Kentucky — 0.6469
30. 1949–50 Kentucky — 0.6425
31. 1961–62 Kentucky — 0.6390
32. 1994–95 Kentucky — 0.6348
33. 2015–16 Kentucky — 0.6329
34. 1974–75 Kentucky — 0.6249
35. 1996–97 Kentucky — 0.6233
36. 1982–83 Kentucky — 0.6157
37. 1954–55 Kentucky — 0.6146
38. 2010–11 Kentucky — 0.6120
39. 1999–00 Kentucky — 0.6060
40. 2025–26 Kentucky — 0.6029
41. 2024–25 Kentucky — 0.5947
42. 2019–20 Kentucky — 0.5931
43. 2022–23 Kentucky — 0.5917
44. 2005–06 Kentucky — 0.5905
45. 2013–14 Kentucky — 0.5854
46. 2007–08 Kentucky — 0.5852
47. 1976–77 Kentucky — 0.5816
48. 2006–07 Kentucky — 0.5667
49. 2018–19 Kentucky — 0.5619
50. 1998–99 Kentucky — 0.5605
51. 2000–01 Kentucky — 0.5497
52. 2012–13 Kentucky — 0.5468
53. 2001–02 Kentucky — 0.5405
54. 1967–68 Kentucky — 0.5375
55. 1968–69 Kentucky — 0.5333
56. 1984–85 Kentucky — 0.5170
57. 1956–57 Kentucky — 0.5021
58. 1957–58 Kentucky — 0.4981
59. 1978–79 Kentucky — 0.4954
60. 2008–09 Kentucky — 0.4804
61. 2020–21 Kentucky — 0.4695
62. 1970–71 Kentucky — 0.4620
63. 1989–90 Kentucky — 0.4602
64. 1959–60 Kentucky — 0.4173
65. 1971–72 Kentucky — 0.4142
66. 2017–18 Kentucky — 0.4138
67. 1955–56 Kentucky — 0.4034
68. 1963–64 Kentucky — 0.3858
69. 1988–89 Kentucky — 0.3607
70. 1972–73 Kentucky — 0.3491
71. 1975–76 Kentucky — 0.3392
72. 1960–61 Kentucky — 0.2446
73. 1964–65 Kentucky — 0.1370
74. 1962–63 Kentucky — 0.0740
75. 1973–74 Kentucky — -0.0734
76. 1966–67 Kentucky — -0.2061
    
    
    (THESE ARE NOT MY PERSONAL RANKINGS OF THESE TEAMS. THIS IS AN UNBIASED METRIC).

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

2026 Kentucky HGP Profile


2025 Kentucky HGP Profile


2024 Kentucky HGP Profile


2023 Kentucky HGP Profile


2022 Kentucky HGP Profile


2021 Kentucky HGP Profile


2020 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

2019 Kentucky HGP Profile


2018 Kentucky HGP Profile


2017 Kentucky HGP Profile


2016 Kentucky HGP Profile


2015 Kentucky HGP Profile


2014 Kentucky HGP Profile


2013 Kentucky HGP Profile


2012 Kentucky HGP Profile


2011 Kentucky HGP Profile


2010 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

2009 Kentucky HGP Profile


2008 Kentucky HGP Profile


2007 Kentucky HGP Profile


2006 Kentucky HGP Profile


2005 Kentucky HGP Profile


2004 Kentucky HGP Profile


2003 Kentucky HGP Profile


2002 Kentucky HGP Profile


2001 Kentucky HGP Profile


2000 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[FactsOrOpinions]

Nobody wants to know stupid idiot

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

1999 Kentucky HGP Profile


1998 Kentucky HGP Profile


1997 Kentucky HGP Profile


1996 Kentucky HGP Profile


1995 Kentucky HGP Profile


1994 Kentucky HGP Profile


1993 Kentucky HGP Profile


1992 Kentucky HGP Profile


1991 Kentucky HGP Profile


1990 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

1989 Kentucky HGP Profile


1988 Kentucky HGP Profile


1987 Kentucky HGP Profile


1986 Kentucky HGP Profile


1985 Kentucky HGP Profile


1984 Kentucky HGP Profile


1983 Kentucky HGP Profile


1982 Kentucky HGP Profile


1981 Kentucky HGP Profile


1980 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

1979 Kentucky HGP Profile


1978 Kentucky HGP Profile


1977 Kentucky HGP Profile


1976 Kentucky HGP Profile


1975 Kentucky HGP Profile


1974 Kentucky HGP Profile


1973 Kentucky HGP Profile


1972 Kentucky HGP Profile


1971 Kentucky HGP Profile


1970 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

1969 Kentucky HGP Profile


1968 Kentucky HGP Profile


1967 Kentucky HGP Profile


1966 Kentucky HGP Profile


1965 Kentucky HGP Profile


1964 Kentucky HGP Profile


1963 Kentucky HGP Profile


1962 Kentucky HGP Profile


1961 Kentucky HGP Profile


1960 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[CatBearPig]

Man I appreciate your work here but it would help if anyone knew what this meant or if it was presented in a more easily digested format. Just a suggestion, again, not pissing on your work.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Man I appreciate your work here but it would help if anyone knew what this meant or if it was presented in a more easily digested format. Just a suggestion, again, not pissing on your work.

AI summary explanation:

HGP — Historical Game Proof

HGP is a simple way to measure what a college basketball team actually proved through the games it played.

Instead of judging a team only by its record, ranking, or reputation, HGP looks at every game individually. It considers the strength of the opponent, where the game was played, whether the team won or lost, the margin of the result, and how difficult the performance was.

A road win over a strong opponent is worth much more than an easy home win over a weak opponent. A close loss to an elite team may do very little damage, while a bad loss to a weak team can hurt significantly. Blowout margins matter, but they are capped so teams are not rewarded excessively for running up the score.

The value of HGP is that it gives context to a team’s record. Two teams may both finish 25–8, but one may have faced a much harder schedule, earned better wins, avoided damaging losses, and consistently performed at a higher level. HGP helps reveal that difference.

How to read it:

A higher HGP means the team proved more through its game results.

A score near 0.00 represents roughly average Division I performance within that season.

A positive score means the team performed above average.

A negative score means the team performed below average.

The farther a score moves above or below zero, the stronger the difference becomes.

HGP is not meant to measure popularity, preseason expectations, poll reputation, tournament seed, or historical prestige. It focuses only on the evidence produced during games.

In the simplest terms:

HGP asks who you played, where you played, and what you did—and turns those results into one understandable number.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

I’ll add: the best way for team comparisons is HBP average. I’ll be revealing that next.

Reason for that is cumulative HBP isn’t analogous 1:1 for all teams, since every team played a different amount of games. For now, consider everything I’ve provided to simply be reference material.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

1959 Kentucky HGP Profile


1958 Kentucky HGP Profile


1957 Kentucky HGP Profile


1956 Kentucky HGP Profile


1955 Kentucky HGP Profile


1954 Kentucky HGP Profile


1952 Kentucky HGP Profile


1951 Kentucky HGP Profile


1950 Kentucky HGP Profile

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

KENTUCKY MEN’S BASKETBALL — AVERAGE HGP RANKINGS, 1950–2026

1. 1953–54 Kentucky — 0.9492
2. 1965–66 Kentucky — 0.8476
3. 2014–15 Kentucky — 0.8352
4. 2009–10 Kentucky — 0.8199
5. 1969–70 Kentucky — 0.8088
6. 1950–51 Kentucky — 0.7946
7. 2002–03 Kentucky — 0.7894
8. 1985–86 Kentucky — 0.7864
9. 2011–12 Kentucky — 0.7848
10. 1990–91 Kentucky — 0.7628
11. 2003–04 Kentucky — 0.7576
12. 2004–05 Kentucky — 0.7565
13. 1977–78 Kentucky — 0.7500
14. 1983–84 Kentucky — 0.7419
15. 1991–92 Kentucky — 0.7380
16. 1995–96 Kentucky — 0.7326
17. 2016–17 Kentucky — 0.7251
18. 1979–80 Kentucky — 0.7120
19. 1993–94 Kentucky — 0.7057
20. 1997–98 Kentucky — 0.7056
21. 1987–88 Kentucky — 0.7006
22. 1992–93 Kentucky — 0.6877
23. 1958–59 Kentucky — 0.6848
24. 2021–22 Kentucky — 0.6813
25. 1986–87 Kentucky — 0.6803
26. 1981–82 Kentucky — 0.6744
27. 1951–52 Kentucky — 0.6654
28. 1980–81 Kentucky — 0.6554
29. 2023–24 Kentucky — 0.6469
30. 1949–50 Kentucky — 0.6425
31. 1961–62 Kentucky — 0.6390
32. 1994–95 Kentucky — 0.6348
33. 2015–16 Kentucky — 0.6329
34. 1974–75 Kentucky — 0.6249
35. 1996–97 Kentucky — 0.6233
36. 1982–83 Kentucky — 0.6157
37. 1954–55 Kentucky — 0.6146
38. 2010–11 Kentucky — 0.6120
39. 1999–00 Kentucky — 0.6060
40. 2025–26 Kentucky — 0.6029
41. 2024–25 Kentucky — 0.5947
42. 2019–20 Kentucky — 0.5931
43. 2022–23 Kentucky — 0.5917
44. 2005–06 Kentucky — 0.5905
45. 2013–14 Kentucky — 0.5854
46. 2007–08 Kentucky — 0.5852
47. 1976–77 Kentucky — 0.5816
48. 2006–07 Kentucky — 0.5667
49. 2018–19 Kentucky — 0.5619
50. 1998–99 Kentucky — 0.5605
51. 2000–01 Kentucky — 0.5497
52. 2012–13 Kentucky — 0.5468
53. 2001–02 Kentucky — 0.5405
54. 1967–68 Kentucky — 0.5375
55. 1968–69 Kentucky — 0.5333
56. 1984–85 Kentucky — 0.5170
57. 1956–57 Kentucky — 0.5021
58. 1957–58 Kentucky — 0.4981
59. 1978–79 Kentucky — 0.4954
60. 2008–09 Kentucky — 0.4804
61. 2020–21 Kentucky — 0.4695
62. 1970–71 Kentucky — 0.4620
63. 1989–90 Kentucky — 0.4602
64. 1959–60 Kentucky — 0.4173
65. 1971–72 Kentucky — 0.4142
66. 2017–18 Kentucky — 0.4138
67. 1955–56 Kentucky — 0.4034
68. 1963–64 Kentucky — 0.3858
69. 1988–89 Kentucky — 0.3607
70. 1972–73 Kentucky — 0.3491
71. 1975–76 Kentucky — 0.3392
72. 1960–61 Kentucky — 0.2446
73. 1964–65 Kentucky — 0.1370
74. 1962–63 Kentucky — 0.0740
75. 1973–74 Kentucky — -0.0734
76. 1966–67 Kentucky — -0.2061
    
    
    (THESE ARE NOT MY PERSONAL RANKINGS OF THESE TEAMS. THIS IS AN UNBIASED METRIC).

 

[mhs1964]

It is easy to see why many of us who started following the Cats starting with the 58 champions don’t expect a final four every three years or so. Those sixties were brutal apart from 66 which was heartbreaking

 

[FactsOrOpinions]

Respect the effort you put into this

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

@Im The Village Idiot 40 and 41 surprised me. Based on what you said the metrics used here, I can’t square that up.

 

[*Fox2Monk*]

In this thread, I’ll simply post teams’ game by game Historical Game Proof (HGP) rating. HGP is a rating that considers stage, expected margin, road/home/neutral and performance versus the expected margin. I can explain this further to anyone who cares, or anyone who wants to know the difference between this and SRS. I’ll always use this thread for this metric.




KENTUCKY MEN’S BASKETBALL — AVERAGE HGP RANKINGS, 1950–2026

1. 1953–54 Kentucky — 0.9492
2. 1965–66 Kentucky — 0.8476
3. 2014–15 Kentucky — 0.8352
4. 2009–10 Kentucky — 0.8199
5. 1969–70 Kentucky — 0.8088
6. 1950–51 Kentucky — 0.7946
7. 2002–03 Kentucky — 0.7894
8. 1985–86 Kentucky — 0.7864
9. 2011–12 Kentucky — 0.7848
10. 1990–91 Kentucky — 0.7628
11. 2003–04 Kentucky — 0.7576
12. 2004–05 Kentucky — 0.7565
13. 1977–78 Kentucky — 0.7500
14. 1983–84 Kentucky — 0.7419
15. 1991–92 Kentucky — 0.7380
16. 1995–96 Kentucky — 0.7326
17. 2016–17 Kentucky — 0.7251
18. 1979–80 Kentucky — 0.7120
19. 1993–94 Kentucky — 0.7057
20. 1997–98 Kentucky — 0.7056
21. 1987–88 Kentucky — 0.7006
22. 1992–93 Kentucky — 0.6877
23. 1958–59 Kentucky — 0.6848
24. 2021–22 Kentucky — 0.6813
25. 1986–87 Kentucky — 0.6803
26. 1981–82 Kentucky — 0.6744
27. 1951–52 Kentucky — 0.6654
28. 1980–81 Kentucky — 0.6554
29. 2023–24 Kentucky — 0.6469
30. 1949–50 Kentucky — 0.6425
31. 1961–62 Kentucky — 0.6390
32. 1994–95 Kentucky — 0.6348
33. 2015–16 Kentucky — 0.6329
34. 1974–75 Kentucky — 0.6249
35. 1996–97 Kentucky — 0.6233
36. 1982–83 Kentucky — 0.6157
37. 1954–55 Kentucky — 0.6146
38. 2010–11 Kentucky — 0.6120
39. 1999–00 Kentucky — 0.6060
40. 2025–26 Kentucky — 0.6029
41. 2024–25 Kentucky — 0.5947
42. 2019–20 Kentucky — 0.5931
43. 2022–23 Kentucky — 0.5917
44. 2005–06 Kentucky — 0.5905
45. 2013–14 Kentucky — 0.5854
46. 2007–08 Kentucky — 0.5852
47. 1976–77 Kentucky — 0.5816
48. 2006–07 Kentucky — 0.5667
49. 2018–19 Kentucky — 0.5619
50. 1998–99 Kentucky — 0.5605
51. 2000–01 Kentucky — 0.5497
52. 2012–13 Kentucky — 0.5468
53. 2001–02 Kentucky — 0.5405
54. 1967–68 Kentucky — 0.5375
55. 1968–69 Kentucky — 0.5333
56. 1984–85 Kentucky — 0.5170
57. 1956–57 Kentucky — 0.5021
58. 1957–58 Kentucky — 0.4981
59. 1978–79 Kentucky — 0.4954
60. 2008–09 Kentucky — 0.4804
61. 2020–21 Kentucky — 0.4695
62. 1970–71 Kentucky — 0.4620
63. 1989–90 Kentucky — 0.4602
64. 1959–60 Kentucky — 0.4173
65. 1971–72 Kentucky — 0.4142
66. 2017–18 Kentucky — 0.4138
67. 1955–56 Kentucky — 0.4034
68. 1963–64 Kentucky — 0.3858
69. 1988–89 Kentucky — 0.3607
70. 1972–73 Kentucky — 0.3491
71. 1975–76 Kentucky — 0.3392
72. 1960–61 Kentucky — 0.2446
73. 1964–65 Kentucky — 0.1370
74. 1962–63 Kentucky — 0.0740
75. 1973–74 Kentucky — -0.0734
76. 1966–67 Kentucky — -0.2061
    
    
    (THESE ARE NOT MY PERSONAL RANKINGS OF THESE TEAMS. THIS IS AN UNBIASED METRIC).

Kinda odd how consistent Pope’s teams have been so far. 40-41.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

@Im The Village Idiot 40 and 41 surprised me. Based on what you said the metrics used here, I can’t square that up.

Yeah these aren't my opinions and aren't how I'd evaluate these teams. This is a single metric based on their SOS, how they performed against it, the road/away/neutral environment and the stage they performed on. It isn't a list of best-worst teams.

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

Yeah these aren't my opinions and aren't how I'd evaluate these teams. This is a single metric based on their SOS, how they performed against it, the road/away/neutral environment and the stage they performed on. It isn't a list of best-worst teams.

Oh I’m not blaming you my friend. I just don’t see it.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

The '96 team at 16 is a serious head scratcher. '91 and '92 ahead of '96 for example. No offense to what you are trying to do here but in all honesty this list has a lot that just doesn't seem right to me.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

The '96 team at 16 is a serious head scratcher. '91 and '92 ahead of '96 for example. No offense to what you are trying to do here but in all honesty this list has a lot that just doesn't seem right to me.

It’s just nerd numbers.

 

[The Nightman2]

It’s just nerd numbers.

Just say you dont understand lol

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Oh I’m not blaming you my friend. I just don’t see it.

The '96 team at 16 is a serious head scratcher. '91 and '92 ahead of '96 for example. No offense to what you are trying to do here but in all honesty this list has a lot that just doesn't seem right to me.

Yeah. There’s a serious flaw in the formula on this. That’s very clear. Deciding whether to revise or just throw it out. Complete clunker. The point of it wasn’t to compare greatness, the point was to measure historic greatness versus schedule and circumstances and stage, but there are glaring problems far beyond the 1996 example. That one is clearly the most egregious though.

It’s just nerd numbers.

Simple. Don’t engage with the type of things you don’t like.