What's your "gut" season outlook as of today July 11?

[KingLando]

Your endless posts certainly confirm that.

Correct--I don't mind having discussions--that's the purpose of a board like this. If you want additional posts about me for no reason then continue. I'd rather discuss the topic at hand but....
@Nitt1300 is clearly looking for another argument but he has to be move creative.

 

[Bvillebaron]

This is the first season in a while where I really have no idea what to expect going into this season. There are so many new elements to this year's team which has given me a different kind of excitement that I'm not used to having (the great unknown). Of course, all of us would like to see 10+ wins, make the playoffs and get to the final 4. However, my gut doesn't think that's how it will play out as of now. Even if everybody stays healthy, we could still lose 3-4 games and not even sniff the playoffs. At this point, I'm 50% we go 9-3, 25% we go 10-2 and 25% we go 8-4. This could change come late August based on what we hear coming out of camp (especially injuries).

If PSU does end up 10-2, if you had to choose one of these two scenarios, which one is it?
Scenario 1: Squeak into the playoffs as 11 or 12 seed and lose in the first round
or
Scenario 2: Just miss the playoffs and win a "good" bowl game against another top 20 team.

I'm probably not in the majority of "playoffs or bust" crowd but I choose scenario 2. To me, losing in the first round of the playoffs is no different than playing in a bowl game anyway. I would prefer ending the season with a WIN if we couldn't make it to the second round.

Have no idea. Extremely hard to assess. Very favorable schedule. Campbell brought in Becht and 23 other ISU players to help with the transition who I assume were mostly the best players from the team. On the other hand, ISU was 8-4 in the Big 12. Hoping for the best. We will see.

 

[Bvillebaron]

Correct--I don't mind having discussions--that's the purpose of a board like this. If you want additional posts about me for no reason then continue. I'd rather discuss the topic at hand but....
@Nitt1300 is clearly looking for another argument but he has to be move creative.

Oh I had plenty of good reasons for my post but you are too obtuse to get it.

 

[Nitt1300]

Have no idea. Extremely hard to assess. Very favorable schedule. Campbell brought in Becht and 23 other ISU players to help with the transition who I assume were mostly the best players from the team. On the other hand, ISU was 8-4 in the Big 12. Hoping for the best. We will see.

very fair take- face it, we are all clueless

 

[LaJollaCreek]

No clue. Too much turnover on the field and all over the staff. I'm hopeful for 8 wins, but I'm just not sure about too many spots to feel any real confidence.

 

[KingLando]

Oh I had plenty of good reasons for my post but you are too obtuse to get it.

No--I knew you were taking a shot at me and followed it. Hence I explained the purpose of the board. The things is--you thought it was an insult when I take that as a compliment.

 

[kgilbert78]

Eight wins--regular season. Takes a year to adjust and lots of new players.

 

[Corner Room Breakfast]

I've found out over 60 years of following PSU football the more hype = disappointing season.
The less hype or down playing = surprisingly good season.
Stay tuned.

 

[Marshall2323]

This season could be a story of the schedule giveth and the schedule taketh away. PSU avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
The 3 games that will define the season are Michigan, USC and Washington. After looking at the schedule of all 3 I found that they all play 3 of the following 4.....Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon or USC, in addition to playing PSU.
To be considered a successful season, IMO, PSU must beat the other 9 teams on the schedule and 1 of the aforementioned 3.
That would be 10-2 and perhaps playoff consideration. However, due to the schedules of the key 3 ....they all could have 2 or 3 losses in addition to losing to PSU. Of course 10-2 might be the charm, depending on the rest of the field. As for the conference championship, I don't see it.
Here's my take on position groups: safety and Zion Tracey- among the best in the conference
other corners- not confident
linebackers- could be among the best in the conference if healthy
DL- very, very concerned about DE especially depth
OL- should be above conference average
TE- among the best in the nation
WR- hoping for conference average results
RB- Hansen is a horse with 5.0 avg over 2 years, #2 who knows
QB- Becht if healthy can win this schedule, but very, concerned if he goes down
I looked at The Big 12 (only) stats for the past 2 years as well as the schedules of our opponents.
In looking at the roster, perhaps my biggest concern is overall depth. Football is a game of attrition. It's a minor miracle if your team looks similar to the beginning at the end. Barring a crippling injury to Becht or the likes of Rojas, this team should be 9-3 or 10-2.

 

[Nits1989]

9-3, maybe 10-2. Why? Because PSU went 8-4 in 2012, including 2 bad losses to start the season. This year has the potential to be better.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

This season could be a story of the schedule giveth and the schedule taketh away. PSU avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
The 3 games that will define the season are Michigan, USC and Washington. After looking at the schedule of all 3 I found that they all play 3 of the following 4.....Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon or USC, in addition to playing PSU.
To be considered a successful season, IMO, PSU must beat the other 9 teams on the schedule and 1 of the aforementioned 3.
That would be 10-2 and perhaps playoff consideration. However, due to the schedules of the key 3 ....they all could have 2 or 3 losses in addition to losing to PSU. Of course 10-2 might be the charm, depending on the rest of the field. As for the conference championship, I don't see it.
Here's my take on position groups: safety and Zion Tracey- among the best in the conference
other corners- not confident
linebackers- could be among the best in the conference if healthy
DL- very, very concerned about DE especially depth
OL- should be above conference average
TE- among the best in the nation
WR- hoping for conference average results
RB- Hansen is a horse with 5.0 avg over 2 years, #2 who knows
QB- Becht if healthy can win this schedule, but very, concerned if he goes down
I looked at The Big 12 (only) stats for the past 2 years as well as the schedules of our opponents.
In looking at the roster, perhaps my biggest concern is overall depth. Football is a game of attrition. It's a minor miracle if your team looks similar to the beginning at the end. Barring a crippling injury to Becht or the likes of Rojas, this team should be 9-3 or 10-2.

Quality post.

 

[s1uggo72]

11-1 lose the Big Ten Champ game 11-2 and get a home first round playoff game. We Are.

10-2 lose to Marshall

 

[IndianaNittanyLion_rivals328484]

Factors to consider:
1. I consider the BIG 12 roughly equivalent to the ACC conference. Not the quality of the SEC or B1G, but still the next two best conferences in the country.
2. We got the best of the Iowa State team that finished 8-4 in a decent, but not great conference.
3. We returned many good PSU players.
4. Between the two combined ISU and PSU team, we have lots of experienced starters.
5. With of year of improvement and with a new coaching staff that most of us believe is good (perhaps better than the previous staff), this team should be solid.
6. With the weak schedule we play, 10-2 is a reasonable expectation with possibilities of better. USC, UM and Washington are within our grasp (especially Washington). I'd be surprised if we lost all three of these.
7. What's important, is that a 10-2 or better team is proof to recruits and Portals to have the confidence in the coaching staff. I fully expect a more robust class in the years to come.

 

[DaytonRickster]

This season could be a story of the schedule giveth and the schedule taketh away. PSU avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
The 3 games that will define the season are Michigan, USC and Washington. After looking at the schedule of all 3 I found that they all play 3 of the following 4.....Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon or USC, in addition to playing PSU.
To be considered a successful season, IMO, PSU must beat the other 9 teams on the schedule and 1 of the aforementioned 3.
That would be 10-2 and perhaps playoff consideration. However, due to the schedules of the key 3 ....they all could have 2 or 3 losses in addition to losing to PSU. Of course 10-2 might be the charm, depending on the rest of the field. As for the conference championship, I don't see it.
Here's my take on position groups: safety and Zion Tracey- among the best in the conference
other corners- not confident
linebackers- could be among the best in the conference if healthy
DL- very, very concerned about DE especially depth
OL- should be above conference average
TE- among the best in the nation
WR- hoping for conference average results
RB- Hansen is a horse with 5.0 avg over 2 years, #2 who knows
QB- Becht if healthy can win this schedule, but very, concerned if he goes down
I looked at The Big 12 (only) stats for the past 2 years as well as the schedules of our opponents.
In looking at the roster, perhaps my biggest concern is overall depth. Football is a game of attrition. It's a minor miracle if your team looks similar to the beginning at the end. Barring a crippling injury to Becht or the likes of Rojas, this team should be 9-3 or 10-2.

I think the corners will be very solid w/Dixon, Collins, and Joseph along with Tracy. My concern for that position is if PSU DEs can't generate consistent pressure on opposing QBs and the CBs are having to cover for too long.

 

[IoffendwithTruth1]

This season could be a story of the schedule giveth and the schedule taketh away. PSU avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
The 3 games that will define the season are Michigan, USC and Washington. After looking at the schedule of all 3 I found that they all play 3 of the following 4.....Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon or USC, in addition to playing PSU.
To be considered a successful season, IMO, PSU must beat the other 9 teams on the schedule and 1 of the aforementioned 3.
That would be 10-2 and perhaps playoff consideration. However, due to the schedules of the key 3 ....they all could have 2 or 3 losses in addition to losing to PSU. Of course 10-2 might be the charm, depending on the rest of the field. As for the conference championship, I don't see it.
Here's my take on position groups: safety and Zion Tracey- among the best in the conference
other corners- not confident
linebackers- could be among the best in the conference if healthy
DL- very, very concerned about DE especially depth
OL- should be above conference average
TE- among the best in the nation
WR- hoping for conference average results
RB- Hansen is a horse with 5.0 avg over 2 years, #2 who knows
QB- Becht if healthy can win this schedule, but very, concerned if he goes down
I looked at The Big 12 (only) stats for the past 2 years as well as the schedules of our opponents.
In looking at the roster, perhaps my biggest concern is overall depth. Football is a game of attrition. It's a minor miracle if your team looks similar to the beginning at the end. Barring a crippling injury to Becht or the likes of Rojas, this team should be 9-3 or 10-2.

I understand with most of what you mentioned.
What do you consider above average in the conference for the OL?
Is a lot of your reasoning due to lack of field time for these guys? Mainly at RB?

This is a fair take. Is it fair for me to say this leans slightly pessimistic, due to the unknowns of the depth? If they were to end up 10-2, then would it be fair to assume you would be a happy fan at the end of the season?

 

[psuro]

9-3 or 10-2. Outside chance for CFP; as others have mentioned, it comes down to USC, UDub and Michigan. That is also the reverse order of confidence I have in wins for PSU against those teams.

Also, I am not sure if it's the summer doldrums, other things I am focusing on, getting older, a lack of familiarity I have with this team and program, or all of the above - but I am just not all that enthused right now about the season. I have, in the past, start getting excited about the season around this time - July is when I would make it a point to get the Town and Gown Football Edition at McLanahan's. This year - meh. Whatever will happen will happen.

 

[Marshall2323]

I understand with most of what you mentioned.
What do you consider above average in the conference for the OL?
Is a lot of your reasoning due to lack of field time for these guys? Mainly at RB?

This is a fair take. Is it fair for me to say this leans slightly pessimistic, due to the unknowns of the depth? If they were to end up 10-2, then would it be fair to assume you would be a happy fan at the end of the season?

In reference to the OL, I see what might be considered above average talent for the conference, but several 1st time starters in the Big 10 and players moving to different spots on the line. I'm a believer that OL requires a great deal of cohesion to ensure consistent execution. So there are potential challenges (especially early season) while they settle in. I'm not comfortable with depth (as at many positions).

RB has 3 unproven candidates. It takes more than 1 game (basically an exhibition) played by 2 teams depleted by opt outs for me to crown Martin. Peoples seems to have potential and Wallace is still pretty much an unknown at this juncture, If Hansen is healthy, I like his 5YPC over 2 seasons. Should he get banged up, there could be a scramble to find the right mix. Do they all have potential, yes.

I don't see 10-2 as pessimistic at all. It's hard to win every week. This is a team roster (IMO) that would be about 8-4 with a typical conference schedule. If you can take advantage of the schedule, PSU might steal a playoff berth. I wouldn't expect that to result in a run, but a much-needed positive development for the new staff and hopefully creates a much needed boost in recruiting, retention and portal acquisition. Things will get more challenging (schedules) in 2027 and beyond.

 

[Marshall2323]

Factors to consider:
1. I consider the BIG 12 roughly equivalent to the ACC conference. Not the quality of the SEC or B1G, but still the next two best conferences in the country.
2. We got the best of the Iowa State team that finished 8-4 in a decent, but not great conference.
3. We returned many good PSU players.
4. Between the two combined ISU and PSU team, we have lots of experienced starters.
5. With of year of improvement and with a new coaching staff that most of us believe is good (perhaps better than the previous staff), this team should be solid.
6. With the weak schedule we play, 10-2 is a reasonable expectation with possibilities of better. USC, UM and Washington are within our grasp (especially Washington). I'd be surprised if we lost all three of these.
7. What's important, is that a 10-2 or better team is proof to recruits and Portals to have the confidence in the coaching staff. I fully expect a more robust class in the years to come.

#2 One thing to consider, ISU finished 5-4 in the Big 12 tied for 7th place with 3 other schools. A key will be for Becht to be more like 23 and 24 than 25.
Otherwise, all good points. #7 is especially needed.

 

[Bob78]

Nothing short of a MNC is acceptable.

I think the "M" of the MNC is no longer applicable. Not mythical anymore with true(ish) playoffs. So nothing short of an NC, in that case.

Note: Notre Dame will argue that last year may have still been an MNC, as they likely had a good shot at a deep playoff run, but were kicked to the curb in favor of arguably lesser teams.

My mid-July guess: 9-3, winning one of the big 3 games, but being upset by a rising team that we don't yet see coming. No playoffs.
I'm all in on Campbell from everything I've heard, so I am willing to be patient and enjoy watching him build an annual contender here.

 

[IoffendwithTruth1]

In reference to the OL, I see what might be considered above average talent for the conference, but several 1st time starters in the Big 10 and players moving to different spots on the line. I'm a believer that OL requires a great deal of cohesion to ensure consistent execution. So there are potential challenges (especially early season) while they settle in. I'm not comfortable with depth (as at many positions).

RB has 3 unproven candidates. It takes more than 1 game (basically an exhibition) played by 2 teams depleted by opt outs for me to crown Martin. Peoples seems to have potential and Wallace is still pretty much an unknown at this juncture, If Hansen is healthy, I like his 5YPC over 2 seasons. Should he get banged up, there could be a scramble to find the right mix. Do they all have potential, yes.

I don't see 10-2 as pessimistic at all. It's hard to win every week. This is a team roster (IMO) that would be about 8-4 with a typical conference schedule. If you can take advantage of the schedule, PSU might steal a playoff berth. I wouldn't expect that to result in a run, but a much-needed positive development for the new staff and hopefully creates a much needed boost in recruiting, retention and portal acquisition. Things will get more challenging (schedules) in 2027 and beyond.

Got it. That is a very fair take. I believe with this roster, this schedule could not be any better. I said this being pessimistic about the unknowns at depth in certain areas. Perhaps pessimistic is not the word, cautious might fit a little better. I 100% agree with the OL take about cohesion. That is (IMO) the most important part of the OL.

If they can avoid catastrophic injuries, especially at QB & DE, I think this team very well could end up 10-2 or even 11-1. This team does have a lot of talent on the roster, however, that talent has not seen significant game time reps. The potential is there, they just need to execute.

 

[PSU Mike]

2-74. The ‘27 decommitments mean we won’t have any depth in 2026.

Sincerely,

72% of this board.

 

[Blair10]

This is the first season in a while where I really have no idea what to expect going into this season. There are so many new elements to this year's team which has given me a different kind of excitement that I'm not used to having (the great unknown). Of course, all of us would like to see 10+ wins, make the playoffs and get to the final 4. However, my gut doesn't think that's how it will play out as of now. Even if everybody stays healthy, we could still lose 3-4 games and not even sniff the playoffs. At this point, I'm 50% we go 9-3, 25% we go 10-2 and 25% we go 8-4. This could change come late August based on what we hear coming out of camp (especially injuries).

If PSU does end up 10-2, if you had to choose one of these two scenarios, which one is it?
Scenario 1: Squeak into the playoffs as 11 or 12 seed and lose in the first round
or
Scenario 2: Just miss the playoffs and win a "good" bowl game against another top 20 team.

I'm probably not in the majority of "playoffs or bust" crowd but I choose scenario 2. To me, losing in the first round of the playoffs is no different than playing in a bowl game anyway. I would prefer ending the season with a WIN if we couldn't make it to the second round.

My bet is on scenario 3 where Penn State will easily make the CFP based on their record. There will be no squeaking into the CFP.

Lastly, scenario 2 is not viable since bowl games (outside the CFP) are meaningless, irrelevant, and a thing of the past. As a reminder, 10 P4 teams declined bowl invitations last season. Examples: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida State, Auburn, UCF, Baylor, Rutgers, Kansas, and Temple.

Bottom line, it’s playoffs or bust for all P4 teams. There are no consolation prizes for failing to make the CFP.

 

[CareyFamily]

My guess is that the Lions struggle stopping the run with limited "difference maker" depth at DT and maybe DE. Especially if injuries come into play. I think PSU will be better than Michigan, but take the loss on the road and with UM having a bye the week before. I also think Washington gets the best of PSU on the road. I think Rocco and the O is pretty good (top 15ish) and he leads some gutsy and close wins at Northwestern and USC. 10-2, but miss out on playoff. Good, but not great season, and fun to watch!

 

[PSUHarry]

I think 8-4 , no explosiveness on offense again. Koby Howard won’t be enough. Another TE type of offense.

Season will be a grind. Easy wins out of conference than nail biters the entire season. D will have to keep us in it.

And we better make a splash in the portal or 2027 will be worse. 2026 recruiting class is lackluster and we will see more decommits due to NIL issues.

PSU football is at a big crossroads this year. They need a successful season to build for the future.

 

[Yogiman71]

11-1 offense shows major improvements…. Defense strong as ever.

 

[TheBigUglies]

I see 3 definite OOC wins to start the season. However, B1G games could go either way in my opinion. This is a newer staff, so not sure how they will adjust to the B1G which we all know is a tough conference. I know we are PSU but we can't just expect to step on the field and win because we are. I am feeling pessimistic about the season and hoping we can be above .500 but we won't know until we know. Not getting my hopes up for playoffs or a bowl game. Just want to see what type of team we will have under Matt Campbell.

 

[BiochemPSU]

I have no clue what this team will do. But new coach needs to win this year. He has a bunch of "his guys" on the roster from ISU who know the systems and have something to prove. After that, it's rebuilding time. Need to show portal and high-end recruits that this program can compete right away in order to avoid a few mediocre years.

 

[LB99]

I’m cautiously optimistic for 10 wins, but my gut tells me 8-9 wins. Too many unknowns to be more confident than that. I hope it’s a good product and they beat the teams they are supposed to beat and maybe knock off one of the teams they aren’t supposed to beat, but that’s probably the best case scenario. I see most of the B1G conference games as tight games for PSU.

 

[bdgan]

I am feeling pessimistic about the season and hoping we can be above .500 but we won't know until we know. Not getting my hopes up for playoffs or a bowl game. Just want to see what type of team we will have under Matt Campbell.

ESPN Power Football Index and Collegefootballnews.com both predict 9-3. If we win the 3 OOC games we would have to go 3-6 in the BiG to finish .500. That would be horrible!

There are lots of reasons to be concerned but .500 is way too pessimistic.

 

[bdgan]

I think 8-4 , no explosiveness on offense again. Koby Howard won’t be enough. Another TE type of offense.

Brahmer & Rapp could be one of the best TE combos in the conference.
Hansen is a bruiser at RB. Peoples and Martin have more speed. I think that's a pretty good group.
Howard, Sowell, & Eskildsen have potential at WR. I think they should be as good or better than last year's group.

I have no idea what to expect from the OL. Riker is center coming over from Texas State. Buhr is at LG and he seems pretty average. Goodman is at LT as a 5* recruit but no game experience. Those are all a risk IMO. Cousins & Donkoh should be solid barring injury.

 

[DaytonRickster]

Brahmer & Rapp could be one of the best TE combos in the conference.
Hansen is a bruiser at RB. Peoples and Martin have more speed. I think that's a pretty good group.
Howard, Sowell, & Eskildsen have potential at WR. I think they should be as good or better than last year's group.

I have no idea what to expect from the OL. Riker is center coming over from Texas State. Buhr is at LG and he seems pretty average. Goodman is at LT as a 5* recruit but no game experience. Those are all a risk IMO. Cousins & Donkoh should be solid barring injury.

The more I read comments and think about the season, the OL and QB depth are the main concerns. If OL develops together full.potential and Bechtbstays healthy, then 9-3 happen and 10-2 is possible. I think the defensive success rides on the DE position.

 

[LMTLION]

I am predicting 10-2 with a win as a dog and a loss to someone we are favored. Think we beat USC and UM and lose to Wash and a dog.

 

[LB99]

The more I read comments and think about the season, the OL and QB depth are the main concerns. If OL develops together full.potential and Bechtbstays healthy, then 9-3 happen and 10-2 is possible. I think the defensive success rides on the DE position.

The DE depth concerns me as well.

 

[bdgan]

Season will be a grind. Easy wins out of conference than nail biters the entire season. D will have to keep us in it.

The D might struggle. Kemajou & Granville could be good at DE but Nnodim & Williams are very modestly rated DTs. Bacon & Rojas at LB but not much depth.

 

[PSUForever]

I'm hoping 10-2 if not better but tons of unknowns. I have always counted Michigan as a loss but who knows with Campbell. If the team was coached by Franklin then absolutely we would be losing in AA because they guy never won games like that. Maybe Campbell will show us something.

There could be a team not named USC, Washington or Michigan that is not on our radar and could jump up to beat us.

I think we have a pretty good QB and pretty good WRs and pretty good TEs and RBs. I am not sure about the O-Line. Defense I have concerns about the Line and LBs.

I don't see the floor being any worse than 8-4 but I don't see us any better than 10-2.

I don't think we make the playoff.

 

[PSUHarry]

The D might struggle. Kemajou & Granville could be good at DE but Nnodim & Williams are very modestly rated DTs. Bacon & Rojas at LB but not much depth.

I’m worried less about the D than the O.

 

[KingLando]

I see 3 definite OOC wins to start the season. However, B1G games could go either way in my opinion. This is a newer staff, so not sure how they will adjust to the B1G which we all know is a tough conference. I know we are PSU but we can't just expect to step on the field and win because we are. I am feeling pessimistic about the season and hoping we can be above .500 but we won't know until we know. Not getting my hopes up for playoffs or a bowl game. Just want to see what type of team we will have under Matt Campbell.

This post makes me look like an optimist

 

[bdgan]

I think the defensive success rides on the DE position.

I think the defensive success rides on the DTs. We should be OK with Kemajou & Granville at DE.

Of course I think it also rides on Rojas being healthy.

 

[rigi19041]

I'm hoping 10-2 if not better but tons of unknowns. I have always counted Michigan as a loss but who knows with Campbell. If the team was coached by Franklin then absolutely we would be losing in AA because they guy never won games like that. Maybe Campbell will show us something.

There could be a team not named USC, Washington or Michigan that is not on our radar and could jump up to beat us.

I think we have a pretty good QB and pretty good WRs and pretty good TEs and RBs. I am not sure about the O-Line. Defense I have concerns about the Line and LBs.

I don't see the floor being any worse than 8-4 but I don't see us any better than 10-2.

I don't think we make the playoff.

Which translates to 0 big wins and one upset loss.

 

[rigi19041]

Shouldn't you be predictions g 11-1 minimum? Only one team ranked ahead of psu.