Pope's SOS and performance so far at UK

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

I believe many things can be true at once:

- Yes, I believe it is easier to win at Kentucky with elite resources. That’s why comparing early career winning percentages is faulty.

- It is also true that Kentucky is playing historically difficult schedules over the last couple of seasons and that has to be considered when we grade out seasons. It is easier to win at Kentucky, broadly speaking, but the Kentucky schedule is a factor.

- NIL/Transfer portal gives Kentucky the ability to put together great rosters quickly, which is an advantage. However, Kentucky isn’t the only program who benefits from this. Our conference pre-NIL and transfer portal was middling relative to the Big 12 and ACC. Now? It is as strong as any conference there is. The transfer portal and NIL allow our opponents to put together better rosters than ever before. This means injuries and other factors have a potentially more damaging effect, since there’s less of a gap in talent.

- College basketball is also more optimized than it has ever been. When you start looking at general efficiency numbers across the CBB landscape, I believe the sport is as talented and as proficient as it has been in my lifetime. This goes back to the earlier point that you don’t have as much room for error. Misevaluate a Jasper Johnson? That’s going to make it difficult. Misevaluate a Brandon Garrison? Now, you’re in a real pickle. Experience injuries to key players including your starting PG? Well, now you’re entirely up a creek without a paddle.

It is still debatable whether UK's resources are more of an advantage now than they were in the past. In order to believe comparing early career records is faulty would require that Smith and K for example were operating with a dearth of talent and were in situations that made it difficult to acquire talent in the beginning. I have demonstrated this not to be the case numerous times. You do rightly point out that others with tremendous resources are also operating under the same system.

The Herald Leader's report that we had the highest payroll and therefore implying we have the most resources is questionable. The LHL has a history of creating controversy for UK basketball and I still believe they were primarily responsible for the probation scandal of the late 80's.

 

[Dr.LutherSan]

To this point that is true but that does not foretell the future. Those of you who believe you know the future with certainty are clearly delusional. I have never claimed that he is destined for big success but that can not totally or reasonably be ruled out either.

Anything is possible, but he has a pretty large sample size that isn't promising for greatness.

If I drink milk and continue to get indigestion, there's a large possibility that the next time I drink milk that I will get indigestion.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Anything is possible, but he has a pretty large sample size that isn't promising for greatness.

If I drink milk and continue to get indigestion, there's a large possibility that the next time I drink milk that I will get indigestion.

I have numerous times shown you many coaches who have had great success including national championships that had no better success at this juncture of their careers than Pope has.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Anything is possible, but he has a pretty large sample size that isn't promising for greatness.

If I drink milk and continue to get indigestion, there's a large possibility that the next time I drink milk that I will get indigestion.

Sure, unless there was another contextual reason you got indigestion that goes beyond “it was the milk”. That’s the phase we are in with Pope. There are debatable reasons for the struggles at Kentucky that go beyond coaching malpractice. That’s why the honest take is that we simply don’t know.

And the past doesn’t always reliably predict the future. According to your logic, if we looked at the nine years of Mark Pope’s head coaching career pre-UK and hyper focused on the zero NCAA tournament wins, we could extrapolate that to say he is destined for a zero percent winning percentage there (tongue in cheek).

However, so far, even with catastrophic -level injuries, Pope has a 3-2 record so far in the NCAA tournament. It’s not where we want to be, but it looks significantly different than the pre-UK number. I think the record could also be a similar situation where his career winning percentage increases with more time here, even though the pre-UK number doesn’t stand out as “strong” by any means.

All of that remains to be seen. I just wish all of us would quit pretending to know — that’ll never happen of course. All Kentucky fans should be hoping for the best next year and we all differ on how likely it is. But that’s different than “everyone who doesn’t think Pope is the next HOF coach is a troll” and “everyone who thinks Pope needs more time is a Popette.”

 

[kyhankypanky]

I'm not about to claim Fox is anywhere near the coach those guys proved to be but if you insist on touting early careers I will add this.

First coaching jobs:

Mark Fox Nevada .741 winning percentage

Rick Pitino Hawaii (only 6 games) .333 winning percentage Boston U .641 winning percentage

John Calipari UMass .731 winning percentage

Coach K Army .553 winning percentage

Bob Knight Army .671 winning percentage

Gtfoh

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Gtfoh

That is your second response to that same post and it is totally devoid of substance.

 

[Dr.LutherSan]

I have numerous times shown you many coaches who have had great success including national championships that had no better success at this juncture of their careers than Pope has.

And I have told you numerous times that there are strong differences with those coaches that you mentioned.

 

[WildcatFanatic98]

I have numerous times shown you many coaches who have had great success including national championships that had no better success at this juncture of their careers than Pope has.

That's a logical fallacy.

Smoking isn't bad for you! My grandpa and my uncle both lived over 80 and they smoked their whole lives... /s

The vast majority of coaches with Pope's resume don't just magically turn into championship level.

Post better. Lose some weight while you're at it. You post like a fatty.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

And I have told you numerous times that there are strong differences with those coaches that you mentioned.

Based entirely on hindsight being 20/20. You could not have reasonably claimed that when they were at the same juncture of their career Pope is currently at. This really shouldn't be so difficult for you to comprehend.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

That's a logical fallacy.

Smoking isn't bad for you! My grandpa and my uncle both lived over 80 and they smoked their whole lives... /s

The vast majority of coaches with Pope's resume don't just magically turn into championship level.

Post better. Lose some weight while you're at it. You post like a fatty.

This is total nonsense and just a waste of time on your part. You should really try harder if you are going to bother at all. You have failed to make any sort of point at all with this effort. The only way you might have a point is if I was claiming it to be very likely that he goes on to a Hall of Fame career and I have never claimed anything close to that.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

When you’re reviewing a high school player’s potential you aren’t merely looking at the PPG, RPG, etc. You’re looking at the raw skills, the physicals, the mental intangibles, etc to determine a ceiling and a floor to build from. Mid major coaches are no different. The whole Cal-Pitino-Sampson-Hurley-Pope comparisons are ultimately futile because we lose the context that separates the nuances for each individual situation. The question for each of those guys is: is there a foundation to build from? With Coach K, his Army tenure had an embarrassingly poor cumulative winning percentage, but you have to consider that Army was a single digit win team when he got the job and was an independent school with limited recruiting appeal due to it being, well, Army. Not everyone can, or wants, to go to Army. For Pope, his cumulative win percentage at Utah Valley actually tanks his overall numbers. But it may have been his best coaching job — you have to consider the 11 win program it was and that the WAC was being steamrolled by New Mexico State. Pope built UVU quickly and if he hadn’t left for BYU shortly after the big payoffs, people would be looking for a different reason to discredit Pope. He’d have gotten those illustrious conference titles and a much better winning percentage (confident projections based on trend.)

Problem is — he’s at Kentucky and he already has the job so none of it matters. He knows he needs to win here. He’s acknowledged it and I believe he wants this as bad as we do. I don’t have a prognostication for you, but I’ll say I’m cheering like heck that Pope proves every doubter wrong including me.

 

[Dr.LutherSan]

Based entirely on hindsight being 20/20. You could not have reasonably claimed it when they were at the same juncture of their career Pope is currently at. This really shouldn't be so difficult for you to comprehend.

There was not a large enough sample size for those that you brought up.

If he didn’t graduate from UK, do you think he would be hired?

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

There was not a large enough sample size for those that you brought up.

If he didn’t graduate from UK, do you think he would be hired?

There’s also not enough sample size to say Pope won’t succeed here either. Sample size is the very point, sir.

I know the comment was directed to Paul, but if it’s ok I’ll share my view on this also. I personally don’t think Pope would have gotten the job if not for his national championship pedigree as a player at the school. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the coaching chops, however. It just means he was taken a little earlier in the process than Kentucky would normally take a guy.

I’ll also note that risky hires may be a thing going forward, judging by Carolina. We will see on that one. Either way, even if someone fully granted that Pope got the job earlier than he should have —- that part is done. We have to wait and see whether it works out and that story is unfinished.

Addendum: I’ll also add that Pope’s early career showed the promise of a guy who was on the way up. He had an impressive trajectory if you look beyond the “gotcha” points and “winning one-liners.” Go look at it yourself. Start two or three years prior to Pope and then track the rosters, records and progression at Utah Valley.

2015 Utah Valley (year before Pope era)

2014-15 Utah Valley Wolverines Men's Schedule and Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2014-15 Utah Valley Wolverines Schedule and Results for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

2016 Utah Valley (year one of Pope era)

2015-16 Utah Valley Wolverines Men's Schedule and Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2015-16 Utah Valley Wolverines Schedule and Results for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

2017 Utah Valley (year two of Pope era)

2016-17 Utah Valley Wolverines Men's Schedule and Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2016-17 Utah Valley Wolverines Schedule and Results for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

2018 Utah Valley (year three of Pope era)

2017-18 Utah Valley Wolverines Men's Schedule and Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2017-18 Utah Valley Wolverines Schedule and Results for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

2019 Utah Valley (year four of Pope era)

2018-19 Utah Valley Wolverines Men's Schedule and Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2018-19 Utah Valley Wolverines Schedule and Results for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

2020 Utah Valley (year after Pope era)

2019-20 Utah Valley Wolverines Men's Schedule and Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2019-20 Utah Valley Wolverines Schedule and Results for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

 

[Dr.LutherSan]

There’s also not enough sample size to say Pope won’t succeed here either. Sample size is the very point, sir.

I know the comment was directed to Paul, but if it’s ok I’ll share my view on this also. I personally don’t think Pope would have gotten the job if not for his national championship pedigree as a player at the school. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the coaching chops, however. It just means he was taken a little earlier in the process than Kentucky would normally take a guy.

I’ll also note that risky hires may be a thing going forward, judging by Carolina. We will see on that one. Either way, even if someone fully granted that Pope got the job earlier than he should have —- that part is done. We have to wait and see whether it works out and that story is unfinished.

11 years of head coaching experience and almost 54 years of age isn't a large enough sample size?

In regards to Mike Malone, he had many years of success in the NBA.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

There was not a large enough sample size for those that you brought up.

If he didn’t graduate from UK, do you think he would be hired?

It is a similar sample size to what Pope has. I have made numerous posts meticulously listing all of this.

I don't know and I don't think it matters at all at this point. As I have said repeatedly, if the current coach had zero previous connection to UK I would not be clamoring for his dismissal at this point with the exact same circumstances. A revolving door situation is something I think should definitely be avoided short of disastrous circumstances.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

11 years of head coaching experience and almost 54 years of age isn't a large enough sample size?

In regards to Mike Malone, he had many years of success in the NBA.

Considering nine of it was at a midmajor level school — no. Clearly it isn’t. And there were all-time great coaches who didn’t accomplish much in the first nine years of their career either.

I’d say Pope’s two year career at Kentucky so far is a mixed bag. There’s things to give hope and things to invite worry. I can make the case for both. And you may argue one of those is the correct answer and I can tell you I’ve thought deeply about it and I don’t hold that view. Devoid of context, sure you could argue it’s clear-cut one way or another. But when you really get into honest evaluation, the best grade Pope can get so far is a TBD. For a myriad of reasons.

 

[WildcatFanatic98]

I personally don’t think Pope would have gotten the job if not for his national championship pedigree as a player at the school.

Filed under the category of "No F'n ****."

 

[Dr.LutherSan]

It is a similar sample size to what Pope has. I have made numerous posts meticulously listing all of this.

I don't know and I don't think it matters at all at this point. As I have said repeatedly, if the current coach had zero previous connection to UK I would not be clamoring for his dismissal at this point with the exact same circumstances. A revolving door situation is something I think should definitely be avoided short of disastrous circumstances.

Most of those guys that you meticulously listed had to build the foundation of their respective programs at a young age and had to rely on retention from failures of the previous coach WITHOUT the availability of the transfer portal or NIL.

I just want my favorite team to be elite again. The injury excuse and success in data does nothing for me and there’s way too much "why not" instead of "why" regarding his ability to be the guy for the job.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Most of those guys that you meticulously listed had to build the foundation of their respective programs at a young age and had to rely on retention from failures of the previous coach WITHOUT the availability of the transfer portal or NIL.

I just want my favorite team to be elite again. The injury excuse and success in data does nothing for me and there’s way too much "why not" instead of "why" regarding his ability to be the guy for the job.

This is definitely inaccurate in a number of cases which I have clearly laid out. You just stick with what you choose to believe and ignore all evidence. Smith and K for example took over thriving situations and promptly tanked them in the short term. UNC fans hung Smith in effigy as a display of their displeasure.

 

[scratchycat3]

Unbelievable he has the most bs non conference schedule this year 8 of his 11 non conference games are cup cakes

 

[scratchycat3]

Pope is the worst coach this program has had BG dosnt count . He’s unbelievable with his excuses blaming everything on injuries and then has the audacity to tell people how to fan after a 14 loss season Mr “I’m here to win banners “ win is the winning supposed to start . You ever listen to Chris Adam’s on Tik tok you’ll know he’s not happy with pope and I couldn’t agree more

 

[Anon1751335390]

I just want my favorite team to be elite again. The injury excuse and success in data does nothing for me and there’s way too much "why not" instead of "why" regarding his ability to be the guy for the job.

That's the crux of this.

We haven't had a 1 seed since 2015. How many seasons in the last 10 years have we felt like we might have one of the 4 best teams going into the tournament? Two at most and one of them lost in the first round to a 15 seed.

 

[Artlaibesghost]

How anyone not a complete idiot can fault Pope for year one is beyond me. Going to Sweet 16 given the obstacles he faced that year should have brought him coach of the year consideration. Last year was another story. Pope constructed the roster poorly and then seemed impotent to make the adjustments needed to salvage the season to UK standatds.He also appeared to lose control of some of the egos on that team. He made several PR moves that exacerbated his problems.
So we have 2 seasons to judge his
performance one bad and one pretty good. The question in year three is which one is an accurate measuring stick for his coaching abilities. This year will go a long way toward answering that question. I am willing to wait and see unlike the many spoiled instant reinforcement fans who frequent these boards. Should this season prove as bad as last year I will admitt we might need a change. Until then I will WAIT, something fans under 40 seem unwilling or unable to do

 

[Padsfs07]

11 years of head coaching experience and almost 54 years of age isn't a large enough sample size?

In regards to Mike Malone, he had many years of success in the NBA.

Pope started late in coaching so I don't know why his age matters. He spent six years in the NBA, playing overseas, and then 3-4 years at medical school. He started coaching at age 40.

He has had a natural progression coaching-wise, except for the reach when hired at UK. He went from UGA assistant, to BYU assistant, to Utah Valley head coach, to BYU head coach.

The only real break in that is when Barnhart hired him. He didn't have that breakout season at BYU that should be required for hiring someone to a job at UK. I don't hold his resume against him though. It was a solid one and the problem lies with the UK AD, becuase you are now relying on hope.

This is no different than Tubby Smith's progression: VCU - South Carolina - UK - Tulsa (HC) - UGA - UK

 

[Dr.LutherSan]

Pope started late in coaching so I don't know why his age matters. He spent six years in the NBA, playing overseas, and then 3-4 years at medical school. He started coaching at age 40.

He has had a natural progression coaching-wise, except for the reach when hired at UK. He went from UGA assistant, to BYU assistant, to Utah Valley head coach, to BYU head coach.

The only real break in that is when Barnhart hired him. He didn't have that breakout season at BYU that should be required for hiring someone to a job at UK. I don't hold his resume against him though. It was a solid one and the problem lies with the UK AD, becuase you are now relying on hope.

This is no different than Tubby Smith's progression: VCU - South Carolina - UK - Tulsa (HC) - UGA - UK

Tubby had a lot more going for him when he got the UK job:
-age 46 with 6 seasons as a head coach with 4 NCAA tournament appearances (3 of those being Sweet Sixteens)
-assistant under Pitino

Pope:
-age 51 with 9 seasons as a head coach with 2 NCAA tournament appearances (no wins)
-assistant under Dave Rose

 

[Threedognight]

Tubby had a lot more going for him when he got the UK job:
-age 46 with 6 seasons as a head coach with 4 NCAA tournament appearances (3 of those being Sweet Sixteens)
-assistant under Pitino

Pope:
-age 51 with 9 seasons as a head coach with 2 NCAA tournament appearances (no wins)
-assistant under Dave Rose

Go find someone to acupuncture

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Unbelievable he has the most bs non conference schedule this year 8 of his 11 non conference games are cup cakes

Attacking Pope based on schedule is one of the stupidest things I have ever seen on here.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Pope is the worst coach this program has had BG dosnt count . He’s unbelievable with his excuses blaming everything on injuries and then has the audacity to tell people how to fan after a 14 loss season Mr “I’m here to win banners “ win is the winning supposed to start . You ever listen to Chris Adam’s on Tik tok you’ll know he’s not happy with pope and I couldn’t agree more

To just say BCG doesn't count is ridiculous and unacceptable in every way. All the rest are Hall of Famers going back to Rupp so you really aren't making any point at all.

 

[scratchycat3]

Attacking Pope based on schedule is one of the stupidest things I have ever seen on here.

He made the schedule and it’s pretty weak

 

[PastorofMuppets82]

Tell me what National Champion had this non-con recently and how it compares to UK's currently non-con.

N - South Florida (in Florida)
H - Jacksonville
H - Grambling State
N - Florida State
H - Florida A&M
H - Southern Illinois
N - Wake Forest (in Florida)
N - Wichita State (in Florida)
H - Virginia
N - Arizona State
N - North Carolina
H - North Florida
H - Stetson

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

Tell me what National Champion had this non-con recently and how it compares to UK's currently non-con.

N - South Florida (in Florida)
H - Jacksonville
H - Grambling State
N - Florida State
H - Florida A&M
H - Southern Illinois
N - Wake Forest (in Florida)
N - Wichita State (in Florida)
H - Virginia
N - Arizona State
N - North Carolina
H - North Florida
H - Stetson

With so many games in Florida. I’m going to guess the Gators.

 

[scratchycat3]

To just stay BCG doesn't count is ridiculous and unacceptable in every way. All the rest are Hall of Famers going back to Rupp so you really aren't making any point at all.

Eddie Sutton is not a HoF coach bcg or pope

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

Eddie Sutton is not a HoF coach bcg or pope

Sutton is in the HOF.

 

[scratchycat3]

Sutton is in the HOF.

For what ?

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

For what ?

I didn’t place him there but he is in fact there.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

He made the schedule and it’s pretty weak

He has played the two most difficult schedules in school history and this one will rate pretty similar.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

For what ?

Eddie Sutton

www.hoophall.com

Eddie Sutton Enters Naismith Hall Of Fame - Oklahoma State University Athletics

SPRINGFIELD, Mass. - The author of 806 wins and three Final Four appearances, the legendary Eddie Sutton will enter the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of ...

okstate.com

When you try to call someone out you really ought to verify it first. You said you weren't counting BCG and Pope was the guy you were comparing them to so obviously I was not saying those two were in the Hall of Fame.

 

[scratchycat3]

Eddie Sutton

www.hoophall.com

Eddie Sutton Enters Naismith Hall Of Fame - Oklahoma State University Athletics

SPRINGFIELD, Mass. - The author of 806 wins and three Final Four appearances, the legendary Eddie Sutton will enter the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of ...

okstate.com

When you try to call someone out you really ought to verify it first.

Nobody cares about Eddie Sutton and his tenure at Kentucky was not impressive at all

 

[scratchycat3]

He has played the two most difficult schedules in school history and this one will rate pretty similar.

It won’t be no where near similar he doesn’t play anyone in the non conference besides Kansas, IU , Virginia , Louisville such a hard schedule I don’t know how good unc will be but non conference is a joke for a rupp schedule and how much they charge for a dam ticket

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

Nobody cares about Eddie Sutton and his tenure at Kentucky was not impressive at all

That is a pitiful attempt to cover your massive fail claiming he was not in the Hall of Fame.