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What's your "gut" season outlook as of today July 11?

H

hapval8286

Junior
Jan 4, 2013
144
221
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This is the first season in a while where I really have no idea what to expect going into this season. There are so many new elements to this year's team which has given me a different kind of excitement that I'm not used to having (the great unknown). Of course, all of us would like to see 10+ wins, make the playoffs and get to the final 4. However, my gut doesn't think that's how it will play out as of now. Even if everybody stays healthy, we could still lose 3-4 games and not even sniff the playoffs. At this point, I'm 50% we go 9-3, 25% we go 10-2 and 25% we go 8-4. This could change come late August based on what we hear coming out of camp (especially injuries).

If PSU does end up 10-2, if you had to choose one of these two scenarios, which one is it?
Scenario 1: Squeak into the playoffs as 11 or 12 seed and lose in the first round
or
Scenario 2: Just miss the playoffs and win a "good" bowl game against another top 20 team.

I'm probably not in the majority of "playoffs or bust" crowd but I choose scenario 2. To me, losing in the first round of the playoffs is no different than playing in a bowl game anyway. I would prefer ending the season with a WIN if we couldn't make it to the second round.
 
K

KingLando

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
6,269
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hapval8286 said:
This is the first season in a while where I really have no idea what to expect going into this season. There are so many new elements to this year's team which has given me a different kind of excitement that I'm not used to having (the great unknown). Of course, all of us would like to see 10+ wins, make the playoffs and get to the final 4. However, my gut doesn't think that's how it will play out as of now. Even if everybody stays healthy, we could still lose 3-4 games and not even sniff the playoffs. At this point, I'm 50% we go 9-3, 25% we go 10-2 and 25% we go 8-4. This could change come late August based on what we hear coming out of camp (especially injuries).

If PSU does end up 10-2, if you had to choose one of these two scenarios, which one is it?
Scenario 1: Squeak into the playoffs as 11 or 12 seed and lose in the first round
or
Scenario 2: Just miss the playoffs and win a "good" bowl game against another top 20 team.

I'm probably not in the majority of "playoffs or bust" crowd but I choose scenario 2. To me, losing in the first round of the playoffs is no different than playing in a bowl game anyway. I would prefer ending the season with a WIN if we couldn't make it to the second round.
Click to expand...
A bowl game will feature tons of opts outs...and winning a bowl is absolutely meaningless. You always want a shot at the title. This concept doesn't make any sense. It's like asking someone if they'd rather play in the Super Bowl or Pro Bowl
 
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CVLion

All-Conference
Oct 13, 2021
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KingLando said:
A bowl game will feature tons of opts outs...and winning a bowl is absolutely meaningless. You always want a shot at the title. This concept doesn't make any sense. It's like asking someone if they'd rather play in the Super Bowl or Pro Bowl
Click to expand...

If you felt like last season’s bowl win, enabling Terry Smith and the players who stuck by him to pull out a winning season after the debacle that that things had become earlier, was meaningless, maybe you should find something different to do than follow Penn State football.
 
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KingLando

All-Conference
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CVLion said:
If you felt like last season’s bowl win, enabling Terry Smith and the players who stuck by him to pull out a winning season after the debacle that that things had become earlier, was meaningless, maybe you should find something different to do than follow Penn State football.
Click to expand...
yeah, it was meaningless--maybe you shouldn't try to add value to things that lack them.
You just like Terry Smith and want to believe that a bowl game matters for him. It didn't. If you enjoyed the game that's cool--lots of people enjoy the Blue & White game too--or at least they used to
 
J

JWB389

All-Conference
May 16, 2017
1,015
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I want us to win them all. My gut says we lose 3 maybe 4. Maybe win one we didn’t expect but lose one or two we didn’t expect. I’m sorry, I am unfortunately pessimistic for our future.
 
B

bdgan

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
4,908
4,740
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hapval8286 said:
This is the first season in a while where I really have no idea what to expect going into this season. There are so many new elements to this year's team which has given me a different kind of excitement that I'm not used to having (the great unknown). Of course, all of us would like to see 10+ wins, make the playoffs and get to the final 4. However, my gut doesn't think that's how it will play out as of now. Even if everybody stays healthy, we could still lose 3-4 games and not even sniff the playoffs. At this point, I'm 50% we go 9-3, 25% we go 10-2 and 25% we go 8-4. This could change come late August based on what we hear coming out of camp (especially injuries).

If PSU does end up 10-2, if you had to choose one of these two scenarios, which one is it?
Scenario 1: Squeak into the playoffs as 11 or 12 seed and lose in the first round
or
Scenario 2: Just miss the playoffs and win a "good" bowl game against another top 20 team.

I'm probably not in the majority of "playoffs or bust" crowd but I choose scenario 2. To me, losing in the first round of the playoffs is no different than playing in a bowl game anyway. I would prefer ending the season with a WIN if we couldn't make it to the second round.
Click to expand...
9-3 with a decent bowl game

The problem is 2027 could be a bigger struggle. Becht, Sowell, Hansen, Ezegou, Rojas, Tracy, Williams, Collins, etc are all seniors. We didn't have a high school recruiting class in 2026 and the 20th ranked (so far) 2027 class won't be ready to make a major impact. It's one thing if you have a solid core of players and need to fill 3 or 4 key positions in the portal. It's another thing if you need 10 or so key contributors from the portal.
 
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B

bdgan

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
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MtNittany said:
There are only 3.5 possible losses on the schedule imo - USC, SCum, WA, and .5 Minnesota.
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Last year we thought UCLA, Iowa, and Nebraska were certain wins.

I agree that we should win 9 games but what if we have key injuries to players like Becht, Rojas, Neal, or Brahmer? Thinks could go off the rails quickly. On the other hand we might win 10 games if things come together and we avoid injuries.
 
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LionJim

LionJim

Heisman
Oct 12, 2021
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bdgan said:
We're predicted to be 5th-7th in the BiG so that would be an incredible accomplishment.
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1982 and 1986 both were incredible achievements. Coach Paterno’s favorite line: “Ah, but a man’s reach should exceed his grasp, Or what’s a heaven for?” (I myself, without knowing of the Paterno connection, chose this very quote for my own college yearbook. True story. Life can be funny.)
 
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LionsAndBears

LionsAndBears

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11-1 with a close loss at Michigan. I think USC will be a fun win and I think we find the game at UDub to be easier than we first thought.
 
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MtNittany

MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
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bdgan said:
Last year we thought UCLA, Iowa, and Nebraska were certain wins.

I agree that we should win 9 games but what if we have key injuries to players like Becht, Rojas, Neal, or Brahmer? Thinks could go off the rails quickly. On the other hand we might win 10 games if things come together and we avoid injuries.
Click to expand...
I think the D3 kid could fill in well if Becht went down for a few weeks.
 
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CVLion

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KingLando said:
yeah, it was meaningless--maybe you shouldn't try to add value to things that lack them.
You just like Terry Smith and want to believe that a bowl game matters for him. It didn't. If you enjoyed the game that's cool--lots of people enjoy the Blue & White game too--or at least they used to
Click to expand...

If I and others valued it, by definition it had value. You alone don’t get to establish what has meaning here.

And as for Terry, you can’t tell me that closing out the season in that way didn’t play a factor in cementing the raise he got and his being asked to stay here.
 
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K

KingLando

All-Conference
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CVLion said:
If I and others valued it, by definition it had value. You alone don’t get to establish what has meaning here.

And as for Terry, you can’t tell me that closing out the season in that way didn’t play a factor in cementing the raise he got and his being asked to stay here.
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That's not how it works. To have value it must matter in the grand scheme of things. This is like caring about a moral victory. I'm not establishing meaning...FBS did that when they created playoff.

Winning the bowl had zero impact on him being on this staff.
 
Ludd

Ludd

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Oct 12, 2021
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KingLando said:
That's not how it works. To have value it must matter in the grand scheme of things. This is like caring about a moral victory. I'm not establishing meaning...FBS did that when they created playoff.

Winning the bowl had zero impact on him being on this staff.
Click to expand...
Why do you care so much about whether some people like bowl games? You go completely off the rails every time the topic is brought up. We get it, you don’t care about them and because you don’t that must mean everyone else doesn’t care either. Just let it go.
 
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KingLando

All-Conference
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Ludd said:
Why do you care so much about whether some people like bowl games? You go completely off the rails every time the topic is brought up. We get it, you don’t care about them and because you don’t that must mean everyone else doesn’t care either. Just let it go.
Click to expand...
Why do you care I care? I will always bring it up until we stop having absurd questions like "is it better to go to the playoff at 10-2 or a bowl game"
This isn't about caring. Care about anything you want. Don't claim they have meaning.
 
C

CVLion

All-Conference
Oct 13, 2021
1,022
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KingLando said:
That's not how it works. To have value it must matter in the grand scheme of things. This is like caring about a moral victory. I'm not establishing meaning...FBS did that when they created playoff.

Winning the bowl had zero impact on him being on this staff.
Click to expand...

Eff whatever you feel the grand scheme of things is, and your definitions of meaning and value.

If someone loves Penn State, gets to see the team play an extra game, and actually enjoy a win, that has meaning and value to them. If there are players who get extra practice and get to be part of an extra college game AND a win — especially those who don’t have a big time NFL career ahead of them — there is meaning and value there. Terry Smith will forever be able to say to turned 2025 into a winning season for the program he loves. Meaningful. Valuable.

These are abstract concepts that only come into existence when a human being feels that way about something. You, as a separate human being, certainly don’t have to feel the same way — but you also don’t get to negate the meaning and value assigned to things by others.

THAT’S how it works, man.
 
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KingLando

All-Conference
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CVLion said:
Eff whatever you feel the grand scheme of things is, and your definitions of meaning and value.

If someone loves Penn State, gets to see the team play an extra game, and actually enjoy a win, that has meaning and value to them. If there are players who get extra practice and get to be part of an extra college game AND a win — especially those who don’t have a big time NFL career ahead of them — there is meaning and value there. Terry Smith will forever be able to say to turned 2025 into a winning season for the program he loves. Meaningful. Valuable.

These are abstract concepts that only come into existence when a human being feels that way about something. You, as a separate human being, certainly don’t have to feel the same way — but you also don’t get to negate the meaning and value assigned to things by others.

THAT’S how it works, man.
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There's a playoff--a bowl no longer has meaning
It's not a real game--it's like getting excited for a preseason NFL game. There's no meaning--the only benefit is that it can give reps to younger kids when guys opt out
He should have beat Iowa or upset Ohio State/Indiana if he wanted a winning season.
This isn't about feeling-this is the FACT there's a playoff--bowl no longer have the same (or any) meaning. It's just so the networks (ESPN) have something to broadcast
Meaning isn't determined by any individual--you can care about something while accepting what it is
I love 125 and 250 events on the ATP and WTA--I know they aren't meaningful. They're only used to earn money to stay on tour and qualify for 1000s and majors. Same thing--i understand what a bowl is.
Join me in reality--it's not 1984
 
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G

G3624

Junior
Feb 18, 2014
476
379
63
7-5
This team will need a big regrouping, coaching staff will have to adjust to PSU and the fickle fan base. And there is the ADS less than stellar performance over the last few years. Archie would have called him a Dingbat.
 
Ludd

Ludd

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
4,439
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KingLando said:
Why do you care I care? I will always bring it up until we stop having absurd questions like "is it better to go to the playoff at 10-2 or a bowl game"
This isn't about caring. Care about anything you want. Don't claim they have meaning.
Click to expand...
I care because you gum up every thread with your pompous takes about bowl games.
 
K

KingLando

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
6,269
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Ludd said:
I care because you gum up every thread with your pompous takes about bowl games.
Click to expand...
It gets "gummed up" because of you needing this back and forth on it. You know my stance--you can extend the discussions if you want. Just watching soccer right now so...
 
Ludd

Ludd

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
4,439
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KingLando said:
It gets "gummed up" because of you needing this back and forth on it. You know my stance--you can extend the discussions if you want. Just watching soccer right now so...
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Yeah, because you have no part in it- got it.
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
3,407
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KingLando said:
Why do you care I care? I will always bring it up until we stop having absurd questions like "is it better to go to the playoff at 10-2 or a bowl game"
This isn't about caring. Care about anything you want. Don't claim they have meaning.
Click to expand...
Some posters should care that they are abject hammerheads and look like a fool every time they start posting.
 
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DaytonRickster

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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bdgan said:
Last year we thought UCLA, Iowa, and Nebraska were certain wins.

I agree that we should win 9 games but what if we have key injuries to players like Becht, Rojas, Neal, or Brahmer? Thinks could go off the rails quickly. On the other hand we might win 10 games if things come together and we avoid injuries.
Click to expand...
For 10 wins, you are correct, EVERYTHING has to come together and a major injury to Becht, Neal, one of the top three LBers, or an OL like Donkoh, could torpedo the season. I'm kinda settling in at 9-3.
 
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