So, Iran is now refusing to officially meet with the United States to discuss peace plans

RagnarLothbrok

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Jun 11, 2025
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This is very odd behavior for a country who has been totally decimated by war and has been groveling day and night before Mango Mussolini to reach an agreement. What’s going on here? Is Iran overplaying their hand, thinking Hormuz is a bigger trump card (no pun intended) than it really is? Can someone square this circle for us mere mortals?

Right now, I am tempted to think Iran is going to continue to f#ck with us until the US is forced to…? Take over by force and control the Strait from here on out? Does anyone see another more palatable alternative? I don’t care how many “in principle” agreements they make. Iran cannot be trusted. At all. On top of that, it seems pretty clear Iran believes they have us by the balls with the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.

Is that where this is headed? What does the United States taking over Hormuz look like logistically? TIA

 

Ktrain1969

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This is very odd behavior for a country who has been totally decimated by war and has been groveling day and night before Mango Mussolini to reach an agreement. What’s going on here? Is Iran overplaying their hand, thinking Hormuz is a bigger trump card (no pun intended) than it really is? Can someone square this circle for us mere mortals?

Right now, I am tempted to think Iran is going to continue to f#ck with us until the US is forced to…? Take over by force and control the Strait from here on out? Does anyone see another more palatable alternative? I don’t care how many “in principle” agreements they make. Iran cannot be trusted. At all. On top of that, it seems pretty clear Iran believes they have us by the balls with the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.

Is that where this is headed? What does the United States taking over Hormuz look like logistically? TIA

It's time for Trump to prove he's not a puss.y. through and through.
 
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hawkeyetraveler

Heisman
Aug 10, 2010
5,609
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This is very odd behavior for a country who has been totally decimated by war and has been groveling day and night before Mango Mussolini to reach an agreement. What’s going on here? Is Iran overplaying their hand, thinking Hormuz is a bigger trump card (no pun intended) than it really is? Can someone square this circle for us mere mortals?

Right now, I am tempted to think Iran is going to continue to f#ck with us until the US is forced to…? Take over by force and control the Strait from here on out? Does anyone see another more palatable alternative? I don’t care how many “in principle” agreements they make. Iran cannot be trusted. At all. On top of that, it seems pretty clear Iran believes they have us by the balls with the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.

Is that where this is headed? What does the United States taking over Hormuz look like logistically? TIA

It is a mistake, IMO, to ascribe one logical thought process to Iran at the moment. Leadership is clearly fractured - mostly because we killed two plus layers of their leadership. Even before our attack there was an intricate dance between the Mullahs/religious overlords, the military and the political establishment. Now? Sure we are talking to some senior folks, but I bet they have not fully concentrated power across all aspects of Iranian society.

Isolated shots at ships/bases are an obvious outcome when you lack true command and control and when you staff your military with death cultists who were taught “America is the great Satan” for 47 years.

I still say the best path is to simply walk away. Take the strategic loss. Going deeper/all out WILL be a disaster. You cannot change the regime, grab the uranium, or truly control the strait with air/sea power alone. You need troops on the ground. I guarantee there are Iranian IRGC forces who know they would die in that fight and yet for whom it is their deepest desire.

Iran is a WAY tougher nut to crack than Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam. They have more people, better weapons and all the mountain/cave systems of Afghanistan. They have watched the lessons of how Ukraine is winning against the Russians and they have been a major provider of drone capabilities to Russia as a response. The loss of American life and material would be significant and politically unpalatable beyond anything we saw in the Bush/Obama years.

If we know troops on the ground is untenable then our choice is to either negotiate without a good hand or just walk away. I say let the Middle East be a problem for people in the Middle East. Walk away, but keep put eye on the country and henceforth bomb any nuclear development into oblivion.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
25,441
24,196
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It is a mistake, IMO, to ascribe one logical thought process to Iran at the moment. Leadership is clearly fractured - mostly because we killed two plus layers of their leadership. Even before our attack there was an intricate dance between the Mullahs/religious overlords, the military and the political establishment. Now? Sure we are talking to some senior folks, but I bet they have not fully concentrated power across all aspects of Iranian society.

Isolated shots at ships/bases are an obvious outcome when you lack true command and control and when you staff your military with death cultists who were taught “America is the great Satan” for 47 years.

I still say the best path is to simply walk away. Take the strategic loss. Going deeper/all out WILL be a disaster. You cannot change the regime, grab the uranium, or truly control the strait with air/sea power alone. You need troops on the ground. I guarantee there are Iranian IRGC forces who know they would die in that fight and yet for whom it is their deepest desire.

Iran is a WAY tougher nut to crack than Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam. They have more people, better weapons and all the mountain/cave systems of Afghanistan. They have watched the lessons of how Ukraine is winning against the Russians and they have been a major provider of drone capabilities to Russia as a response. The loss of American life and material would be significant and politically unpalatable beyond anything we saw in the Bush/Obama years.

If we know troops on the ground is untenable then our choice is to either negotiate without a good hand or just walk away. I say let the Middle East be a problem for people in the Middle East. Walk away, but keep put eye on the country and henceforth bomb any nuclear development into oblivion.
Walking away would allow Iran to toll the strait of Hormuz. I don't view that as an acceptable option. I would stay IF there was a coalition to ensure the free passage of the strait. We did Europe a huge favor, so they can participate in helping the free flow of energy. If they don't want to participate, then i agree with you, full exit and let the chips fall where they may (as in get the **** out of NATO).

If we were to fully exit as is, it probably would hasten the bypassing of the strait. More painful short term, but probably healthier for the global economy long term.

Trump seemingly miscalculated. That's OK, but don't let one "mistake" cascade into others. I hope he heeds your advice and tries to distance ourselves as quickly as possible.
 
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Jfcarter3

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Aug 26, 2004
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Trump seemingly miscalculated. That's OK, but don't let one "mistake" cascade into others.
I am kind of proud of you while simultaneously being appalled by this statement. I’ll give the “seemingly” part a pass as it is actually blatantly obvious. But this little “miscalculation”, this slight international rounding error if you will has cost billions in funds, has decimated our munitions stock piles and has cost lives. To speak of it so flippantly is abhorrent.
 

Flie_rivals154594

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Nov 2, 2001
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That reminds me, I need to get my investments lined up for the bounce.
It is a mistake, IMO, to ascribe one logical thought process to Iran at the moment. Leadership is clearly fractured - mostly because we killed two plus layers of their leadership. Even before our attack there was an intricate dance between the Mullahs/religious overlords, the military and the political establishment. Now? Sure we are talking to some senior folks, but I bet they have not fully concentrated power across all aspects of Iranian society.

Isolated shots at ships/bases are an obvious outcome when you lack true command and control and when you staff your military with death cultists who were taught “America is the great Satan” for 47 years.

I still say the best path is to simply walk away. Take the strategic loss. Going deeper/all out WILL be a disaster. You cannot change the regime, grab the uranium, or truly control the strait with air/sea power alone. You need troops on the ground. I guarantee there are Iranian IRGC forces who know they would die in that fight and yet for whom it is their deepest desire.

Iran is a WAY tougher nut to crack than Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam. They have more people, better weapons and all the mountain/cave systems of Afghanistan. They have watched the lessons of how Ukraine is winning against the Russians and they have been a major provider of drone capabilities to Russia as a response. The loss of American life and material would be significant and politically unpalatable beyond anything we saw in the Bush/Obama years.

If we know troops on the ground is untenable then our choice is to either negotiate without a good hand or just walk away. I say let the Middle East be a problem for people in the Middle East. Walk away, but keep put eye on the country and henceforth bomb any nuclear development into oblivion.

If only we could have avoided this whole mess.

Nope, we will just roll in with shock and awe and bold declarations. Blow **** up and declare mission accomplished! It's not like we've done this before where we could have learned some tough lessons.
 

Riveting

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It is a mistake, IMO, to ascribe one logical thought process to Iran at the moment. Leadership is clearly fractured - mostly because we killed two plus layers of their leadership. Even before our attack there was an intricate dance between the Mullahs/religious overlords, the military and the political establishment. Now? Sure we are talking to some senior folks, but I bet they have not fully concentrated power across all aspects of Iranian society.

Isolated shots at ships/bases are an obvious outcome when you lack true command and control and when you staff your military with death cultists who were taught “America is the great Satan” for 47 years.

I still say the best path is to simply walk away. Take the strategic loss. Going deeper/all out WILL be a disaster. You cannot change the regime, grab the uranium, or truly control the strait with air/sea power alone. You need troops on the ground. I guarantee there are Iranian IRGC forces who know they would die in that fight and yet for whom it is their deepest desire.

Iran is a WAY tougher nut to crack than Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam. They have more people, better weapons and all the mountain/cave systems of Afghanistan. They have watched the lessons of how Ukraine is winning against the Russians and they have been a major provider of drone capabilities to Russia as a response. The loss of American life and material would be significant and politically unpalatable beyond anything we saw in the Bush/Obama years.

If we know troops on the ground is untenable then our choice is to either negotiate without a good hand or just walk away. I say let the Middle East be a problem for people in the Middle East. Walk away, but keep put eye on the country and henceforth bomb any nuclear development into oblivion.
In you scenario, where is the strategic loss since Iran is weaker and we are stronger?
 
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noleclone2

Heisman
May 3, 2015
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It is a mistake, IMO, to ascribe one logical thought process to Iran at the moment. Leadership is clearly fractured - mostly because we killed two plus layers of their leadership. Even before our attack there was an intricate dance between the Mullahs/religious overlords, the military and the political establishment. Now? Sure we are talking to some senior folks, but I bet they have not fully concentrated power across all aspects of Iranian society.

Isolated shots at ships/bases are an obvious outcome when you lack true command and control and when you staff your military with death cultists who were taught “America is the great Satan” for 47 years.

I still say the best path is to simply walk away. Take the strategic loss. Going deeper/all out WILL be a disaster. You cannot change the regime, grab the uranium, or truly control the strait with air/sea power alone. You need troops on the ground. I guarantee there are Iranian IRGC forces who know they would die in that fight and yet for whom it is their deepest desire.

Iran is a WAY tougher nut to crack than Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam. They have more people, better weapons and all the mountain/cave systems of Afghanistan. They have watched the lessons of how Ukraine is winning against the Russians and they have been a major provider of drone capabilities to Russia as a response. The loss of American life and material would be significant and politically unpalatable beyond anything we saw in the Bush/Obama years.

If we know troops on the ground is untenable then our choice is to either negotiate without a good hand or just walk away. I say let the Middle East be a problem for people in the Middle East. Walk away, but keep put eye on the country and henceforth bomb any nuclear development into oblivion.
All of which points to the fatal flaw of the ill conceived surprise attack with no case made to the public. It was bound to fail if no regime change occurred and they were so sloppy they killed everyone we could have worked with.
 

hawkeyetraveler

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Aug 10, 2010
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In you scenario, where is the strategic loss since Iran is weaker and we are stronger?
In my scenario we are no longer policing Iran’s access to global markets. They will have unfettered access to sell their oil to whomever wants to buy it. That money will reconstitute them into a stronger regional power than they were before. They are weaker militarily in the short term, but stronger economically in the mid to long term.

We will have created a massive issue for our historic allies who will try to find a way to extract a price for our strategic missteps in Iran. I don’t see how you can think we are stronger on the global stage as a result. On a relative basis we likely emerge weaker vis a vis foreign trade, the dollar denominated world economy and foreign affairs.

So while we are “stronger” than Iran on an absolute basis, our relative strength has weakened and theirs will grow with their oil money.

It’s a strategic loss. It’s not existential, but it is a loss. Accept it and move on without getting sucked deeper into the Iranian quagmire.
 

WDDT

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They are ****** and they don't want to admit it. Their whole game was doing what they had done before and the nuclear site visits are a non negotiable.
 
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hawkeyetraveler

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Aug 10, 2010
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All of which points to the fatal flaw of the ill conceived surprise attack with no case made to the public. It was bound to fail if no regime change occurred and they were so sloppy they killed everyone we could have worked with.
Yep. Walk away. Then vote every damn supporter of this war out of office as penance for their sins.
 

hawkeyetraveler

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Aug 10, 2010
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Didnt see you as a big Khamenei guy....
Weird leap whiskey. Where did you read I support Iran?

It was a mistake starting this war, it would be a worse one to compound that mistake by continuing it. Realistically we cannot stop Iranian crazies from taking drone pot shots at super tankers without troops on the ground. And troops on the ground will be politically untenable.

Iran is a sunk cost. Accept it and move on with the stipulation that any Iranian nuclear development will be subject to severe lethal force.
 

Riveting

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In my scenario we are no longer policing Iran’s access to global markets. They will have unfettered access to sell their oil to whomever wants to buy it. That money will reconstitute them into a stronger regional power than they were before. They are weaker militarily in the short term, but stronger economically in the mid to long term.

We will have created a massive issue for our historic allies who will try to find a way to extract a price for our strategic missteps in Iran. I don’t see how you can think we are stronger on the global stage as a result. On a relative basis we likely emerge weaker vis a vis foreign trade, the dollar denominated world economy and foreign affairs.

So while we are “stronger” than Iran on an absolute basis, our relative strength has weakened and theirs will grow with their oil money.

It’s a strategic loss. It’s not existential, but it is a loss. Accept it and move on without getting sucked deeper into the Iranian quagmire.
In your scenario, the sanctions et al will be re-imposed on Iran without doubt, so they will not have unfettered access to sell their oil.

At the same time, customers are and will continue to look for alternatives to buying from Iran - and Gulf producers are and will continue to develop ways to avoid the Strait.

Iran will decline in power over time, while we will only get stronger (assuming no appeasement dem president in 2028) with more oil sales, better drone and antidrone weapons and other weapons, etc.
 

WDDT

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Jan 3, 2023
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Weird leap whiskey. Where did you read I support Iran?

It was a mistake starting this war, it would be a worse one to compound that mistake by continuing it. Realistically we cannot stop Iranian crazies from taking drone pot shots at super tankers without troops on the ground. And troops on the ground will be politically untenable.

Iran is a sunk cost. Accept it and move on with the stipulation that any Iranian nuclear development will be subject to severe lethal force.
I feel like we are now to the 3rd or 4th juncture where you have said some variant of "there is no way to do it without boots on the ground" and yet we continue to make progress. To walk away is to accept the funding of terrorism. You are going to see another run of dead Iranian leaders LONG before that.
 
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hawkeyetraveler

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In your scenario, the sanctions et al will be re-imposed on Iran without doubt, so they will not have unfettered access to sell their oil.

At the same time, customers are and will continue to look for alternatives to buying from Iran - and Gulf producers are and will continue to develop ways to avoid the Strait.

Iran will decline in power over time, while we will only get stronger (assuming no appeasement dem president in 2028) with more oil sales, better drone and antidrone weapons and other weapons, etc.
Spin it however you want, I see it as a loss, but honestly as long as America walks away from the ME I’m happy if you wrongly see it as a victory 😜.

I’m pragmatic like that.
 

hawkeyetraveler

Heisman
Aug 10, 2010
5,609
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I feel like we are now to the 3rd or 4th juncture where you have said some variant of "there is no way to do it without boots on the ground" and yet we continue to make progress. To walk away is to accept the funding of terrorism. You are going to see another run of dead Iranian leaders LONG before that.
And you are still deluded thinking we can regime change and get everything we want with air power alone. I guess we will agree to disagree and I will hope like hell I’m wrong and you are right.
 

lucas80

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Jan 30, 2008
13,078
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The US delegation is being led by a couple of nepo babies with divided interests. The president stepped into a mess that he cannot get himself out of. Iran is going to maximize their leverage, and get everything they can out of any deal. They will string this along until they see no more value in prolonging things.
 

hawkeyetraveler

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Aug 10, 2010
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Pray for surf. 😉
LOL, I literally thought to myself…how long will it take to see the surf comment 😜

 
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baltimorened

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May 29, 2001
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And you are still deluded thinking we can regime change and get everything we want with air power alone. I guess we will agree to disagree and I will hope like hell I’m wrong and you are right.
nope, needed boots on the ground before and still need boots on the ground. As I've posted, I'd be surprised (although the way this has gone since the cease fire, nothing surprises me) I'd be surprised if we don't have special ops running around in IRAN now.
 

RagnarLothbrok

Heisman
Jun 11, 2025
5,417
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It is a mistake, IMO, to ascribe one logical thought process to Iran at the moment. Leadership is clearly fractured - mostly because we killed two plus layers of their leadership. Even before our attack there was an intricate dance between the Mullahs/religious overlords, the military and the political establishment. Now? Sure we are talking to some senior folks, but I bet they have not fully concentrated power across all aspects of Iranian society.

Isolated shots at ships/bases are an obvious outcome when you lack true command and control and when you staff your military with death cultists who were taught “America is the great Satan” for 47 years.

I still say the best path is to simply walk away. Take the strategic loss. Going deeper/all out WILL be a disaster. You cannot change the regime, grab the uranium, or truly control the strait with air/sea power alone. You need troops on the ground. I guarantee there are Iranian IRGC forces who know they would die in that fight and yet for whom it is their deepest desire.

Iran is a WAY tougher nut to crack than Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam. They have more people, better weapons and all the mountain/cave systems of Afghanistan. They have watched the lessons of how Ukraine is winning against the Russians and they have been a major provider of drone capabilities to Russia as a response. The loss of American life and material would be significant and politically unpalatable beyond anything we saw in the Bush/Obama years.

If we know troops on the ground is untenable then our choice is to either negotiate without a good hand or just walk away. I say let the Middle East be a problem for people in the Middle East. Walk away, but keep put eye on the country and henceforth bomb any nuclear development into oblivion.
Your uncommon clarity of thinking is second to none.

And you nailed the point I was tacitly making from the beginning: Rushing to war without a serious plan for after all the sh*t is blown up is the mother of all f#ck-ups. We saw this play out because of Dick Cheney’s haste in going to war, and we are certainly seeing that transpire today.

You cannot control the Strait of Hormuz without boots on the ground to babysit.

This is yet another example of why competency matters and why elections have consequences. We can, however, take solace in knowing the 3% of Americans who actually believe chix with dix should compete in girls sports have been dunked on and all those evil, hardworking Haitians in Ohio will soom GTFO and return to their shith*le country. Oh, and as an added bonus, Texas school children will now be required by law to learn selective parts of the Bible that reinforce America’s greatness in rejecting f@gs, foreigners, coloreds, and libtards. 😉




There's a black man, with a black cat
Living in a black neighbourhood.
He's got an interstate running through his front yard
Ya know he thinks, he's got it so good.
And there's a women, in the kitchen
Cleaning up the evenin' slop.
And he looks at her and says
'Hey darlin' I remember when you could stop a clock.'

CHORUS
Oh but ain't that America for you and me.
Ain't that America something to see baby
Ain't that America home of the free
Little pinks houses for you and me.

There's a young man, in a t-shirt
Listenin' to a rock n roll station.
He's got greasy hair, greasy smile
He says, "Lord this must be my destination."
'Cause they told me when I was younger
"Boy you're gonna be president."
But just like everything else those old crazy dreams
Just kinda came and went.

REPEAT CHORUS

Well there's people and more people
What do they know know know
Go to work in some high rise
And vacation down at the Gulf of Mexico
Ooh yeah
And ther's winners and there's losers
But they ain't no big deal
'Cause the simple man baby pays for the thrills, the bills,
the pills that kill
 

WDDT

Heisman
Jan 3, 2023
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LOL, I literally thought to myself…how long will it take to see the surf comment 😜

I hope you have been well sir, this too shall pass. There has been a clear divide on the narrative from the beginning. Fox/Trump could do no wrong and Msnow has been cheering home side losses and pumping iranian ******** since moment 1. ( Remember day 1 when I was watching them both and MSnow had asked "how is this going to fracture the republican party" no less than a dozen times while others had actual coverage? )
 

WDDT

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Jan 3, 2023
10,909
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You actually had to edit this sh*t?

The Office Jim GIF


Never change, Whiskey Does Donald Trump. Never change. 😂
Damn rags.... sick burn.... periods bro......you should totally continue pissing your pants about a topic you had to reintroduce because your totally not an emotional b1tch tits bob.......


Lolz. Phag.
 

MuscoHawk

Heisman
Iowa Swarm member
Oct 6, 2005
4,565
13,544
113
Didnt see you as a big Khamenei guy....

Khamenei Jr. is still in power soooo… yeah, nothing gained there. In fact, it’s probably a worse situation as he’ll be driven by vengeance for the rest of his life.
 

WDDT

Heisman
Jan 3, 2023
10,909
11,716
113
Khamenei Jr. is still in power soooo… yeah, nothing gained there. In fact, it’s probably a worse situation as he’ll be driven by vengeance for the rest of his life.
One of my favorite narratives during all of this has been learning how the worst man on the planet dying is actually not that great because he was protecting us from worse people...
..
 
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Riveting

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Spin it however you want, I see it as a loss, but honestly as long as America walks away from the ME I’m happy if you wrongly see it as a victory 😜.

I’m pragmatic like that.
I don't see it as a 'victory' like in WWII (aka WW eleven by one notorious MN rep), but I see the balance of power definitely shifting in our favor and against Iran.

If the people rise up and somehow overthrow the brutal, corrupt regime, that would be a victory.
 

Riveting

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Your uncommon clarity of thinking is second to none.

And you nailed the point I was tacitly making from the beginning: Rushing to war without a serious plan for after all the sh*t is blown up is the mother of all f#ck-ups. We saw this play out because of Dick Cheney’s haste in going to war, and we are certainly seeing that transpire today.

You cannot control the Strait of Hormuz without boots on the ground to babysit.

This is yet another example of why competency matters and why elections have consequences. We can, however, take solace in knowing the 3% of Americans who actually believe chix with dix should compete in girls sports have been dunked on and all those evil, hardworking Haitians in Ohio will soom GTFO and return to their shith*le country. Oh, and as an added bonus, Texas school children will now be required by law to learn selective parts of the Bible that reinforce America’s greatness in rejecting f@gs, foreigners, coloreds, and libtards. 😉




There's a black man, with a black cat
Living in a black neighbourhood.
He's got an interstate running through his front yard
Ya know he thinks, he's got it so good.
And there's a women, in the kitchen
Cleaning up the evenin' slop.
And he looks at her and says
'Hey darlin' I remember when you could stop a clock.'

CHORUS
Oh but ain't that America for you and me.
Ain't that America something to see baby
Ain't that America home of the free
Little pinks houses for you and me.

There's a young man, in a t-shirt
Listenin' to a rock n roll station.
He's got greasy hair, greasy smile
He says, "Lord this must be my destination."
'Cause they told me when I was younger
"Boy you're gonna be president."
But just like everything else those old crazy dreams
Just kinda came and went.

REPEAT CHORUS

Well there's people and more people
What do they know know know
Go to work in some high rise
And vacation down at the Gulf of Mexico
Ooh yeah
And ther's winners and there's losers
But they ain't no big deal
'Cause the simple man baby pays for the thrills, the bills,
the pills that kill

Thanks for what you think are deep thoughts.
 

PalmettoTiger1

Heisman
Jan 24, 2009
12,845
12,731
113
This is very odd behavior for a country who has been totally decimated by war and has been groveling day and night before Mango Mussolini to reach an agreement. What’s going on here? Is Iran overplaying their hand, thinking Hormuz is a bigger trump card (no pun intended) than it really is? Can someone square this circle for us mere mortals?

Right now, I am tempted to think Iran is going to continue to f#ck with us until the US is forced to…? Take over by force and control the Strait from here on out? Does anyone see another more palatable alternative? I don’t care how many “in principle” agreements they make. Iran cannot be trusted. At all. On top of that, it seems pretty clear Iran believes they have us by the balls with the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.

Is that where this is headed? What does the United States taking over Hormuz look like logistically? TIA


BOMBS AWAY TO THE IRANIAN REGIME
 

r_desihawk

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i was under the impression that iranian political and military leadership as they exist are squirreled away and hiding in various pockets operating independently. is that true or not? also how is the country carrying on in terms of salaries and governance? is there any coverage on what's going on inside iran?