Iowa vs PSU 2027 Predictions

sdvike

All-Conference
Feb 23, 2016
1,087
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It is not quite right. Block was at 31%, Arnold 25%, Ferrari 21%, Bailey 20%, and Keuter 0%
In comparison, Per AI, college career of Spencer Lee 81% and Austin Desanto 84% bonus points wins. Im not sure if that factored all career matches or just the winning matches.
 

Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
2,024
5,326
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In comparison, Per AI, college career of Spencer Lee 81% and Austin Desanto 84% bonus points wins. Im not sure if that factored all career matches or just the winning matches.
Per AI???? You mean "I am sure this is wrong, but I will quote it anyway".

DeSanto did not have an 84% career winnining percentage (80.5%) never mind bonus percentage (54.1%).

It used to be people would check wrestlestat because it was so easy. Now AI is easier. Wrong, but easier. And who needs right when you can have easier?
 

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,360
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Per AI???? You mean "I am sure this is wrong, but I will quote it anyway".

DeSanto did not have an 84% career winnining percentage (80.5%) never mind bonus percentage (54.1%).

It used to be people would check wrestlestat because it was so easy. Now AI is easier. Wrong, but easier. And who needs right when you can have easier?
It is scary how many people use A.I and believe it to be accurate on a variety of things. I've tried using it for sports statistics but continually would get responses that were blatantly incorrect and full of inaccurate information. " Per A.I" has become a tell tale sign that inaccurate information is about to be shared, sadly.
 

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
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For the sake of transparency, how many of those were even top 20 guys, let alone top 10? The ONLY one I see is Tyler Knox…
I can only think of the one top 10 you mentioned, Knox, and to be honest Knox seemingly gets bonuses by everyone who's near the top of the rankings... I will say a true freshman getting bonus over the likes of Braxton Brown, Dylan Shawver, Luke Willochell, Ethan Bergenic and Sean Spidle isn't nothing. It's not Jason Nolf or Bo Nickal but it also isn't Beau Bartlett. The tools and talent for him to open it up and score a lot of points are there. Whether that ever comes to fruition is unclear. I sure hope it does.
 
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Sir Pin Alot

All-Conference
Jun 25, 2025
401
1,129
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Per AI???? You mean "I am sure this is wrong, but I will quote it anyway".

DeSanto did not have an 84% career winnining percentage (80.5%) never mind bonus percentage (54.1%).

It used to be people would check wrestlestat because it was so easy. Now AI is easier. Wrong, but easier. And who needs right when you can have easier?
In 3 years, everyone will be dumber due to AI. People will forget how to do crap for themselves and just become lemmings.
 

MSU158

All-Conference
Nov 20, 2014
1,365
3,644
113
I can only think of the one top 10 you mentioned, Knox, and to be honest Knox seemingly gets bonuses by everyone who's near the top of the rankings... I will say a true freshman getting bonus over the likes of Braxton Brown, Dylan Shawver, Luke Willochell, Ethan Bergenic and Sean Spidle isn't nothing. It's not Jason Nolf or Bo Nickal but it also isn't Beau Bartlett. The tools and talent for him to open it up and score a lot of points are there. Whether that ever comes to fruition is unclear. I sure hope it does.
I wasn’t knocking him in any way. Blaze is legit. However, someone picking him to major someone as good as Crookham, when he consistently had very close matches with the top guys, NEEDED to be properly addressed…
 

Trapper85

Senior
Jun 22, 2020
211
752
93
In 3 years, everyone will be dumber due to AI. People will forget how to do crap for themselves and just become lemmings.
Been largely true for decades prior to AI. If I had a nickel for every wrong thing I've heard on social media or in the local coffee shop...... I'm sure my nteenth neanderthal great grandpa got lots of bad info in the cave too, perhaps why he became lion **** ..... Difference with AI (and email, social media...) is just that people are now making money off 'information'. The problem, then and now, is too many people are lazy, distracted, lack objectivity and critical thinking skills, and so on. Heck, many people accept an AI answer only if it agrees with their thoughts/beliefs, reject it otherwise. Has nothing to do with the accuracy of the AI answer.

It's great for some tasks/topics, sometimes helpful in others, and useless for some. So kind of like human minds.......

Ok, off my soap box.
 

Nashville_Hawk

All-Conference
Dec 31, 2015
762
2,021
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It is the biggest reason for the gap that PSU currently has. It has been happening for years.

125: Lilledahl = 54%, Peterson = 13%
133: Blaze = 71%, Ayala = 39%
141: Davis = 43%, Bailey 20%
149: Van Ness = 74%, Block 31%
157: Duke = 70%, Williams 20%/Voinovich 22%
165: Mesenbrink = 96%, Caliendo = 63%
174: Haines = 78%, Kennedy = 39%
184: Welsh = 54%, Ferrari = 21%
197: Barr = 96%, Arnold = 25%
285: Mirasola = 39%, Kueter = 0%
Sure would like to see us turn the corner but don’t see it happening under TNT. But I’m still hoping! LOL
 

mvattivo

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2005
423
2,047
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I wasn’t knocking him in any way. Blaze is legit. However, someone picking him to major someone as good as Crookham, when he consistently had very close matches with the top guys, NEEDED to be properly addressed…

Here's the thing though. You were addressing me. I did not agree that he would major Crookham. I simply said that his suggestion that Blaze was not an offensive wrestler was not based on statistical facts.
 

MSU158

All-Conference
Nov 20, 2014
1,365
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Here's the thing though. You were addressing me. I did not agree that he would major Crookham. I simply said that his suggestion that Blaze was not an offensive wrestler was not based on statistical facts.
And yet you were replying to someone that was directly replying to the person that did. It was a chain that started with a predicted major over Crookham. My point was not that Blaze doesn’t destroy clearly lesser competition. It was simply that he, so far, has yet to do it to top 20 competition, excepting Knox.

Digging even deeper, he pretty much relied on superior defense and positioning against top competition, making it even less likely that he would major Crookham.

I know you guys simply can’t accept anything that portrays a PSU guy in anything less than perfect light. But, Blaze simply has YET to show high paced offense against top competition. That doesn’t mean that he can’t win a super stacked weight. In fact, I wouldn’t pick anyone over him. I just wouldn’t expect him to be lighting up the scoreboard against his main competition…
 

mvattivo

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2005
423
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And yet you were replying to someone that was directly replying to the person that did. It was a chain that started with a predicted major over Crookham. My point was not that Blaze doesn’t destroy clearly lesser competition. It was simply that he, so far, has yet to do it to top 20 competition, excepting Knox.

Digging even deeper, he pretty much relied on superior defense and positioning against top competition, making it even less likely that he would major Crookham.

I know you guys simply can’t accept anything that portrays a PSU guy in anything less than perfect light. But, Blaze simply has YET to show high paced offense against top competition. That doesn’t mean that he can’t win a super stacked weight. In fact, I wouldn’t pick anyone over him. I just wouldn’t expect him to be lighting up the scoreboard against his main competition…

It's pretty simple, we were both arguing different points. No harm, no foul.
 

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,360
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I wasn’t knocking him in any way. Blaze is legit. However, someone picking him to major someone as good as Crookham, when he consistently had very close matches with the top guys, NEEDED to be properly addressed…
Ya I don't see him bonusing a healthy Crookham. I could see him majoring a rusty and not 100% Crookham. Which, at this point thinking we'll see a full healthy crookham in January is probably just as wild as thinking Blaze bonuses him.
 

MSU158

All-Conference
Nov 20, 2014
1,365
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Some good information put out in this thread. I learned that "offensive dynamos" Blaze and Lilledahl more than doubled or almost doubled the bonus rate of Iowa's highest returning bonus point scorer.
All you PSU slappies know DAMN WELL what he meant.... When Blaze wrestled any AA contender, excepting Knox(whom even one of your brethren noticed wrestled so wide open he lost by MD, or worse, 7 of his 8 losses), he lost 5-0, lost 3-2, won 5-3. won 4-1(OT), won 3-2(OT), won 5-1, and won 4-2. He is a GREAT wrestler, but his best skillset is positioning and defense and he absolutely wrestled that way against the better opponents he faced.

As far as Lilledahl goes, his NCAA run was 11-2, 4-2, 2-1(OT), 8-3 and 2-1. I am not sure you run away from that excited to expect bonus against legit competition...even at B1G's he won 8-3, 11-3 and 4-1(OT).

Finally, when comparing bonus rates of PSU vs Iowa, it is ONLY fair to look at the schedules outside of the B1G and NCAA's. Iowa wrestled a BRUTAL schedule. There is NO denying that. While Iowa wrestled Missouri, Illinois, OkState and tOSU, Penn State wrestled Oklahoma and the Black Knight Invitational. Iowa followed that right up with Pitt and ISU, while PSU wrestled Drexel and FINALLY a decent Lehigh squad. After that PSU wrestled Wyoming, NDSU and Stanford to close out their non-conference season.


Make NO MISTAKE, PSU was head and shoulders above Iowa this past season. The teams were not remotely close. However, their SCHEDULE is a HUGE reason why they were SO FAR ahead in bonus percentage. If the teams traded wrestling OkState TWICE for Drexel and Princeton, the bonus rate gap INEVITABLY shrinks. Let alone wrestling tOSU twice...
 

mvattivo

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2005
423
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All you PSU slappies know DAMN WELL what he meant.... When Blaze wrestled any AA contender, excepting Knox(whom even one of your brethren noticed wrestled so wide open he lost by MD, or worse, 7 of his 8 losses), he lost 5-0, lost 3-2, won 5-3. won 4-1(OT), won 3-2(OT), won 5-1, and won 4-2. He is a GREAT wrestler, but his best skillset is positioning and defense and he absolutely wrestled that way against the better opponents he faced.

As far as Lilledahl goes, his NCAA run was 11-2, 4-2, 2-1(OT), 8-3 and 2-1. I am not sure you run away from that excited to expect bonus against legit competition...even at B1G's he won 8-3, 11-3 and 4-1(OT).

Finally, when comparing bonus rates of PSU vs Iowa, it is ONLY fair to look at the schedules outside of the B1G and NCAA's. Iowa wrestled a BRUTAL schedule. There is NO denying that. While Iowa wrestled Missouri, Illinois, OkState and tOSU, Penn State wrestled Oklahoma and the Black Knight Invitational. Iowa followed that right up with Pitt and ISU, while PSU wrestled Drexel and FINALLY a decent Lehigh squad. After that PSU wrestled Wyoming, NDSU and Stanford to close out their non-conference season.


Make NO MISTAKE, PSU was head and shoulders above Iowa this past season. The teams were not remotely close. However, their SCHEDULE is a HUGE reason why they were SO FAR ahead in bonus percentage. If the teams traded wrestling OkState TWICE for Drexel and Princeton, the bonus rate gap INEVITABLY shrinks. Let alone wrestling tOSU twice...

Good points. What do you think I will find if I investigate which team scores the most bonus points over the last several BIG's and NCAA's, since the competition is tougher? We both know what I will find.
 

sdvike

All-Conference
Feb 23, 2016
1,087
2,376
113
Good points. What do you think I will find if I investigate which team scores the most bonus points over the last several BIG's and NCAA's, since the competition is tougher? We both know what I will find.
Obviously the seed would be the determinate. Only way to really see the gap is by common opponents.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
2,024
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All you PSU slappies know DAMN WELL what he meant.... When Blaze wrestled any AA contender, excepting Knox(whom even one of your brethren noticed wrestled so wide open he lost by MD, or worse, 7 of his 8 losses), he lost 5-0, lost 3-2, won 5-3. won 4-1(OT), won 3-2(OT), won 5-1, and won 4-2. He is a GREAT wrestler, but his best skillset is positioning and defense and he absolutely wrestled that way against the better opponents he faced.

As far as Lilledahl goes, his NCAA run was 11-2, 4-2, 2-1(OT), 8-3 and 2-1. I am not sure you run away from that excited to expect bonus against legit competition...even at B1G's he won 8-3, 11-3 and 4-1(OT).

Finally, when comparing bonus rates of PSU vs Iowa, it is ONLY fair to look at the schedules outside of the B1G and NCAA's. Iowa wrestled a BRUTAL schedule. There is NO denying that. While Iowa wrestled Missouri, Illinois, OkState and tOSU, Penn State wrestled Oklahoma and the Black Knight Invitational. Iowa followed that right up with Pitt and ISU, while PSU wrestled Drexel and FINALLY a decent Lehigh squad. After that PSU wrestled Wyoming, NDSU and Stanford to close out their non-conference season.


Make NO MISTAKE, PSU was head and shoulders above Iowa this past season. The teams were not remotely close. However, their SCHEDULE is a HUGE reason why they were SO FAR ahead in bonus percentage. If the teams traded wrestling OkState TWICE for Drexel and Princeton, the bonus rate gap INEVITABLY shrinks. Let alone wrestling tOSU twice...
Schedule is not a huge reason why PSU is so far ahead in bonus point percentage. Iowa and PSU had four common Big Ten dual opponents last year - each other, Nebraska, Michigan, and Ohio State. By any measure these are the four toughest teams in the conference. PSU had 18 bonus point wins in the 40 matches (45%). Iowa had 4 bonus point wins in the 40 matches (10%).
 

Jacob1one!

Sophomore
Aug 4, 2022
38
100
33
Not necessary, early consolation matches are way easier than the championship side.

I would bet (too lazy to research) that in those tourneys all PSU opponents on aggregate are seeded higher than all Iowa opponents.
 

PUR158

All-Conference
Feb 11, 2025
453
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All you PSU slappies know DAMN WELL what he meant.... When Blaze wrestled any AA contender, excepting Knox(whom even one of your brethren noticed wrestled so wide open he lost by MD, or worse, 7 of his 8 losses), he lost 5-0, lost 3-2, won 5-3. won 4-1(OT), won 3-2(OT), won 5-1, and won 4-2. He is a GREAT wrestler, but his best skillset is positioning and defense and he absolutely wrestled that way against the better opponents he faced.

As far as Lilledahl goes, his NCAA run was 11-2, 4-2, 2-1(OT), 8-3 and 2-1. I am not sure you run away from that excited to expect bonus against legit competition...even at B1G's he won 8-3, 11-3 and 4-1(OT).

Finally, when comparing bonus rates of PSU vs Iowa, it is ONLY fair to look at the schedules outside of the B1G and NCAA's. Iowa wrestled a BRUTAL schedule. There is NO denying that. While Iowa wrestled Missouri, Illinois, OkState and tOSU, Penn State wrestled Oklahoma and the Black Knight Invitational. Iowa followed that right up with Pitt and ISU, while PSU wrestled Drexel and FINALLY a decent Lehigh squad. After that PSU wrestled Wyoming, NDSU and Stanford to close out their non-conference season.


Make NO MISTAKE, PSU was head and shoulders above Iowa this past season. The teams were not remotely close. However, their SCHEDULE is a HUGE reason why they were SO FAR ahead in bonus percentage. If the teams traded wrestling OkState TWICE for Drexel and Princeton, the bonus rate gap INEVITABLY shrinks. Let alone wrestling tOSU twice...
Good to have you back, I trust you are rested for the season to come.

Agreed, schedule does play a part. In particular I was just looking at the Iowa vs Bellarmine match from this past year. With a full lineup, Iowa managed bonus points in 50% of their matches, against Bellarmine.
 
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