9-3 or 10-2. Outside chance for CFP; as others have mentioned, it comes down to USC, UDub and Michigan. That is also the reverse order of confidence I have in wins for PSU against those teams.
Also, I am not sure if it's the summer doldrums, other things I am focusing on, getting older, a lack of familiarity I have with this team and program, or all of the above - but I am just not all that enthused right now about the season. I have, in the past, start getting excited about the season around this time - July is when I would make it a point to get the Town and Gown Football Edition at McLanahan's. This year - meh. Whatever will happen will happen.