Ranking Kentucky Basketball Teams Since 2018

[Im The Village Idiot]

HPRS version 0.9

1. 2018–19 — 30.515
2. 2019–20 — 26.066
3. 2024–25 — 23.395
4. 2021–22 — 23.316
5. 2017–18 — 22.695
6. 2023–24 — 16.765
7. 2025–26 — 16.589
8. 2022–23 — 16.537
9. 2020–21 — −0.356

Need feedback to dial this in a little more. Rating each of these teams in their respective seasons, a greatness scale that considers regular season and postseason accomplishments.

How close are we getting to accuracy, in your opinion?

 

[Anon200440]

HPRS version 0.9

1. 2018–19 — 30.515
2. 2019–20 — 26.066
3. 2024–25 — 23.395
4. 2021–22 — 23.316
5. 2017–18 — 22.695
6. 2023–24 — 16.765
7. 2025–26 — 16.589
8. 2022–23 — 16.537
9. 2020–21 — −0.356

Need feedback to dial this in a little more. Rating each of these teams in their respective seasons, a greatness scale that considers regular season and postseason accomplishments.

How close are we getting to accuracy, in your opinion?

Only thing that rly shocks me is 24-25 feels WAY too high

 

[PooPooPeePeePoo]

I’m a certified Pope hater but the 24-25 team was loaded. If it wasn’t for injuries that year I’m certain we’d at least have gotten a final 4. Lamont was playing with a bum shoulder, we lost Kriisa, Carr was playing with a bum back and we lost Jaxson for the year, probably our best player.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

You think he would have at least made the Final Four if not for injuries but you hate him? That sounds irrational if you think he was good enough to have pulled that off with a squad cobbled together last minute with no superstars.

 

[CB3UK]

I'll be honest, I couldn't tell you who was on which team from this stretch of time without looking it up. Some of the most absolutely forgettable teams. It's akin to that stretch of presidents post Civil War - World War I during the Reconstruction Era.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Only thing that rly shocks me is 24-25 feels WAY too high

My gut feeling is that 2024 seems way low, which is why I’m working on a revision right now.

2025 though was a top ten team for half the regular season, made a Sweet 16, earned a 3 seed, played by far the toughest schedule in Kentucky basketball history, had the most wins against ranked teams ever in the program, etc. Even despite those things, its flaws keep it over a full 7 points below the 2019 team.

What makes you say it is too high?

 

[MegaBlue05]

2024 seems low and 2018 seems too high. I get they won the SECT and made the S16, but that team played some pretty bad basketball for a stretch of that season.

The 2019-20 team often gets romanticized because of the what if that surrounded the lack of a postseason that year.

The rest seem accurate to me. We can all agree the 2021 team was worst with 2023 and 2026 also being mediocre squads. It’s fair to rank the 2019 team as the best because it was an OT away from the Final Four.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

2024 seems low and 2018 seems too high. I get they won the SECT and made the S16, but that team played some pretty bad basketball for a stretch of that season.

The 2019-20 team often gets romanticized because of the what if that surrounded the lack of a postseason that year.

The rest seem accurate to me. We can all agree the 2021 team was worst with 2023 and 2026 also being mediocre squads. It’s fair to rank the 2019 team as the best because it was an OT away from the Final Four.

I agree with all that. Thanks for the feedback.

The model loves 2018 and I’m not sure why yet. I’m thinking the SECT and SEC regular season titles are weighted a little too heavily. May tone it down since every conference has varying degrees of difficulty. I wanted to reward conference accomplishments, but really it ends up essentially “double-counting”.

 

[Anon200440]

My gut feeling is that 2024 seems way low, which is why I’m working on a revision right now.

2025 though was a top ten team for half the regular season, made a Sweet 16, earned a 3 seed, played by far the toughest schedule in Kentucky basketball history, had the most wins against ranked teams ever in the program, etc. Even despite those things, its flaws keep it over a full 7 points below the 2019 team.

What makes you say it is too high?

That 24-25 team also had like 12 losses, several by 10+ and the style was hard to watch which is why I said I thought they woukd be lower

In the same way that I thought 23-24 would be higher because that product was very fun to watch.

 

[Anon200440]

That 23-24 team also blew out elite teams by 20+ so they should be top 3

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

That 24-25 team also had like 12 losses, several by 10+ and the style was hard to watch which is why I said I thought they woukd be lower

In the same way that I thought 23-24 would be higher because that product was very fun to watch.

“The style was hard to watch”?

Are you kidding?

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

That 24-25 team also had like 12 losses, several by 10+ and the style was hard to watch which is why I said I thought they woukd be lower

In the same way that I thought 23-24 would be higher because that product was very fun to watch.

Each successive loss actually has a negative penalty, meaning 2025 is actually punished for its 12 losses.

Each team is also punished more for margin of loss, as there’s an algorithm for projecting median outcome for each game.

Style of play doesn’t matter in this system though.

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

Each successive loss actually has a negative penalty, meaning 2025 is actually punished for its 12 losses.

Each team is also punished more for margin of loss, as there’s an algorithm for projecting median outcome for each game.

Style of play doesn’t matter in this system though.

It’s not like the 24 team only had 5 losses. They had double digit losses as well and they also had their warts in the shape of UNC Wilmington and Oakland.

 

[The Ganner]

2024 seems low and 2018 seems too high. I get they won the SECT and made the S16, but that team played some pretty bad basketball for a stretch of that season.

The 2019-20 team often gets romanticized because of the what if that surrounded the lack of a postseason that year.

The rest seem accurate to me. We can all agree the 2021 team was worst with 2023 and 2026 also being mediocre squads. It’s fair to rank the 2019 team as the best because it was an OT away from the Final Four.

2018 was a team that started 5 freshmen and looked like it. Had flaws for sure but a lot of individual talent that just rarely looked cohesive.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

I think after further review, I’m going to halt work on HPRS effective immediately.

I think I need to consider how to weigh all factors against each other a lot more. That will require a little more thinking about what a great team even constitutes in the first place.

The one part of this system that is very unique is the “Historical Proof” rating though. This is where every game of the season is considered as a whole, after all games have completed. This allows a more accurate discernment about how impressive or destructive wins or losses were, looking back over the season. For now, I’ll consider building the “Historical Proof” ratings its own project and share those findings, including all individual games from the ledger.

After completing that project, I’ll work with the Rupp Rafters and KSBoard communities to decide what greatness means and how we can factor all things together.

……and plot twist… this is all so I can create for us all the most accurate college basketball rosters possible when the game comes out in a year and a half.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

My gut feeling is that 2024 seems way low, which is why I’m working on a revision right now.

2025 though was a top ten team for half the regular season, made a Sweet 16, earned a 3 seed, played by far the toughest schedule in Kentucky basketball history, had the most wins against ranked teams ever in the program, etc. Even despite those things, its flaws keep it over a full 7 points below the 2019 team.

What makes you say it is too high?

2025 was top 10 AP team for half the regular season, FACT

Made a Sweet 16, FACT

Earned a 3 seed, FACT

Played the toughest schedule in Kentucky history, FACT

Most victories versus ranked teams in a Kentucky season, FACT

@JwUKFan11 What about this was funny to you?

Honestly, I don’t sign into this site to end up annoyed at bad faith actors. If you want to explain yourself, you’re welcome to explain it. But I’m close to just blocking you so I don’t see your posts, not a fan of the passive aggressive stuff

 

[JwUKFan11]

2025 was top 10 AP team for half the regular season, FACT

Made a Sweet 16, FACT

Earned a 3 seed, FACT

Played the toughest schedule in Kentucky history, FACT

Most victories versus ranked teams in a Kentucky season, FACT

@JwUKFan11 What about this was funny to you?

Honestly, I don’t sign into this site to end up annoyed at bad faith actors. If you want to explain yourself, you’re welcome to explain it. But I’m close to just blocking you so I don’t see your posts, not a fan of the passive aggressive stuff

Probably the part where you act confused about why someone would think they are ranked so highly in your list? It’s like certain people on this site want to just completely ignore the many, many, double digit blastings these last two teams have taken.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Probably the part where you act confused about why someone would think they are ranked so highly in your list? It’s like certain people on this site want to just completely ignore the many, many, double digit blastings these last two teams have taken.

They were 7+ points from the 2019 team, nowhere even remotely close to the top. And most of the teams in that pool of data also lost double digit games.

As a matter of fact, every team in that pool of data other than 3 (‘19, ‘20, and ‘22) lost double digits and all of them played a weaker schedule.

Let’s see your rankings 2018-2026.

 

[JwUKFan11]

They were 7+ points from the 2019 team, nowhere even remotely close to the top. And most of the teams in that pool of data also lost double digit games.

As a matter of fact, every team in that pool of data other than 3 (‘19, ‘20, and ‘22) lost double digits and all of them played a weaker schedule.

Let’s see your rankings 2018-2026.

Let's see the number of double-digit losses each team had. That's the point, that they were beaten a lot in that manner, and it continued last year, in that we were down 10+ in like half the games.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Let's see the number of double-digit losses each team had. That's the point, that they were beaten a lot in that manner, and it continued last year, in that we were down 10+ in like half the games.

You’re hyper focusing on one thing. Yeah they lost more double digit games. They also didn’t lose to UNC Wilmington, Oakland, St. Peter’s etc. You have to factor EVERYTHING in. By the way, my system will factor it all — every loss matters, margin of loss matters, who you lose to matters.

 

[Goingfor9]

I’m a certified Pope hater but the 24-25 team was loaded. If it wasn’t for injuries that year I’m certain we’d at least have gotten a final 4. Lamont was playing with a bum shoulder, we lost Kriisa, Carr was playing with a bum back and we lost Jaxson for the year, probably our best player.

Was loaded with head cases. Kerr (do we really consider him an active part of that team?). How about Robinson who refused to play PG and decided on ELECTIVE surgery to end his season? Butler was never going to be healthy. Remember pope pumping Kerr how he would excite us? That team may have been popes best team on the court but it’s not saying much. I know one thing. That team was not loaded. We had no PG all year even with 2 on the roster. And our third string refused to play. Last year lose PG1, ran off PG2. PG3 didn’t want to be there took the money for a year and went back to Florida. I don’t think pope has learned from his mistakes because we are guard thin on this team. One injury and the season is over.

 

[Goingfor9]

My gut feeling is that 2024 seems way low, which is why I’m working on a revision right now.

2025 though was a top ten team for half the regular season, made a Sweet 16, earned a 3 seed, played by far the toughest schedule in Kentucky basketball history, had the most wins against ranked teams ever in the program, etc. Even despite those things, its flaws keep it over a full 7 points below the 2019 team.

What makes you say it is too high?

If you’re revising, that means that everything that you’re putting out is biased.

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

Here’s Jw’s list:

1. Doesn’t matter
2. Doesn’t matter
3. Doesn’t matter
4. Doesn’t matter
5. Doesn’t matter
6. Doesn’t matter
7. Doesn’t matter
8. 24-25 “I only remember the bad things”
9. 25-26 Fair enough. This team sucked.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

If you’re revising, that means that everything that you’re putting out is biased.

Of course it is biased. I didn’t ask a machine to create a system blindly.

Im taking things that I value and creating the methodology around it. Example, I value teams that go to the Final Four. That’s a bias. I value conference championships. That is bias.

If you want one that isn’t biased, you have no need to create a system. Just go ask a program to create a system for you and have no input on it.

 

[SenseMaker_Cats]

Was loaded with head cases. Kerr (do we really consider him an active part of that team?). How about Robinson who refused to play PG and decided on ELECTIVE surgery to end his season? Butler was never going to be healthy. Remember pope pumping Kerr how he would excite us? That team may have been popes best team on the court but it’s not saying much. I know one thing. That team was not loaded. We had no PG all year even with 2 on the roster. And our third string refused to play. Last year lose PG1, ran off PG2. PG3 didn’t want to be there took the money for a year and went back to Florida. I don’t think pope has learned from his mistakes because we are guard thin on this team. One injury and the season is over.

Seek help. You sound insane.

 

[PooPooPeePeePoo]

You think he would have at least made the Final Four if not for injuries but you hate him? That sounds irrational if you think he was good enough to have pulled that off with a squad cobbled together last minute with no superstars.

The only reason Pope had that squad was because it was his 1st year (excitement factor) The Covid senior rules (6th year guys) and he brought his stud player that he coached at BYU. That’s not happening again. We’re on year 3 of Pope and the only thing that saved him this year is Milan deciding not to stay in the draft. Otherwise this roster was cooked.

 

[Lameguy]

Was loaded with head cases. Kerr (do we really consider him an active part of that team?). How about Robinson who refused to play PG and decided on ELECTIVE surgery to end his season? Butler was never going to be healthy. Remember pope pumping Kerr how he would excite us? That team may have been popes best team on the court but it’s not saying much. I know one thing. That team was not loaded. We had no PG all year even with 2 on the roster. And our third string refused to play. Last year lose PG1, ran off PG2. PG3 didn’t want to be there took the money for a year and went back to Florida. I don’t think pope has learned from his mistakes because we are guard thin on this team. One injury and the season is over.

full of head cases? I’m definitely reading a head case here but it wasn’t on the 24/25 team.

 

[JwUKFan11]

You’re hyper focusing on one thing. Yeah they lost more double digit games. They also didn’t lose to UNC Wilmington, Oakland, St. Peter’s etc. You have to factor EVERYTHING in. By the way, my system will factor it all — every loss matters, margin of loss matters, who you lose to matters.

I'm not hyper-focusing on one thing, but it's clear why the person you originally replied to thought that team was a little high. They were blown out a ton. You just got your panties in a wad because I laughed hahaha

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

I'm not hyper-focusing on one thing, but it's clear why the person you originally replied to thought that team was a little high. They were blown out a ton. You just got your panties in a wad because I laughed hahaha

Blocked. I ain’t spending my time on stuff like this

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

My gut feeling is that 2024 seems way low, which is why I’m working on a revision right now.

2025 though was a top ten team for half the regular season, made a Sweet 16, earned a 3 seed, played by far the toughest schedule in Kentucky basketball history, had the most wins against ranked teams ever in the program, etc. Even despite those things, its flaws keep it over a full 7 points below the 2019 team.

What makes you say it is too high?

It is entirely about his hatred for Pope and for anything that might not support his agenda to fire Pope.

 

[paulcalhoun_rivals397471]

HPRS version 0.9

1. 2018–19 — 30.515
2. 2019–20 — 26.066
3. 2024–25 — 23.395
4. 2021–22 — 23.316
5. 2017–18 — 22.695
6. 2023–24 — 16.765
7. 2025–26 — 16.589
8. 2022–23 — 16.537
9. 2020–21 — −0.356

Need feedback to dial this in a little more. Rating each of these teams in their respective seasons, a greatness scale that considers regular season and postseason accomplishments.

How close are we getting to accuracy, in your opinion?

Just for fun this how the Sports Reference Site's SRS rates them.

1. 2018-2019 21.43
2. 2024-2025 21.26
3. 2022-2023 20.90
4. 2025-2026 19.13
5. 2017-2018 17.24
6. 2023-2024 16.79
7. 2019-2020 15.78
8. 2022-2023 14.76
9. 2020-2021 11.77

This is not to knock what you are doing here. I was just interested in seeing how similar or different the order may be. It is of note that the 2023-2024 team in question does land in the same spot as they were by your metric.

The JW dude who was harassing you will like this even less as it rates Pope's teams higher on the list than yours did even though this is strictly judged by the rating of the opponent and margin of victory or loss in each game. Non division 1 games are excluded from consideration by this metric.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Just for fun this how the Sports Reference Site's SRS rates them.

1. 2018-2019 21.43
2. 2024-2025 21.26
3. 2022-2023 20.90
4. 2025-2026 19.13
5. 2017-2018 17.24
6. 2023-2024 16.79
7. 2019-2020 15.78
8. 2022-2023 14.76
9. 2020-2021 11.77

This is not to knock what you are doing here. I was just interested in seeing how similar or different the order may be. It is of note that the 2023-2024 team in question does land in the same spot as they were by your metric.

The JW dude who was harassing you will like this even less as it rates Pope's teams higher on the list than yours did even though this is strictly judged by the rating of the opponent and margin of victory or loss in each game. Non division 1 games are excluded from consideration by this metric.

I’m actually super glad you shared this. Maybe the 2024 team just wasn’t as good as I feel like it was. KenPom also wasn’t very high on that team either. They hovered around late teens, early twenties IIRC.

What I think I’ll do — coz I’m still unhappy with the algorithm. I’ll probably ditch it and do a post on here in a few days and ask for everything everyone thinks makes a great team when you’re looking back on them — other than eye test. SRS will definitely be a big factor coz I’m a huge proponent of that metric.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

2018 won something that matters n the sec tournament. 2022 and 2025 didnt. So id personally rank 2018 higher. They made sweet 16 same as 2025 so cant use ncaa tournament success n 2025s favor either.

2022 probably best of the 3 but damn that ncaa loss was humiliating.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

2018 won something that matters n the sec tournament. 2022 and 2025 didnt. So id personally rank 2018 higher. They made sweet 16 same as 2025 so cant use ncaa tournament success n 2025s favor either.

2022 probably best of the 3 but damn that ncaa loss was humiliating.

You bring up an interesting point about the SECT titles. I’m still trying to figure out the best way to factor that in.

Regular season body of work? 2022>2025>2018

Conference tournament body of work?
2018>2025>2022

NCAA tournament body of work?
2025>2018>2022

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

I’m actually super glad you shared this. Maybe the 2024 team just wasn’t as good as I feel like it was. KenPom also wasn’t very high on that team either. They hovered around late teens, early twenties IIRC.

What I think I’ll do — coz I’m still unhappy with the algorithm. I’ll probably ditch it and do a post on here in a few days and ask for everything everyone thinks makes a great team when you’re looking back on them — other than eye test. SRS will definitely be a big factor coz I’m a huge proponent of that metric.

I feel ya on the 24 team…but here’s the kicker…and I TRULY believe this. And I’m not even joking. Had I been the one to set the lineup and subsequent substitutions the entire season, it would have been a better team. Moral of the story? That WAS a better team, Cal just coached it (from a lineup construction standpoint) about as poorly as anyone that has half a clue about basketball could have. Their results were far FAR worse than they should’ve been.

 

[BellyBall]

I know 20-21 is right where they should be.

 

[CRZ4UK]

I feel ya on the 24 team…but here’s the kicker…and I TRULY believe this. And I’m not even joking. Had I been the one to set the lineup and subsequent substitutions the entire season, it would have been a better team. Moral of the story? That WAS a better team, Cal just coached it (from a lineup construction standpoint) about as poorly as anyone that has half a clue about basketball could have. Their results were far FAR worse than they should’ve been.

I remember how everyone was so pissed every time Cal would start Wagner, Edwards and Mitchell . That lineup would dig a 10 point hole and in came Shep and Dilly.
That’s some bad memories. lol. Calipari also did that with Quade Green over SGA. People forget that but Green started half that season. It was clear to everyone long before Cal made that switch. Calipari wasn’t going to do that to Wagner.